Stock Market Write Up Archive

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Sell LeSean McCoy before Week 4? MCCOY

(9/30/17) LeSean McCoy is 29, and he has played eight starting seasons on his resume. While there is a chance he has one more elite year left (specifically this remaining Weeks 4-16), I can’t help but feel the odds are more likely leaning in the direction of McCoy getting hurt or slowing down. Getting hurt and slowing down are two entirely different possibilities, too. Now, do not sell low, but if you can sell in lateral fashion into a player that is slightly safer, I say go for it. Or, better yet, do a 2-for-2 that makes sense and hides your worry about getting rid of McCoy. I traded Stefon Diggs for Mike Thomas (quietly an upgrade in my eyes, even though most value Diggs more right now) in a 2-for-2 because it allowed me to send McCoy for both DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry.

SELL. SELL. SELL.

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Buy-low on LeVeon Bell before Week 4? BELL

(9/28/17) You may not get him dirt cheap via trade right now, but there is no denying that current LeVeon Bell owners are in a bit of a panic mode. Take full advantage of this prior to Week 4 kickoff, because if he has that 120-yard, 1-2TD game in this one, buying anywhere near a discount will be out the window. Bell faces BAL in Week 4, which isn’t an easy match-up; that said, PIT has struggled badly so far this year, especially last week… the solution is to get back to the run and run a ton. This is what I predict for PIT in Week 4. Be certain to handcuff Bell to James Conner all year long, though, but together, you should have a top 1-3 overall player moving forward.

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Alvin Kamara to help fantasy owners down the stretch? KAMARA

(9/28/17) Keep on the lookout for this kid to be dropped in some fantasy leagues. He has had only 3 rushes in the last two weeks, and while he looks extremely exciting on every touch, some fantasy owners might be over waiting on the guy. Attack if he gets dropped, he has huge, huge upside. Even though he received just 1 carry in Week 2 and only 2 carries last week, he rushed for 37 yards on those 2 carries, and he has 4, 3 and 3 receptions in his first three weeks. He is used a lot in the passing game considering he is in the middle of a three-headed RBBC, and if he gets even close to starter touches, I have zero doubt that he will be a high-end RB2. Will he ever get near starter touches? I do not know. I cannot even begin to guess, as New Orleans is unpredictable with their rushers (they brought in Adrian Peterson and almost refused to see if he has elite talent left… I mean, they won’t even kick the tires, it’s amazing). Kamara is a great player to acquire in redraft if you can get him thrown into a trade, and he should he acquired in dynasty. I really like his skill set, he could be elite if used.

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Marshawn Lynch a buy-low before Week 4? LYNCH

(9/26/17) He’s only averaging 3.9 YPC, but he is running tough… it’s not that he isn’t as good, folks, and I think that will shine through here shortly… He only got 6 carries last week for 18 yards, that usage is a concern for me, but I think we could be very close to seeing Lynch get more carries after the team reevaluates their brutal loss in Week 3… I imagine they turn to the run and start getting 80-100 yards out of Lynch on a weekly basis, which will include a grip of TDs on the year. Is he a lock to see more carries? No. So far Oakland isn’t using him right. However, I am betting that they start. Buy-low before it’s too late.

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Derrick Henry a buy-low off a disappointing week? HENRY

(9/26/17) Derrick Henry owners everywhere were drooling at his Week 3 match-up, as most fantasy football circles had him pegged for starter carries in the contest. Instead, DeMarco Murray exploded for 115 rushing yards and a touchdown. While it’s time to readjust expectations for that TEN rushing crew, especially when it comes to Henry, the letdown that Henry owners felt might present a buying opportunity for redraft league owners (maybe even dynasty owners). DeMarco Murray isn’t going away just yet, and if he stays healthy, that may remain true all year long… however, Henry still remains a top 5RB stash in waiting, meaning if Murray gets hurt, Henry instantly has top 5-8RB value. Instantly. This presents an interesting buying opportunity for all those disappointed Henry-only owners out there. Going after Henry in a one-for-one offer will only set off alarms and get you instant rejections… instead, do some other creative lateral trading, or maybe sell high on a Stefon Diggs and land a WR you feel will be just as good on the year (and get Henry in the deal). The player names I toss out aren’t important, what is important is that you find a low-risk way to get Henry while his value temporarily flat lines after a disappointing week of high expectations.

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Ezekiel Elliott could still face a suspension this year?  ZEKE

(9/22/17) Ezekiel Elliott now has a hearing with the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals, which will take place on October 2nd. So, this means that Elliott is able to play the next two weeks. However, depending on the decision made by the Fifth Circuit Court, his 6-game suspension could kick in. 

If you can sell high, it’s not a bad option. I sold Elliott for LeVeon Bell in one league and I recommend all Zeke owners settle on the idea that this uncharted territory is cloudy at best for Weeks 5-16. 

Again, I cannot stress enough that this is uncharted territory, so I caution against both selling low and not proactively looking for a way out of owning any fantasy football Zeke Elliott shares.

Alfred Morris and Darren McFadden should be grabbed by all Zeke owners. 

SELL. SELL. SELL.

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Josh Gordon a good pickup before Week 3? GORD

(9/21/17) We have been writing on this since before Week 1, and especially after Week 1, but there is still a decent chance that the NFL reinstates Josh Gordon at some point this season. Now, there is a grip of guess-work floating around news wires, but much of it leans in the direction of his return being 50/50. The receiver was denied reinstatement in May, but has since gone to rehab, which has many speaking about this and predicting a potential change in direction by the NFL here in October… Gordon, who has played just five games since his monster 2013 breakout season, still has top 4-10WR talent, it all boils down to will he ever get reinstated, and then will he stay out of trouble? Honestly, the odds aren’t great that he delivers on both, but given the upside (top 5-10 fantasy WR upside), he’s worth a roster spot in the deeper leagues. If he never hits the field, something many expect to be clear sometime in October, so be it… cut him and move on. But, if he lands, it’s big-time upside at waiver wire level risk. In a dynasty league? Check waivers ASAP! We have a forum topic on this very thing right here, so join the discussion!

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Mike Thomas a buy-low? MT

(9/21/17) For current owners, Mike Thomas is ‘hold’ right now entering Week 3 of the 2017 fantasy football season. This also means he is a great buy-low for those of you that do not own him. He hasn’t had a big game yet,
I get that many are frustrated, but the guy has seen 18 targets (10 receptions) so far through two games this year. That’s very solid, and it will eventually, this week I expect, translate into fantasy scoring. I will go as far as to say that not only am I not worried, he is still a WR1 in my book. Get ready for a strong Weeks 3-16. If you own him, continue to hold him, as you won’t get good value via trade right now. If you don’t own him, try buying him at low-end WR2-type numbers.

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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LeVeon Bell a buy-low? BELL

(9/21/17) While you will not be able to buy-low on LeVeon Bell in every league where you don’t own him, I’ve seem too many situations where current Bell owners are panicking. Take advantage of these kinds of knee-jerk reactions. If the Bell owner in your league is shopping Bell, take a stab at him using two players, an example could be trying to send Mike Gillislee and Keenan Allen off to the Bell owner… or maybe 2-3 Michael Crabtree or Ty Montgomery
-type players… Again, not every Bell owner will go for this, but it’s worth a try, as I still have Bell as the clear 1.01 moving forward (if drafting today).

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Derrick Henry about to become a top 5-10RB? Buy DeMarco Murray? :: HENRY / DMUR

(9/20/17) Derrick Henry was a beast in Week 2, rushing for 92 yards and a TD on 14 carries. As said on our Bold Predictions prior to Week 1, there were no better ‘stash’ RBs in fantasy football than Derrick Henry and Tevin Coleman… well, it’s only Week 3, and Henry is already flirting with the kind of workload/numbers that warrants hardcore RB2 consideration. Could Henry hype slow down and DeMarco Murray bounce-back into RB1-type numbers? Sure, and that’s why buying on Henry is no longer an option… that ship has sailed. He’s arguably on the verge of being a RB1, folks… that was the game plan from the start for all of us stashing Henry only… Now, because there is a chance Murray does get back into the RB1 mix, all of us crafty Henry-only owners should be taking low-ball stabs at acquiring D-Murray on the cheap, to pair with our Henry… and when I say cheap, I mean knee-jerk reaction cheap. People that have Murray right now should not be selling low, they should be riding out the storm… there is no point to selling low… so if you own him, ride it out (unless you somehow sell at even like value, maybe in some complex 2-for-2 that dilutes the risk for the owner buying). But, Murray-only owners in your league will have knee-jerk reactions right now, or at least some will, so whether you own Derrick Henry (without owning Murray) or not, buying Murray is a low-risk/high-reward opportunity. I know, you’re asking why would you want to buy Murray if he is a horrible RB1 to own right now? That’s the point, he isn’t considered a RB1 anymore, so his value has tanked well, well below that value… It’s all about value, risk vs reward, and what you can buy a player for (or where you can draft that player)… in the case of Murray, his value is dropping fast and those that drafted him are panicking… Murray, despite the new risk involved, has some bounce-back upside, so if you own Henry already, it’s a good risk to take if you can get the price down low. If you don’t own either, getting Murray only still has some upside if the price is right… What is low? Maybe a strong WR3? Maybe a Crowder or an Ameer Abdullah? You may not get a yes from every owner in every league, but take a stab… There is risk in that still, so be careful, but again, it’s worth the risk given upside if Murray does rebound. As for Henry… again, hold him if you have Henry stock shares already, his value will likely increase, and he might be a top 5-10RB here shortly. I’m starting him in 3 leagues in Week 3 as a strong RB2.

HOLD. HOLD. HOLD.

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D’Onta Foreman a potential RB2 this year? :: DONTA

(9/15/17) D’Onta Foreman is a tough runner with good size and speed (6-0/235). The guy only rushed the football one time in Week 1, and Houston made it clear entering Week 2 that they would get him the football more. And, they did. While his stats aren’t amazing, 12 carries for 40 yards (3.3 YPC), it’s important to note that Foreman looked strong at times. Lamar Miller isn’t exactly going away, and that was proven by his 18 carries for 61 yards (3.4 YPC) and 3 receptions for 26 yards… that said, I still think Foreman is a must-own moving forward. Wait on him. He may never get all the carries, but I think he is worth sitting on because I think on 18 carries per game, the guy would have more success. He was looking like the Week 3 front-runner for waiver grabs when the game kicked off, as he was almost getting starter-type carries… but, as the game moved along, Lamar kept getting more and more touches. So, it’s possible he isn’t impossible to get on waivers come Tuesday morning. Check! Put in a claim, and let’s hope he starts eventually seeing 18-carry games. If we do see 18-carry games, I think we see a 100-yard rusher.

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Week 2 Waiver Wire Adds :: CARSON

(9/11/17) Below are the Week 2 Waiver Wire Adds.

BUY. BUY. BUY.

Tarik Cohen (RB/CHI) – I posted a Stock Market write-up on Friday on this guy, and sent out a Sunday morning email on the kid. He was my gut feeling of the start of the season, much like Dak Prescott was last year. Well, it didn’t take him even half a game to shine, and as crazy as this sounds, he may have unseated Jordan Howard already… if not full-time, at least half-time. That’s a huge blow to Howard owners, but hopefully many of you capitalized off of my Stash and Grab Article on Friday, which highlighted grabbing both Cohen and Carson. If either is still available in your league, especially Cohen, grab them! Cohen is such an exciting player, a weapon Chicago cannot keep off the field. He is only 5-6, 179 pounds, but he’s lightning quick, has wiggle like Darren Sproles, and power like no 5-6 rusher I’ve seen. In Week 1, his NFL debut, Cohen rushed five times for 66 yards and caught 8-of-12 targets for 47 yards and a touchdown. Howard is still the starter, but what does that even mean after Cohen’s electric performance on Sunday? Howard didn’t do himself any favors dropping the would-be touchdown pass at the goal line with seconds left in the contest.
Kerwynn Williams (RB/AZ) – (Update: 9/12-17) Chris Johnson was signed today and could, in time, get that starting job in AZ. It’s not a lock, he was released, but often in these situations, a vet like Johnson could climb the ranks fast for a team in need of stability at the position.
We should know more on how long David Johnson will be out of action with his wrist injury. As of now, there are mixed reports, some say 1 week or no time, some say half a season. We should know more tomorrow.
Cooper Kupp (WR/LAR) – Kupp pulled in four catches for 76 yards and a touchdown on six targets Sunday in the Rams’ Week 1 win over the Colts. He is arguably a high-end WR3 with upside for more moving forward.
Chris Carson (RB/SEA) – He could be the full-time starter in no time, or he could be in a big RBBC all year. I see the talent, he has RB2 ability in fantasy, he just needs the touches.
Kenny Golladay (WR/DET) – He had a 2TD game in the preseason… then he had two TDs in Week 1… he’s a big-time dynasty gem and an crafty WR4/5 (for now) this year in the deepest of leagues. In dynasty, he’s the second-best pickkup of the week after Cohen.. in redraft, he is right here on my list.
DeShaun Watson (QB/HOU) – He has top 10-15 fantasy QB appeal, even as a rookie, as he runs a ton.
Austin Hooper (TE/ATL) – A back-end TE1 even as a rookie. Grab him if you need a TE.
Nelson Agholor (WR/PHI) – He is so involved in this offense. He could be a WR3 this year in fantasy.
Chris Thompson (RB/WAS) – A solid/sneaky RB3/flex this year in PPR.
Jesse James (TE/PIT) – A good TD threat this year for leagues that are big on TDs only.
Mike Tolbert (RB/BUF) – Shady got hurt, will he stay healthy?
Allen Hurns (WR/JAC) – Allen Robinson tore his ACL, so Hurns could step up.
DeShone Kizer (QB/CLE) – Decent add if in need.
Charles Clay (TE/BUF) – A TD threat at least.

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Chris Carson a sleeper RB stash? :: CARSON

(9/10/17) Chris Carson could get some run at running back for the Seahawks today, and it’s time to grab and stash in case he has an impressive showing and becomes a top pickup grab. He is no lock to get the touches required to shine, but it’s better to grab and stash these types of potential sleepers versus fight with the larger group for them later on waivers. I like his skill set, and in Seattle, his struggle to get starter touches isn’t super tough. Rawls is always hurt, Lacy is not proven, and while I like Prosise, SEA doesn’t seem to want him getting starter touches. I like Carson/Prosise as a combo stash.

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Tarik Cohen could be a gem in 2017? :: COHEN

(9/8/17) Tarik Cohen is a beast pound for pound. He is only 5-6, 179 pounds, but he has quicks and cutting ability like a faster version of Darren Sproles. Jordan Howard is the starter, and I am not suggesting a takeover, but I will say that all Howard owners better grab this kid as the handcuff, and all non-Howard owners (in larger leagues at least) should strongly consider a grab and stash with this kid. It’s not uncommon for rookie runners (Howard) to struggle after an impressive rookie season, and I’m not tagging Howard as a for sure bust, but it happens… and Cohen is impressive, so the opportunity isn’t non-existant, that’s the point. He may never get consistent carries, and Jordan Howard could remain healthy all season long; however, this is one of those guys that feels Bold Prediction worthy, and since the Bold Predictions are all locked down for 2017, this is where you will find that kind of predicting. Cohen…. I have a great feeling he thrives IF he ever gets starter touches. He’s an exciting and talented rusher.

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Ezekiel Elliott to play full season now? :: ZEKE

(9/8/17) Breaking News: Ezekiel Elliott could play full season; temporary restraining order granted. This is huge. Ezekiel Elliott was granted his temporary restraining order by the court today, which means he can play past Week 1. The court ruled that Elliott did not receive a “fundamentally fair hearing” from the NFL. He could still be denied in November, according to a few sources reporting on this right now, but the runner is expected to be available for the rest of the year. I wish we knew for certain nothing could change in November, but for now, things look like he will be available all year long. It’s too late to buy-low, but this post is to tell you congrats on likely looking at 16 starts. We aren’t here to discuss the reason he got into this situation, nor are we here to judge players before they have had their full and fair day in court. Our job is to deliver the fantasy football news, and the news is good for Zeke owners, even if there is a small unknown down the road, an unknown that could be clarified as this gets reported on all weekend. Talk about this on our forums now.

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Kareem Hunt :: HUNT

(9/8/17) What a beast Kareem Hunt was in his rookie debut on Thursday night against the Patriots. Hunt rushed 17 times for 148 yards and a touchdown, adding five receptions for 98 yards and two additional touchdowns. Yeah. He was fantastic. Where do you go from here if you are a Hunt owner? First off, he’s the real deal. Does that mean he should be untouchable on your roster now? As I tell everyone, always entertain incoming offers, as selling high can sometimes turn a weak team into a contender… so, if your team isn’t where it needs to be to win your league (and you know it), and let’s say you do own Hunt, maybe you can get an Antonio Brown for him. Maybe not. It doesn’t hurt to try and swing for the fences after such an outing where your player drops over 200 yards and 3TDs. Now, let’s say you have a team built to win already, and Hunt just took the look of your team to an even higher level… well, in that case, strongly consider just hanging onto the rising star and just make sure you back him up (handcuff him to West, who would also thrive if starting in this KC offense). Entertain offers, but maybe take less chances with your trades if you’re already looking like the lead dog in your league. Congrats to all the Hunt owners out there… he’s the real deal, folks, I’ve been super high on his situation all year, calling he and Ware (pre-injury) one of the safest/sneakiest RB2 duos in fantasy… Once Ware went down, it was go time, and yet he still fell to the late, late third-round and even early fourth-round in many leagues that took place well after the Ware injury. Boy did he deliver, and Hunt owners are smiling ear to ear tonight.

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Tom Brady & Rob Gronkowski :: BRADY/GRONK

(9/8/17) Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski had awful fantasy outings in Week 1, but if you watched the game, things started off hot with a Brady to Gronk touchdown strike… it was unfortunately overturned, as the ruling was that the ball hit the ground when Gronk came down in the end zone. Look folks… it’s just one week, and even though Brady only had 267 yards and zero TDs, and even though Gronk pulled in just 2 receptions for 33 yards, now is the time to buy-low on these two studs. As I just mentioned, they looked good early on connecting on what appeared to be a long TD strike, but things just got out of hand from that point on. When I say out of hand, New England was still playing relatively well in the first half, rushing for multiple touchdowns, but the passing attack never got on track and then things fell apart in the fourth quarter. Danny Amendola got hurt (concussion) and left the game, and the team also lost Malcom Mitchell prior to the outing. With Edelman also going down in the preseason, the NE offense is just trying to mesh, as much adjustment is taking place… I fully expect Tom Brady to rebound into top 1-2 fantasy football QB numbers on the year. This will then translate into Gronk rebounding, so now is the time to strike, folks!

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Rex Burkhead :: BURK

(9/7/17) If you need a RB due to the Tampa Bay/Miami game being moved to Week 11, consider grabbing and starting either Rex Burkhead or James White. I can’t stress enough that both come with risks of not getting enough touches, but it all depends on your situation. Burkhead and White need to be grabbed and stashed at the very least, so if either are available on waivers (in larger leagues), consider making a move for either. Don’t bench a for sure starter for either, that is not what I’m suggesting here, but I love the sleeper upside of both guys, White more so in PPR, but Burkhead has HUGE appeal and equally INSANE risk. He could have 8 carries tonight, or 100 yards and a TD. It’s so tough to predict. I just wanted to make sure all you SleeperU owners out there grabbed both and at least stashed them while we wait and watch that NE running back attack unfold tonight.

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Ezekiel Elliott :: ZEKE

(9/6/17) Ezekiel Elliott’s 6-game suspension upheld; However, he will play Week 1? News as of 9/5/17 @9:01PM: Suspended RB Ezekiel Elliott will play Week 1 against the Giants; however, his 6-game ban was upheld by NFL arbitrator Harold Henderson. Since the appeal wasn’t settled before 4 PM ET on Tuesday, Elliott is eligible to hit the field Sunday night. However, a ruling on Elliott’s temporary restraining order is expected to be announced on Friday evening. If it is granted, Elliott could be available all season. This could go so many ways, folks, it’s not even close to over. Keep checking with us in case something changes, but all sources and reports, as of now, are suggesting Zeke plays Week 1. The rest is TBA. Stay tuned.

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Jamaal Charles :: JCHAR

(9/5/17) Jamaal Charles looked darn good in the Broncos’ third preseason game, where the runner rushed for 27 yards on four carries, and pulled in 2 passes for 15 yards. That stats aren’t huge number wise, but he looked the part. He was quick, he fit in well into the offense, and he didn’t look slower or banged up on his runs. I do wonder if he will last even half a season on starter carries, should he begin to receive a starter’s workload (and he even got banged up for a minute in this game, rushing to the trainer’s tent for a brief moment); however, he is worth adding in all larger formats, and he should be considered in the very late rounds if anyone is still yet to draft. He could even be the team’s 1B to CJ Anderson, who will be the 1A. That’s a grip of carries right out of the gate for a player most didn’t even feel the need to draft (yep, check waivers). Keep expectations low, folks, but I noticed some spring in that rusher’s step — It’s time to add him to rosters and then sit and watch/observe.

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Doug Baldwin :: BALD

(9/4/17) I’ve been seeing Doug Baldwin go in the very early third-round in a lot of recent drafts, even at 2.12 a couple times… While the guy was super consistent last year, posting a 94/1128/8TDs line, those numbers are tough to count on in 2017. His current ADP is near those numbers/expectation, and I’d much rather have a player like Tom Brady, Christian McCaffrey and maybe even both Dalvin Cook and Kareem Hunt… I’m not suggesting he will be a total bust this year, I am just not willing to buy at near second-round value, nor third-round value. What does this mean for those of you who already own him? Well, you can sell-high, as he has great trade value. I advise even dynasty owners to test the trade waters. Third-round value is darn good value for the guy, you can trade into a safer option in any format if you currently own the guy.

SELL. SELL. SELL.

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Derrick Henry / Tevin Coleman :: COLE & HENRY

(9/4/17) Not to beat a dead horse on this topic, but I want everyone made aware that the last Bold Prediction was added, which is #2 overall… it speaks to the “Tevin Coleman and Derrick Henry Stash” Strategy. Read the prediction here and know that in existing redraft leagues, now is the time to trade/buy both runners. And, because most current owners will shoot down any 1-for-1 trade offer you make be sure to read this #2 Bold Prediction in full so you know how to best attack each via trade. If you haven’t drafted yet, as the Bold Prediction states, use the prerank lists to your advantage when drafting these two sleeping giants.

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Ezekiel Elliott :: ZEKE

(9/1/17) *** UPDATE ALERT ***Ezekiel Elliott owners, and prospective owners, got a bit more good news late last night. While this is all still built of news, rumors and much speculation, the Fort Worth Star-Telegram’s Clarence Hill is reportedly suggesting that the NFL lead investigator (Kia Roberts) recommended no suspension for Ezekiel Elliott. Roberts is said by other sources to be the only NFL official who interviewed Elliott’s accuser, and her recommendation left out of the NFL’s report. The NFLPA is reportedly arguing this angle. She was able to testify in the hearing, so the odds of Elliott seeing a reduced suspension, or maybe even an overturned suspension, have just increased. It’s tough to validate all this info, so be very careful how you adjust your rankings, folks, but as said below, it’s all about having those ‘replacement’ point during the games Zeke does miss (if he misses time that is). So, let’s hypothetically say that Zeke gets a 3-game suspension… he is a steal in the second-round of any fantasy football draft because three games starting Darrin McFadden (or let’s say even a Duke Johnson) + the points Elliott gets for you when he returns to your line-up gives you 16 total uses/starts that likely will equal top 3-5 fantasy RB numbers. He is inching toward the top of the second-round for me after last night’s news; however, there is still risk, and I would not invest this value in every league, but I love that I own him already at late second-round value from a draft last week.

(8/31/17) *** UPDATE ALERT ***Ezekiel Elliott appeal with the NFL regarding his six-game suspension is scheduled to last through Thursday, per Adam Schefter on Twitter. Mike Florio, of Pro Football Talk, reportedly believes that there is a “very good chance” Elliott plays Week 1. This could go several ways. First, the hearing could determine he serves the full 6-game ban right away beginning in Week 1. Or, this could get dragged out, at which point the runner could miss time in the middle of the season, or even worse, during the fantasy playoffs. Another way this could go is that this gets dragged out into 2018, which would leave early 2017 Elliott investors in an insanely-good position. So, if you have yet to draft, or maybe you’re looking to trade.. what do you do with Ezekiel Elliott? Where do you rank him? Honestly, I think even if he serves a 4-6 game suspension in the end, if paired with a strong replacement player, like Darren McFadden, or even let’s say a Duke Johnson, you’re likely to get 16 plays that total top 3-5RB numbers. It’s that simple. Many get caught up on the fact they won’t see Elliott in their lineup until Week 8, and that is a bummer when you walk out of a draft… but stats are stats. The points are the points. Invest at 2nd-round value in upcoming drafts without much hesitation, especially if you buy into the ‘replacement’ approach and get yourself a solid fill-in… also, there is still a bit of upside that he sees a reduced suspension, or this entire thing gets pushed into 2018. Don’t count on the good news, but don’t rule it out.

(8/18/17) Ezekiel Elliott, who is facing a 6-game suspension, has officially appealed the suspension. His hearing is set for August 29th. Multiple sources, including PFT’s Mike Florio, suggest that because Harold Henderson has been tapped to hear the appeal, Elliott’s six-game suspension is less likely to be overturned, and that a small reduction is more likely than a big reduction. This is all guess work at this point, but the logic is sound. Zeke is a tough player to draft in 2017 redraft formats, as he could miss only 3-4 games, or he could miss the full 6 games… or, he could even see further issues pop up to hurt him, as he does have some lingering worries still circling news wires, some of which appear to be already in the rear view mirror for the NFL (but what if there are more situations and issues?). The bottom line here is this… dynasty leaguers should continue to treat Zeke as a top 5 overall player. Redraft leaguers, however, must assume he misses 5-6 games, and that puts him in the kind of territory where you draft him in leagues where making the playoffs is easy. Meaning, if everyone in your league makes the playoffs, like in an 8-man league, he has tons of hidden value in the fact that you could blow through the playoffs despite facing potentially a tougher playoff schedule. Even in 10-team leagues, sometimes eight owners make the playoffs. These are things to think about when you know losing Zeke for 5-6 games can’t eliminate your odds of making the playoffs. In leagues where 3-4 losses right off the bat could kill your playoff chances, I say only take a stab at Zeke when you hit the very back of the second-round, which means you may not always land him, as many will potentially reach higher. Let them. One other thing to consider when it comes to Zeke… his ‘prerank’ slot in many prerank lists, like ESPN and Yahoo, could fall near the 25-28 range. It may not, the prerank list sometimes is influenced by ADPs, and each prerank list on each league management site can vary, and they update at strange times and they update using strange ADP data date ranges… but, take advantage of generous prerank lists and try to let him slide until the prerank list has him nearing the top of that list. This technique is easier to execute with less experienced owners, as they let that prerank list guide who they take when… Discuss this on our forums!

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Devonta Freeman :: FREE

(7/28/17) Devonta Freeman has been one of the players I have talked up most this off-season, at least in that top 15 overall player range. The Tevin Coleman threat has been lingering over Freeman for a bit now, yet people don’t realize that Freeman is only 25 years old and Coleman 24. Freeman also has only three-played seasons on his resume, and he has missed just one game in three years of play. He is coming off back to back 1,000-yard/450+ receiving seasons, each of which he pulled in 14 and 13TDs and 73 and 54 receptions. That’s insane football, folks. Tevin Coleman is almost a must for all Freeman owners, let’s be honest… but, it’s not because Freeman could get replaced by Coleman, it is because that offense is built around that RB role, and either would produce top 5-10RB numbers, if not better, per start. And, both guarantees you top 5-10RB numbers, and owning just one rusher all by himself doesn’t give you that kind of security. So, Freeman/Coleman is technically more valuable than any RB in fantasy, if you ask me. The safety factor of owning both is quietly (meaning you don’t actually value it as such) as valuable as a 1.01 pick… And, Coleman practically has flex-worthy value each week even in his backup role. Ok, so I said all this below well over a month ago. Why am I following up on this? Well, Freeman and the Falcons are getting closer to working out a long-term deal/extension, and once that happens, buying low in dynasty will be tough. Right now, the naive fantasy owner out there (in dynasty) probably still has concerns about Coleman, but an announcement of a new deal will surely reset that owner’s thinking and they may start looking at Freeman, once again, as the long-term stud in ATL, which he is. In dynasty, reach out. Buy low. I have sold LeSean McCoy in dynasty for Freeman. Give up more, get creative, just attack now, though.

(6/5/17) Devonta Freeman is only 25 years old. People sometimes do not realize this, as they often predict he will be replaced soon by Coleman. Tevin Coleman, a rather important handcuff for all Freeman owners, is only one year younger. Granted, contracts, money, all that can/will come into play in regards to keeping/resigning Freeman in 2018 and beyond, but the truth is that Freeman has only started for two years at the NFL level; he has played only three NFL seasons. He has just as much of a shot at playing 3-5 more elite years as Coleman, and some would say the odds are greater that he, Freeman, has the better ‘looking-forward’ career in the NFL, given he is the one currently in the driver’s seat over in Atlanta. He is in his final year as a Falcon, though, but many sources/writers close to the situation feel that a contract extension will get done at some point, which would crush some of Coleman’s dynasty value. If Freeman walks away from Atlanta after his ‘walk-year’ here this season, he would likely land as a starter somewhere, thus Coleman would instantly have top 20 overall value himself. So, regardless of being in Atlanta or elsewhere, I love the value of Freeman right now, in both dynasty and redraft. He is a player I recommend buying low right now in dynasty. His dynasty ADP is right around 18-21 overall (similar to his redraft, which is only slightly higher), which puts him in the RB6-10 range in most people’s eyes. That’s low-risk if you ask me and it’s a great value/level to buy-in! He has top 5RB appeal. He really does. Make no mistake about it, though, there is tremendous security in handcuffing both Freeman and Coleman together in 2017 (and beyond). In fact, it is one of my recommended RB moves of 2017… getting them handcuffed as one, which feels close to a lock for high-end RB1 production all year. Plus, it actually gives you flex material as well, as a fantasy owner can easily start Coleman as a flex even when Freeman is balling. Facts: Freeman has rushed over 1,050 yards and 11TDs on back-to-back seasons, with receiving stats of 73/578/3TDs and 54/462/2TDs during both years. He is elite and he hasn’t faltered yet since emerging in 2015 as a top 1-6RB. Handcuff him to Coleman if at all possible, but trust in Freeman near his top 20 ish overall value, as the risk is pretty much baked into the value. Discuss this on our forums!

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Mike Thomas :: MT

(7/26/17) Michael Thomas has TONS of upside heading into 2017. First off, he is the new No. 1 in New Orleans, and with Drew Brees still at top 1-3 fantasy QB levels, that means locked-in elite targets no matter how you spin Thomas’ skill set. He is a beast physically, though, and has bulked up from 210 pounds to 220. The guy broke 20 tackles as a rookie, fourth most out of all receivers, and the increased size could mean even more in 2017. His ADP is climbing fast, though, almost too fast. I think he can easily earn his top 12-15 overall value, but it leaves investors with a touch more risk than you’d hope for for a second-year player. The question is, will the risk (12-15 ADP) be worth the reward (output) in 2017? I say yes, but don’t draft him any higher, and do your very best to ensure he is your second-drafted player, not first. Given his rookie totals were 92/1137/9TDs, I think 100/1300/12-14TDs is totally doable in 2017. If you own the guy in dynasty, hold him! If you don’t own him, try to buy well under that top 15 overall value, but good luck in your attempt. In redraft, stay near that 13-15 draft range if possible so that he is your second-drafted player, which means hold on his current ADP value in redraft, but hope/expect more production than that. Discuss this on our forums!

HOLD. HOLD. HOLD.

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Jordan Matthews:: JMATT

(7/14/17) According to recent reports, Eagles WR Jordan Matthews might have more going on in his knee than just tendinitis. However, many also think his contract desires are more the issue in regards to missed time as of late. The bottom line here is risk, and when you have Alshon Jeffery now set to be the WR1 in Philly, it makes Matthews a risk if you expect any more than he provided last year, which was about 70/800/3TDs. He could pulling 4-5 scores, sure, and maybe 800-900, but that feels like his ceiling yardage wise with Carson Wentz still likely in the 3700-3900 range yardage wise. I doubt you can sell-high in dynasty, but sell-high if you can. Avoid him in redraft unless he is a low-end WR3/4. He can play better than that, he is talented, but his situation just doesn’t turn heads. The targets won’t be overwhelming. Discuss this on our forums!

SELL. SELL. SELL.

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LeSean McCoy :: MCCOY

(7/26/17) LeSean McCoy seems to be seeing almost increased value in all formats. Mostly in redraft, but even in dynasty (a bit)… the guy seems to be a bit overvalued. I say that not because I think he will for sure decline this season… in fact, I think he can still have one more top 5RB season left, at least per start. I think he always comes with some injury concern, though, and given that he is now 29 and has played for eight seasons, I’m going to play this out cautiously in 2017 when it comes to holding any MCCOY shares. In dynasty, I’ve sold him for Jay Ajayi twice. Once I had to give a couple second-round picks, but I was happy to in order to trade into a rusher with less mileage. Sell-high in dynasty if you can, and if you get “no” responses right away, don’t give up… it takes creativity to sell a runner at his total high point, maybe you add second-round picks, maybe make it a multiple player trade.. get creative. Not everyone does one for one type deals for an aging running back… add distraction to the trade offer, it makes people take risks differently if you confuse the situation a bit. Discuss this on our forums!

SELL. SELL. SELL.

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Ezekiel Elliott :: ZEKE

(7/14/17) According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, there is a “growing sense” that Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott will face a “short suspension” due to his involvement in a 2016 domestic violence situation. Schefter has recently stated that he’d be cautious in drafting Elliott in fantasy football leagues because he still believes the runner could get hit with a 1-2 game suspension. So, should upcoming redraft leaguers stay clear of Elliott in that 1-3 overall range? In dynasty, should this impact his value at all? The answer in dynasty is no way. Even if he was handed a 2-4 game suspension (keep in mind most assume it could be 1-2), those 2-4 games will come and go in a snap and anyone who had a knee-jerk reaction in dynasty will later live to regret the panic. In redraft, though, I think it’s reasonable to move him out of the top 1-3 overall, only because a couple guys like Antonio Brown and Julio Jones and even Odell Beckham already command a look at the 1.03… so the new risk of Elliott missing 1-2 games, that essentially makes Brown, Julio and Beckham extremely arguable choices over Zeke, but they are all still near dead even if you mix in this risk, which is still loaded with much speculation and guess work reporting. I felt it was important to address the topic, though, and my conclusion is that Zeke still commands top 3-4 consideration, he just now has 2-3 other receivers evenly paired with him as equals value-wise, that’s all. If you own him in dynasty, hold! Don’t even consider selling due to a couple games. Discuss this on our forums!

HOLD. HOLD. HOLD.

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Todd Gurley :: GURL

(5/5/17) Todd Gurley is heading into May 2017 with an extremely reasonable ADP (17-20 overall), in both redraft and dynasty. His current redraft and dynasty value appears near identical, and since the rusher is only 22 years old as of today, so my advice here is the same across all formats. Buy. Yes, his offense is concerning, as is his team’s passing game. Also, he was abused last year, as he consistently faced eight-man fronts. Still, the guy is a top 1-5 overall fantasy talent, and great players have thrived in bad offenses before. I think given he now is a low-end round two pick, draft or trade value-wise, the risk is minimal compared to the insane upside (top 1-5RB value). I think that even in that current STL offense, there is still the potential for 1,200-1,300 rushing yards, 10+ touchdowns and 200 or so receiving yards. As long as he stays healthy, even a bad year could get you 1,100 and 7-8TDs, which would warrant his current value of a late second-round pick. The risk is built into the current value! If in an existing dynasty league, toss out trade offers for the undervalued runner if you don’t currently own him. And, in redraft, I don’t anticipate his ADP changing much prior to some late preseason action, when he could change minds with just one long touchdown run. That means that for now, the guy is a steal and will remain a steal for the foreseeable future. Strike! Discuss this on our forums!

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Rob Gronkowski :: GRONK

(5/5/17) Rob Gronkowski is extremely underrated in dynasty right now. It’s tough to say how much, if any, he will be undervalued in redraft come August, but current ‘redraft’ ADP has him near the 2.12-3.01 range, which is a steal! The question is, will that value hold, or will a healthy Gronk (practicing strong) climb back into the 2.01-2.04 range before most redraft drafts ever get started? That piece is tricky to predict, but I will say… if Gronk stays anywhere near 2.10-2.12 value, he will be one of this year’s top value grabs outside of the top 15-18 overall. Why? Because he has top 5-10 overall upside, that’s why. As for his dynasty value, it’s clearly going to be lower than his redraft value, which is flat-out awesome news. I’d venture to say it’s more in the for sure 3.01-3.05 range, and this is amazing value to trade for him at. The elite TE is only 27 (turning 28 in May).. that’s still quite young for a player that can score 10TDs or more during any given season. Heck, he can do that on 10-12 games during any given season. Does he have injury risk? Sure, but the risk is built into value anywhere near the 24th overall fantasy player. During Gronk’s seven NFL seasons, he has scored at least 10TDs in five of those seven seasons. That’s amazing. Many fantasy owners will treat 2016 like a down year, a year that the TE might not bounce-back from (at least to an extent). Three out of five of his last five games were for 100 yards, and he scored in three of his last four games. Gronk comes with injury risk, sure, but he also comes with ‘win a league’ upside anywhere near his current 25th-like overall value in fantasy. Steal. If you don’t currently own the TE in dynasty leagues, buy-low, as I firmly believe that the TE could be one of this coming year’s biggest stud-like over-performers. Discuss this on our forums!

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Adrian Peterson :: AP

UPDATE (5/5/17) Adrian Peterson is now a Saint. The write up below, posted back on March 2nd, addressed going after Peterson as a buy-low prior to him finding a new home. Well, now that he is a Saint, it’s time to address this topic again. Does my thinking change now that AP is in New Orleans? No. Actually, I love this spot. First off, AP is a solid wide receiver, and he gets almost no credit for this. Why? Because, Minnesota never used him in the passing game. This was not his fault. The guy might get used more in the passing game than anyone anticipates, and even with a dip in expected rushing yards, his total yards and TDs might be top 5-10 material at year’s end. Now, am I suggesting that anyone expect even high-end RB2-type numbers out of AP this upcoming season? No. And, his trade and draft value is far below anything close to high-end RB2-type value. Therefore, he is a perfect low-risk/high-reward candidate heading into 2017, as he has that top 10RB upside, but no one will have to even come close to paying for that kind of value. Buy-low in even dynasty, as he can help you win a championship if he does in fact have elite talent left in the tank. Every fantasy football roster needs veteran help to win now. AP has the perfect mix of ‘now’ and low value in dynasty, so he is a top ‘veteran’ target to place next to all your dynasty building blocks. In redraft, he could be one of those ‘wow, how did I give up on him prior to 2017’ stories that everyone is telling at season’s end.

(3/2/17) Adrian Peterson is on the decline value wise. Is he on the decline talent wise? Many would say he already declined, and in some ways I fear this could be true. However, in the right situation, I think the guy could deliver one more top 5-10RB season and play almost a full season, if not exactly a full season. And, yes, producing top 5-10 fantasy RB numbers. Now, let me start by suggesting how I think he gets hurt and does not deliver… if he says in MIN somehow, or signs with a team like MIN. In such a situation, where he is overworked and facing eight-man fronts, I think he doesn’t last and doesn’t have the motivation he would have elsewhere. So, where could he thrive? Green Bay would be the ideal place. If he lands in Green Bay, he has a shot at winning a ring. That’s going to be atop his wish list when it comes to a landing spot. From a fantasy perspective, though, a place like Green Bay does two things… a) it will allow him to do more with less; he will get less carries but have more production because of the defensive formations he will face. If he gets 12-15 carries a game in Green Bay, with maybe some more receptions than we are all use to, I think he produces way, way more fantasy football points, which will include TDs, than he would in a place like Minnesota (even getting 18-20 carries per game). In Green Bay, I say Adrian Peterson stays healthy in 2017 and is fresh all year… and I say he cranks out 1,400-1,500 total yards and well over double-digit touchdowns. So, do you sell-low? I say no way. In dynasty, do not. I say ride AP into the sunset, or until he gets a huge uptick in value with a landing spot like Green Bay. My guess is in redraft, if he lands in a place like Green Bay, his value won’t be cheap come August, I think right now is a time for dynasty leaguers to buy-low, though. I am in most leagues. Buying low is using things like 2nd- and 3rd-round picks. I am. I’m trying to scoop him up at that value in several leagues and so far it’s working. That kind of cost is minimal, but the upside, if for even one season, is huge. Only buy-low, though! Discuss this on our forums!

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Sammy Watkins :: SAMMY

(2/1/17) Sammy Watkins is on the rise for some strange reason. Sure, he has huge upside if healthy and if he has a passer, and I wouldn’t suggest that anyone sell him low. I like the guy. However, his value seems quite high in early 2017 mock drafts and in general forum discussions, and I think it’s time to just test the trade waters in your league if you own the guy. Can you get a safer low-end WR1 using Watkins? Can you buy-low on a runner that has RB1 upside? Can you get an Aaron Rodgers on the cheap as many dynasty owners start looking way too far into the future as they potentially reevaluate their disappointing 2016 fantasy campaign? I test the trade waters, as I’ve seen Watkins get ranked like a top 5-8 fantasy WR moving forward. Again, he could be that good, I am not suggesting that he doesn’t have the talent, but the injury risk is HUGE, and if you can get this kind of value in your league, I say trade into a safer player, which won’t be easy if you stay within the same position… set into a runner using Watkins and you are much more likely to sell high! Agree? Disagree? Discuss this on our forums!

SELL. SELL. SELL.

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Jordan Howard :: HOWARD

(1/12/17) Jordan Howard had an awesome rookie season in 2016… on essentially 13 starter-type outings, Howard produced 252 carries for 1,313 rushing yards (5.2) and 6TDs, to go along with 29 receptions for 298 yards and 1TD. That’s a darn good season for a guy that essentially didn’t play much until week 4. Is he a high-risk type of player heading into 2016? Yes and no. It depends on where he gets drafted in redraft, and where his trade value soon settles in dynasty. My guess is that he could settle into 14-18 overall value come March/April, and remain there through August just as long as the Bears do not draft a big-name rookie rusher. So, the question is, will Jordan Howard be a big risk in that mid second-round range? I say that value seems about right. I like him there, and still somewhat worry about him there (as my second-drafted player), yet I don’t have an itch to draft him higher. So, it seems right, a good mix of risk with still-good upside/appeal. I think the guy can easily be a top 5-10 fantasy RB in 2016, so draft away, and trade for, at this value. If it climbs higher than 2.02, then we need to have a new write-up and evaluation on him! Agree? Disagree? Discuss this on our forums!

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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Paul Perkins :: PERK

(1/2/17) Paul Perkins has a grip of talent, and while he is in kind of a cloudy situation, one that the 2017 NFL Draft Class could muddy up even further, he has shown flashes of solid play in totaling his 112 carries for 456 yards (15 receptions for 162 yards) in 2016. His last three games in 2016: 11/56 (5.1 YPC), 15/68 (4.5 YPC) and 21/102 (4.9 YPC). His 2016-2017 NFL Playoff usage could alter his value in either a good or bad direction, but given he just hit the 100-yard mark, my guess is that the Giants will feel pretty good giving him important touches here in January’s 2016-2017 Wild Card Playoff battle. The guy has good size at 5-10/208 pounds – All he needs are touches. Buy-low if you can in all formats, and low is at flex-like value (or even lower). If someone is going to try and charge and arm and a leg, move on. He is worth buying low, but there is some risk that he: a) doesn’t get the playing time that he needs in 2017, b) the Giants draft a rookie RB in the upcoming 2017 NFL Draft. The point here is that if given the touches, I think Perkins could turn into a solid RB2/3 in fantasy in 2017 (maybe better).

BUY. BUY. BUY.

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