fantasy football bold predictions sleepers breakouts iheart radio the fantasy football show

Regular Content is here... starting with this new Bold Prediction. Get some!

Hayden Hurst

His ADP is currently the 16th TE off the board. Anyone else think he’s going to erupt in Atlanta this year?

Comments

  • chuckeycharleschuckeycharles Posts: 6,332
    edited July 29
    I do and I already own him in 2 dynasty leagues.

    In the one league I also own Mark Andrews and Hockenson, so he is farther down the totem pole for me there. But, when I have to trim 5 players prior to the draft, Hurst will be retained.

    In the other league I am still recovering from the death (retirement) of Gronk so it will be between Hurst and Gesicki for me. But, I am optimistic about Hurst being the #1 on a team that uses TEs
    10 Team Dynasty - All TDs = 6 / PassingYd = .04 / Rushing-ReceivingYd = .10 / No-PPR / No Bonus
    - - - - - - - - - - - Starting requirements = QB - RB - RB/WR - WR - WR/TE - TE - DST - K
    QB - Wilson, J. Allen, Stafford, Minshew, Bridgewater, Haskins / RB - Saquon, Zeke, Kamara, D.Cook, Mattison, Pollard
    WR - M.Thomas, Hopkins, Godwin, A.J.Brown, Chark, AJG, M.Williams, H.Butler / TE - M.Andrews. Hockenson, Gesicki, Hurst, OJ Howard
    DST - Ravens, Vikings / K - Gay
    12 Team Dynasty - TDs = 4-6 / PassingYd =.04 / Rushing-ReceivingYd =.10 / PPR / Bonus 3 at 300-100
    - - - - - - - - - - - Starting requirements = QB - 2RB - 3WR - 1TE - 1FlexRWT - DST - K
    QB - Cousins, Darnold, Trubisky, Fitzpatrick / RB - A.Jones, Ingram, DJ, K.Johnson, Dillon, JamaalWilliams, D.Harris, R.Armstead, Benjamin
    WR - Hopkins, K.Allen, DK.Metcalf, Claypool, Perriman, Boykin, Westbrook, Valdes-Scantling / TE - Gesicki, Hurst, Trautman, Dissly, V.McDonald, Griffin
    DST - Steelers, Buccaneers / K - Lutz
  • WTCMWTCM Posts: 12,262
    Ton of targets to be found in Atlanta, he's gonna eat. Top 10 is without doubt
    I'm an asshole from:
    Montreal, Canada  image
    Also creator of this:
  • HellAtlanticHellAtlantic Posts: 1,420
    He doesn’t have the athletic profile to really put up top 10 numbers. Yes I know opportunity is half of the equation but just having opportunity doesn’t solve everything. His breakout age, the age in which a guy put up his first dominating stats, is absolutely horrendous. He was 23 whereas a much younger breakout age is one of the indicators of future success. 23 is ancient for a breakout yr. Most are in the 19-21 range.
  • WTCMWTCM Posts: 12,262

    His breakout age, the age in which a guy put up his first dominating stats, is absolutely horrendous. He was 23 whereas a much younger breakout age is one of the indicators of future success. 23 is ancient for a breakout yr. Most are in the 19-21 range.

    Uhm, I disagree. You're lucky to have TEs on the field at the age you're suggesting.
    I'm an asshole from:
    Montreal, Canada  image
    Also creator of this:
  • chuckeycharleschuckeycharles Posts: 6,332
    edited July 29

    He doesn’t have the athletic profile to really put up top 10 numbers. Yes I know opportunity is half of the equation but just having opportunity doesn’t solve everything. His breakout age, the age in which a guy put up his first dominating stats, is absolutely horrendous. He was 23 whereas a much younger breakout age is one of the indicators of future success. 23 is ancient for a breakout yr. Most are in the 19-21 range.

    Not sure what you mean. Combine data compared to other TEs the 2018 draft
    1. 40 yards = 4.67 = tied for 4th
    2. 20 yards = 2.71 = 3rd - 0.01 behind 2nd
    3. 10 yards = 1.63 = 4th - 0.01 behind 3rd
    4. SPARQ = 115.8 = 5th
    5. Speed Score = 105.12 = 4th
    6. NFL Grade = 5.90 = 2nd - 0.02 behind Gesicki

    PLUS - The reason he was an old rookie is because he was previously a pitcher in the Pirates minor league system in 2013 and 2014 with a 95MPH fast ball until he blew our his arm

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=hurst-000hay

    https://www.espn.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/273852/yips-ruined-hayden-hursts-baseball-career-opened-door-to-nfl


    10 Team Dynasty - All TDs = 6 / PassingYd = .04 / Rushing-ReceivingYd = .10 / No-PPR / No Bonus
    - - - - - - - - - - - Starting requirements = QB - RB - RB/WR - WR - WR/TE - TE - DST - K
    QB - Wilson, J. Allen, Stafford, Minshew, Bridgewater, Haskins / RB - Saquon, Zeke, Kamara, D.Cook, Mattison, Pollard
    WR - M.Thomas, Hopkins, Godwin, A.J.Brown, Chark, AJG, M.Williams, H.Butler / TE - M.Andrews. Hockenson, Gesicki, Hurst, OJ Howard
    DST - Ravens, Vikings / K - Gay
    12 Team Dynasty - TDs = 4-6 / PassingYd =.04 / Rushing-ReceivingYd =.10 / PPR / Bonus 3 at 300-100
    - - - - - - - - - - - Starting requirements = QB - 2RB - 3WR - 1TE - 1FlexRWT - DST - K
    QB - Cousins, Darnold, Trubisky, Fitzpatrick / RB - A.Jones, Ingram, DJ, K.Johnson, Dillon, JamaalWilliams, D.Harris, R.Armstead, Benjamin
    WR - Hopkins, K.Allen, DK.Metcalf, Claypool, Perriman, Boykin, Westbrook, Valdes-Scantling / TE - Gesicki, Hurst, Trautman, Dissly, V.McDonald, Griffin
    DST - Steelers, Buccaneers / K - Lutz
  • HellAtlanticHellAtlantic Posts: 1,420
    edited July 29
    WTCM said:

    His breakout age, the age in which a guy put up his first dominating stats, is absolutely horrendous. He was 23 whereas a much younger breakout age is one of the indicators of future success. 23 is ancient for a breakout yr. Most are in the 19-21 range.

    Uhm, I disagree. You're lucky to have TEs on the field at the age you're suggesting.
    Breakout age is for college. So he didn’t appear to have any breakout while in college. The idea behind breakout age and why a young breakout age is important is that the younger a breakout age is means a younger guys, like a sophomore or a true freshmen who can have dominating stats against older competition will correlate to success. So his breakout age of 23 is horrendous. He couldn’t even put up stats as a senior against guys who were 3-4 yrs younger than him. Just something to consider. I’m willing to bet that all the research that has been done will be proven true yet again and he won’t be as good as everyone thinks.

    Also remember if he was as good as everyone thinks would he have been surpassed by Andrews while on the Ravens and would he have been the one to be traded, all that despite being drafted higher than Andrews? Also, going back to opportunity- Trey Burton went from Eagles to Bears and everyone thought he’d dominate because he no longer had to compete with Ertz and would have Chicago all to himself. How did that work out? Lol Food for thought.
  • HellAtlanticHellAtlantic Posts: 1,420
    edited July 29

    He doesn’t have the athletic profile to really put up top 10 numbers. Yes I know opportunity is half of the equation but just having opportunity doesn’t solve everything. His breakout age, the age in which a guy put up his first dominating stats, is absolutely horrendous. He was 23 whereas a much younger breakout age is one of the indicators of future success. 23 is ancient for a breakout yr. Most are in the 19-21 range.

    Not sure what you mean. Combine data compared to other TEs the 2018 draft
    1. 40 yards = 4.67 = tied for 4th
    2. 20 yards = 2.71 = 3rd - 0.01 behind 2nd
    3. 10 yards = 1.63 = 4th - 0.01 behind 3rd
    4. SPARQ = 115.8 = 5th
    5. Speed Score = 105.12 = 4th
    6. NFL Grade = 5.90 = 2nd - 0.02 behind Gesicki

    PLUS - The reason he was an old rookie is because he was previously a pitcher in the Pirates minor league system in 2013 and 2014 with a 95MPH fast ball until he blew our his arm

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=hurst-000hay

    https://www.espn.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/273852/yips-ruined-hayden-hursts-baseball-career-opened-door-to-nfl


    No, that 4th is in the bottom. For him to be in the top 4th it would’ve said “96th” percentile. Compare his metrics and combine score to the athletic freak Noah Fant. There is every indication that Fant will become insanely good, whereas the tea leaves for Hurst suggest JAG.

    Fant:
    Breakout age: 19.8 (84th percentile which is great, he was dominating and first put up big numbers against older competitors).
    40 time: 4.50 (98th percentile, insanely good for a TE)
    Speed score: 120.8 (97th percentile, another insanely good score for a TE)
    SPARQ: 128.8 (94th percentile)
  • wickerkat1212wickerkat1212 Posts: 2,316
    I like him a lot. Got him off WW and traded him to get an upgrade. Can't get the owner in my other dynasty to even respond. I think he'll be top 10-15 for sure.
    D3:
    QB—Allen, Big Ben, Fitz, Tyrod
    RB—EE, Henry, Cohen, Mostert, Evans (R), Coleman, JSamuels, Pollard
    WR—MThomas, Diggs, Chark, Harry, Lamb (R), Hardman, Butler, Lazard
    TE—Doyle, Jonnu, Thomas
    PK—Zuerlein
    DEF—Ravens

    D4:
    QB—Watson, Stafford, Fitz
    RB—Conner, David & Duke Johnson, Cohen, Howard, Breida, Burkhead, JSamuels, Edmonds
    WR—Hill, Allen, Golladay, Jeudy (R), Jeffery, Jefferson (R), Amendola, Miller, Butler, Watson
    TE—Olsen, Thomas, Kmet, Trautman
    PK—Gostkowski, Prater
    DEF—Bears, Jags
  • WTCMWTCM Posts: 12,262
    Was Aaron Hernandez a lesser talent because he couldn't surpass Gronk? Dallas Goedert, he's 25 now. Also behind Zach Etrz but a borderline TE1 . While I love Noah Fant, I feel Lock may hold him back. Weekly TE1 would be a rarity.
    I'm an asshole from:
    Montreal, Canada  image
    Also creator of this:
  • sludgejudgesludgejudge Posts: 962
    Think he has a legit shot to crack the top 5 IF he can stay healthy.... He’s in a great spot to do so....
  • chuckeycharleschuckeycharles Posts: 6,332
    edited July 29

    He doesn’t have the athletic profile to really put up top 10 numbers. Yes I know opportunity is half of the equation but just having opportunity doesn’t solve everything. His breakout age, the age in which a guy put up his first dominating stats, is absolutely horrendous. He was 23 whereas a much younger breakout age is one of the indicators of future success. 23 is ancient for a breakout yr. Most are in the 19-21 range.

    Not sure what you mean. Combine data compared to other TEs the 2018 draft
    1. 40 yards = 4.67 = tied for 4th
    2. 20 yards = 2.71 = 3rd - 0.01 behind 2nd
    3. 10 yards = 1.63 = 4th - 0.01 behind 3rd
    4. SPARQ = 115.8 = 5th
    5. Speed Score = 105.12 = 4th
    6. NFL Grade = 5.90 = 2nd - 0.02 behind Gesicki

    PLUS - The reason he was an old rookie is because he was previously a pitcher in the Pirates minor league system in 2013 and 2014 with a 95MPH fast ball until he blew our his arm

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=hurst-000hay

    https://www.espn.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/273852/yips-ruined-hayden-hursts-baseball-career-opened-door-to-nfl


    No, that 4th is in the bottom. For him to be in the top 4th it would’ve said “96th” percentile. Compare his metrics and combine score to the athletic freak Noah Fant. There is every indication that Fant will become insanely good, whereas the tea leaves for Hurst suggest JAG.

    Fant:
    Breakout age: 19.8 (84th percentile which is great, he was dominating and first put up big numbers against older competitors).
    40 time: 4.50 (98th percentile, insanely good for a TE)
    Speed score: 120.8 (97th percentile, another insanely good score for a TE)
    SPARQ: 128.8 (94th percentile)
    I compared Hurst's metrics against TEs from his draft class. I did not compare him to players from other draft classes. Yes, Fant was a freak. So was DK Metcalf.

    Gesicki was a freak too. So far he is still a question mark, although, I still believe in him

    TE-------------SPARQ ---SPEED
    Mike Gesicki ----150.7-----116.28 - Basically tied for 1st among TEs
    Dallas Goedert---127.8----107.65
    Hayden Hurst----115.8----105.12 - If one considers Gesicki and Andrews to be a tie - Then Hurst is 4th
    Mark Andrews---115.2-----116.36 - 1st among TEs
    Ian Thomas-----135.5-----110.79

    ALL OTHER TEs had lower numbers except Andrew Vollert, Tyler Conklin and Garrett Hudson


    10 Team Dynasty - All TDs = 6 / PassingYd = .04 / Rushing-ReceivingYd = .10 / No-PPR / No Bonus
    - - - - - - - - - - - Starting requirements = QB - RB - RB/WR - WR - WR/TE - TE - DST - K
    QB - Wilson, J. Allen, Stafford, Minshew, Bridgewater, Haskins / RB - Saquon, Zeke, Kamara, D.Cook, Mattison, Pollard
    WR - M.Thomas, Hopkins, Godwin, A.J.Brown, Chark, AJG, M.Williams, H.Butler / TE - M.Andrews. Hockenson, Gesicki, Hurst, OJ Howard
    DST - Ravens, Vikings / K - Gay
    12 Team Dynasty - TDs = 4-6 / PassingYd =.04 / Rushing-ReceivingYd =.10 / PPR / Bonus 3 at 300-100
    - - - - - - - - - - - Starting requirements = QB - 2RB - 3WR - 1TE - 1FlexRWT - DST - K
    QB - Cousins, Darnold, Trubisky, Fitzpatrick / RB - A.Jones, Ingram, DJ, K.Johnson, Dillon, JamaalWilliams, D.Harris, R.Armstead, Benjamin
    WR - Hopkins, K.Allen, DK.Metcalf, Claypool, Perriman, Boykin, Westbrook, Valdes-Scantling / TE - Gesicki, Hurst, Trautman, Dissly, V.McDonald, Griffin
    DST - Steelers, Buccaneers / K - Lutz
  • KookaburraKookaburra Posts: 1,674
    Ryan wil feed him.
  • Irish4EverIrish4Ever Posts: 145
    Hurst could be too 10 this year. Lots of targets available in that offense.
    QB:Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murray, Chase Daniel; Kyle Allen: RB:Zeke Elliott, Dalvin Cook, Kenyan Drake, Darwin Thompson, Frank Gore, Benny Snell, Jr., Dare Ogumbowale; WR: Deandre Hopkins, D.J. Chark, Odell Beckham Jr.;
    Robby Anderson and Robert Foster;TE: George Kittle and Evan Engram ; K Will Lutz and Josh Lambo; Defense: Rams and Browns. Start: QB, (2) RB, (2) WR, TE, K and D.
Sign In or Register to comment.