Archive

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Hunter Henry :: HUNT

(12/20/16) Hunter Henry has a bright future in the NFL. He may not have a ton of yards (435) on his 13 games this season, but the first-year TE has 7TDs. He clearly has a nose for the end zone and the trust of Phillip Rivers. The thing is, he is in a rotation currently and still producing big TD numbers, and the sharing situation is likely to change quite a bit in 2017 and beyond. If you’re trying see ahead of the curve and and find that next top 3-5 dynasty TE, Hunter Henry has that kind of ceiling/upside. He won’t be dirt cheap via trade, but his low yardage totals this year, and still-ongoing sharing situation, should have him way cheaper than he should be when all is said and done. Act now before his value climbs this off-season.

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Adrian Peterson :: AP

(12/16/16)

UPDATE: We’ve been saying it for weeks, but be sure Adrian Peterson isn’t on waiver wires. He is practicing this week, and work is he could play this week (Week 15), which is way, way ahead of schedule, something we’ve learned to accept from superman. Whether or not you should start him this very week is another matter, so get on our forums to discuss that vs your options!

ADD. ADD. ADD.

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Travis Kelce :: KELCE

(12/14/16) Travis Kelce has been on fire over the last handful of weeks. Five of his last seven games have been 100-yard outings, and his last 4 games look like this: 7/108, 8/101, 8/140 and 5/101. That’s four-straight 100-yard games from Kelce. Despite the huge numbers this year, he’s not being talked about in fantasy worlds like he should be. While his current dynasty owners will know he is playing great, poke around and see if you can acquire him in some sort of package deal. Buy him at less than top 1-3 dynasty TE value if you can. Again, I’m not suggesting his current dynasty owners will trade him dirt cheap, and not everyone trades to begin with… but, given he hasn’t scored many TDs this year, and given his fantasy buzz in general is not extreme, it’s worth looking into. He is absolutely looking like the future of the position as he enters his fourth NFL season in 2017.

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Jordan Howard :: HOWARD

(12/7/16) Jordan Howard is on the rise in all formats. He exploded in Week 13, rushing for 117 yards and 3TDs. While some might consider that outing a fluke given the weather conditions of the game, he has had other huge games this year… prior to Week 13, he had four games with over 100 yards rushing (in Week 8 alone, he rushed for 153 yards, 1TD and pulled in 49 yards on 4 receptions). In fact, if you take his last 9 games this year, which is essentially when he started to get starter carries, he is on pace for 1,350 yards, 28 receptions for 330 yards and 10 total TDs. Is he capable of being a top 5-10RB in 2017? Sure, but be careful buying him near that price. He has first-round upside, but should be bought more as a second-round type player. I know many of you might be thinking, “I can’t get him at that value!” This might be true, and this means the window for buying in those leagues has closed. If you can make a deal more complex, maybe a 2-for-2 or a 3-for-3, you might be able to lessen his upside a bit, but he is just one of those players you can’t acquire in every league you are in. A good example of an existing dynasty league trade would be: Matt Ryan, Dez Bryant, Mark Ingram or maybe even a LeSean McCoy. Again, you may not land him for these types of players in all leagues. However, this is the good value territory. If you are drafting in a new dynasty league this upcoming season, target him right around the top 8-12RB range. If he goes before that range of players, that means other solid players will fall that should not. In redraft, I see this exactly the same. Get on our forums and talk about Howard’s rising ADP and value!

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Checkout this 3-minute Audio Show Clip where we discuss our Week 11 Buy-Low/Sell-High Players, which include
Derrick Henry, Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Devonta Freeman, Jay Ajayi, LeGarrette Blount, Spencer Ware, Matt Forte, Dion Lewis

Play Week 12 Buys/Sells
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Malcolm Mitchell :: MITCH

(11/22/16) Malcolm Mitchell is kind of unknown still in many fantasy circles. He is a rookie wide receiver that is earning big praise by his elite passer, Tom Brady. He pulled in 4 passes for 98 yards and 1TD in Week 11. It was just one game, but when your star quarterback says the following, it’s something to take seriously in dynasty: “I’ve just been impressed with him since the day he came in and his personality is infectious,” Brady said. “He’s very smart. I can’t say enough good things about him and what he’s accomplished, getting his opportunity and taking advantage of it.” Chris Hogan may not surrender his job easily when he returns, but he is out and Mitchell is taking advantage. All dynasty owners should grab this guy now and evaluate later. He may not amount to much in the future, but gems rise all the time. He at least has a shot at being one of those gems.

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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CJ Prosise :: CJPRO

(11/19/16) This kid could be a rising star, folks. It’s a bit too late to catch anyone off guard in dynasty, and even in redraft… not many are going to give this guy up for anything close to decent value, as he is on the rise and everyone kind of knows it. That said, some of you may be considering selling him. Or, you may have keeper decisions to make. Or, you have keeper trades to make, moves where you can get him from an owner that won’t have room to keep him, or maybe you’re on the other side of that coin. Regardless of whether or not it’s hard to acquire a player in the current trade climate for that player, it’s still important to talk about that player if that player in question is about to see a huge bump in fantasy value. All this said, don’t NOT make trade offers for him just because it looks to be an uphill battle… as I always say, if you complicate a trade offer by making it a multi-player deal, you can sometimes dilute the value/buzz of that player you’re really after by making them a side piece in the deal. So, what do I think of CJ Prosise moving forward in 2016? And, what do I think of him in dynasty? Well, I love the situation IF Seattle plans to feed him the rock. Will they? I think so. Sure, Thomas Rawls could be a big factor, but that’s 50/50 at best, and that’s IF he stays healthy. I think that Prosise is such an impressive receiving back (proven by his 7 receptions for 87 yards last week), his multi-use ability will keep him in the starting line-up all year long. His 3.9 yards-per-carry average last week wasn’t super-impressive (17 rushes for 66 yards), and he is only averaging 3.7 yards-per-carry on the year (only 26 carries total, though), but it’s tough to judge a player on 26 total rushes, and again, the bottom line is he has monster PPR value if given starter touches. If you own him, he is absolutely flex-worthy, and he has more value in some cases. He should be started in almost all formats. If you don’t have room to start him in let’s say redraft, sell-high, but only high. As for the future, I think it’s 50/50 this works out for the long-term, but I will say that I really like his skill set and I have zero doubt he is at least a RB2 in fantasy (for the future) if getting starter carries/touches.

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Adrian Peterson :: AP

(11/18/16) First off, Adrian Peterson (knee) may not play again during the regular NFL season, or prior to week 17. However, there is nothing on record suggesting that it is out of the question. AP has started light running and there is some buzz going around that he could be back at some point in December, and Minnesota’s record and playoff hunt could have a lot to do with when he hits the field. Bottom line, pick him up in deeper leagues IF you have spots or a spot to burn on your roster. Not every league has small large enough rosters, so only make this move if it makes sense for your team. Not sure if it makes sense? Get on our forums and ask away!

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Checkout this 3-minute Audio Show Clip where we discuss our Week 11 Buy-Low/Sell-High Players, which include

Spencer Ware (West)
DeAndre Hopkins
Amari Cooper
Devonta Freeman
Tom Brady
Matt Ryan
LeGarrette Blount
Matt Forte
LeSean McCoy
Dez Bryant

Listen to Week 11 Buys/Sells!

Checkout this 6-minute Audio Show Clip where we discuss our Week 10 Buy-Low/Sell-High Players, which include
Ben Roethlisberger
Devonta Freeman
Melvin Gordon
Matt Ryan
Todd Gurley
Spencer Ware
Antonio Brown
DeAndre Hopkins
Dez Bryant
Brandin Cooks

Week 10 Buy Lows/Sell Highs
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Devonta Freeman :: FREE

(11/2/16) While his arrow/value isn’t quite sinking all that much, the runner was suppose to go nuts last week with Tevin Coleman out with injury. That alone, Freeman somewhat disappointing in the yardage department, could have his current owners willing to entertain merely solid-type value in return for Freeman. Meaning, you won’t land him cheap, or even low, but you won’t have to overpay, so his ceiling value and upside is still good at the acquisition value. What kind of value should you attempt to pay for Freeman. Well, first off, the only secure move is to get both Freeman and Coleman, and it wouldn’t be crazy to trade strong second-round value for the duo. Even high-end second-round equivalent-type value. That’s still a high cost, but it’s not so high that the duo can’t earn that value back and more. I think Freeman still has top 5RB appeal (especially with Coleman handcuffed). All by himself, Freeman still has this kind of upside, but I’d almost only recommend such a move if your team is in need of a spark/change to make the playoffs. So, in summary, I have my top 5RBs moving forward ranked liked this:

1. – Le’veon Bell
2. – David Johnson
2. – Ezekiel Elliott
4. – Demarco Murray (with Henry cuffed)
5. (tied) – Devonta Freeman (with Coleman cuffed)
5. (tied) – Melvin Gordon
5. (tied) – Todd Gurley

As you can see, I have Freeman tied in that 5th-ranked range for running backs moving forward in 2016. I love Melvin Gordon, and without handcuffs being owned, he might rank above Freeman, however, the handcuffs for both Murray (Henry) and Freeman (Coleman) are so good, and the situations are just as good, it makes both duos a bit safer moving forward. So, another angle to buying low on Freeman (with the handcuff) is if you own either Murray (without the handcuff) or Gordon, then you could potentially trade into the Atlanta duo RB situation and get an additional upgrade elsewhere within your lineup. That said, I would recommend trying to use a couple players with lover values than a stud like Gordon… try using a Jay Ajayi-type player to land the Atlanta duo rushing crew.

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Derrick Henry :: HENRY

(11/2/16) Let me start again by saying not many were higher on the DeMarco Murray/Derrick Henry duo than I was entering August drafts, as I had the duo on the 2016 Bold Predictions List as a top 5-10RB… and, I still love the duo moving forward. But, for those leagues where you don’t own either, and both runners are on different rosters in your league, take a stab at just buying Derrick Henry. Murray owners had a scare in Week 8, as he hurt his toe, and if the MRI didn’t come back negative, the current Henry owner in your league wouldn’t have traded him for anything. However, when a player like Henry is stashed on someone’s roster, and that owner gets a false hope about that player rising into the lineup, they tend to listen to trade offers more once the news shakes out that the ‘stash’ won’t actually get any starts. Now, not every Henry-only owner will trade him, some will still wait for his opportunity, as they might predict eventual injury for Murray, which is smart (hence why I stressed that the duo is the top 5-10RB lock, and owning just Murray has risk). Examine the roster of the owner in your league that just owns Henry all by himself. See if that owner has any holes or injuries or huge bye week problems. You might be surprised how cheaply you can get Henry if that owner is more worried about making the playoffs than waiting on a runner that needs injury to thrive. Just know, the reason I say to get Henry is that if Murray gets hurt, Henry would produce top 5-10RB numbers in my opinion. Murray is an aggressive runner that is overworked (and he was abused in Dallas); injury is a real possibility. If you own Murray only and you are reading this, you better go get Henry as well (even more so).

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Todd Gurley :: GURLY

(10/26/16) The Rams rusher is not playing like a top 1-3 overall pick, and most drafted him there. He isn’t even playing like a RB1 in fantasy, which is still hard to accept. If you need a spark to make your playoffs, or were hit by injury and want to beef up for your playoff run, consider selling a player that is scoring high, maybe a combo of players kind of over-performing right now… offer both and get Gurley. I’ve seen people trade for Gurley using players that would rank in the 18-25 range overall if drafting today. That’s a good bet.

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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DeAndre Hopkins :: HOP

(10/26/16) He’s been on this list for a while, and that’s because he keeps struggling. It’s not him, it’s his passing situation. Keep in mind that this passing situation problem might not be a problem easily resolved this year, so there is risk; however, Hopkins could very easily bounce-back and be a top 1-4WR moving forward, and in many situations, that’s a risk worth taking. Buy-low, though!!!!

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Jordy Nelson :: JORDY

(10/26/16) This is his second Stock Market write-up this week, but it’s a topic worth addressing again. He has had a huge game this year, it’s not like the guy has vanished all year… he had 6/101/2TDS in Week 3, and he started the season with 1, 1, 2 and 1TDs in his first four games this year. He has already had his bye, too, which is huge. Look, doubt him all you want, but GB was struggling in the passing game and the passing game is looking fixed. You tell me, is a guy with 5TDs already that is in one of the best passing games (potentially and at least upside wise) worth betting on when his passing attack looks ready to rumble?

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Amari Cooper :: COOP

(10/26/16) The guy likely ranks somewhere in the 9-11 range for all WRs in your league, yet many are suggesting in topics all over that he is far off of August expectations. Folks, he could have one single huge game this week and be back in the top 5 WRs in your league year to date. Buy-low, this thinking that he is a big fat disappointment should be taken advantage of in all leagues!

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Allen Robinson :: AROB

(10/26/16) I know, if you own him, you can’t get rid of him. Well, that’s why I write this. If someone else owns him in your league, they might part with him at high-end WR3-type value, or trade a strong flex for him. That’s a great risk worth taking. Maybe Blake Bortles doesn’t rebound this year. Still, losing, that all spells a lot of fourth-quarter passing. Wide receivers can still thrive in losing situations.

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Jordy Nelson :: JORDY

(10/22/16) I know, he has been one of the biggest busts over the last 2-3 weeks. His stat lines in the past three weeks: 4/38/1TD, 5/68/0TDs and 1/9/0TDs. That said, the guy still has 5TDs on the year, folks! On top of that, Aaron Rodgers and the entire passing game had been struggling up until this past Thursday night. And, while Nelson wasn’t apart of the bounce-back on Thursday night, he is a big-time buy-low candidate heading into Weeks 7-16. Is there risk? At the asking price of his current owners? Not really! The risk is baked in! This is a guy you can get at probably low-end WR2-type value, if not lower, yet he has WR1 appeal moving forward. If anyone thinks he can’t be a top 5-10WR moving forward, you’re letting a few weeks (mixed with a few good weeks, and he has had a few) cloud judgement. JORDY had 4TDs in the first three weeks and scored in all 5TDs on the year in the first four weeks. He has NOT slumped all year long. I even saw a couple “should I bench Jordy Nelson” topics on the forums recently. Wow. With ARod back to form this Thursday night, I’m buying all day long on this one! All day! I’m even taking stabs in dynasty even if he doesn’t have a grip of years left.

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Spencer Ware :: WARE

(10/22/16) Spencer Ware exploded in Week 6 (131 yards and 1TD on 24 carries), and many had the guy on the bench, as there was a general expectation in fantasy worlds that Jamaal Charles (ACL) was going to see an uptick in carries last week. Well, not only did Charles not get increased work last week, he is entering Week 7 with swelling in his knee and the questionable tag. Even if Charles plays Week 7, he clearly isn’t ready for full-time work, and on top of that, Ware is arguably the starter no matter what moving forward (for as long as he stays healthy). Ware is a must-start in Week 7 and has RB1 appeal against the Saints. If you have him, play him! He is “flow of game” proof given his involvement in both the passing and receiving game. If up, the Chiefs will feed him carries. If down, the team will target him in the passing game all the way to the last moment. Buy him. Start him. Enjoy!

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Blake Bortles / Allen Robinson :: BORT/AROB

(10/22/16) We have only a handful of HUGE buy-low players left heading into the remainder of the season. Of course, there are always buy-low opportunities in fantasy football, from Weeks 1-16. However, I’m talking about HUGE buy-low targets, like Amari Cooper down below, who I begged fantasy owners to buy-low while many doubted during his very slow start. Same thing can be said about Odell Beckham in Week 6 and Aaron Rodgers heading into this week, which again you can read about below. Well, Allen Robinson still has top 4-7WR appeal heading into Weeks 7-16. You may disagree, that would not surprise me, but his struggles have been tied to the struggles of Blake Bortles. I feel that Jacksonville and Bortles will get back on track stat-wise against Oakland this week, and even if they lose, they produce from a fantasy standpoint. Last week, Bortles got a win, and that was important. I think he gets things going against Oakland and has a top 5ish QB season from here on out (for Weeks 7-16). Bortles is a great buy-low at QB, and his current owner might have him benched by now, so if you have had QB issues, attack! He will be cheap! Allen Robinson was a high second-round pick this year, at least he was in many cases. I’d venture to say you can grab him well past value that would today equal 3-4 round value. That’s just how frustrated his owners likely are. Need a spark? Desperate for a mix-up in order to get some wins in your league? This duo is one of the best low-risk/high-reward duos in fantasy moving forward.

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Don Jackson / Ty Montgomery:: DON/TY

(10/20/16) Eddie Lacy is headed to IR as of this moment. He will require surgery and will be out at least 8 weeks, if not the season. The Packers will likely use Ty Montgomery a ton at both RB and WR in Week 7, and maybe moving forward in 2016. However, a few reports as of this afternoon are now suggesting that Don Jackson could be the main back for Thursday night’s Week 7 match-up against the Bears. He is a must-own right now, especially in dynasty. I was able to grab Don Jackson in three leagues just this very second, two were dynasty, so he is available in a ton of leagues still. Act now just in case Don is a gem. I still like Knile Davis, but this situation is very much up in the air for the future, and all players, from Don Jackson to Knile Davis (and even Ty Montgomery need to be considered for the long-term role).

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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DeAndre Hopkins :: DHOP

(10/19/16) Odell Beckham was extremely undervalued heading into last week, and he absolutely exploded for over 200 yards receiving and and 2TDs. He is now back in everyone’s overall top 5 moving forward. How quickly things change, eh? Same thing here, folks… for some reason, people feel DeAndre Hopkins isn’t going to rebound. Well, all I see is opportunity. Don’t worry about DHOP having just 1TD and one 70+ yard game over the last four games… instead take advantage of it. If you can trade for him at very high-end WR-type value, or even very low WR1-type value, go for it. This may not work so well in dynasty, but in redraft, it’s happening all over the place. Do not buy-high, you don’t have to, and buying low is the point here. In many cases, his owners are treating him very much like a 2nd-round fantasy talent. Tough match-ups are one reason he has struggled, things will surely turn around and I believe the turn around begins here in Week 7.

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Knile Davis :: KNILE

(10/19/16) The Packers traded for Chiefs RB Knile Davis on Tuesday and then news later in the afternoon suggested that Eddie Lacy will likely miss multiple weeks with his ankle. Ty Montgomery, who has experience at RB from college, could get more carries in Week 7 than anyone expects, and so could Cobb, but I’ve always loved Knile Davis, and if you remember back near two years ago, Knile was a Bold Prediction of mine that failed due to not being used. Talent has never been his problem. I love Knile in Green Bay, it’s a great situation. I just hope he gets the touches. If he does, he should thrive.

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Aaron Rodgers :: AROD

(10/18/16) The buy-low candidates have been pretty on the money so far this year, as we begged SleeperU owners to buy-low on Amari Cooper below during his string of mediocre outings (and people have short memories, there were forum topics where people were feeling he was bust-bound). We begged fantasy owners to buy-low on Devonta Freeman weeks ago, and last week we screamed from the rooftops to grab Odell Beckham before he climbed back into what now looks like everyone’s top 2-5 overall moving forward for 2016. Aaron Rodgers is no different. Folks, he’s a stud. I don’t care if he has struggled, he is 4TD-capable during any given game, and the most important thing to point out here is that he has all the time in the world to throw the ball. Some might consider that even more alarming, but what it says to me is that he can easily turn his scoring around, as his situation is still fantastic. Is he struggling? Sure. Does anyone truly know why? No. We can speculate all day long, but the truth is as simple as this… he has only played five games, one of which he had 4TDs, and in three games he still scored 2TDs, one of which he scored 3. Yeah, that’s right, his TDs so far this year, if you include his rushing: Week 1=3TDs, Week 2=2TDs, Week 3=4TDs, Week 4=bye, Week 5=2TDs and Week 6=1TD (his first single TD outing). Those having knee-jerk reactions need to take a step back and really look at these stats and not at accuracy (unless your league awards/subtracts for accuracy, but even then, I’m not worried moving forward). I’m buying low in absolutely every single league I currently don’t own AROD stock in. He has already had his bye, which is huge. This is one of the last truly-insane buy-low candidates for the rest of 2016. We have seen some HUGE names be able to be bought low, and we brought them all to you right here in the Fantasy Football Stock Market. This is the next big one, the one that can win leagues!

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Derrick Henry :: HENRY

(10/12/16) In fantasy football, the key to winning down the stretch is staying ahead of the curve. Of course, avoiding injury is huge, something that requires a mix of both skill and luck. However, predicting injury, or shall I say ‘anticipating’ injury, can also be a big skill in fantasy football. I love DeMarco Murray, and I went as far as to make DeMarco Murray/Derrick Henry one of my Top 10 Bold Predictions for 2016, but selling high isn’t a bad idea at all, but do so keeping Derrick Henry. I just made a redraft trade where I shipped off just Murray for Odell Beckham, but I kept Derrick Henry. This is a bold move to some, but at the same time I feel it’s very strategic. I honestly feel ODB will soon be back in everyone’s top 1-5WRs for the remainder of the season, and I think there is a good chance Murray gets banged up at some point this year. No one should count on injury, I’m not suggesting that, however, this is a creative way to take full advantage of Murray’s super-high value, and ODB’s silly-low value (a player that I honestly would draft in my top 5-6 overall if drafting for just Weeks 6-16). As for redraft situations where fantasy owners do not own either Murray or Henry, go try and get Henry all by himself. It will be extremely tough if the person that owns him has Murray, in fact it might be near impossible in many of those cases. However, if someone in redraft owns just Henry, they might even be worried about roster space right now, and might also have injuries and they might be looking to swap Henry’s roster spot out for a contributor… so, take full advantage, as I bet he can be had in those situations. In dynasty, some Henry owners might be extremely letdown that the runner hasn’t been involved thus far in 2016, and let’s be honest, Murray is looking awesome. This has to lower Henry’s dynasty value a touch, and while you can’t always make some owners make trades, some owners just refuse to trade, try in this case. Again, I will end by saying that there weren’t many higher on the Murray/Henry combo heading into this season, and I am still very much loving this duo… but, if in a jam and you need to make trades to get wins, the above is my thinking surrounding these two rushers. I own Murray/Henry in a number of leagues, and in some leagues I’ve shipped just Murray off for ODB or DeAndre Hopkins types, and in other leagues I preferred to keep my duo rushing crew and maintain that the duo is a fine high-end RB1 from here on out!

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Odell Beckham :: ODB

(10/10/16) Odell Beckham is one of the best buy-low candidates heading into Week 6. Just like we beat into the ground last week (and the week before, and the week before) that Amari Cooper was bound to bust loose, I have little doubt, if any, that Odell Beckham will be a top 1-4 fantasy WR moving forward. Now, you can’t buy him dirt cheap, but it appears some are considering him outside the top 12 overall moving forward, which screams opportunity. With only 1TD so far this year, coming this past week, it’s time to attack (in both redraft and dynasty). I will even suggest that ODB pulls in 10-12 touchdowns this year, and that’s with him only having 1TD through 5 weeks, which means I have him scoring over 1.0 TDs per game moving forward.

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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DeAndre Hopkins :: HOP

(10/10/16) DeAndre Hopkins is in the exact same scenario as ODB above, in that he is extremely under-performing so far this year. In the past three weeks, Hopkins hasn’t totaled over 56 yards and has just one TD. He has had bigger games than ODB prior to the last three weeks, but lately, he has been flat. Take full advantage. If drafting fresh today for just Weeks 6-16, I draft Hopkins in the top 6 overall. You heard me.. overall! I buy-low in all formats and I fully expect him to finish with double-digit scores and somewhere near 100+ receptions for 1,400 yards.

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Allen Robinson :: AROB

(10/10/16) Allen Robinson is in the same boat that Amari Cooper was… He still has yet to breakout, though, but he had a bye in Week 5. This is an important point, as he will be bye-free moving forward, and the Jags will have regrouped to get their passing attack back on track. I fully expect AROB to be a top 4-6WR moving forward, so buy-low and steal him away from owners still doubting his place in the top 4-6WRs..

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Dez Bryant :: DEZ

(10/10/16) Dez Bryant is loaded with risk, as his knee could be a big issue all year, or he could make things worse by playing on it too early. He could miss Week 6 and return after the team’s Week 7 bye. He could miss longer. Although, he could return fast. Much is up in the air, but his owners might be willing to sell him at value that makes the risk worth taking. Buy now before it’s too late and hope he gets back on the field quicker than expected. I wouldn’t recommend taking on a ton of risk, so ensure you are truly buying low, but some teams need a spark and are totaling too many losses and need some wins. Get creative. Get a bit bold. Just be smart.

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Jarvis Landry :: LAND

(10/10/16) Jarvis Landry is doubted big-time right now, which is kind of head-scratching. He has had a couple big games, and while I can understand concerns about Miami’s passing attack, the problem does not sit with Landry’s skill set or talent. However, in fantasy football, the situation surround a player is part of the package, so is there reason to be concerned that Landry won’t get enough targets to make plays? Sure, it’s possible, and that’s where the buy-low approach protects you. His decreased value, and we’re talking value rounds lower than his August ADP, the risk is low and the upside is huge. After a big week 2 (10/135/0TDs) and Week 3 (7/120/1TD), Landry cooled off in Weeks 4 (7/61/0TDs) and Week 5 (3/28/0TDs), and those past two weeks are all his fantasy owners are feeling. Take advantage and buy him as a low-end WR2 or lower, and expect sneaky-good low-end WR1 numbers moving forward. Like with all these buy-low players above, it’s all about truly buying low, not seeing a name we have listed and going out and buying that player at even fair market value. That’s not buying low.

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Jacquizz Rodgers :: QUIZZ

(10/8/16) Jacquizz Rodgers is looking set to start in Week 5, as both Charles Sims and Doug Martin are both looking doubtful. QUIZZ may not have long-term fantasy value, although anything is possible, he can certainly be a low-end RB2 or high-end flex this week if getting all the touches! He should be grabbed in most all leagues and started in situations where you need a high-risk/high-reward type play. Do a last minute news check on this one, though, just to make sure nothing has changed.

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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DeAndre Hopkins :: HOP

(10/8/16) Yes, the guy has been disappointing over the last two weeks (4/56/0TDs and 1/4/0TDs), but he dropped 5/54/1TD and 7/113/1TD in Weeks 1 and 2. Those are strong stats for the first two games, however, his two recent outings are having fantasy owners panicking in many leagues. I’ve seen people say things like “Do it!” to forum posts/topics where some fantasy owners want to send Hopkins packing for Jordy Nelson. I am NOT saying that Nelson can’t be as good as Hopkins moving forward (for 2016 only), however, the knee-jerk reactions after just four played games is a little out of control. Hopkins is easily a top 5WR for me moving forward. Easily. I think he can pull in 12+ TDs at season’s end, maybe even 100+ balls for 1,300-1,400 yards. I am buying low in redraft where possible, and I am doing my very best to take advantage of this early 2016 disappointment in dynasty. You won’t steal him away in dynasty, but you might be able to get him a half a tier below where you should if you offer up a WR near as good that might be playing better. I firmly believe that those panicking now and shipping Hopkins off in redraft like he isn’t an elite top 5WR will be sorry in a few weeks.

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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DeAndre Washington :: WASH

(10/5/16) DeAndre Washington is now set to start Week 5, as Latavius Murray (toe) is very questionable to play Week 5. Washington is not only a must-own right now, he very well might be the future in Oakland. The cons: He has never carried the ball more than 7 times in one game this year, which is his rookie year, but his yards-per-carry average is 6.4. In Week 4, he rushed the ball 5 times for 3 yards and pulled in 3 passes for 16, which is a great sign that he can funtion as a three-down back if called upon. I think the Raiders want someone to rise in this offense to help keep the passing game going strong, as teams will look to make the Raiders run the football in the coming weeks. And, I think they will successfully behind Washington, who stands 5-8, 204 pounds. Each year a player rises from low-type value and becomes a beast… I believe it could very well be one of DeAndre Washington, Wendell Smallwood or Jordan Howard!

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Amari Cooper :: COOP

(10/4/16) It’s only been 4 weeks, folks, and might I remind everyone that thinks Cooper can’t break loose from his slow start this year… he is entering his second NFL season. Most top 10WRs in fantasy football breakout before their third season, which use to be a wide receiver’s typical breakout season. I feel COOP is no different, and I think it isn’t a question of ‘if’ he breakouts out, it’s ‘when’ will he breakout? I know, I know, Michael Crabtree is pulling all kinds of targets, end zone looks, TDs, clutch passes… folks, it’s four weeks of football. Four! Not that this name is relevant at this point in his career, but Josh Gordon led all fantasy wide receivers in 2013 (87/1646/9TDs) and missed the first two games of the 2013 NFL season. On 14 games he was the top fantasy WR in the game! Again, ignore the name in Gordon, he has fallen off the fantasy map once again this year, but take in the point. While I can’t explain his slow start, I can tell you that I see elite in the kid, and with Derek Carr playing elite football, there is everything to like about Cooper moving forward. If you don’t own him in redraft or dynasty, buy-low and buy now!

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Wendell Smallwood :: WOOD

(10/4/16) Wendell Smallwood, with his new aka via his stock symbol (WOOD), is coming off a bye week, and for some odd reason, he is available in a lot of redraft leagues. It might have to do with that bye week, as some ignored him in last week’s waiver wire process. Well, grab him if available. Smallwood might gain so much value soon enough, you can use the runner as your RB2 moving forward, or you can trade him for a big starting line-up piece that you may be needing. He may or may not get his fair shot as a starter in Philly, coaches can often ruin this kind of thing. However, as of this moment, that PHI coaching staff seems to trust in him (giving him 17 rushes for 79 yards and 1TD in Week 3), so I fully expect Philly to turn to him. And, if he can stay healthy, he will likely thrive. He is shifty, he has no real competition, as I have zero faith in Ryan Mathews (if he returns), and Darren Sproles is a staple in the passing game, so his presence doesn’t hurt Smallwood’s. In dynasty, I’m not too sure what to make of Smallwood yet.. predicting big things for 3/4s of a season is one thing, envisioning a long-term fit is another. I will say that as of now, I like his situation long-term. Sproles is turning 34 next year, and unless the team drafts a big name back in 2017, which they won’t if Smallwood plays well, then I think RB2-type value in 2017 is very likely. Buy-now in dynasty and add him in redraft. I know, I hear it all the time… “But, Smitty, it’s too late to buy-low!” No it’s not. I hear that and scratch my head. You have to get creative in offering trades. You cannot just ask for a guy on the rise in a one-for-one. And, if you do, and you don’t scare that owner off with the straight-on approach, at least ask for another couple runners first making it seem like Smallwood was not on your mind. The best way to dilute any kind of attachment to a rising player is to make the offer bigger.

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Allen Robinson :: AROB

(9/29/16) Folks, he is going to get talked about on this Stock Market feature weekly until he bounces back, just like you kept seeing Devonta Freeman listed here over and over until he finally had his bounce-back outing last week (200 total yards and 1TD). Same thing here. AROB stock will rebound, as the guy is a top 4-7WR moving forward (in dynasty and redraft). Buy low! Some fantasy owners just don’t trade, so you can’t always land players like this, but if he is sitting on a team where that owner is losing and is willing to make deals each year, strike before he goes the way of Devonta Freeman and bounces back!

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Eddie Lacy :: LACY

(9/29/16) Eddie Lacy was a buy-low, now he is a sell-high. That’s how it works, that’s fantasy football! Acquire talent on the cheap, and move that talent on the high if possible if it has some risk of dropping back down in value. Lacy is the definition of someone that could drop back down and disappoint. He is still carrying some extra weight, slimmed down or not, and that makes him someone that could easily face injury moving forward. Use his Week 3 outing (100 yard game) to your advantage. Only sell-high, though, if you acquired him recently, you likely did so on the cheap. Sell-high, or don’t sell, but for sure try to sell-high!!!!

SELL. SELL. SELL.

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Lamar Miller :: MILLER

(9/28/16) Lamar Miller hasn’t been scoring like most fantasy owners had hoped through the first three weeks of the 2016 fantasy season, however, I think his time to explode is near. So, in dynasty or redraft, attack Miller via trade. He did have 100 yards rushing in Week 1, but failed to hit the total in both Weeks 2 and 3, and he has zero touchdowns so far this season. In dynasty, I doubt you can steal him away, but he will likely have a slightly lower price tag heading into Week 4. In redraft, however, I’ve witnessed and helped some SleeperU members (via my 1-on-1 Advice Feature) acquire Miller at RB2-type value, which is ridiculous and super low-risk.

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Amari Cooper :: COOP

(9/28/16) Amari Cooper is not someone you’re going to steal away from dynasty owners, but his slower than expected start could have him at a slightly lower price tag via trade (in dynasty). In redraft, I’ve witnessed and helped some SleeperU members (via my 1-on-1 Advice Feature) acquire Cooper in redraft at low-end WR2-type value, which is highway robbery. I still firmly believe that Cooper is a top 2-4 WR of the future, and I think he will consistently dance in the top 4-6 for WRs moving forward. Buy now, everyone, in all formats!

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Aaron Rodgers :: AROD

(9/22/16) Aaron Rodgers is not off to a hot start through 2 weeks of action, and while you’d think most would give him more than 2 weeks to deliver elite numbers, it appears many Rodgers owners are worried and willing to sell-low. Take advantage! I’ve seen two owners already land AROD using just Phillip Rivers or Matthew Stafford. I realize both Rivers and Stafford have nice stats thus far in 2016, but ARod is by far my No. 1 ranked passer for weeks 3-16. Buy-low, everyone! Take a bite now before Rodgers has one of those games that makes him untouchable!

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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LeSean McCoy :: MCCOY

(9/22/16) LeSean McCoy is off to a slow start through 2 weeks of action, and he ‘could’ struggle again in Week 3 against the Cardinals. I still recommend buying now, though, but if you are unsuccessful, a rough Week 3 stat line might make him finally attainable via trade heading into Week 4. Fantasy owners give up on players quickly once the losses start racking up, so take advantage and trade for McCoy, who if tied to Mike Gillislee, still has top 5-10RB appeal moving forward.

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Giovani Bernard :: GIO

(9/20/16) Gio Bernard is a sneaky PPR running back to own/play right now. He just dropped 17 rushing yards and 9 receptions/100/1TD in Week 2. That nice little outing in Week 2 has his value spiking a bit, but he still might be attainable via trade at a relatively-low value. If you just take a stab at him in some sort of one-for-one type deal, you’re going to likely raise eyebrows and trigger a rejection to any one-for-one offer you make. It’s all in the delivery and approach, and if you package Gio into a larger deal, as he should be a smaller piece anyway, you mask the desire you have for him, and you also dilute some of the appeal, as larger deals tend to do that. I still say value him at high-end flex-like value, or very low RB2-type value, but if he ever gets starter carries, he will produce RB1-type numbers. He isn’t starting, though, know that, but also know that even sharing carries, GIO stock is easily worth high-end RB3/flex value, and sneaky/risky RB2-type value. I am buying ‘low’ on GIO stock anywhere I can.

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Thomas Rawls :: RAWLS

(9/15/16) Thomas Rawls has been all over the place value wise, and I mean all off-season long! He was one of the very first Bold Predictions for this season, but posted back last year before the 2015 fantasy season even concluded. Why? Because in dynasty, he could, back then, be had at flex-like value. It was awesome and low risk back then. But, then we saw his value climb into almost-risky territory, so it then became time to pump the brakes a bit, and even in some cases it was time to avoid him in redraft given his climbing ADP (in August is when this happened). Well, things are turning back in the direction of low-risk/high-reward, and as of this moment, Rawls is back on top in SEA and his coaching staff is piling on the support for their locked-in starter. I love Christine Michael, and he too had big sleeper value given his super-low ADP (which climbed almost too high in August), but Rawls is the starter again until he gets banged up, and he may. The thing is, his current owners, especially in redraft, are still likely on edge, and they may look to sell on a high note fearing the worst, as it’s a frustrating ride when a player gets drafted really high and then looks like he could be headed for bust, which was the case for Rawls – until this week. But, again, his current redraft owners, and maybe some itchy-fingered dynasty owners in some leagues, could just look at his most recent uptick in value as a chance to get out on top. Take advantage if you can buy at almost high-end flex-like value. I DO NOT like buying high. I want no part of him if I’m forced to pay super high-end RB2 value. He has too much risk to buy in at that price. However, I’ve offered up Larry Fitzgerald and TY Hilton-type players to a few Rawls owners in a few of my leagues, and I’ve already received some initial interest and consideration. Even if both owners end up rejecting my offer(s), it appears that Rawls fantasy owners A) still don’t trust him and will entertain such offers, or B) they are oblivious to the news that he is rising back to the clear-cut starting role in SEA. Either way, there is still a touch of time left to get ahead of the curve here. You won’t get him in all leagues, and savvy owners will likely tell you they want to wait and see. That’s fine, but try to take a stab at least. If you own Rawls in any format, keep him and enjoy a bit of a bounce-back.

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Blake Bortles :: BORT

(9/15/16) Blake Bortles had a decent Week 1, throwing for over 300 yards and 1TD. There were plenty of missed opportunities last Sunday, too, and he could have easily had 2-3TDs, something I think we will see more of moving forward. This is a top 5QB if you ask me, and he can dance in the 2-3QB range from time to time. Buy-low if you can, he was already extremely doubted heading into 2016, to degree that he was a 7th-round pick in many August drafts. So, given he didn’t explode in Week 1, something tells me he could be even cheaper. I am buying everywhere I can, and I’m even downgrading a top 1-3QB for him to upgrade elsewhere, as I think it’s a sneaky way to upgrade one’s lineup.

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Devonta Freeman :: FREE

(9/13/16) Devonta Freeman: There is no denying that he flopped in Week 1. He did. Plain and simple. And, his backup produced better stats (Tevin Coleman). Still, fantasy football is all about value, and if you can buy-low, at prices well below his already-doubted draft value, you could be acquiring a potential top 10RB at what I’d guess could be 3rd-round like value (or better). If his draft value was in the middle of the second-round, his flop in Week 1 will surely lower that value another 10 picks (at least). Is he even worth that? I say yes. Only one week of football has taken place, everyone. One week. Knee-jerk reactions don’t always end up being wrong, but they always create some opportunities. I feel this could be one of those. It comes with risk, sure, but the risk minimizes more and more as he moves down outside the top 30 overall players. If you currently own Freeman, you better have handcuffed him to Coleman, only a few other handcuffs were more of a must, like Derrick Henry to DeMarco Murray and Spencer Ware to Jamaal Charles.

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Derrick Henry :: HENRY

(9/13/16) Derrick Henry has looked good all preseason, and while he didn’t explode or flop last week, we know that he could thrive in TEN if forced to start games. Will he? The odds are that DeMarco Murray will get banged up, and my guess (and it’s a total guess) is that we see Henry start some games somewhere near mid-season. I love Murray, and he was a Bold Prediction given his extremely-low value heading into August. That said, I’ve firmly promoted that if you draft him, you HAVE TO draft Derrick Henry. It was an absolute must given how productive the starter will be in TEN this year no matter who it is. If you missed out on handcuffing the two, see if you can take advantage of his quietly-good week, especially if that owner in question was hit with some injuries in Week 1. After injuries, fantasy owners often times will give up on longer-term hopes (like stashing Henry to fill immediate holes in the submarine. And, if you don’t own Murray, and let’s say the current Henry owner doesn’t either, the same thing applies here. See if that owner has holes that you can help address in order for him to give up on the long-term stash appeal that Henry brings to the table. This kind of move works well in a package deal, one where Herny becomes more of a secondary part of the deal. Thinking this far ahead can often help win leagues down the stretch. Our Spencer Ware advice was of the ‘ahead of the curve’ variety — this is no different.

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Marshawn Lynch :: LYNCH

(9/9/16) Marshawn Lynch is, according to numerous reports, considering a comeback. Now, it all started with a Mike Florio (PFT) report that specifically suggests to look to Week 4 or 5 for a potential Lynch return. Should fantasy owners grab the guy? Will he even be in shape? Will he have to play for Seattle? Here is the deal. If he comes back, Seattle has to pay him what sounds like $9 million, which isn’t likely, which means they’d likely cut him, which means he’d likely land somewhere where he felt he could play. Lynch is one unique individual, so we wouldn’t be shocked if this report was false or accurate. All we know is that if you have a back-up kicker or defense, or a prospect on your bench that will never likely see your starting lineup, why would you not grab Lynch? Might he be out of shape? Sure, but does anyone really buy that as a long-term concern if he were to come back? Plus, all I hear are assumptions on this front. What if he is keeping in shape? Does everyone know for a fact what kind of shape he is in? So, if you ask me, he is worth a grab even on the slight chance that this all plays out, as there is almost zero risk if you have a spot to burn on your roster(s). I have very few teams where I don’t have 1-2 players I could drop on a weekly basis for any on-the-rise type players, or players like Lynch.

BUY. BUY. BUY (ADD)

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Kenneth Dixon :: DIX

(9/6/16) Kenneth Dixon has been on our Bold Predictions List since the beginning of the 2016 off-season. In fact, he was one of the very first players added. While his injury and crowded situation in BAL have him as a runner-up to the top 12 listed, by mid-season I firmly believe he will begin turning heads and dropping serious fantasy points. This is a bold prediction, so calm expectations, and in redraft, add/trade accordingly. The value is in getting him lower than that expectation. Much lower! His situation I cannot control, though, but I’m excited about his talent and skill set. In dynasty, he isn’t the cheapest player to acquire, however, considering how valuable he could become, I think he is still undervalued by quite a bit. Can you get him in every league? No. I can hear it now, some hardcore SLeeperU forum users saying “No way I can get him now, it’s too late!” Sometimes owners of a specific player won’t trade that player for anything, hence why they drafted the player. But, in general, even though many are still somewhat optimistic about his long-term value, Dixon can still explode from his current dynasty value. Whether you can pull a trade off or not is up to you, and despite all the “it’s too late”, get creative and include him in bigger deals to dilute the attachment issues to Dixon (by his current owner). When I hear “Hey, Smitty, it’s too late to buy-low”, I say this… sometimes buying low on players that are already starting to rise takes hard work and tons of offers and creative thinking. It’s also half the fun!

BUY. BUY. BUY (ADD)

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Terrance West :: TWEST

(9/4/16) Terrance West is a player to pick up ASAP if your current league allows for add/drops. Then maybe sell him high (I’m stuck with Jamaal Charles in one dynasty league and I just sold West high off this news for Spencer Ware). In a surprise move yesterday, the Ravens released Justin Forsett, which moves up both Buck Allen and West, with West the likely starter – for now. This is actually great news for Kenneth Dixon owners, especially dynasty owners. Dixon is expected to be sidelined for a few weeks, but upon his return, his road to that starting lineup isn’t as long, and if talent gets a chance to win out in this situation, I’m confident that Dixon will be starting games in 2016. How many? That’s tough to say, as he could start half a season, or he could just as easily play near the end and give us a taste of things to come in 2017. Note: There is a small chance Forsett could be resigned. It’s just a rumor, but some small circles think he was the most likely runner to not get claimed if released and that the team could bring him back. Time will tell.

BUY. BUY. BUY (ADD)

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Dez Bryant :: DEZ & Dak Prescott :: DAK

(8/28/16) Dez Bryant just lost his passer… or did he? Tony Romo (back) is out at least six weeks, which means that first year passer Dak Prescott is now the lead dog QB in Dallas to start the season. Is this a good thing? I think so. For starters, we have a pretty good idea how skilled Prescott is, as he dropped monster numbers during the preseason (454 yards and a 5:0 TD/INT ratio). Despite only seeing him in preseason play, his skill is pretty obvious, and even if he has his ups and downs, it’s a good thing if he is playing close games, or playing from behind, in 2016, as this will fuel 3rd- and 4th-quarter passing, which equals more targets, yards and TDs for Dez Bryant and gang. As a DEZ stock owner, does close games with late-game deep balls sound like a bad recipe for success? Forget wins and losses, this is fantasy football, and DAK should be great for that Dallas offense from a fantasy perspective. Bryant is a hold, not a sell, with this QB change, and Prescott is a buy in all formats, as he could be this year’s huge QB find (much like we called out Russell Wilson the year he broke out and wasn’t even drafted in many fantasy leagues). Ezekiel Elliott’s fantasy value isn’t moving with the elevation of DAK. For now, I see the same stat lines out of ZEKE.

HOLD. HOLD. HOLD = DEZ :: BUY. BUY. BUY = DAK

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AJ Green :: AJG

(8/28/16) AJ Green is was getting no love earlier in the off-season, but his current ADP has rightfully climbed back into the 1.08-1.12 range in redraft, and slightly lower in dynasty. That’s about right, and it’s a low-risk pick in that 8-14 overall range. I wouldn’t draft him higher than 1.08, only because some other huge names should be going first (from Odell Beckham (ODB) to David Johnson (DJ), but don’t hesitate to make AJG your first purchased/drafted stock on draft day in any draft. Oh, and he is listed as a HOLD at this value because his current value is just right, and if you own him, you should hold at 1.08-1.12 value and you should not sell him lower than 1.07 type value via trade.

HOLD. HOLD. HOLD.

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Ameer Abdullah :: Abdu

(8/28/16) Ameer Abdullah is definitely on the rise in terms of fantasy value, and for legit reasons. He has been featured in preseason play as the lead back, and unless he starts to put the football on the ground, I think he gets a real shot to be a three-down back in 2016. If you remember last year, he was on my Bold Predictions List, so his skill set excites me quite a bit. So does his redraft ADP, which is hovering around the 7.05 to 7.08 range. That’s next to names like Danny Woodhead, DeVante Parker and LeGarrette Blount. While I like those three players as well, that’s a low-risk territory for a RB that does have a high-end RB2 skill set (if not higher). Don’t break the bank on him via trade, and dynasty-wise I’d rank him about a round or round and a half higher, but he still has risk once you start valuing him/drafting him next to names like Melvin Gordon, Donte Moncrief or a Blake Bortles… don’t value him that high or he becomes high-risk/high-reward vs. his current low-risk/low-reward.

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Arian Foster :: FOST

(8/15/16) Arian Foster is looking like a potential steal in 2016. His current ADP is around that 6 round area, and that’s near players like Eric Decker, Larry Fitzgerald, Matt Jones and Jonathan Stewart. If handcuffed to Jay Ajayi, you could be looking at a very, very strong fantasy RB2 in 2016. Will Foster play 16 games? Not likely, at least not at a super-high level. He could share carries into 16-played games, sure, but if getting near starter carries, he will likely get banged up at some point. But, that’s why I say to handcuff him to Ajayi. Even Kenyan Drake (rookie) could get some nice run should Foster go down, so keep that in mind as you handcuff… in larger leagues, owning all three is advised. In smaller leagues, you can likely grab Drake if he should look more like the back-up come Weeks 1/2. So, in a nutshell, Foster is looking rather low-risk at that near 6th-round area (not earlier, the 4/5-round range is still too high and the upside is lower). I don’t like him a lot higher than that, so grab him if he falls, pass if his ADP climbs a round or so higher, where you will find DeMarco Murray, Andrew Luck, Jeremy Langford and Dion Lewis.

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Dion Lewis :: DION

(8/6/16) Dion Lewis (knee) has been on the sideline for a bit now, and his fantasy stock has dipped a bit, which has been good news for those actively trying to get the guy rostered (in existing leagues). This week some news broke suggesting that Lewis might land on the reserve/PUP list to start the season, which would cost him the first six games of the 2016 NFL season. Then, more news broke suggesting that it’s “unlikely” that Lewis will open the regular season on the reserve/PUP list. It’s tough to say what will really happen, but we get the feeling the news is a bit stronger on the “unlikely” side, so we lean toward expecting Dion for Week 1. There is risk to acquiring him, though, so know that. However, with an ADP around 4.10-5.04, and potentially falling further, we kind of like the idea of going after Lewis, but only in a league or two (not every league you have, as that’s how you crash and burn an entire fantasy year across all leagues). The risk is still high, it’s just a bit more managable should disaster strike. Since the upside is big, and we mean low-end fantasy RB1-type big, Lewis deserves a look in a league or two. If you extrapolate his seven 2015 played games into 16, he would have rushed for 534 yards and 4.5 rushing TDs, while pulling in 82 passes for 886 yards and 4.5 passing TDs. Solid!

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Duke Johnson :: DUKE

(8/6/16) I’m really liking the low-risk/high-reward value that is Duke Johnson. The guy is sitting with a 6th- to 7th-round ADP in redraft, maybe a touch higher in dynasty, yet he has the potential to be a really, really strong fantasy RB2 in 2016. The concern is that CLE won’t use him as an every-down back. They could stay committed to a sharing situation all year despite the obvious, that DUKE stock is ready to explode if given the opportunity. Still, at 6-7 round ADP, he is worth the risk in at least 1-2 leagues, but not every league you do, as he is a medium-risk/high-reward player. His 61 receptions for 534 yards and 2TDs through the air last year was impressive given he wasn’t getting every-down work. Imagine if he got 10-14 carries per game, too.

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Allen Robinson :: AROB

(7/14/16) I really like AROB heading into 2016, his stock is clearly on the rise. But, is it too high? Is there too much risk? I think the answer is simple, if you own him, and the answer is simple if you don’t. If you own him, I think you merely consider selling high, only because you might just be able to get yourself into a safer option, or maybe some duo option that actually has one of those players in the duo stacking up near as valuable as Robinson. Examples could be, trading your AROB for a duo that involves one of: Amari Cooper, AJ Green, Mike Evans, or another look that gets you a WR with Devonta Freeman. The point is NOT that Allen Robinson will bust in 2016, as I said, I like him a lot, and I love Blake Bortles this year. It just all boils down to selling players at the highest while buying other players at their lowest. And, let me stress that I would NOT recommend doing a trade that lands you two mediocre players, I listed those WRs and a RB for a reason, because those players I listed can, by themselves, be just as good as AROB (then you mix in the second piece and you’re looking awesome). The last thing I’d advise anyone to do is go trade Robinson away for two players that both aren’t even near AROB’s value, that is NOT what I’m saying here. So, in conclusion, the same thing applies when drafting, but keep in mind, his ADP is all over the map, so you just have to pencil him into a place you’d grab him in if he is there, but allow him to get snagged if someone wants him higher than that range… so, draft other safer players over AROB, but if he falls to you in the 2.06-2.08 range, he really is one of the best players available at that stage in the game. Expect a big year, but be cautious not to make him a first rounder just yet, that’s my main take away here. So, on that note, because his ADP is bouncing around that 2.02-2.06 range, I say he is a HOLD in that range, no question, and a sell-high when appropriate and where you can take advantage of some of the hype surrounding his rise (where you can get a AJ Green and a ton more in exchange for AROB — it happens!).

HOLD. HOLD. HOLD.

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TY Hilton :: HILT

(7/14/16) If you want an underrated fantasy WR2 that has sneaky-good WR1-type upside, this is your guy. Now, let me first say that his ADP is all over the place, as I’ve seen him both get drafted and traded for at almost high-end WR3-type value, then I’ve seen him get drafted in startups at the tail-end of the third-round. Everything with this guy depends on his value in your league and your specific fantasy world. Not every player has good value in every league, and sometimes the player you want, HILT in this case, is just owned by that one guy that wouldn’t trade him for almost anything. Now, what kind of numbers to I expect? Well, I expect high-end WR2-type numbers, but I’m scooping him up at that value, or less, and hoping for a bigger return. He and Andrew Luck had bad seasons last year, but most will not consider that Hilton was stuck in disappointment without Luck last season, it was kind of out of his control. I think with Luck super likely to bounce-back this year, Hilton is going to surprise a lot of people and post similar receptions and yardage totals to his 2014 campaign, where he pulled in 82 balls for 1,345 yards; however, i think his career-high 7TDs (from that same season) will reach double-digits. How high into double-digits? I think 10-12 is likely, he really does have sneaky-good WR1-type upside this season. I’m buying. I’m buying both HILT and LUCK stock everywhere I can.

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Devonta Freeman :: DFREE

(7/12/16) I’ve beat this topic like a dead horse, but when value is so good, I tend to continue the beatdown! Folks, Devonta Freeman is continuing to drop on industry-leading ADP rankings, as he is now falling in that 2.05-2.06 range. It appears that the general fantasy football population has forgotten that DFREE was the No. 1 fantasy football running back last year and there isn’t a single bit of news suggesting he isn’t heading into 2016 as a potential top 5RB workhorse. Now, DFREE doubters will talk up Tevin Coleman, and he is a must-own handcuff no doubt… but, I keep hearing things about him as if he has any kind of resume. Will Atlanta use him more in 2016? Sure. I hope so! News ‘broke’ even yesterday where that ATL coaching staff suggested that they want to use Coleman a lot more in 2016 in order to keep Freeman fresh. What did Coleman owners hear when they read that? That he was on his way to getting himself in a RBBC. Granted, I am bias toward Freeman, so of course I heard nothing but “we want to keep Freeman healthy and fresh.” The difference between my interpretation (a Freeman believer) and the interpretation of a believer in Coleman is that my guy finished as the No. 1 overall player in all of 2015. Yeah, I have that in my corner. I also have no signs that the team doubts him. And, despite all the inaccurate garbage regarding his ‘late season drop off’, if you take his final five games of the 2015 fantasy football season and extrapolate those five games over 16 games, he finishes only second to… himself. That’s right, his ‘drop off’ numbers would have still made him the No. 1 overall running back last year (if you removed his actual 16-game stats). Doubt him if you want, I won’t lose a wink of sleep over your doubt, but because you are a SleeperU reader/member, I will keep beating this horse so that you don’t kick yourself come October when you could have snagged Freeman at second-round value. This goes for redraft and dynasty, trade or draft. Especially dynasty, as his trade value is even lower than 2.06-type value (in many cases). Ridiculous!

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Tevin Coleman :: COLE

(7/12/16) Read above regarding how I view Devonta Freeman. This blurb is merely going to address that if you plan to own DFREE this year, be sure to handcuff him to Coleman. He is no Freeman, but that offense should produce solid starter numbers no matter who is in the backfield! For those hoping COLE gets in that lineup and is the next elite stud, I advise you to curb your expectations. Coleman’s value is on the rise, almost too much, and I caution anyone trying to acquire him on the high in hopes of just owning him until he gets into that Falcons’ starting lineup. Again, read above on Freeman, as I speak to the fact that he was the No. 1 overall fantasy player in all of 2015, and still the No. 1 finishing rusher if you just extrapolate his last five games into 16 games (which is the so called period where he ‘dropped off in production’)… Freeman is the elite rusher here, but both being owned together is what you call smart drafting/ownership, as it brings a lot of security to the table.

HOLD. HOLD. HOLD.

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Aaron Rodgers :: AROD

(7/1/16) While Aaron Rodgers isn’t steadily-dropping as we speak, his overall 2016 fantasy football value has been trending quite low all off-season. In both redraft and dynasty, his ADP is right around 4.01, and if you can snag a potential 40TD passer as your fourth-drafted player… well, let’s just say you’re on your way to building a front-runner team. There is almost no risk at even late third-round value, but given that LUCK stock is trending even 5-8 picks lower than 4.01, it appears that one of these top 1-2 fantasy passers will be available at 4.01 in most drafts. Steal. Absolute steal!

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Eddie Lacy :: LACY

(7/1/16) Eddie Lacy’s value, in both dynasty and redraft, has been on the rise all off-season. His value appears to be settling into place in the middle-to-late 2nd-round, a place I see it staying. So, while his value is leveling into that area of ADP data, is he worth the cost? If you own him, should you sell him on the high? I say sell. I’m not saying he cannot rebound back into a fantasy RB1, but players like Devonta Freeman, AJ Green, Mike Evans and Amari Cooper feel like much safer options, and all have elite upside in 2016 (and beyond). Test the trade waters if you currently own LACY stock. Try to trade into a name that I just mentioned, even if you have to give up a 2nd-rounder or a few future draft picks.

SELL. SELL. SELL.

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Andrew Luck :: LUCK

(7/1/16) Want to win a league in 2016 redraft leagues, or at least have a huge advantage that others seem to overlook? Want to trade for this kind of upside in existing leagues? Draft or acquire Andrew Luck at his current middle-to-late 4th-round value. This value is just silly. I know, I know… the fantasy quarterback pool is so deep this year, I’ve heard it a thousand times by now, and I love passers like Blake Bortles as well, someone I’ll surely talk about in the next few player updates (look for it!). However, whenever a player has draft value in rounds 3+, and can throw for 40TDs, that player can win leagues. I mention this above under Aaron Rodgers, as the same thing applies to him. Draft either passer in the 4th-round in all 2016 redraft drafts, and do it without hesitation. And, do the same in start-up drafts, and acquire them in existing leagues at that value. To me, the stock values of both LUCK and AROD is plain awesome, yet head-scratching.

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Odell Beckham :: ODB

(7/1/16) Odell Beckham Jr. has a top 1-4 overall ADP right now, in all formats. Is he worth the risk? While there isn’t a ton of room to outperform expectations, that doesn’t necessarily mean that he isn’t worth a top 1-4 overall pick. I think he is, but it’s one of those moves you’d make in one league and not in another (assuming you had two drafts kicking off and had the same pick in each league). There is risk for disappointment, but I have no problem holding/retaining ODB at that stock value in existing leagues, and I have zero problem with drafting him with a 1-4 overall pick. It’s fair value. It’s accurate.

HOLD. HOLD. HOLD.