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What RB NOT in anyone's top 10 could be a top 4RB in 2019?

SmittySmitty Posts: 8,464
in Bold Predictions
Who you got?
- Smitty
SleeperU.com
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Comments

  • G_MenG_Men Posts: 2,913
    Who is possible?

    If things go right for them.. would probably require an injury or CMac’s weight gain slowing him down..

    Aaron Jones
    Damien Williams
    Conner / Samuels
    Gurley / Henderson

    Top 5 is hard to break without massive TD / catch rates. So I named some guys that are candidates for those stats.
  • rabidbucfanrabidbucfan Posts: 4,268
    edited July 6
    Use my adp info lol. Round 5 or later ppr
    Guice
    Ekler
    Coleman
    Penny
    Carson
    Samuels
    Henderson
    D. Freeman
    R. Freeman
    Davis

    Edit:
    I know this was a "top 4" question
    The bold Coleman and D. Freeman have the most potential to make a run at it.
    Do I really think any of the other guys could be top 4? Not without a number of injuries and/or catastrophic events happening to at least a dozen RBs. But, there is a fractional probability so there's that.

    Do I think any/some of these guys could break into the top 10? Yes. There is about a 20% chance that a RB picked after the 5th round can end up in the top 10 statistically at the end of the season. So, why not.

    happy drafting
    "The only place success comes before work is the dictionary" ~Vince Lombardi
    Mod - Sleeper U
  • G_MenG_Men Posts: 2,913
    I guess we could add Freeman, he’s done it before.
  • SMFFCNSMFFCN Posts: 2,093
    edited July 6
    I know you’re not a fan on his situation but I think there’s a decent chance Joe Mixon flirts with top 4 numbers.

    Edit: didn’t notice the “anyone’s top 10” part. I still vote Mixon, lol.
  • wickerkat1212wickerkat1212 Posts: 1,845
    Damien and Henderson come to mind. For rookies, Monty and JJ.
    D3:
    QB—Roethlisberger, Mariota, Allen, Tannehill, Rudolph
    RB—EE, Cohen, Henry, EMcGuire, JSamuels, Pollard, Adams
    WR—MThomas, Diggs, Harry, Hardman, Zay, Amendola, Meredith, Chark
    TE—Burton, Doyle, Knox, Jonnu, Shaheen
    PK—Zuerlain
    DEF—Ravens

    D4:
    QB—Watson, Winston, Fitzpatrick
    RB—Conner, Cohen, Howard, DWilliams, JSamuels, Snell, CEdmonds, JJackson
    WR—Hill, Allen, Golladay, Jeffery, Amendola, Miller, Cain, Dorsett, Perriman
    TE—Olsen, IThomas, Gesicki, McDonald, Waller
    PK—Gostkowski
    DEF—Rams, Jags
  • PDTDTPDTDT Posts: 656
    Call me a homer, Bengals fan, but I like Mixon with new scheme and coaching, heck, any back from AFC North
    Cousins, Dalton
    DJohnson, DCook, JHoward
    AJGreen, DHop, SDiggs
    DNjoku
  • G_MenG_Men Posts: 2,913
    edited July 6
    I think there’s a path for Marlon Mack as a dark horse candidate behind that oline.

    Mack put up 1,000 yards and 10 TDs in 12 games last year. Not impossible to envision an “AP” -like season with massive yardage and TDs
  • boyzballboyzball Posts: 1,224
    Damien and Mack!
    In this life you find something to live for and do it. If you can't find nothing to live for then find something or someone to die for dammit. ~ Quote from wise man ~
  • Rmadrid86Rmadrid86 Posts: 148
    D. Henderson
    D. Henry
  • GuinnessIsGoodForYouGuinnessIsGoodForYou Posts: 8,499
    Hendy
    Coleman

    I love Cohen to outplay his adp, but the only way he hits top 4 is if Monty gets hurt.

    Drake is another guy that I think is way undervalued. I don’t know why nobody believes in him, but I think the coaching change makes him a huge break out candidate. I’m trading for him in all my leagues! That being said, I don’t think he reaches top 4 numbers (due to his surrounding cast - or lack there of).

  • georgegeorge Posts: 483
    Josh Jacobs
  • OdellBeckhamSrOdellBeckhamSr Posts: 3,057
    Phillip Lindsay
  • georgegeorge Posts: 483
    I can see Phillip Lindsay
  • DAXDAX Posts: 1,633
    Is Chubb outside the top 10? He will definitely be top 4 moving forward.
  • BashmanBashman Posts: 268
    I'm going with Kerryon Johnson...He averaged 5.4 yds per carry and nearly 7 yds per reception. If Kerryon gets 15-20 touches per game, I think a 1300/80/500/8 season is possible. I think CJ could steal some short yardage and goal line looks, but a healthy KJ is clearly Detroit's best 3 down back in years and he could crack the top 4 in PPR. Detroit also hired Darrell Bevell as their OC, who is best known for the power running game he established in Seattle.

    I also like Ingram to surprise...I think he could finish 2019 with 1100/50/400/10 IF Baltimore can establish a passing game. Not enough for the top 4, but maybe top 10.
    10 Team IDP/PPR Dynasty League (19 Keepers plus 4 Taxi Squad Players)  Start:  1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB/WR/TE Flex, 2 DL, 3 LB, 2 DB - Must cut rosters down to 19 Active & 4 TS during the off-season
    QB:  Rodgers, Newton, Watson   RB:  David Johnson, Bell, Ingram, K. Johnson WR: Hopkins, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Landry, Cook TE:  Kelce, Howard PK: TBD    DL:  Hunter, JPP LB:  Kuechly, E. Kendricks, Alexander, Martinez DB: Adams 
    Taxi:  Westbrook (WR), C. Godwin (WR), Washington (WR), Pettis (WR)
  • rabidbucfanrabidbucfan Posts: 4,268
    hey good to see ya @Bashman
    "The only place success comes before work is the dictionary" ~Vince Lombardi
    Mod - Sleeper U
  • WTCMWTCM Posts: 11,186
    Aaron Jones, David Montgomery and Rashaad Penny.
    I'm an asshole from:
    Montreal, Canada  image
    Also creator of this:
  • dirtbagsdirtbags Posts: 24
    Philip Lindsay
  • Hawk12Hawk12 Posts: 3,520
    What RB NOT in anyone's top 10 could be a top 4RB in 2019?

    Jordan Howard - - - I've said it on here a few times that Sanders is not picking up the offense, and it came out again today. Sanders is not learning blocking well at all, he's behind in the passing routes, and that was due to a hamgstring in OTAs & he's still behind now....

    We all knew Howard was going to be the 1-2 down back, and goal line back. He's been doing great as a pass catcher all off season and has worked at it very hard with Carson. These two factors (Howard putting in the work, and Sanders not learning the option blocking / option pass routes for a RB in this offense) are going to have have Howard see more downs and more opportunity than most of you think. Add in the contract Howard is on, and the team is likely going to crush him wiht touches as Sanders sits and learns on film all year.

    I have said it before, 250-275 carries at 4.0-4.2 YPC puts Hoard at 1,000-1,155 yards, I'm not out of line with 10TDs in this offense, add in 40-60 receptions at 8-11 YPC (big variance here) 320-660 rec. yards and 4-8 more rec TDs - - BOOM

    I think that lands Howard at 256 pts on the FLOOR and 342 points on the high end (PPR scoring)


    Those numbers are not out of line, Jordan Howard is my sneaky top 4 RB pick here.
  • G_MenG_Men Posts: 2,913
    edited July 9
    Not saying he doesn’t have a chance to be solid, but he has stone hands. His career high reception is at 29.. but if he somehow manages to get 60, then it’s doable.

    There’s at least this:

    https://247sports.com/nfl/philadelphia-eagles/Article/Jordan-Howard-Eagles-coaches-impressed-pass-catching--132434299/
  • Hawk12Hawk12 Posts: 3,520
    G_Men said:

    Not saying he doesn’t have a chance to be solid, but he has stone hands. His career high reception is at 29.. but if he somehow manages to get 60, then it’s doable.

    There’s at least this:

    https://247sports.com/nfl/philadelphia-eagles/Article/Jordan-Howard-Eagles-coaches-impressed-pass-catching--132434299/

    that is why I took the time to estimate carries and stats ranges .
  • Hawk12Hawk12 Posts: 3,520
    I think that is an accurate representation of what to expect - my belief is that Jordan Howard will catch more passes than ever in his career so far, and he's got potential to double his previous yearly high...

    So 60 is on target for his ceiling IMO. New system, new coach, new QB, and he's putting in the work per word on the street.
  • Hawk12Hawk12 Posts: 3,520
    Remember that year where Demarco Murray exploded and wore his body down - you know the last year in Dallas - that is exactly what I see happening here. The Eagles are going to crush his legs mad, and move on next year.......................
  • wickerkat1212wickerkat1212 Posts: 1,845
    I agree, I think Howard will surprise. If I'm rolling him out as my RB2 or even my RB3 I'm happy.
    D3:
    QB—Roethlisberger, Mariota, Allen, Tannehill, Rudolph
    RB—EE, Cohen, Henry, EMcGuire, JSamuels, Pollard, Adams
    WR—MThomas, Diggs, Harry, Hardman, Zay, Amendola, Meredith, Chark
    TE—Burton, Doyle, Knox, Jonnu, Shaheen
    PK—Zuerlain
    DEF—Ravens

    D4:
    QB—Watson, Winston, Fitzpatrick
    RB—Conner, Cohen, Howard, DWilliams, JSamuels, Snell, CEdmonds, JJackson
    WR—Hill, Allen, Golladay, Jeffery, Amendola, Miller, Cain, Dorsett, Perriman
    TE—Olsen, IThomas, Gesicki, McDonald, Waller
    PK—Gostkowski
    DEF—Rams, Jags
  • WTCMWTCM Posts: 11,186
    I'm not going to start comparing apples to oranges lol
    I'm an asshole from:
    Montreal, Canada  image
    Also creator of this:
  • MVPMVP Posts: 330
    Why hasn't anyone mentioned Devonte Freeman?
  • TheDudeTheDude Posts: 2,129
    MVP said:

    Why hasn't anyone mentioned Devonte Freeman?

    Could it be we (collectively and me personally) do not think he is top 4 capable?

    @Hawk12 I like your breakdown on Howard. I was kinda stuck with him in a single dynasty. Maybe I'll ride him through a few games and sell. Also a sneaky play for @Smitty zero RB play.

  • farfromhomefarfromhome Posts: 1,641
    Someone mention Howard? : )
  • WTCMWTCM Posts: 11,186
    farfromhome said:

    Someone mention Howard? : )

    Oh @farfromhome... Hey since we're throwing out randoms, Nick Chubb
    I'm an asshole from:
    Montreal, Canada  image
    Also creator of this:
  • G_MenG_Men Posts: 2,913
    MVP said:

    Why hasn't anyone mentioned Devonte Freeman?

    He was mentioned

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