In our last Bust Candidates write-up, we cautioned against owning the following players in 2016: Jamaal Charles, Eddie Lacy, Thomas Rawls, Latavius Murray, Ryan Mathews and Jonathan Stewart (read here). All six players remain on our caution board heading into August drafts. And, we have a few more names to add to that list. Keep in mind that just because we caution against owning any of these players, above or below, it all boils down to value, so selling horribly-low in existing leagues is not advised, nor is avoiding all of these names at any cost (as someone might sell one of these players way, way too low). Enjoy.
Alshon Jeffery | WR CHI
With a 2.08-2.09 ADP in redraft (average draft position), it’s tough investing in Alshon Jeffery entering 2016. His Dynasty ADP is hovering around that same area, so I say sell high in dynasty if you can. Trade into a much safer option, or for an undervalued runner that is ranked right around the same area (like Devonta Freeman or Lamar Miller). I am NOT saying to sell Jeffery off for garbage in existing leagues. I’m merely suggesting caution to anyone yet to acquire the guy; being cautious means don’t draft the player at their going ADP (2.08-2.09 in the case of Jeffery).
Michael Floyd | WR AZ
At 5.01-5.03, you’re talking about potentially landing an Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, Blake Bortles, Drew Brees, Jeremy Langford, DeMarco Murray or a Dion Lewis… I won’t necessarily predict bust when it comes to Floyd, as I have always loved his skill set; however, at a redraft ADP range with those players I just mentioned, I let others reach for Floyd in 2016. In dynasty, because he is an overvalued player in my view, that means he is a great sell high candidate (for any of those players listed above).
Randall Cobb | WR GB
I do feel that Randall Cobb (4.01 ADP in redraft) could have a bounce-back season in 2016, but those same names I just mentioned above (Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, Blake Bortles, Drew Brees, Jeremy Langford, DeMarco Murray or a Dion Lewis) are all available at 4.01, and the bottom line is that I like all those players, and a handful more, than Cobb. That doesn’t mean I don’t like Cobb, and it doesn’t mean I’d avoid him in the 5th-round (in redraft)… I just love those players that I just mentioned more. In dynasty, because he is an overvalued player in my view, that means he is a great sell high candidate (for any of those players listed above).
Brandon Marshall | WR NYJ
At a 2.07 ADP in redraft, I’m not running, but I’m definitely grabbing a Mike Evans, Devonta Freeman or an Amari Cooper first. That is in redraft or dynasty. Sell high in dynasty if Marshall is even sniffing 2nd-round value, or even third-round value. In dynasty he is all over the map ADP wise, so it’s tough to get a feel for where he is ranking consistently in dynasty. Some league mates will be savvy and know that Marshall has maybe one elite year left, so attack undervalued players (that you quietly like way more than their value) when trying to sell high on Marshall.
Doug Baldwin | WR SEA
His 4.11 ADP (redraft) is quite high, and the same names I mentioned up above are available around this 4.11 area in redraft: Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, Blake Bortles, Drew Brees, Jeremy Langford, DeMarco Murray and Dion Lewis. All make better picks than Baldwin if you ask me, especially with all the Tyler Lockett hype. Lockett could end up being the top WR in Seattle in 2016, so Baldwin is an avoid as a 4th-drafted player and a sell high in dynasty!