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Tampa Bay Bucs Offense

rabidbucfanrabidbucfan Posts: 3,648
edited May 29 in Stock Up/Down
Howdy gang. The Bucs have a new sheriff in town. The one and only QB whisperer himself Bruce Arians so what does that mean for offensive production in the fantasy world. Here's my take for what it's worth.

Arians has no problem with letting the QB sling the ball around. Mostly to the WR's.
So players like Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Adam Humphries should be fine if not in for an uptick in usage.
With the exception of 2009 in Pitt when Heath Miller got 98 targets alone (109 TE targets that year) putting the target to TE's at about 21% it looks like Arians offenses generally target TE's around 10% -14% of the time. That would put Brate and Howard right about where they have been production wise. However, IF Arians see Howard as a producer his numbers could go up.
Running backs out of the back field. David Johnson had 1 year of stellar production in Arizona and that put the rush/pass attempts fairly close - the Bucs don't have a David Johnson. I love Peyton Barber as a football player and as a between the tackles runner. Hell he should be the starter next season imo. RoJo would have to have an amazing off season to become a usable target next season.

So overall imo if the Bucs don't get any new skill players then the offensive scheme will be 60% pass / 40% rush with the WR's getting the lions share of the work and the QB being very busy.

Fantasy impact for next season:

Jamis Winston QB1 (hell he could have 5000 yds and 40 tds buyer beware may have 25 ints as well)
Mike Evan WR1
Chris Godwin solid WR2 with upside
Adam Humphries world class Flex with upside to WR2 (he has to stop getting lit up though)-TRADED TO TITANS smh
Bobo Wilson, Breshad Perriman, Justin Watson - one of these 3 will take over the WR3 spot - I'll call it solid Flex potential - personally I like Watson
O.J. Howard TE2 with upside to TE1
Cameron Brate TE2-has to heal up or Legget may get an opportunity to show his stuff
Peyton Barber RB2 or solid Flex
Ronald Jones TBD
Bruce Anderson may be one to watch if Jones doesn't learn how to play big boy football-IF he get's the chance then I'll go with flex appeal in PPR for sure
Shaun Wilson, Andre Ellington (Old Man), Dare Ogunbowale (special teams?) all RB's that if pressed into action will be spotty at best and if anyone is relying on them for fantsy points well you're probably playing for a high first round pick next year.

Deeper benches may want to keep Bobo Wilson and Justin Watson on speed dial incase one of the big 3 from above get injured.CHANGED WITH EDIT

we'll see.
"The only place success comes before work is the dictionary" ~Vince Lombardi
Mod - Sleeper U
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Comments

  • SmittySmitty Posts: 7,940
    edited January 10
    Nice, pal. I may do a team by team breakdown, so let me work on that and insert this bad boy into the TB slot. Nice job.
    - Smitty
    SleeperU.com
  • IcemanIceman Posts: 4,445
    Thnxs RBF... Good stuff
  • CoolHandCoolHand Posts: 7,083
    👍👍
  • Great info! Thanks RBF

  • Smitty said:

    I may do a team by team breakdown.

    That would be awesome!!

  • swampiesswampies Posts: 3,436
    Crazy to think that I might need to keep Peyton Barber where normally I would have dropped him before next season starts. Thank you for throwing in a wrench into my off season thinking rbf
    (I'm not a expert but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night!)
    SleeperU Forum Moderator
    USA
  • Hawk12Hawk12 Posts: 3,315
    nice team breakdown - if I recall Humphies will prob not be with TB next year. URFA
  • rabidbucfanrabidbucfan Posts: 3,648
    swampies said:

    Crazy to think that I might need to keep Peyton Barber where normally I would have dropped him before next season starts. Thank you for throwing in a wrench into my off season thinking rbf

    no prob - glad to help :)
    "The only place success comes before work is the dictionary" ~Vince Lombardi
    Mod - Sleeper U
  • rabidbucfanrabidbucfan Posts: 3,648
    Hawk12 said:

    nice team breakdown - if I recall Humphies will prob not be with TB next year. URFA

    correct @Hawk12 he is a URFA it would be in the Bucs best interest to try and retain him - we'll see what happens
    "The only place success comes before work is the dictionary" ~Vince Lombardi
    Mod - Sleeper U
  • Hawk12Hawk12 Posts: 3,315
    I think they have defense FAs to go get.... There are so many great D players that will be available just off the Eagles alone, TB should get someone from the Eagles alone IMO

    Not really sure they need Humphries if they choose to actually use OJ Howard....
  • IcemanIceman Posts: 4,445
    edited January 12
    That kid Watson seems to have some potential on the outside.
  • IcemanIceman Posts: 4,445

    DeSean Jackson - WR - Buccaneers

    NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports new Bucs coach Bruce Arians is attempting to convince DeSean Jackson to return to the Buccaneers next season.
    One of the first moves Arians reportedly made upon being hired was ask for Jackson's phone number. The two have yet to talk, but Arians has all the intention in the world in bringing the secondary-lifter back in 2019. Jackson would admittedly be an enticing Best Ball option in Arians' downfield full-throttle attack, but his presence would also likely keep Chris Godwin on limited reps for another year.
    Source: Ian Rapoport on Twitter
    Jan 12 - 11:40 AM
  • rabidbucfanrabidbucfan Posts: 3,648

    Howdy gang. The Bucs have a new sheriff in town. The one and only QB whisperer himself Bruce Arians so what does that mean for offensive production in the fantasy world. Here's my take for what it's worth.

    Arians has no problem with letting the QB sling the ball around. Mostly to the WR's.
    So players like Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Adam Humphries should be fine if not in for an uptick in usage.
    With the exception of 2009 in Pitt when Heath Miller got 98 targets alone (109 TE targets that year) putting the target to TE's at about 21% it looks like Arians offenses generally target TE's around 10% -14% of the time. That would put Brate and Howard right about where they have been production wise. However, IF Arians see Howard as a producer his numbers could go up.
    Running backs out of the back field. David Johnson had 1 year of stellar production in Arizona and that put the rush/pass attempts fairly close - the Bucs don't have a David Johnson. I love Peyton Barber as a football player and as a between the tackles runner. Hell he should be the starter next season imo. RoJo would have to have an amazing off season to become a usable target next season.

    So overall imo if the Bucs don't get any new skill players then the offensive scheme will be 60% pass / 40% rush with the WR's getting the lions share of the work and the QB being very busy.

    Fantasy impact for next season:

    Jamis Winston QB1 (hell he could have 5000 yds and 40 tds buyer beware may have 25 ints as well)
    Mike Evan WR1
    Chris Godwin solid WR2 with upside
    Adam Humphries world class Flex with upside to WR2 (he has to stop getting lit up though)-TRADED TO TITANS smh
    Bobo Wilson, Breshad Perriman, Justin Watson - one of these 3 will take over the WR3 spot - I'll call it solid Flex potential - personally I like Watson
    O.J. Howard TE2 with upside to TE1
    Cameron Brate TE2-has to heal up or Legget may get an opportunity to show his stuff
    Peyton Barber RB2 or solid Flex
    Ronald Jones TBD
    Bruce Anderson may be one to watch if Jones doesn't learn how to play big boy football-IF he get's the chance then I'll go with flex appeal in PPR for sure
    Shaun Wilson, Andre Ellington (Old Man), Dare Ogunbowale (special teams?) all RB's that if pressed into action will be spotty at best and if anyone is relying on them for fantsy points well you're probably playing for a high first round pick next year.

    Deeper benches may want to keep Bobo Wilson and Justin Watson on speed dial incase one of the big 3 from above get injured.CHANGED WITH EDIT

    we'll see.

    did some tweaks since things have changes since the original posting
    "The only place success comes before work is the dictionary" ~Vince Lombardi
    Mod - Sleeper U
  • WTCMWTCM Posts: 10,191
    How did I not see this earlier. Excellent work.
    I'm an asshole from:
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    Also creator of this:
  • Jintsfan66Jintsfan66 Posts: 410
    nice job on this, i own both Evans and Godwin.
    Team #1 QB - Watson, Ryan
    RB- L.Bell, McCoy, Mixon, Coleman, Morris, Ivory
    WR - Julio Jones, K. Allen, Landry, Woods, A. Callaway, K. Cole, Parker
    TE - Engram, Kittle
    K - Butker
    DEF - LAR

    Taxi Squad: A. Miller, C. Kirk, Guice

    Requirements: 1 QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1Flex RB/WR/TE, 1K, 1 DEF, 1 PPR


  • Whos_Ur_DoggieWhos_Ur_Doggie Posts: 4,556
    edited May 29
    Thoughts on rookie WR Anthony Johnson @rabidbucfan?
    SleeperU Forum Moderator
  • WTCMWTCM Posts: 10,191
    edited May 29

    Thoughts on rookie WR Anthony Johnson @rabidbucfan?

    Also, the Bucs have a secret weapon in Breshad Perriman...
    I'm an asshole from:
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    Also creator of this:
  • rabidbucfanrabidbucfan Posts: 3,648
    @Whos_Ur_Doggie
    oops forgot about him

    Well he's in the hunt with those 3 other guys. In reality the Bucs have a very good stable of receivers with depth. Ariens loves to air it out so I wouldn't be surprised to see all of these guys make the roster or practice squad to be called up to fill in for injuries.
    "The only place success comes before work is the dictionary" ~Vince Lombardi
    Mod - Sleeper U
  • JKnighton_9JKnighton_9 Posts: 184

    Thoughts on rookie WR Anthony Johnson @rabidbucfan?

    Look out for Scott Miller. He’s basically a John Brown clone as far as size and speed.
  • Whos_Ur_DoggieWhos_Ur_Doggie Posts: 4,556

    Thoughts on rookie WR Anthony Johnson @rabidbucfan?

    Look out for Scott Miller. He’s basically a John Brown clone as far as size and speed.
    Yep, good call.
    SleeperU Forum Moderator
  • Whos_Ur_DoggieWhos_Ur_Doggie Posts: 4,556
    WTCM said:

    Thoughts on rookie WR Anthony Johnson @rabidbucfan?

    Also, the Bucs have a secret weapon in Breshad Perriman...
    Will he be handing out water or Gatorade?
    SleeperU Forum Moderator
  • RamosianoRamosiano Posts: 131

    Thoughts on rookie WR Anthony Johnson @rabidbucfan?

    Look out for Scott Miller. He’s basically a John Brown clone as far as size and speed.
    He is similar to Andy Isabella in metrics and speed.

    But Justin Watson is the sleeper guy that I'm buying in TB. The new Humpries in the team.
  • rabidbucfanrabidbucfan Posts: 3,648
    Watson can be that Humphries guy.
    The issue is that Humphries got lit up and then went right back at it. Not all WR's are that resilient.
    "The only place success comes before work is the dictionary" ~Vince Lombardi
    Mod - Sleeper U
  • Whos_Ur_DoggieWhos_Ur_Doggie Posts: 4,556

    WTCM said:

    Thoughts on rookie WR Anthony Johnson @rabidbucfan?

    Also, the Bucs have a secret weapon in Breshad Perriman...
    Will he be handing out water or Gatorade?
    Now he can't even do that, lol.

    Perriman is not practicing Wednesday due to a shoulder injury, Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com reports.

    Analysis: The exact nature of Perriman's situation isn't clear. In any case, this isn't an ideal development for the beginning of his tenure with Tampa, especially given the receiver's lengthy medical record combined with the impressive chemistry he was building with quarterback Jameis Winston during the first few days of OTAs. When healthy, the 2015 first-rounder is expected to compete for the wide-open No. 3 receiving job under Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
    SleeperU Forum Moderator
  • DAXDAX Posts: 1,430
    any news on damarkus lodge?
  • rabidbucfanrabidbucfan Posts: 3,648
    DAX said:

    any news on damarkus lodge?

    Same as the rest of the wide receivers. I really think any of those guys can make the roster or be on the practice squad. If Watson, Rodger Wilson where to get cut they would probably get picked up by another team.
    "The only place success comes before work is the dictionary" ~Vince Lombardi
    Mod - Sleeper U
  • SmittySmitty Posts: 7,940
    Nice job
    - Smitty
    SleeperU.com
  • Rmadrid86Rmadrid86 Posts: 128
    DAX said:

    any news on damarkus lodge?

    I’m a fan of Lodge, picked him up with my last pick in my most recent rookie draft just on the upside he carries if he were to see the field. Pretty polished route runner with big play ability that could do well in that offense if he continues to work on his hands. Can make the wow play and drop a routine slant right after. Good upside tho waiting to hear some OTA news on him as well
  • rabidbucfanrabidbucfan Posts: 3,648

    Howdy gang. The Bucs have a new sheriff in town. The one and only QB whisperer himself Bruce Arians so what does that mean for offensive production in the fantasy world. Here's my take for what it's worth.

    Arians has no problem with letting the QB sling the ball around. Mostly to the WR's.
    So players like Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Adam Humphries should be fine if not in for an uptick in usage.
    With the exception of 2009 in Pitt when Heath Miller got 98 targets alone (109 TE targets that year) putting the target to TE's at about 21% it looks like Arians offenses generally target TE's around 10% -14% of the time. That would put Brate and Howard right about where they have been production wise. However, IF Arians see Howard as a producer his numbers could go up.
    Running backs out of the back field. David Johnson had 1 year of stellar production in Arizona and that put the rush/pass attempts fairly close - the Bucs don't have a David Johnson. I love Peyton Barber as a football player and as a between the tackles runner. Hell he should be the starter next season imo. RoJo would have to have an amazing off season to become a usable target next season.

    So overall imo if the Bucs don't get any new skill players then the offensive scheme will be 60% pass / 40% rush with the WR's getting the lions share of the work and the QB being very busy.

    Fantasy impact for next season:

    Jamis Winston QB1 (hell he could have 5000 yds and 40 tds buyer beware may have 25 ints as well)
    Mike Evan WR1
    Chris Godwin solid WR2 with upside
    Adam Humphries world class Flex with upside to WR2 (he has to stop getting lit up though)-TRADED TO TITANS smh
    Bobo Wilson, Breshad Perriman, Justin Watson - one of these 3 will take over the WR3 spot - I'll call it solid Flex potential - personally I like Watson
    O.J. Howard TE2 with upside to TE1
    Cameron Brate TE2-has to heal up or Legget may get an opportunity to show his stuff
    Peyton Barber RB2 or solid Flex
    Ronald Jones TBD
    Bruce Anderson may be one to watch if Jones doesn't learn how to play big boy football-IF he get's the chance then I'll go with flex appeal in PPR for sure
    Shaun Wilson, Andre Ellington (Old Man), Dare Ogunbowale (special teams?) all RB's that if pressed into action will be spotty at best and if anyone is relying on them for fantasy points well you're probably playing for a high first round pick next year.

    Deeper benches may want to keep Bobo Wilson and Justin Watson on speed dial in case one of the big 3 from above get injured.CHANGED WITH EDIT

    we'll see.

    edit 6/24/19

    Humphries is gone on to crappier pastures in Tenn.
    All this really does is move one of the Wilson, Perriman, Watson into the fold for sure. I'm pretty sure that none of them will be the human pinball that Humphries is. That doesn't mean whoever gets the gig won't be productive, I'm just not sure which guy it will be. DaMarkus Lodge is an UDFA that was brought it but nothing much has been said about him through the training camp so far. Was he a good route runner in College? Yup will that translate to anything in the NFL? Don't know. Keep an open mind and watch him on waiver wires near you.
    Ronald Jones - still a wait and see I'm still not a believer yet.
    "The only place success comes before work is the dictionary" ~Vince Lombardi
    Mod - Sleeper U
  • WTCMWTCM Posts: 10,191
    New scheme in TB, i wouldn't be shocked if Jones became the starter and puts up high RB2 numbers in that offense
    I'm an asshole from:
    Montreal, Canada  image
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