Alvin Kamara (RB)
My clear 1.01 given he has no red flags at all. He doesn't get overused in the carry department (190-200 carries), yet his total yards should be 1500+, his TDs should be double-digit, and his receptions could reach 90-100. No-brainer 1.01.
Ezekiel Elliott (RB)
It's hard not to love Zeke this year if not suspended. We will soon find out if he will miss 1-2 games, zero games, etc. If out of the woods in terms of 2019 punishment, he would lock into my 1.02 with ease. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PeDuRGXll_4
Saquon Barkley (RB)
He's a top 4 lock, but expect less efficiency in this thinned out Giants offense. One could argue everything is going through Barkley in 2019, but that isn't always a good thing, as that means more 8-man fronts.
Christian McCaffrey (RB)
While it's easy to say that CMac should be concern-free in 2019, the truth is he was massively overworked last year, and the big weight gain could be a cause of concern. Yes, if bigger he can theoretically withstand bigger hits; however, weighing more means a heavier load hitting the ground and that can add up. Like Barkley, the concerns with CMac are in no way having me avoid, but the risk needs to be addressed. CMac is still a top 4 lock.
Deandre Hopkins (WR)
Deshaun Watson will only get better, and this offense should move the ball a lot better in 2019. Watson took a bit longer to get back to form than I expected. ACL injuries affect everyone differently, but one more year removed should have him smooth-running, and that will mean big things for Hopkins. I think 1400/14-15TDs is for sure in the cards for Hopkins in 2019.
Michael Thomas (WR)
He is one of the most productive wide receivers ever in terms of production vs age. Some will worry about Brees... he's fine. The Saints are fine. Thomas will eat in 2019 and he feels like one of the safest players to draft near the 6-8 range in 2019.
Melvin Gordon (RB)
If this guy was a lock to play 16 games, which he never is, he'd near guarantee you 15TDs. He's a force. His injury risk and aggressive play makes him likely to miss 1-3 games. He's a fantastic 5-8 overall pick, though.
David Johnson (RB)
In that new spread-out AZ attack in 2019, DJ should thrive and be ultra-efficient. A more spread-out offense will lead to open rushing/receiving lanes, and I think we see Murray mature fast. I love what AZ is doing and they have the right players in place to implement the new attack.
Davante Adams (WR)
Arguably 1.05 worthy. That makes him a steal in 2019 because Gordon and DJ almost go ahead of him by default.
Odell Beckham (WR)
You can often get Odell at the top of the 2nd-round. But, I think he has a top 8-10 overall season in him in 2019.
Leveon Bell (RB)
Is there risk that he can't deliver top 10-12 overall value? Sure, but there is also a chance he is a top 1-3 fantasy football running back. That makes the risk/reward balance about right at this spot.
Dalvin Cook (RB)
I know many have Cook a lot later, and be certain to try and draft him more in the 14-19 overall range (if you can). But, know that his upside value is even top 5-7 overall, so #12 is still value he can explode from. Yes, he has injury risk, that's obvious. But, I suggest you don't overlook his 5-7 overall appeal.
Juju Smith-schuster (WR)
A huge year awaits. Will he see doubles? Sure. But, this guy, like Antonio Brown of old, has two things going for him. Well, make it three... first, Big Ben will lock onto him like no other... second, Antonio Brown had no one else for a while and still thrived... JuJu already produced last year and his numbers were insane. Does anyone think he can't improve upon last year's numbers given he will now get a boatload more targets?
Mike Evans (WR)
That Bucs passing attack is going to sling it. Evans will get top 5WR targets, so if he stays healthy, which is the only concern here, the #s will be there for the beast-of-a-receiver.
Julio Jones (WR)
This may seem low, as most have Julio in the top 11 overall. However, this isn't so much a knock on him, although I always worry about his foot... instead, the reason he is down here at 15 really has more to do with me just liking all of the players up above more.
Nick Chubb (RB)
Kareem Hunt recently got in a bar fight, but it sounds like Hunt is in the clear and will not face any sort of punishment for that incident, which means he will still miss just half the season for his domestic violence incident last year. I know many thought that Chubb's value would have increased had Hunt been suspended for the year, or been cut, but I don't see it that way at all. In fact, I see this situation completely flipped. Chubb is gold when cuffed to Hunt, and if Hunt isn't in the picture, meaning he isn't the handcuff, Chubb is a lot riskier to me. How so? Watch this: https://www.instagram.com/tv/BzhB5ziFxJW/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link
Antonio Brown (WR)
All I hear is how much people hate his drama. Ignore that. The guy is a hard worker, a beast on the field, and he's going to make his own dinner if he has to there in Oakland in 2019. He will eat. At 17-22 overall value, any risk that he starts slow, or has some inconsistent play, well, all that risk is budgeted into his ADP.
Damien Williams (RB)
Don't take him any higher than you have to. While I rank him 18th, be sure to try your very best to get him in the 25-30 range, meaning top of the 3rd-round and as your third-drafted player. He is just so much safer at that range. Whatever you do, cuff him to Hyde and/or Darwin Thompson. If you cannot cuff him due to having small rosters, then pass.. his security is in his situation. If you cannot properly handcuff him, you have no business drafting DWilliams in 2019. I love his value, but he has risk (which can be mitigated with cuffing).
Patrick Mahomes (QB)
Argue that Mahomes isn't worth this value, I get it... awesome QBs like Luck and ARod will fall so much later. That is a great point, and it makes waiting on a QB one of many sound QB strategies in 2019. But, don't let anyone make you think that taking Mahomes in 2019 is also not a good approach... because it is. Now, try to land him at 3.01 or later, or wait for Arod in the 4th or Mayfield in the 6th. All three are my QBs of choice in 2019, and depending on who's left at the top of the 3rd-round, I strongly consider Mahomes. I don't care what the "don't take a QB early" people continue to regurgitate.
Travis Kelce (TE)
Worth a higher pick on paper, but this is about where I get comfortable taking a TE in 2019. Kelce warrants a higher pick, but I just find waiting here and taking Kittle at like 23-25 is just a more sound approach in 2019. But, that's me, and you wouldn't be crazy taking Kelce in the top 10-15.
George Kittle (TE)
Try to grab him in the early third, as he is gold there. I firmly believe Kittle could be as good as Kelce in 2019. He did all that damage in 2018 with an ever-changing pile of junk at QB. Imagine what he and Jimmy G can do in 2019.
David Montgomery (RB)
This is a potential top 10RB for the now and future... Don't hesitate to take him at the end of the 2nd-round in 2019... watch his ADP climb and climb as we near August.
Joe Mixon (RB)
Injuries to that Cincy roster (most recently Williams out for the year on the O-Line), two inexperienced coaches at OC and Head Coach, Andy Dalton throwing the football... this CIN offense will struggle more than people think in 2019. That has me passing on Mixon until a point where someone else will grab him.
James Conner (RB)
I let someone else grab Conner, so while you see me rank him here, I just find myself never messing around with the idea of owning him in 2019. I'd take him a bit into the 3rd, only because at that point, you aren't passing on rock-solid talent to grab him, something you'd have to do taking him in the top 20 let's say... so at 26, 27, 28, I start considering the guy for sure (only with the handcuffs). That said, I highly doubt Conner makes it to me that late, and I'm fine with that. Conner has red flags all over the place. Watch this: https://www.instagram.com/tv/BzgSu-5lMDv/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link
Aaron Jones (RB)
He has top 5-10RB appeal. While he is usually a huge, huge injury risk, he seems to be in the best shape of his life. His conditioning is through the roof. He has very little competition for carries and GB should get back to slinging the rock in 2019. Buy into AJones in 2019, I am! Watch this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ry3uVpjfpkQ
Derrick Henry (RB)
Top 10RB appeal. No doubt.
Devonta Freeman (RB)
Risk and upside seem to be near equal. He makes for a fine 4th-rounder.
Aaron Rodgers (QB)
I still think he drops top 1-3QB numbers in 2019. He is one of the best 4th-round picks in all of 2019.
Tyreek Hill (WR)
Likely to miss 0-4 games, but still not out of the woods yet for something much rougher, I really like Hill at 4th-ish type value.
Kerryon Johnson (RB)
Top 10-14RB appeal. The Lions will run a lot more in 2019, and throw a lot less.
Zach Ertz (TE)
He is falling for good reason, it's tough to know when Godert gets more work and when Ertz drops off a bit. ADP data suggests many are fading Ertz in 2019, at last as a 2nd-rounder and maybe even as a 3rd-rounder.
Adam Thielen (WR)
The Vikes will throw a ton less in 2019, so this is not unusual.
Marlon Mack (RB)
Top 10-14RB capable, IF he can stay healthy.
Ty Hilton (WR)
Sneaky good most years. Nothing has changed.
Calvin Ridley (WR)
This time next year, I think Ridley will look like that year's JuJu Smith-Schuster.
Keenan Allen (WR)
He is always kind of risky to me. But, he isn't being drafted too high in most cases.
Amari Cooper (WR)
Mixed bag of risk/reward. He should continue his strong emergence in Dallas.
Baker Mayfield (QB)
I think he's in for top 3-4QB season in 2019.
Andrew Luck (QB) Always capable.I still worry about health more than most, but Luck has huge appeal.
Phillip Lindsay (RB)
Amazing value, he has low-end RB upside in 2019.
Aj Green (WR)
Fantasy WR2 numbers is in the cards. Hopefully he rebounds from injury in a major way in 2019.
Josh Jacobs (RB)
His biggest college season was for 650 yards. He has a lot to prove before he gets a super-high ranking in redraft.
Leonard Fournette (RB)
He was my biggest bust candidate for all of 2018. He has only created bad drama thus far this off-season, so nothing has changed here. He's got more bust potential than bounce-back potential.
Robert Woods (WR)
Low-end WR1 potential.
Tarik Cohen (RB)
No one knows how good he will be in 2019 if Monty is going on rampages (all year long).