Week 1: Last Minute Advice

smitty fantasy football advice

First off, good luck to all of you this week and thanks for being a SleeperU member! You guys make this site!

Here is some last minute advice; good luck this morning!

Don’t outthink yourself today!

It’s easy to get cute and sit big name guys for guys you’re excited about. Don’t. If you drafted a player to be your WR1 or high-end WR2, or RB1 or high-end RB2, start the guy. Granted, some might call my Dak Prescott advice ‘getting cute’, and that’s fair, but we all have to draw our own lines on what feels ‘legit’ and what feels kinda risky. Trust your gut. Always trust your gut over anyone’s advice!!!

Out: Gronk, Ajayi, Jamaal?

Rob Gronkowski, Jay Ajayi, Jamaal Charles (doubtful at this point) are all expected to be out today, so be sure to get these guys out of your lineup. Spencer Ware should start Week 1, although C. West could see some work, and anything is possible if one player rips off big runs. That said, I’m starting Ware in two leagues and I feel very good about him getting at least 70 yards and a good shot at a score. Arian Foster is set to have a big workload as the team’s three-down back, however, he does face SEA, so 10-11 points sounds right if he can punch in a score or break off at least a couple runs. Martellus Bennett will take Gronk’s place in Week 1, so he isn’t a bad add. Or, see if Packers TE Jared Cook is still on waivers. He is a strong bet to breakout in 2016.

Start Dak Prescott?

Look, I don’t expect even half of the fantasy world to agree with me on this, but I am starting Dak Prescott over any QB that I don’t consider top 1-6 worthy on the year. Yes, you heard me. So, of course I don’t sit any of the following in favor of Dak:

  • Aaron Rodgers
  • Andrew Luck
  • Cam Newton
  • Blake Bortles
  • Russell Wilson
  • Drew Brees
  • Ben Roethlisberger

Past that group, which is kinda in my top 1-6 (despite seven names being listed, as Roethy is in the mix), I have Dak as my next best play this week. Crazy? Whatever. I’m not saying I’m always right (by any stretch), but QB breakouts are one of my favorite types of predictions, and I heard ‘crazy’ back when I talked Cam Newton up heading into the pros, and I heard this when I was pimping Russell Wilson heading into his breakout Week 1 (when he was undrafted in almost all leagues despite being No. 1 on our Bold Predictions list that year). I know what you’re gonna say, ‘But, Smitty, how can you trust a rookie?’ Folks, it’s simple. I see elite. I have nothing else for you. It’s gut check time, I guess. And, not to mention is situation is super-unique and setup for success.  I could be wrong. He could get hurt on the first play. This is fantasy! However, I am predicting that he is the next elite QB to rise. 

Grab Marshawn Lynch, Rob Kelley, Dak Prescott, Jared Cook, Charcandrick West, Eli Rogers all before Week 1 kicks off!

All of these players could be on waivers in some leagues, and some of these guys could have some pretty high upside after Week 1. Even if news breaks later, like on Lynch, or it takes Rob Kelley a bit longer than a week or two to breakout, or get a shot, all these guys are better to roster before they become valuable.

8 Comments

  1. Mike Sterling on September 11, 2016 at 10:13 am

    Kelly>Dixon??

    • Rick Sonn on September 11, 2016 at 10:36 am

      My feeling is Kelley might have the shorter, quicker path to starting. MJones already injured in preseason and was nothing special last year…poor upcoming and likes to put the ball on the ground. Dixon is out 4 wks I believe with an injury and has a little more climbing to do on the depth chart….but he appears to be a 3down back and PKing believes he will be the starter by mid Oct

      • Smitty on September 11, 2016 at 3:47 pm

        I like both. I think they both have awesome appeal. You can’t grab both, Mike? Who are the drops and drop options?

  2. Rick Sonn on September 11, 2016 at 10:30 am

    Redraft; no ppr…
    Sharpe is my 4th wr, would you drop him for E Rogers?

    TColeman is my RB 6/7 (yes, I stockpiled!). would you drop him to get Dak to back up Eli?

    • Smitty on September 11, 2016 at 3:45 pm

      Coleman has been heavily involved today in Week 1, and would do well if started by ATL. I’d drop someone else.

  3. Dario Paccone on September 11, 2016 at 11:27 am

    It says on green bays depth chart that Jared cook is the number 2 te

    • Rick Sonn on September 11, 2016 at 12:08 pm

      I know…has me a bit concerned since I’m starting him in two leagues, but I’m going on reports, preseason, and gut that he will do fine. He is a lot better than Dick Rodgers and what Aaron has been missing since J Finley days

      • Smitty on September 11, 2016 at 3:49 pm

        Cook only has one catch so far, but he still has some time. I still like him this year, but sure, it’s concerning he wasn’t more involved. He was on the field early and often, not sure about in the second half.

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