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I decided who my 1.7 pick will be - rookie draft

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Comments

  • OdellBeckhamSrOdellBeckhamSr Posts: 2,970
    Take what I said with a grain of salt.......the Broncos haven't been able to guard a TE for 5 years. Every TE goes off on them.
  • WTCMWTCM Posts: 10,626
    Do you know how many studs excel in he combine and college and fail in the NFL? A lot can happen.
    I'm an asshole from:
    Montreal, Canada  image
    Also creator of this:
  • bruceflashbruceflash Posts: 126
    @WTCM Of course. But you need to play the percentages when it comes to stuff like this. In blackjack, if you're holding a 12 and the dealer is showing a 15, you stand. If the dealer somehow hits a 6, that's gambling but at least you made the right play strategically and over time that should work in you're favor. Apply that to fantasy football. Look at the Top 10 RBs right now in terms of ADP. All of them have above average speed and the great ones have above average athleticism. Arian Foster comes around once a decade. He's an outlier. So to answer the main question on this thread, "who should I take at the 1.07 in a rookie only draft", I'm not going to take a risk on a guy like Singletary who performed below average at every single combine drill. I'm on the right side of history with that statement. Risks are for later round picks hence why I'm trying to tell people to take Singletary at the end of the 2nd round. The value of Singletary is in redraft leagues as he's viewed as a high end back-up with only McCoy and Gore in front of him. But you're putting all your money on 26 black on the roulette table if you're taking Singletary at 1.07. Not my kind of odds.
  • WTCMWTCM Posts: 10,626
    Game of chance.
    I'm an asshole from:
    Montreal, Canada  image
    Also creator of this:
  • HellAtlanticHellAtlantic Posts: 753

    @WTCM Of course. But you need to play the percentages when it comes to stuff like this. In blackjack, if you're holding a 12 and the dealer is showing a 15, you stand. If the dealer somehow hits a 6, that's gambling but at least you made the right play strategically and over time that should work in you're favor. Apply that to fantasy football. Look at the Top 10 RBs right now in terms of ADP. All of them have above average speed and the great ones have above average athleticism. Arian Foster comes around once a decade. He's an outlier. So to answer the main question on this thread, "who should I take at the 1.07 in a rookie only draft", I'm not going to take a risk on a guy like Singletary who performed below average at every single combine drill. I'm on the right side of history with that statement. Risks are for later round picks hence why I'm trying to tell people to take Singletary at the end of the 2nd round. The value of Singletary is in redraft leagues as he's viewed as a high end back-up with only McCoy and Gore in front of him. But you're putting all your money on 26 black on the roulette table if you're taking Singletary at 1.07. Not my kind of odds.

    I agree 100% with this.
  • HellAtlanticHellAtlantic Posts: 753
    WTCM said:

    Game of chance.


    I wouldn’t refer to it as that. Game of chance. That infers you can select an undrafted RB with a poor combine and he has a chance to finish top 5 in RB scoring. Is there a chance that happens? Sure. Would I bet on that happening? Nope. I think it’s more a numbers game. The numbers, the odds, say certain types of players pan out. I’ll play the numbers. Save my risks for a later round.
  • G_MenG_Men Posts: 2,618
    Hm.. what about LeSean McCoy to KC ?
  • HellAtlanticHellAtlantic Posts: 753
    edited August 15
    Ok so my rookie draft was tonight:

    1.1 Jacobs
    1.2 Montgomery
    1.3 Sanders (my pick)
    1.4 Dk Metcalf
    1.5 Parris Campbell
    1.6 Singletary
    1.7 N’Keal Harry (my pick. I really wanted to take TJ Hockenson here but to have the overall consensus #1 ranked WR fall here I had to jump on this. Jakobi can do whatever he wants it doesn’t change the fact that Harry was drafted in the first round by the Pats and Jakobi was undrafted. Harry’s not going anywhere.)
    1.8 Kyler Murray (was hoping he’d slip to the 2nd round but I did enough research on him to know I’m ok not getting him.)
    1.9 Henderson
    1.10 TJ Hockenson (really wanted this guy but I’m ok with getting.....)

    2.1 Noah Fant (my pick. I wanted one of these two TEs, whichever one fell to me at this pick. Hockenson is the more complete player but with Fant’s monstrous combine he’s certainly not a distant 2nd consolation prize).
    2.2 Justice Hill
    2.3 JJ Whiteside
    2.3 AJ Brown (my pick. Again, he fell all the way to this spot, I had other plans for this pick but had to jump on this for the sheer opportunity to snag a consensus top 8 rookie pick in the mid 2nd round. Getting Brown at this spot is the equivalent of getting a 3rd first round pick. Would’ve thought Singletary would’ve slipped to this spot but you have keep your head on a swivel during a draft and sometimes the draft God’s will present an opportunity for you to pounce on.)

    I had no more picks at this point and left the draft room so i don’t know how the rest of the draft went.
  • bruceflashbruceflash Posts: 126
    Wow! That's a great draft! So funny. People always overdraft (Singletary) or underdraft (Brown) based on their current situation. All it takes is a QB or coaching change to completely flip things around. Draft the talent, not the situation. Too many dynasty owners can't get out of seasonal league mindset.
  • HellAtlanticHellAtlantic Posts: 753

    Wow! That's a great draft! So funny. People always overdraft (Singletary) or underdraft (Brown) based on their current situation. All it takes is a QB or coaching change to completely flip things around. Draft the talent, not the situation. Too many dynasty owners can't get out of seasonal league mindset.

    I have learned this in my research this year - this yrs Titans can turn into next year’s Browns or Cardinals. It can all change in the matter of a year - it doesn’t change the fact that talent rises to the top eventually. To me this is a steal of a draft for me. It’s very obvious the guy who drafted Singletary did the preliminary research - “Singletary is highly likely to be the RB1 for the Bills this year”, but he didn’t dig deeper about Singletary’s absolutely poor combine and the fact that as a 5’7” player outside of MJD that Jacquizz Rodgers is his closest comp at that height and not many RBs that small become anything.
  • bruceflashbruceflash Posts: 126
    The path to early playing time is a trap. Dynasty league fantasy football is a long game.
  • wickerkat1212wickerkat1212 Posts: 1,735
    awesome
    D3:
    QB—Roethlisberger, Mariota, Allen, Tannehill, Rudolph
    RB—EE, Cohen, Henry, EMcGuire, JSamuels, Pollard, Adams
    WR—MThomas, Diggs, Harry, Hardman, Zay, Amendola, Meredith, Chark
    TE—Burton, Doyle, Knox, Jonnu, Shaheen
    PK—Zuerlain
    DEF—Ravens

    D4:
    QB—Watson, Winston, Fitzpatrick
    RB—Conner, Cohen, Howard, DWilliams, JSamuels, Snell, CEdmonds, JJackson
    WR—Hill, Allen, Golladay, Jeffery, Amendola, Miller, Cain, Dorsett, Perriman
    TE—Olsen, IThomas, Gesicki, McDonald, Waller
    PK—Gostkowski
    DEF—Rams, Jags
  • farfromhomefarfromhome Posts: 1,508
    Hock going one pick before u.... Doh!!!!
  • farfromhomefarfromhome Posts: 1,508
    Highest I've seen Metcalf go..... Can't fault it really with these rookies being so close
  • HellAtlanticHellAtlantic Posts: 753
    edited August 15

    Highest I've seen Metcalf go..... Can't fault it really with these rookies being so close

    Yeah I wasn’t expecting the draft to play out like this. Didn’t do much research on Harry or Brown because I didn’t expect them to be available at my picks. I just knew they were pretty good and ranked pretty high for them to be some really good bargains when they were still available when it was my time to pick. Say what you want about Brown being on the Titans - Hopkins got his no matter who the QB was. A team could be run heavy all they want but when you’re down by 20 you’re gonna be passing.
  • Hawk12Hawk12 Posts: 3,479
    that is called letting the draft come to you!! Nicely done and taking the talent and stepping away from being locked in on a position when the talent came to you.
  • RamosianoRamosiano Posts: 280
    Great draft
  • HellAtlanticHellAtlantic Posts: 753
    edited August 19
    My draft is over. I feel I got a lot of the guys I wanted. My strategy for this year, for the first time, I decided to play for next year and this year was all about collecting assets I can keep and then with my 3 2020 first round rookie picks I’m gonna go all in. This was a rebuilding year. As hard as it was to pass on a lot of studs I decided keeping everyone at a low cost would be better so I can keep them next year. This is probably my weakest roster I ever drafted but i wanted certain guys to make my move next yr.

    QB Cam Newton $9.25
    QB Lamar Jackson $1.50
    QB Josh Allen $1
    QB Daniel Jones $1.75
    (My strategy for QBs was basically to go for rushing QBs, they tend to outplay their ADP. If Jones plays in less than 3 games this year his salary goes down to $1 next yr.)

    RB Miles Sanders $4
    RB Duke Johnson $10.75
    RB Philip Lindsay $23.75
    RB Damien Williams $40
    RB Kareem Hunt $12
    RB LeSean McCoy $7
    RB Jaylen Samuels $11
    RB Carlos Hyde $2.75
    (My plan wasn’t to spend $40 on Damien Williams but I had the cash and I knew I would lock up Hyde, getting KC RB for $42 total isn’t horrible. I hope Hunt moves to another team next year, i spent a little more than I intended and I’m banking on him being more valuable this time next year.)

    WR N’Keal Harry $2.50
    WR Calvin Ridley $3
    WR AJ Brown $1
    WR AJ Green $27
    WR Marquise Brown $3.25
    WR DeSean Jackson $.75
    (All lottery tickets. Marquise Brown was one of the steals of the draft because even though this is a veteran 20 yr league he somehow went undrafted in the 3 round rookie draft. I stole him. I essentially got a free first round rookie pick with this pick.)

    TE David Njoku $3.25
    TE Mark Andrews $5
    TE Noah Fant $1
    (Very happy with my TE corps. I didn’t want to spend that much for Andrews but he’s a good candidate to be traded.)

    K Will Lutz $1
    D Chargers D $2.50

    Not my greatest team I drafted but I’m optimistic about the keeper potential of this group. I go all in next year. This was just about collecting assets.
  • bruceflashbruceflash Posts: 126
    Just hope Darwin Thompson doesn't fill in that back up role in Kansas City
  • HellAtlanticHellAtlantic Posts: 753
    Can’t have ‘em all! He was drafted in the rookie draft so he wasn’t in play for me during the free agent portion of the draft.
  • boyzballboyzball Posts: 488

    Just hope Darwin Thompson doesn't fill in that back up role in Kansas City

    I'd try to roster this guy!
    In this life you find something to live for and do it. If you can't find nothing to live for then find something or someone to die for dammit. ~ Quote from wise man ~
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