Week 13: Aaron Jones
This might be confusing, so buckle-up. Because this is member-only content, I will drop a potential early bold prediction teaser in this write-up. On January 1, or sooner, you may see one of the first bold predictions up and it could be one that predicts a downfall for Aaron Jones in 2021. Why? First, let me say that I like him for Weeks 13-16. So, in redraft, if for any reason your league still allows for trading, he is a strong bet for good production down the stretch. And, I bet he costs way less than a first-round runner right now in redraft. If he finishes strong, though, his value will go up for 2021. So, that leads me to my dynasty take on A-Jones.
Lack of volume, touchdown dependency, all mixed with a history of injuries and coaching commitment issues... this all adds up to far too many risks to warrant top 20 overall value in 2021. I know I had my doubts about him entering this year, and he played well for most of the early part of 2020... well, you would be hard pressed to find any analyst on earth that had him higher ranked than I did heading into 2019, his breakout season where he easily earned fantasy owners 10x the value they spent... he flat-out won leagues for people in 2019. I think landing him in 2019 affords me some forgiveness from you all in 2020 (insert laughing emojis). I feel like my logic behind worrying about him was sound... he has trouble staying healthy, he has never had ultra-productive and healthy-driven off-seasons until 2019, which was a big reason I loved him heading into 2019... But, the fact that he has always struggled to stay healthy, ran into injury for a couple games in a row in 2020... he still worries the hell out of me for the long-term (dynasty) and even 2021. In 2020, he will likely finish under 1,000 yards rushing. If he finishes strong, though, despite the missed games causing him to gain less than 1,000 yards rushing on the year, he could go as high as top 10-14 overall in 2021 drafts. This is not awful value, it's just loaded with grips of risk, and I myself would rather have the upside/reward scale to have more upside than reward. This is at best a 50/50 split of both. At best. So, like for most of 2020, that means Jones could workout again in 2020. Know that. That's why the scale is there, there is some weight on both sides (upside and risk). But, if we play the odds game, injury, coaching, TD dependency, there are a lot of red flags if you ask me.
Dynasty: Calvin Ridley
Start attempting to buy Calvin Ridley now in dynasty before he starts picking his game back up to that consistent top 5WR level. I truly see Ridley as 2nd-round worthy come 2021 drafts, and of course for him to have that kind of value, he must finish strong. So, yes, I am predicting a strong finish in Weeks 13-16. Act now in dynasty, and try your best to buy him outside of top 25 overall value, this way you have huge amounts of ceiling value and little risk.
Week 13: Josh Jacobs / Booker
Josh Jacobs was held out of Wednesday's practice with an ankle injury. Word is that there is a chance that the Raiders' rusher can play against the Jets in Week 13, however, this sounds like something that is more likely to get worse not better. Stay tuned, but for now, Devontae Booker could be in for a sizeable workload in Week 13 and vaults to the top 1-2 overall for Week 13 waiver wire adds.
Dynasty: Chase Claypool
Chase Claypool is a beast with Big Ben tossing him the football. Like any PIT wide receiver, though, you have to wonder what happens to Claypool's value or dynasty value if Big Ben ever gets hurt (likely), retires or gets bad. He isn't a spring chicken, and his ability to force-feed WRs should not be ignored as a major reason PIT wide receivers do well. Ok, so aside from that, there is a ton to love about Claypool, even for Weeks 13-16. Look at his game log:
.. 559 yards and 8TDs is insane for a rookie WR through 12 weeks. If Claypool was on any other team with any other passer, I'd caution away from high expectations of consistency (As he is a rookie); however, because Big Ben is the one under center here, the most notorious force-feeding QB in the NFL... well, I say Claypool eats big meals the rest of the way as a rookie. He is an excellent WR3 the rest of the way.. no question! It's actually reckless to not start him in Weeks 13-16. Then, we will have to assess his true dynasty value in the off-season and not fall too easily into the trap that led us into banking on Juju in 2020. I'm not saying Claypool can't be a top 8-15WR at the NFL level for the long-term. He most certainly can. I'm merely saying, we need to examine it all end of season and ensure we aren't falling into an inflated trap for 2021.
Week 12: Christian McCaffrey/Mike Davis
Christian McCaffrey (shoulder) is listed as questionable for Week 12 against the Vikings. There is actually a grip of pessimism surrounding this situation across news wires, son't Mike Davis is very likely to get another start in Week 12. Davis has top 6-10RB appeal any time he starts for the Panthers. Yes, Davis has dropped off a lot since being an electric replacement for the earlier part of the 2020 season, but he wasn't use to the heavy CMC-fed workload that he was forced to take on. Even though Davis is not a rookie, he is 27 and has played since 2015, he hit a wall of sorts. Most rookies hit it, and even a veteran like Davis can hit a similar usage wall - he could bounce-back like so many do. Start Davis as a medium-range RB2 with upside for more, and absolutely find a way to play him as a flex if you're stacked at RB. As for CMC, he remains our 1.01 heading into 2021 fantasy football drafts (all formats), and you can expect a lot of content on why in the coming month.
Week 12/Dynasty: Calvin Ridley
Calvin Ridley (foot) will play in Week 12 against the Raiders. Ridley is a WR1 moving forward now that he is back, so don't hesitate to run him out there in Week 12. It feels almost insane to write that line, as I can't personally imagine why anyone would bench Ridley or contemplate benching him just because he is coming back from injury. He surely warrants at least your WR2 spot let alone your flex spot. As for his future... he is the future of that Falcons receiving room. In dynasty, I think he easily holds the value that he had earlier in the year... top 3-6WR value out of all wide receivers. If you can buy him lower than top 5WR value heading into 2021 and beyond, I recommend trading for him in your existing dynasty leagues. You will once again find Ridley on the Bold Predictions heading into 2021 if I had to guess.
Dynasty: Antonio Gibson
What a beast. First off, Washington needs to keep giving him the football for him to produce. Keep that in mind. I don't want to suggest that this guy won't be a RB2 go-forward, he should... he needs to be. If fed, he will explode. But, teams can certainly screw these kinds of things up. His 115-yard outing with 3TDs on Thanksgiving almost single-handedly won fantasy owners their Week 12 match-up. He has 8TDs over his last 4 games.. And, given the success Washignton had on the ground in this one, it's far more likely that they continue to feed Gibson than not. He has seen an increase in carries over the last three weeks as well (13-16 and then 20). He has a tough PIT match-up in Week 13, but on the year, and heading into 2021, this is top 20 overall player.
Week 12: Taysom cheat code again?
Last week may not be the only week you can use Taysom Hill at TE... You can use him in Week 12 at TE.. watch this video:
Week 12: Aaron Jones
AJones hasn't been going nuts over the last couple of weeks. Here is his game log this year:
It's important to note that he is TD dependent, clearly by that game log above; however, he has so much upside in redraft. He can have 4-5TDs in a 3-4 game span. So, in redraft, I love him as a top 5-10RB go-forward. In dynasty, though, I think it's time to sell. Sell high before the the lack of TDs becomes as consistent as his lack of rushing yards. TD dependency can only last so long. So, sell high.
Week 12: Ezekiel Elliott
Ezekiel Elliott could be back on track. Don't get overly excited, but it's time to start getting a bit optimistic. He had 100 yards rushing and a TD in Week 11, and there is a strong shot that he gets back to having 100 yard games (at least total) with a strong shot at a score... every week. Tony Pollard is still a must-cuff, and his big run in Week 11 will have someone else scooping him up if you don't (if he is even available on waivers).