Howdy gang. The Bucs have a new sheriff in town. The one and only QB whisperer himself Bruce Arians so what does that mean for offensive production in the fantasy world. Here's my take for what it's worth.
Arians has no problem with letting the QB sling the ball around. Mostly to the WR's.
So players like Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Adam Humphries should be fine if not in for an uptick in usage.
With the exception of 2009 in Pitt when Heath Miller got 98 targets alone (109 TE targets that year) putting the target to TE's at about 21% it looks like Arians offenses generally target TE's around 10% -14% of the time. That would put Brate and Howard right about where they have been production wise. However, IF Arians see Howard as a producer his numbers could go up.
Running backs out of the back field. David Johnson had 1 year of stellar production in Arizona and that put the rush/pass attempts fairly close - the Bucs don't have a David Johnson. I love Peyton Barber as a football player and as a between the tackles runner. Hell he should be the starter next season imo. RoJo would have to have an amazing off season to become a usable target next season.
So overall imo if the Bucs don't get any new skill players then the offensive scheme will be 60% pass / 40% rush with the WR's getting the lions share of the work and the QB being very busy.
Fantasy impact for next season:
Jamis Winston QB1 (hell he could have 5000 yds and 40 tds buyer beware may have 25 ints as well)
Mike Evan WR1
Chris Godwin solid WR2 with upside
Adam Humphries world class Flex with upside to WR2 (he has to stop getting lit up though)
O.J. Howard TE2 with upside to TE1
Cameron Brate TE2
Peyton Barber RB2 or solid Flex
Ronald Jones TBD
Deeper benches may want to keep Bobo Wilson and Justin Watson on speed dial incase one of the big 3 from above get injured.
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