smitty fantasy football advice

Ok, so the 2016 NFL Draft is approaching, and maybe you’re wanting to trade into a high rookie draft pick in your league. Or, maybe you just want to get some trades going prior to the draft when some players could see decreased values based on draft day selections. Whatever the reason, let’s toss out some players that are Sell-High Candidates heading into the upcoming 2016 fantasy football season.

Sell-High Candidates

Kirk Cousins

Kirk Cousins QB, WAS

First off, let me start by saying that I am not necessarily predicting Kirk Cousins to bust in 2016. In fact, he is kind of an exciting player to own in some ways, as he looked solid at times in 2016. That said, fantasy football is all about value, and while you might not be able to swing for the fences trade-wise, it’s not a bad idea to test trade waters with QB-needy teams in your league(s). Or, maybe make a trade for an undervalued Drew Brees or Tom Brady, as both of those veteran passers are getting very disrespected value-wise in dynasty. Make sure you try trading Cousins in some sort of multi-player deal, though, as that often times makes owners more willing to take risks, as more players are involved to help make up for disappointment by certain players in the deal. One reason I bring Cousins up as a sell-high is because in most all cases, anyone that owns him in dynasty had him on the bench prior to his rise, so there is a strong chance he is a back-up passer.

Adrian Peterson

Adrian Peterson RB, MIN

As much as I don’t want to be that guy going against the super human Adrian Peterson, I think it’s time to sell-high in dynasty. He could go nuts in 2016, so keep that in mind if you are wanting to win now and aren’t too concerned about the future. Do NOT trade him for even mediocre value, though, it’s either get an awesome amount of value in return, or ride AP into the sunset. What is enough value in dynasty, though? That’s tough to say, as his redraft ADP is in the 1.05-1.07 overall range; however, his dynasty ADP is kind of impossible to calculate (at least accurately), as every league is so different. Can you get 2nd-round value out of him? I venture to say yes, at least in some cases. Maybe not in leagues with very experienced owners. It all depends on your league. And, like above with Cousins, your best bet to max out the trade-in value is to make some multi-player offer, as it gives fantasy owners more room for error on any one player in the deal. Sometimes I hear a SleeperU reader write in the comments “No one will buy him in my league at that price”, yet that reader just offered one for one type deals, or they at least didn’t keep trying to make multi-player blockbuster-type offers. It takes work! If you can package a WR2/3 and Adrian Peterson for a player like Amari Cooper, or David Johnson, jump all over it. I say Cooper and Johnson because they haven’t quite maxed out on value yet, and while many see those two rising and ready to explode, some owners might still undervalue these two. Get draft picks involved if need be. Another idea, even though it’s a risky one, is to trade AP for a doubted player like DeMarco Murray. AP could explode for 1-1.5 more years, while Murray could never rebound at all, so know that there is risk in this idea. Bring your trade offers and ideas to the forums (or comment below!), as this particular player/trade is tricky.

Thomas Rawls

Thomas Rawls RB, SEA

I like Thomas Rawls a lot, and if you are a regular here at SleeperU, then you know he was one of the first players on the 2016 Bold Predictions (Upside Board). In fact, I added him in November of last year, so he has been sitting on there well, well before he gained the kind of value he currently has now. Folks, love him or really love him, he has climbed into 2.02-2.06 draft/trade value, and that is pretty solid. Solid enough to laterally trade into a safer player, like an Amari Cooper, Lamar Miller or even an undervalued AJ Green (even if you have to give up a bit more, let’s say some draft picks). All three are getting drafted after Rawls according to redraft ADPs, and since Rawls is just getting his career started, there is no reason to think you can’t get an AJ Green or Amari Cooper owner to consider a swap if they in fact need a rusher (especially if you can give up a touch more). Do NOT sell-low, though, as I like Rawls, I can’t stress that enough… but, good value is good value!

Jeremy Langford

Jeremy Langford RB, CHI

Like Thomas Rawls, I like Jeremy Langford a lot, but again this is about value, and Langford has climbed into 2.09-2.12 value, which is right near an AJ Green or even a Mike Evans (and maybe Amari Cooper in leagues that aren’t packed with veteran fantasy players). Do NOT sell-low, but test trade waters to see if you can get yourself into a safer RB option, or solid WR solution. The NFL Draft could destroy Langford’s value all together, or it could make it climb (if Chicago does not address the running back position with a bigger name player). So, keep that in mind as you make your offers.

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