smitty fantasy football advice

Below you will find a fresh set of 2017 ADP Rankings (Average Draft Position), which was compiled using an average of some of the best ADP Data lists out there. For most every fantasy player inside the top 70 overall, I have provided fantasy football commentary/analysis. This ADP Data is redraft-based and based on a mix of PPR and non-PPR. Enjoy.

2017 ADP Rankings

Updated: 7/5/17

ADPAs of 8/18/18PosTeamComment
1.01Todd GurleyRBLARWhile there are 3-4 players worth the 1.01, it's hard to argue against Gurley in 2018.
1.02LeVeon BellRBPITHard to argue taking the stud anywhere in the top 1-4 overall. He has taken a beating, but I'd easily invest a 1.01 on him in at least one league if let's say I had the 1.01 in a few different drafts.
1.03Ezekiel ElliottRBDALAs said with LBell, if I had the 1.01 in let's say three drafts, I would grab Zeke with one of those 1.01 selections. I wouldn't put all my eggs in one basket, but in one league I would absolutely take the chance. That gives you a feel for the mix of risk and reward that comes along with him in 2018.
1.04David JohnsonRBARIIn PPR, he is arguably the 1.01. Many forget how awesome he is in PPR, and even non-PPR... his ADP has sat this low, or lower, all off-season long. Take full advantage!
1.05Antonio BrownWRPITEasily top 1-4 for all WRs in all formats, and 1-2 for me in redraft. He has 1.01 value in PPR, yet his ADP seems to be settling in around 1.06-1.07 this year, which is fantastic value.
1.06Alvin KamaraRBNOWith M-Ingram starting the season suspended, Kamara will kickoff the year with more touches than he can handle. this should spell top 1-5 fantasy start for the rusher, and if healthy, I think he finishes in that range, if healthy, on the year.
1.07DeAndre HopkinsWRHOUTop 1-3 capable at WR, he easily deserves a top 5-7 overall pick.
1.08Saquon BarkleyRBNYGHe could be the 1.01 in all drafts and formats this time next year. Top 5RB numbers as a rookie is possible.
1.09Leonard FournetteRBJAXI call for potential bust out of Fournette this year. The expectations are just too high for a player that has a proven injury history. He takes so much abuse with his rushing style, one that doesn't bring in a ton of PPR love either.
1.10Kareem HuntRBKCHe is probably the safest late first-round pick this year, as he has top 3-5RB appeal.
1.11Melvin GordonRBLACHe and Hunt are quite underrated ranking in in at the tail-end of the first-round in most mocks/early drafts. Both are quite secure, and while you woudn't likely land both with bookend picks this year, if you can trade your 2nd-round pick and move it up to a 1.09 type pick so that you can walk out of a 2018 draft with Hunt and Gordon as your RBs.
1.12Odell Beckham JrWRNYGSome might say you can't get a steal in the top 12, but Beckham has 1.01 overall upside and can be had at the bottom of the first-round. That's tremendous value, folks.
2.01Dalvin CookRBMINThis feels high, but he can certainly earn this value. He has PPR upside that only 1-2 backs can rival in 2018.
2.02Michael ThomasWRNOThomas should grab enough TDs this year to put him in top 2-5WR value.
2.03Julio JonesWRATLUnderrated given he has as much upside as any WR this year. He makes a fine WR to grab going WR/WR with first and second round picks this year.
2.04Devonta FreemanRBATLFreeman has top 5-10 overall appeal, yet he can be had at this value, which means he's low-risk and high-reward.
2.05Jordan HowardRBCHIIn PPR, this is still value Howard can earn. But, there are a few safer picks if you ask us.
2.06Davante AdamsWRGBHe can grab 10TDs this year, and that's a conservative estimate. If he plays 16 games and Rodgers stays healthy.
2.07AJ GreenWRCINTop 3-6WR capable, making him a steal here.
2.08Keenan AllenWRLACWhile we like Allen, I think it's too risky to make him a second-drafted player. We get most will disagree, but there are just safer options, like a Devonta Freeman or an AJ Green.
2.09Mike EvansWRTBTop 5-7WR capable, which makes him a steal near the tail-end of the 2nd. He does have about as much risk as upside, though, which explains his fall in ADP.
2.10Christian McCaffreyRBCARMcCaffrey, if he stays healthy, should have a top 5-10RB season in PPR. His ceiling is much higher than a low second-round pick.
2.11Joe MixonRBCINTop 10RB capable, but he makes for a safer third-drafted player.
2.12Derrick HenryRBTENHenry is safer later on, so try to let him slip further, this way he has less risk but still top 10RB upside.
3.01LeSean McCoyRBBUFWill he face any kind of punishment for what's being said in the news regarding the robbery/violence against his former ex-girlfriend.
3.02Rob GronkowskiTENENot risk-free value, but also not bad.
3.03Tyreek HillWRKCThis feels high, but like TY Hilton and Stefon Diggs, Hill is a speed specialist that can earn this value. Hill is one of those guys that feels like a reach when you grab him at this value, but at season's end, he finishes at a spot worth the price tag.
6.01Aaron RodgersQBGBWill Rodgers ever again be the kind of QB that can toss for 40TDs in a given season? It's time to start considering only Lamar Jackson, Pat Mahomes and Deshaun Watson 40TD capable.
3.05Jerick McKinnonRBSFHis value is dropping maybe into the 4th-round, so let him slide a bit in your draft. He is worth a 4th without much question.
3.06Doug BaldwinWRSEAA bit high for me, although he seems to prove doubters wrong every year.
3.07Stefon DiggsWRMINElite season is in the cards, but try to get him as a 4th-round pick.
3.08Adam ThielenWRMINA bit high given all the mouths to feed in MIN this season. We like Diggs more.
3.09Travis KelceTEKCWith Mahomes tossing him the ball, Kelce finally holds 10+ TD appeal. Given he has 80 reception, 1000-yard upside as well, this screams one of the bigger steals in 2018.
3.10TY HiltonWRINDEven more solid value if you let him slip into the 4th.
3.11Jay AjayiRBPHIA bit high. Huge upside, but likely more risk than upside here in the 3rd... let him fall about 10-12 picks more, then he has strong appeal vs. risk.
3.12Josh GordonWRCLEHe is likely to play this year, and early on, but there is always risk with him. So, don't draft him as your third-drafted player, and you shouldn't have to. He has strong upside much later on in a draft.
4.01Alex CollinsRBBALA bit high, but he's one tough runner.
4.02Kenyan DrakeRBMIAI like that his value is dropping, it lowers the risk, and provides more upside given the cost.
4.03Amari CooperWROAKDecent value for a guy we once had in our top 5-8 for WRs.
4.04Deshaun WatsonQBHOUThe guy has upside for 4000 yards, 35+TDs (with 500/4+ TD rushing upside) and he holds a 3.10 ADP. Does anyone else not see possibly "steal of all 2018" right here?
4.05Lamar MillerRBHOU
4.06Brandin CooksWRLAR
4.07Zach ErtzTEPHI
4.08JuJu Smith-SchusterWRPIT
4.09Royce FreemanRBDEN
4.10Alshon JefferyWRPHI
4.11Mark IngramRBNO
4.12Allen RobinsonWRCHI
5.01Jimmy GrahamTEGB
5.02Sony MichelRBNE
5.03Demaryius ThomasWRDEN
5.04Tom BradyQBNEWith a 5th-round ADP, there is a lot to like about drafting Tom Brady in 2018. He can easily be a top 12 overall scorer and top 1-5QB. He still has the skill, even if just for 1-2 more seasons, or even 1.5 seasons. I love this value in 2018.
5.05Rashaad PennyRBSEA
5.06Larry FitzgeraldWRARI
5.07Jordy NelsonWROAK
5.08Ronald JonesRBTB
5.09Drew BreesQBNO
5.10Russell WilsonQBSEA
5.11Marvin JonesWRDET
5.12Greg OlsenTECAR
6.01Evan EngramTENYG
6.02Carlos HydeRBCLE
6.03Carson WentzQBPHIWhat a steal. The guy is my #2 QB for the future, and still floating around the 2-4 range for redraft. He and Watson are the future. It's nice to see him undervalued heading into 2018 drafts!
6.04Golden TateWRDET
6.05Marshawn LynchRBOAK
6.06Jarvis LandryWRCLE
6.07Tevin ColemanRBATL
6.08Will FullerWRHOU
6.09Dion LewisRBTEN
6.10Michael CrabtreeWRBAL
6.11Cam NewtonQBCAR
6.12Chris HoganWRNE
7.01Marlon MackRBIND
7.02Kyle RudolphTEMIN
7.03Sammy WatkinsWRKC
7.04Jimmy GaroppoloQBSF
7.05Kirk CousinsQBMIN
7.06Chris ThompsonRBWAS
7.07Delanie WalkerTETEN
7.08Corey DavisWRTEN
7.09Rex BurkheadRBNE
7.10Aaron JonesRBGB
7.11Devin FunchessWRCAR
7.12Tarik CohenRBCHI
8.01Nick ChubbRBCLE
8.02Jordan ReedTEWAS
8.03Chris CarsonRBSEA
8.04Pierre GarconWRSF
8.05Julian EdelmanWRNE
8.06Kerryon JohnsonRBDET
8.07Jared GoffQBLAR
8.08Emmanuel SandersWRDEN
8.09Jamaal WilliamsRBGB
8.10Marquise GoodwinWRSF
8.11Robby AndersonWRNYJ
8.12Kelvin BenjaminWRBUF
9.01Allen HurnsWRDAL
9.02LeGarrette BlountRBDET
9.03Isaiah CrowellRBNYJ
9.04Robert WoodsWRLAR
9.05Jacksonville DefenseDEFJAX
9.06Randall CobbWRGB
9.07CJ AndersonRBCAR
9.08DeVante ParkerWRMIA
9.09Andrew LuckQBIND
9.10LA Rams DefenseDEFLAR
9.11Doug MartinRBOAK
9.12Trey BurtonTECHI
10.01Matt RyanQBATL
10.02Peyton BarberRBTB
10.03Derek CarrQBOAK
10.04Cooper KuppWRLAR
10.05Matthew StaffordQBDET
10.06Minnesota DefenseDEFMIN
10.07Tyler EifertTECIN
10.08Corey ClementRBPHI
10.09Martavis BryantWROAK
10.10Patrick MahomesQBKC
10.11Philip RiversQBLAC
10.12Jamison CrowderWRWAS
11.01Ben RoethlisbergerQBPIT
11.02Houston DefenseDEFHOU
11.03Denver DefenseDEFDEN
11.04LA Chargers DefenseDEFLAC
11.05Kenny GolladayWRDETThis kid has HUGE upside, and that's why he sits on our Top 10 Bold Predictions list for 2018. Give it a read. He's a steal this late.
11.06Donta ForemanRBHOU
11.07Nelson AgholorWRPHI
11.08Sterling ShepardWRNYG
11.09Devontae BookerRBDEN
11.10Calvin RidleyWRATL
11.11Ty MontgomeryRBGB
11.12Latavius MurrayRBMIN
12.01Jack DoyleTEIND
12.02Marcus MariotaQBTEN
12.03DJ MooreWRCAR
12.04Marqise LeeWRJAX
12.05Jameis WinstonQBTB
12.06Mike WilliamsWRLAC
12.07Duke JohnsonRBCLE
12.08New Orleans DefenseDEFNO
12.09Josh DoctsonWRWAS
12.10Rishard MatthewsWRTEN
12.11O.J. HowardTETB
12.12Cameron MeredithWRNO
13.01Philadelphia DefenseDEFPHI
13.02Greg ZuerleinPKLAR
13.03Baltimore DefenseDEFBAL
13.04George KittleTESF
13.05Dede WestbrookWRJAX
13.06Case KeenumQBDEN
13.07Dak PrescottQBDAL
13.08Alex SmithQBWAS
13.09Kenny StillsWRMIA
13.10Justin TuckerPKBAL
13.11Frank GoreRBMIA
14.01Jake ElliottPKPHI
14.02Stephen GostkowskiPKNE
14.03Spencer WareRBKC
14.04David NjokuTECLE
14.05Giovani BernardRBCIN
14.06Bilal PowellRBNYJ
14.07New England DefenseDEFNE
14.08Michael GallupWRDAL
14.09Eli ManningQBNYG
14.10Geronimo AllisonWRGB
14.11Brandon MarshallWRSEA
14.12Tyler LockettWRSEA
15.01Matt BreidaRBSF
15.02Chicago DefenseDEFCHI
15.03Jordan MatthewsWRNE
15.04Mitch TrubiskyQBCHI
15.05Paul RichardsonWRWAS
15.06Mike GesickiTEMIA


  1. Colts26luck on August 20, 2017 at 7:54 pm

    I used to use FFS as my go to draft board with the projections and the listing based upon my teams projected points, and won 2 of my 3 leagues last year. I used this site as well and your top 10 breakouts, etc. What’s the best tool to use for that on SleeperU regarding custom points? Is it the mock draft board? Is there anything that can combine the projections with your mock draft board, so I can figure out what’s my best option with available guys?


  2. Rich Varrato on August 23, 2017 at 10:55 pm

    When will this be updated???

    • Smitty on August 24, 2017 at 12:58 am

      I’ll update one in the next 24 hours.

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