NEWS: According to numerous reports, Christian McCaffrey is not expected to play Week 16; he is likely out Week 17 as well.
FANTASY TAKE: CMC was a total bust in 2020. So much so, there is a slight chance that a huge group of fantasy football drafters fade him at 1.01 in early 2021 drafts. It’s hard to imagine him falling much past 1.02-1.03, so don’t get too excited, but CMC is still the best fantasy rusher in football when on the field. One can debate that he never stays healthy again, and they can back that thinking up with a grip of over-usage stats. However, I think this is more along the lines of Alvin Kamara’s 2019 season (lingering injuries, nothing career altering), so while many fantasy communities panic, I will be advising that all my people invest.
Let’s talk 2021 and Dynasty: While I do think CMC will rebound in 2021, there is some worry about usage, as mentioned above. Players drop off fast when used to the tune of 1.01 fantasy value. You don’t get drafted at 1.01 in fantasy and not get over-used by your team. He has been used by the Panthers more than any other runner in the NFL. No team ran more through their running back than the Panthers during CMC’s 2018 and 2019 reign atop fantasy football. The good news is, I think this non-season for CMC helps ensure that he’s well rested for 2021, and I have him locked into 1.01 in dynasty as well as redraft. Does he have 3-4 years left on top? Probably not. Two? Most likely, and two years is a long time. Don’t focus on 4 years down the road or you will always be playing for second place. If drafting today, I draft McCaffrey at the 1.01 across the board (dynasty and redraft). What about you? Comment below!