fantasy football bold predictions sleepers breakouts iheart radio the fantasy football show

Join me 1 HOUR before SUN Kickoff (1pm EST) on my YOUTUBE Show... Ask questions live!

I decided who my 1.7 pick will be - rookie draft

HellAtlanticHellAtlantic Posts: 1,036
edited August 9 in Rookies
I’m going to take Miles Sanders with my 3rd overall, and i also have the 7th overall, 11th overall and 14th overall. A lot of picks considering this is viewed as a weak draft.

For my 7th overall pick:

T.J. Hockenson

Pretty early for a rookie TE, but let me ask you - if you could take the next Gronk or Kelce or Kittle or Ertz and all it cost was the 7th overall pick in a rookie draft would you do it? I would.

If Kyler Murray is available at #11 I will take him there. If Noah Fant is available at #14 I will take him there. I really really like Fant - his metrics are off the charts. I have to go with Hockenson first though because TEs who are natural blockers never leave the field. Kyler’s metrics have him compared to Russel Wilson. He’d only cost me $1 to start off with.

I’d love to take RB or WR with picks 7, 11 and 14 but I want to hit on all those picks, not take hopes and dreams with those picks.
«1

Comments

  • TheDudeTheDude Posts: 2,142
    Two main $ dynasty drafts I grabbed Hockenson at 1.07.

    FWIW, Murray went 1.10 and 1.11. Sanders 1.06 and 1.04

  • HellAtlanticHellAtlantic Posts: 1,036
    edited August 9
    That’s excellent brother. I read in a fantasy article first round of rookie drafts you go for talent regardless of position, 2nd/3rd round+ you draft for upside. I need to hit on my first round picks. I got burned one year taking Devante Parker and burned in another year with Josh Doctson. I need to check who was available those years that I missed out on.

    If Sanders went 1.04 I’m assuming someone took Harry with one of the first three picks?

    I’m trying to determine what order I should grab my guys. Rookie QB/TE tends to be undervalued in my big money league. I know i can take Hockenson at 1.7, 11th overall might be the sweet spot for Kyler. I’d love to get Fant at 14th overall, that would be a win for me in this rookie draft as far as getting my guys. Consolation prize at #14 for me would be Justice Hill or JJ Arcega-Whiteside, who I wouldn’t expect to contribute but expect to be the WR2 next season when the Eagles let Agholor go after this season.

    If I can get Hockenson and Fant I wouldnt have to worry about TE for the next 4 years in my league.
  • wickerkat1212wickerkat1212 Posts: 1,891
    Love it. I'd do the same thing. THOUGH, keep an eye on Singletary in the mix there, too. If you get Hock, I might take him instead of Fant. But taking both increases the chances one will pan out. Also, if Monty is there at three take him over Sanders. TRUST ME.
    D3:
    QB—Roethlisberger, Mariota, Allen, Tannehill, Rudolph
    RB—EE, Cohen, Henry, EMcGuire, JSamuels, Pollard, Adams
    WR—MThomas, Diggs, Harry, Hardman, Zay, Amendola, Meredith, Chark
    TE—Burton, Doyle, Knox, Jonnu, Shaheen
    PK—Zuerlain
    DEF—Ravens

    D4:
    QB—Watson, Winston, Fitzpatrick
    RB—Conner, Cohen, Howard, DWilliams, JSamuels, Snell, CEdmonds, JJackson
    WR—Hill, Allen, Golladay, Jeffery, Amendola, Miller, Cain, Dorsett, Perriman
    TE—Olsen, IThomas, Gesicki, McDonald, Waller
    PK—Gostkowski
    DEF—Rams, Jags
  • HellAtlanticHellAtlantic Posts: 1,036
    edited August 9
    Yes, even though it was only preseason week 1 Montgomery averaged I think 8ypc and Sanders had like 3 carries for 3 yards or something similar. Just preseason but if I can get Monty I’d jump on it. Hoping the fact that Tarik is on the team will concern other owners who might think Monty isn’t a good fit for PPR but I’d much rather him than Sanders. Just being realistic as I think first 3 picks in my league where RB is hard to get 1. Jacobs 2. Montgomery and then 3. Sanders.

    Fant might be overkill, I know, but his metrics have his comp as Kittle. Kittle! His metrics/combine were off the charts. Hard to pass up, it’s just Hockenson is the more complete TE and you always want your TE to be good at blocking or else his upside will just be Jared Cook. It’s the Gronk/Kelce’s of the world that win leagues.
  • wickerkat1212wickerkat1212 Posts: 1,891
    I've seen Harry go top three, as well as Jacobs, Monty, and Sanders, so you COULD get lucky. Sanders will take over in PHI eventually, probably next year IMO. Monty is going to be the man NOW. Cohen will still get his, especially in PPR leagues.
    D3:
    QB—Roethlisberger, Mariota, Allen, Tannehill, Rudolph
    RB—EE, Cohen, Henry, EMcGuire, JSamuels, Pollard, Adams
    WR—MThomas, Diggs, Harry, Hardman, Zay, Amendola, Meredith, Chark
    TE—Burton, Doyle, Knox, Jonnu, Shaheen
    PK—Zuerlain
    DEF—Ravens

    D4:
    QB—Watson, Winston, Fitzpatrick
    RB—Conner, Cohen, Howard, DWilliams, JSamuels, Snell, CEdmonds, JJackson
    WR—Hill, Allen, Golladay, Jeffery, Amendola, Miller, Cain, Dorsett, Perriman
    TE—Olsen, IThomas, Gesicki, McDonald, Waller
    PK—Gostkowski
    DEF—Rams, Jags
  • boyzballboyzball Posts: 1,224
    I like Jacobs, he is immediately getting the work and the most likely workhorse. Don't sleep on Damien Harris, he is the best back out of the all of them. Like Singletary too.
    In this life you find something to live for and do it. If you can't find nothing to live for then find something or someone to die for dammit. ~ Quote from wise man ~
  • RamosianoRamosiano Posts: 418
    1.05 Hockenson value for me...

    1.07 would be great for you

    1.08, 1.09 for Murray would be great too, he is a top6 QB for Dynasty imo

    Fant doesn't convice me yet, in 1.14 I prefer JJAW
  • HellAtlanticHellAtlantic Posts: 1,036
    Dammit I think you’re right, get my Hockenson at 1.7, hope Murray is available with 2.1 and grab whichever out of Singletary or Harris at 2.4. Every league is different and in my league rookie TE’s are not valued high so I’m almost 100% certain Hockenson will be available with the 7th overall pick.
  • farfromhomefarfromhome Posts: 1,663
    My biggest weakness as an owner is my lack of patience... Rookie tight ends demand that... Having said that... He appears to be better then 99% of them that have came out the past 20 years
  • HellAtlanticHellAtlantic Posts: 1,036
    edited August 9
    I have David Njoku on my team already as my TE1. Hockenson would at best be a flex play if he pans out this year, at worst a bye week fill-in. I can definitely afford to wait since i wouldn’t rely on him year 1 so he’d be an excellent long term keeper play that I know will get better as the years go by unlike most other guys we all pinned our hopes on. Hockenson’s price as the 1.7 would be $2.50 and in my league TEs salary raise at a much lower rate than other positions so I can literally keep him for 4 years. My rookie draft is this Thursday and I can’t wait.
  • farfromhomefarfromhome Posts: 1,663
    Mine is tomorrow with similar decisions to make as u with pick 3...5....13.....been playing this shit for a long long time and can't remember a more interesting rookie pool to choose from.... I'm pulling teeth trying to value these guys..
  • HellAtlanticHellAtlantic Posts: 1,036
    You’re right this is an interesting rookie pool. The elite talent are at positions that aren’t typically valued in rookie drafts and there’s no sure thing at WR.
  • OdellBeckhamSrOdellBeckhamSr Posts: 3,102
    I don’t like it. But it’s your call. Paris Campbell for me
  • farfromhomefarfromhome Posts: 1,663
    For reference... my draft went down

    Jacobs
    Sanders
    Monty.. Me : )
    Harry
    Henderson... Me : )
  • Whos_Ur_DoggieWhos_Ur_Doggie Posts: 4,985

    For reference... my draft went down

    Jacobs
    Sanders
    Monty.. Me : )
    Harry
    Henderson... Me : )

    Nice draft so far.
    SleeperU Forum Moderator
  • WTCMWTCM Posts: 11,485

    My biggest weakness as an owner is my lack of patience... Rookie tight ends demand that... Having said that... He appears to be better then 99% of them that have came out the past 20 years

    Didn't they say the same thing about Mike Gesicki last year?
    I'm an asshole from:
    Montreal, Canada  image
    Also creator of this:
  • TheDudeTheDude Posts: 2,142
    WTCM said:

    My biggest weakness as an owner is my lack of patience... Rookie tight ends demand that... Having said that... He appears to be better then 99% of them that have came out the past 20 years

    Didn't they say the same thing about Mike Gesicki last year?
    Yep, right up until it he went to MIA

  • chaindog35chaindog35 Posts: 474
    Hockensen was a top TE pick the NFL draft. That’s pretty rarefied air for a TE. 1.7 may be slightly early for a TE, but in this class I like it. Can’t argue with Murray at #11 given his upside. I would pass on Fant at #14 though. News from camp I have heard he is dropping a fair amount of passes and he had issues with that at Iowa. He’s a great athlete, so hopefully he can correct the drops, but that’s my one concern on him. I would probably look best available WR or Singletary at #14.
  • HellAtlanticHellAtlantic Posts: 1,036
    Dammit now you guys have me doubting my strategy!!! I was so confident too! My rookie draft is this Thursday so I gotta go back to the research lab.
  • HellAtlanticHellAtlantic Posts: 1,036

    Hockensen was a top TE pick the NFL draft. That’s pretty rarefied air for a TE. 1.7 may be slightly early for a TE, but in this class I like it. Can’t argue with Murray at #11 given his upside. I would pass on Fant at #14 though. News from camp I have heard he is dropping a fair amount of passes and he had issues with that at Iowa. He’s a great athlete, so hopefully he can correct the drops, but that’s my one concern on him. I would probably look best available WR or Singletary at #14.

    That’s great research. I didn’t know that about Fant. I’ll have to fade him and just go for an upside RB like Singletary or my dark horse pick Damien Harris.
  • HellAtlanticHellAtlantic Posts: 1,036
    edited August 12
    Ok I did some additional research and TJ Hockenson is still my choice for 1.7. He’s gonna be a good one in short time.
  • JasJas Posts: 67
    edited August 12



    For my 7th overall pick:

    T.J. Hockenson

    Pretty early for a rookie TE, but let me ask you - if you could take the next Gronk or Kelce or Kittle or Ertz and all it cost was the 7th overall pick in a rookie draft would you do it? I would.

    I selected Kittle in 2017 in the 24 round redraft. I was thinking he would be a starter on a team with no WRs, Plus Kyle Shanahan.
    I like Hockenson tape. Lions coach is bad, He won’t make it through the season. Lions are a revolving door. Hockenson is worth the pick. Fant is not IMO.
    I’m just not sold on sanders.
  • HellAtlanticHellAtlantic Posts: 1,036
    I did some research on Devin Singletary, I’m sorry I can’t invest a pick in him. He’s 5’7, leaving aside his horrible combine I looked up NFL RBs who are 5’7 and the results aren’t impressive:

    - Jacquizz Rodgers
    - MJD

    You might say MJD is a pretty good example of a 5’7 finding success in the NFL - MJD had a phenomenal combine.

    Regardless, there are not many instances of guys Singletarys height being of much value. If I pick him it’d most probably be a wasted pick. I’d settle for Justice Hill or Damien Harris.
  • bruceflashbruceflash Posts: 190
    @HellAtlantic You and me are the only ones in this forum that are on the anti-Singletary train. Funny that you mention Quizz Rodgers because that was my comp in a different post in this forum. I can already tell from other posts that you're an analytics guy. So am I. Smitty is an eye test guy. He even admits it in one of his bold prediction takes. So an undersized, unathletic RB who has "game speed" and is "more quick than fast" (ignore the poor 3 cone and short shuttle drills though) that dominated in a small school conference will pass the eye test with flying colors. But truth is in the eye of the beholder. Smitty doubled down on Singletary after watching the first pre-season game raving about his agility. I saw a guy who averaged 3 yards per carry against guys who may not be in the league. But Singletary is worth drafting as a late 2nd rounder in rookie only drafts hoping he becomes another Arian Foster. But at the 1.07? No way!
  • WTCMWTCM Posts: 11,485
    Barry Sanders was how tall again? 5'8" He didn't do much either lol
    I'm an asshole from:
    Montreal, Canada  image
    Also creator of this:
  • bruceflashbruceflash Posts: 190
    @WTCM If you're undersized, you better be fast. Sanders definitely fit that category. Singletary not so much.
  • HellAtlanticHellAtlantic Posts: 1,036
    edited August 12

    @WTCM If you're undersized, you better be fast. Sanders definitely fit that category. Singletary not so much.

    And there’s also the little fact that Barry Sanders, though 5’8”, set 34 NCAA records and was the 3rd overall pick in his rookie draft:

    Sanders set 34 NCAA Division I FBS records in his college career, and still holds the following records:

    Most rushing yards in a season: 2,628
    Most rushing touchdowns in a season: 37
    Most touchdowns in a season: 39 (tied with Montee Ball)
    Most games rushing for 300+ yards in a season and career: 4
    Highest average rushing yards per game in a season: 238.9
    Most points scored in a season: 234



    Singletary has nothing resembling this college resume. If he’s there by my 2.4 pick I might consider him since you’re swinging for the fences at that pick anyway. Even if he takes over this year I’m not seeing a 4-5 year career as the unquestioned starter.
  • OdellBeckhamSrOdellBeckhamSr Posts: 3,102
    Ray Rice may be a better comparison. Rice was a tough SOB thou- so Singletary has some big holes to fill.

    The real news on Fant is that nobody on the Broncos D can guard him, he blocks better than expected, had a few drops in camp & dropped his 1st ball in Preseason. But overall he should start & Flacco likes him already. 50/650/7 is my rookie projection of Fant. Only 1 TE has had a G bar in their rookie year.
  • HellAtlanticHellAtlantic Posts: 1,036
    Dammit I’m liking what I’m hearing about Fant. His metrics especially at the combine are off the charts. I think he’s a better Jared Cook (as his floor) although I’ve seen his closest comp is Kittle (probably his ceiling). TJ Hock is more of a complete package.
  • bruceflashbruceflash Posts: 190
    They're playing him for a majority of the plays with the first unit in the pre-season. The thing I'm encouraged by is that the Broncos are using him almost exclusively as the inline TE. Getting those extra 2 to 4 goal line flip TDs around the end zone can push him up to low TE1/high TE2 status. I was nervous they would only play him out wide.
Sign In or Register to comment.