News: Julio Jones and Jay Ajayi have big Week 1 games; Sell Tevin Coleman?

Smitty’s Take: Historically, Thursday night games are disappointing for fantasy football worlds, and outside of the monster performances by both Julio Jones (10 rec,169 yards and 0TDs) and Jay Ajayi (62 rushing yards, 2TDs), this was again one of those low-scoring fantasy football outings. Matt Ryan went for 251/0TDs/1INT, and Nick Foles was worse with 117/0TDs/1INT. Tevin Coleman actually did decent, rushing for 19 yards and 1TD, while adding 1 catch for 26 yards. However, Zach Ertz was quiet most of the game (5/48/0TDs), and despite eight catches by Nelson Agholor, he only pulled in 33 yards. Mohamed Sanu was quiet with 4/18/0TDs and Devonta Freeman (knee) got banged up and didn’t play near the end of the game (but NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport said Freeman will be fine); DFree wasn’t very productive before getting hurt, getting stuffed on the goal line a couple times in the first quarter (and finishing 36 yards rushing, 3 rec for 14 yards). If we had to speak to this game in general, we screamed buy-low/draft-low on Julio Jones all off-season, and that ship has now sailed. He proved he still belonged in the top 10 overall, yet he was a steal for all fantasy owners snagging him in the middle of the second all off-season (he was setup to be anyone’s second-drafted player – steal!). All one can do if they missed out on buying low on Julio is to find the next underrated stud before he proves undervalued… AJ Green, Melvin Gordon and DeShaun Watson come to mind most. I will say that Freeman/Coleman is both a buying opportunity and selling opportunity, with a mix of risk. Meaning, Freeman (knee) entered 2018 with a bit of doubt, as many feared Tevin Coleman taking over his job at some point. But, Coleman and Freeman are equally-capable of getting banged up, so buying low on Freeman right now via trade is an interesting mix of high-risk/high-reward (only if you can buy him cheaply, and those that own him might just sell him off at what would equate to 3rd-round like value). Selling Coleman high has some risk, because if he does take over (not something I expect as long as Freeman is in the picture), he would go nuts… or if Freeman got hurt, and he did (but the report is that Freeman is fine now). I say sell Coleman if you own him and do not own Freeman, as you can either sell him high to the Freeman owner in your league, or to some other owner that liked what he/she saw last night. Using Coleman, you could maybe buy-low on the next “Julio Jones” (a player being overlooked all off-season)… AJ Green comes to mind, as mentioned. Now, you can’t get AJ Green for Tevin Coleman straight up, but toss in a lower-ranked WR and you may ink that kind of deal. Or, maybe you upgrade a third-round RB into a Melvin Gordon. Or, maybe you upgrade your solid QB1 into Deshaun Watson using Tevin… Those are a few thoughts. As for Ajayi, he looks ready to dominate the carries in PHI right now, and I like his chances should he stay healthy. But will he? He was on the Bold Predictions in 2017, so clearly I’m a fan of his game… but Corey Clement should not be overlooked as a stash-and-wait, folks… he looked excellent on one huge 21-yard run last night and I think he is the better back… if ever called to start, something that isn’t all that unlikely given Ajayi’s knees, he would go nuts. Know that!

2 Comments

  1. chris barbee on September 8, 2018 at 7:01 pm

    good analysis Smitty as always. These are the quick takes that make this site different! Keep ’em coming!

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