smitty - fantasy football writer smitty sleeperu

Hey, all. Here is a fresh ADP Rankings List (Average Draft Position) as of 4/17/2020. Remember, sometimes April data isn't 100 percent reliable, as mocks drive this data, and it's only as good as the mock drafts being run (people mock strangely, or they leave mocks after 2 rounds... the data is iffy in spots - know that!).

ADPPlayerPos.Tm.Smitty's Take
1.01Christian McCaffreyRBCARHard to argue either CMC or Barkley. In auctions, I love buying both.
1.02Saquon BarkleyRBNYGHard to argue either CMC or Barkley. In auctions, I love buying both.
1.03Ezekiel ElliottRBDALAlready having COVID19 might be a hidden advantage in 2020; if paired with Pollard, this could be the safest duo in 2020 in a way.
1.04Alvin KamaraRBNOI am really liking Kamara in the 1.4-1.5 range. I feel it's a no-brainer. He pulls in 80+ receptions and has double-digit TD potential. I love when people say Kamara isn't a workhorse. People can define workhorse however they want.. But, here at SleeperU, it's total workload not just carries. Kamara is the definition of a workhorse around these parts.
1.05Michael ThomasWRNOI love MT, and he is my WR1 without question. That said, Chris Godwin is closer to MT than 2nd-round RBs are to the runners you can grab right here. Unless I feel Drake or Ekeler can call to the second, I go RB at 1.5-1.6.
1.06Dalvin CookRBMINGiven he has top 2-3RB appeal, and given Mattison is attainable with ease in 2020 (if you reach a tad), Cook is actually super-solid at 1.6-1.7.
1.07Derrick HenryRBTENEven in PPR, he is worthy of the 1.7-1.10 range. I still like Josh Jacobs more.
1.08Davante AdamsWRGBI love Adams this year as a top 3-4WR. But, as mentioned above with MT, the difference between Adams and Godwin (down the ADP ranks much lower) is closer than the RBs here and the RBs deep in the 2nd. Give me the RB like Jacobs or Ekeler or Chubb right here.
1.09Nick ChubbRBCLEChubb has huge per start upside in 2020. He is a top 5-7RB per start. Stefanski came over from MIN after creating a bounce-back monster in Dalvin Cook, so you know the CLE rushing game is going to be off the hook in 2020. Hunt is my 'win a league' RB in 2020. Call it reckless gut-driven predicting or whatever you want, but I have a strong feeling Hunt starts multiple games in 2020 and wins fantasy owners leagues. Especially those 'standalone' Hunt owners in 2020. If you draft Chubb, you need Hunt. The problem you may have is landing him, as Hunt has a climbing ADP of 5.02-5.09.
1.10Joe MixonRBCINI just can't draft Mixon here. I can't even stomach taking him in the top 15 let alone top 10. He's talented, no question. However, he was non-existent for the first half of last season and I'm not sold on Joe Burrow developing at light speed. I love Burrow. I do. But, it could take him half a season, at least, to get into a groove. Rookie QBs have ups and downs. Couple that with the decision-making concerns I always attach to Mixon, there is just no risk built into this 10th overall value (even 15th).
1.11Tyreek HillWRKCI love Hill, and he can certainly earn this value; since this pick is so close to being a back-to-back pick, you are locked in this scenario to land either an Ekeler or Drake or Jacobs with the next pick, so Hill is fine here. I often times will go RB/RB with the 11 or 12 pick in 2020.. I just feel I can land elite WRs in rounds 3-5, but Hill/Ekeler or Hill/Jacobs is fire, too.
1.12Kenyan DrakeRBARII like to think I had something to do with Drake's ADP climb. I've been hyping up Drake as a top 5-10RB since January, and it seems like fantasy worlds are ready to let him into the top 12-14 overall club. This isn't too high. Is there risk? Sure. But, he has top 5RB upside, too. Don't draft him in all leagues in case he does bust, but get yourself at least one share of Drake in 2020.
2.01Miles SandersRBPHIWow. Sanders is just climbing way, way too high. I like his skill set, he reminds me of a slightly lesser version of Alvin Kamara. But, with the Eagles' staff having a deep history in running multiple running backs, you have to build in risk for a RBBC type situation. If you do, he has tons of upside at near third-drafted player value, or at least like 2.10 ish type value. But, as a top 10-13 overall player, you HAVE to have no unforeseen situations pop up.
2.02Josh JacobsRBLVAside from Austin Ekeler, there is no safer RB in the 10-15 overall range than Josh Jacobs. He can earn top 12 overall value even if he doesn't see an uptick in PPR work (something I fully expect in 2020). That Raiders' staff has explained why Jacobs was eased along slowly in 2019, and it all makes perfect sense considering Jacobs wasn't a full-time rusher in college. They eased him in perfectly. If he gets a HUGE PPR bump, and I fully expect it to be HUGE, he crushes his floor value, which is at 12ish overall value. How are people not seeing that his floor is higher than anyone near his ADP, and his ceiling is top 5-7 for all RBs?
2.03Julio JonesWRATLThis value is about right. A decline will come for Julio. I know that makes a lot of people angry when I say that, and I'm not saying it will for sure come this year. But his foot is always a concern, and he is 31 years old. Wide receivers usually drop off between 32-33, so Julio should have that one more elite year left. While you want to argue he is more special than the rest and could be that guy thriving into his 34-35 years, it's possible.. but his foot also makes him a risk for such optimism. In redraft, I'm OK with 15 overall value... I am. I'm just explaining why I'm not feeling like this is a steal. I sometimes jump a year early to be safe, vs hanging on too long and owning a player during his downfall season.
2.04DeAndre HopkinsWRARIWow. I don't get his ADP. This is arguably the most physically-gifted wide receiver in the NFL (yes, you can argue MT, I'm fine with that)… and he is going to a pass-happy offense that loves to spread the field. With Drake keeping defenses honest, with Murray also doing a lot of the same, Hopkins will, for the first time, be looking at less double
2.05Austin EkelerRBLACAs I stated with Josh Jacobs, I feel both Jacobs and Ekeler have the best floor values in fantasy when it comes to RBs in the top 15 overall. Both Ekeler and Jacobs can easily be top 12 overall players even if they don't see their expected upticks in stats that I fully expect. And, if they do, they explode from this kind of ADP.
2.06Aaron JonesRBGBI don't mind Aaron Jones in the 3rd-round as a third-drafted player… even at let's say 3.01 or 3.02. But, with his injury history, his dependency on TDs (he had an insane 2019 but only ran for just over 1000 yards), and with his coaching staff constantly doubting he can handle all the work in GB, he is a tough guy to trust as a second-drafted player.
2.07Pat MahomesQBKCI see his ADP here a lot, but I see him dropping further than this in so many drafts. It kind of depends on the population of people you're drafting with. He is a steal here, so you can imagine how much of a steal I consider him in the 3rd. He deserves first-round value, but do not draft him that high. You don't have to. You'd be crazy to (unless it's a 2QB league, then he warrants top 4 consideration). Use ADP to your advantage and continue to benefit from the misguided "never take a QB early" mentality.
2.08Travis KelceTEKCKelce here is solid for 2020, but he often times falls into the 3.01-3.05 range, so let him fall and play the odds game here. I feel like his real life ADP trends lower than this!
2.09Chris GodwinWRTBI love this value, as it packages in a lot of risk for decline in 2020. He can hit a home run from this value.
2.10Lamar JacksonQBBALEverything I just said about Mahomes above, insert it here. Lamar worries me long-term, as any runner rushing 170 times per season is bound to get hurt. But, for 2020, trust in the guy and consider anything near end of the 2nd-round a steal. He and Mahomes are so undervalued it's crazy.
2.11Clyde Edwards-HelaireRBKCI love this value. I know, he could start off slow. I know, many say Damien Williams will be active all year. I don't care. My eyes tell me this kid is the next Maurice Jones-Drew, which means talent will shine through on this one. Plus, the Chiefs made him the only RB drafted in the first round, they will move him into the workhorse role at some point. Believe that. This kid, in my view, easily has top 15-20 overall redraft value in 2020. In dynasty, I see this guy as a top 5 overall pick in 2021.
2.12Todd GurleyRBATLPass. Atlanta is not that good of a situation for a runner, especially one with knee issues. Freeman was not that washed up, and he struggled to produce there even with a surprisingly active passing down role. Gurley in the 4th, something I will never see, might have me biting, but no way I bet on this guy in even the 3rd let alone 2nd.
3.01George KittleTESFLike with Kelce, I think Kittle can fall to the top of the 3rd more often than not. Not that he deserves to, but I've done enough mocks to know this to be true (regardless of what this ADP data is showing us). Take the gamble and try for him at the top of the 3rd.
3.02Mike EvansWRTBWhile it's tough to know what to expect, and we may get less passing stats than we hope, I think it's safe to say that 3.02 value has all that built into the draft slot. I mean, Evans at 3.02 feels like the lowest floor I can find out of any WRs left at this point. He has middle fantasy WR1 upside, yet he's a third-drafted player right here. Steal.
3.03Kenny GolladayWRDETI almost need to modify what I said about Evans, as Golladay also has middle WR1 value in fantasy. He and Evans feel like the last WR1 capable WRs here in the 3rd. Both are steals.
3.04James ConnerRBPITThis feels way too high. Could Conner have a big bounce-back season in 2020? Sure, but more risk needs to be baked into this one. I can maybe get behind 4th-round value, but not 3rd (especially early 3rd).
3.05Adam ThielenWRMINWay too high given the options still left, like Arob, AJ Brown, Melvin Gordon.
3.06Leonard FournetteRBJAXI like to think I had something to do with this guy's fall in ADP. He was near a first-round pick in early January and February.
3.07Allen RobinsonWRCHIArob has a grip of upside in CHI, especially with Foles there as a QB option. Arob survived regardless of QB play in 2019, so it's great news to know he can only get better if Foles does play solid football.
3.08David JohnsonRBHOUPass. I'd take the chance a lot later than this, but no chance I put any of my seasons on the line at third-drafted player value.
3.09LeVeon BellRBNYJI'm starting to really like LeVeon Bell heading into 2020, but his ADP is starting to climb higher and higher. Soon, it will be brake pumping time. For now, though, he still has big upside from 3.9 value. Try to get him in the 4th, though.
3.10JuJu Smith-SchusterWRPITI'm ok with this value, but 4th-drafted player value is a tad less risky. I do firmly believe that even with the risk of disappointing again, the upside is here for a HUGE rebound.
3.11Chris CarsonRBSEAI don't trust Carson at all. I wouldn't even take him at 4.11.
3.12Melvin GordonRBDENMelvin is a PPR machine and he is the only running back in the league that has had 4-straight years of having 40+ receptions and 8+ TDs. That's momentum, folks. Denver is a great spot, and I don't see Lindsay as a big threat. Melvin will get the PPR work, so even if he split the rushes, he's guaranteed a boatload of work.
4.01Amari CooperWRDALI don't mind this value, but I do believe Ceedee Lamb will be the WR1 in DAL entering his second season.
4.02Odell Beckham JrWRCLEI like Odell in 2020, but only in the 4th. And, because he has injury risk and CLE has risk all together, only bite in 1-2 leagues.
4.03D.J. MooreWRCARI don't mind this value, but I like a grip of players more right here.
4.04Jonathan TaylorRBINDThis could prove to be good value come midseason. He could start off slow, though. Expect that and make sure to have backup plans in place for those slow-moving weeks.
4.05Cooper KuppWRLARKupp can earn this, but I like a handful of players more here, like AJ Brown, DK Metcalf, DJ Chark, etc.
4.06Mark AndrewsTEBALStrong value, but he will be playing with type-1 diabetes in 2020. That presents some risks. He is the only player in the NFL playing with type-1.
4.07Calvin RidleyWRATLBreakout season could be at our feet.
4.08Mark IngramRBBALI like him better in round 5; cuff him to JK Dobbins.
4.09A.J. BrownWRTENAJ Brown is well worth this draft slot. I see a top 5WR season coming, and even if I’m wrong, he should have no problem earning this value on a healthy season. This could be one of the safest picks from the 4th-round on.
4.10Robert WoodsWRLARDecent.
4.11David MontgomeryRBCHILots of upside from this draft slot, but let's be honest… there is about as much risk, too.
4.12Devin SingletaryRBBUFSolid value with a little of the risk built in.
5.01D.K. MetcalfWRSEADK anywhere in the 5th is a home run steal. He should earn this if he disappoints, but he can be a top 15 overall player. The potential is there at least.
5.02Zach ErtzTEPHIDecent value for sure.
5.03T.Y. HiltonWRINDI've seen him go rounds later, so I’m not sure what this ADP is based on. Wait on Hilton, this is too early. Later, he will have decent value, though.
5.04D.J. CharkWRJAXThis is a home run anywhere in the 5th. In fact, I'd consider Chark in the 4.06-4.12 range. Easily. I may have to amend my comment above again, where I said no WRs were left that had WR1 appeal. This guy does. Chark could be a WR1 in 2020.
5.05Keenan AllenWRLACThis is about right, neither a steal or too soon.
5.06Kareem HuntRBCLEHunt is one of about 3-4 must-own players for me in 2020. Hunt can earn 5.01-5.12 value even if he never gets a single start in 2020. He should be used a ton, and not in a way that hurts Chubb all that much. But, if Chubb goes down with injury, something my gut tells me to be so... Hunt wins leagues for fantasy owners in 2020.
5.07Terry McLaurinWRWASMcLaurin feels like the next Steve Smith, and Haskins is the only reason he ranks in this low in my view. He should easily earn this value in 2020 and be an outstanding WR2.
5.08Tyler LockettWRSEADecent.
5.09Raheem MostertRBSFI like this value, but his holdout and threat to see a RBBC in SF make this about right all at the same time.
5.10Cam AkersRBLARI'm not touching this price. The Rams proved with Hendy they don't use rookies or their RBs like they should. Could Akers see the lineup by midseason? Sure. But he is a raw talent anyway and I just avoid this situation entirely unless it's Hendy in double-digit rounds.
5.11Dak PrescottQBDALThis is a tad high for me given I like Kyler Murray and Deshaun Watson more anyway.
5.12Darren WallerTELVWaller is so underrated, and I'd venture to say he will fall into round 6 more often than not. Use that to your advantage.
6.01Kyler MurrayQBARITop 3-5QB season in the Cards, no pun intended.
6.02D'Andre SwiftRBDETThis is solid value. DET fails to produce RBs every season. But, Swift is talented enough to maybe change that.
6.03Courtland SuttonWRDENDecent.
6.04Russell WilsonQBSEAGood value for a guy that could be the QB3.
6.05Stefon DiggsWRBUFDecent.
6.06Damien WilliamsRBKCAbout right.
6.07Marquise BrownWRBALBreakout season awaits. Don't be shocked if Brown is a top 12WR for big parts of the season.
6.08A.J. GreenWRCINHe needs to prove it before I take him over guys like Davante Parker and Deshaun Watson, etc.
6.09Deshaun WatsonQBHOUTop 3-4QB in my view, so this is robbery.
6.10James WhiteRBNEDecent.
6.11DeVante ParkerWRMIAGreat value.
6.12Rob GronkowskiTETBI like Gronk, most appear to doubt him. Yet, his ADP is high.
7.01Julian EdelmanWRNEI'm not sure I like or hate this value.
7.02Ronald Jones IIRBTBDecent. Many believe he could have a big year. I'm ok paying this value, but try cuffing him to Vaughn.
7.03Derrius GuiceRBWASPass.
7.04Brandin CooksWRHOUDecent upside, but still risk you can't build in.
7.05Evan EngramTENYGI like Engam a lot in 2020. Hopefully he can stay healthy. If he does, he will ball.
7.06J.K. DobbinsRBBALTough to say if this will be worth the cost. I venture to say he will earn this value back. Ingram won't get unseated, but he is no spring chicken.
7.07Jarvis LandryWRCLEPass. He is still recovering from injury.
7.08Tevin ColemanRBSFPass.
7.09Hayden HurstTEBALA tad high for me.
7.10Drew BreesQBNOSolid value in redraft.
7.11Michael GallupWRDALDecent value.
7.12Jordan HowardRBMIA-
8.01Tyler HigbeeTELAR-
8.02Tyler BoydWRCIN-
8.03Ke'Shawn VaughnRBTBI like this value.
8.04Deebo SamuelWRSFTake advantage of his falling ADP. He could be back way sooner than most expect. I love him as a WR3 for any team, but drafted like this.
8.05Matt RyanQBATL-
8.06Marlon MackRBIND-
8.07Sony MichelRBNE-
8.08Tom BradyQBTBI love Brady in rounds 8-10. Rodgers and Brees, too. Steals! All three are.
8.09Diontae JohnsonWRPIT-
8.10Tarik CohenRBCHI-
8.11Matt BreidaRBMIA-
8.12Will FullerWRHOUCan he stay healthy and be a super strong WR3 in 2020?
9.01Hunter HenryTELAC-
9.02Aaron RodgersQBGBSteal. Let the haters hate.
9.03Alexander MattisonRBMINA must-own for all Cook owners, and at this value, no one has an excuse for missing out on cuffing Cook to Mattison. For all you non-Cook owners, grab him.
9.04Josh AllenQBBUF-
9.05Marvin JonesWRDET-
9.06CeeDee LambWRDALHe could be a strong WR3 by midseason. I think he is a top 5-10WR in fantasy by 2.5 years into his career.
9.07Latavius MurrayRBNOSuper stash and must-own for all Kamara owners.
9.08Phillip LindsayRBDEN-
9.09Darius SlaytonWRNYGSteal.
9.10Carson WentzQBPHI-
9.11Emmanuel SandersWRNO-
9.12Kerryon JohnsonRBDET-
10.01San Francisco DefenseDEFSF-
10.02Zack MossRBBUF-
10.03Jerry JeudyWRDENI hope he is a WR3 this year. He has top 10WR upside for the future, no doubt.
10.04Baltimore DefenseDEFBAL-
10.05Mecole HardmanWRKCSuper sleeper!!!
10.06Matthew StaffordQBDET-
10.07Chase EdmondsRBARI-
10.08Henry RuggsWRLV-
10.09Jared CookTENO-
10.10Antonio GibsonRBWASSleeper.
10.11Jamison CrowderWRNYJ-
10.12Buffalo DefenseDEFBUF-
11.01Tony PollardRBDALSuper stash and must-own for all Elliott owners. Elliott owners have no excuse for not cuffing him to Elliott.
11.02Cam NewtonQBCARSolid value.
11.03Noah FantTEDEN-
11.04Christian KirkWRARI-
11.05Pittsburgh DefenseDEFPIT-
11.06Darrell HendersonRBLARWhile I am avoiding the Rams backfield for the most part, this is zero risk territory. The door will be cracked open a bit for Hendy. I hope he gets a fair shot.
11.07Justin JacksonRBLAC-
11.08Daniel JonesQBNYGBreakout.
11.09Justin JeffersonWRMIN-
11.10Duke JohnsonRBHOU-
11.11Boston ScottRBPHISolid sleeper RB to grab super late.
11.12New England DefenseDEFNE-
12.01Chicago DefenseDEFCHI-
12.02Jalen ReagorWRPHI-
12.03Anthony MillerWRCHI-
12.04Ben RoethlisbergerQBPIT-
12.05Sterling ShepardWRNYG-
12.06DeSean JacksonWRPHI-
12.07Sammy WatkinsWRKC-
12.08Baker MayfieldQBCLE-
12.09Joe BurrowQBCIN-
12.10Nyheim HinesRBINDSleeper.
12.11N'Keal HarryWRNESleeper.
12.12Austin HooperTECLE-

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