Busts Candidates for 2016?

smitty fantasy football advice

Jamaal Charles | RB KC

ADP: 2.02

I was a big supporter of Jamaal Charles’ value entering the off-season, and I’m talking back in January. His ADP wasn’t near the 2nd-round in early redraft thinking, and just after his injury last season, he was being tossed around like dynasty trash in existing leagues. So, because value was good back last season (as he was hurt), he was a player I tried to acquire on the cheap. Naturally, as time passes and injured players get healthy, value increase… this is exactly the case with Jamaal, as his ADP has finally climbed almost too high to that 2.01-2.03 range (redraft). At 29, turning 30 this December, and with a history of serious knee injuries, my advice is to pass on Charles in redraft if you are looking at having to pay anything close top middle- to second-round value. That’s a Dez Bryant, Devonta Freeman, Allen Robinson… Don’t sell-low if you already own him in any format, but because it’s still July, anyone that already owns him is most likely in a dynasty or keeper format… so, don’t sell cheap, you probably won’t get enough to make selling him worth it. And, if you bought low back when his value was dirt cheap (dynasty), well, then the risk/reward is still solid in your case… but, drafting him high moving forward (redraft or dynasty), or trading for him high in any format, is not advised.

Eddie Lacy | RB GB

ADP: 2.05

I know what some of you might be thinking… “Smitty, you have this guy on the Bold Predictions list, how can you now have him as a potential bust?” Well, the answer is simple. Values change. Lacy is still looking like a solid reward vs. risk investment for those that invested low (months ago); however, in the last month or so, the guy has seen a crazy climb in value. His ADP currently sits at 2.05-2.06 (redraft), which is around players like Allen Robinson, Devonta Freeman (steal!), Amari Cooper and Mike Evans. While Lacy is certainly capable of playing at that level, things have to go perfect… those players I just mentioned, from A-Rob down to Evans, are just much safer options if you ask me. I honestly loved Lacy back in February, as his ADP was still lingering in the 4th-round (and that’s when he cracked the Bold Predictions). It’s just a different situation now and I don’t touch him in the 2nd-round — I let someone else take that risk!

Thomas Rawls | RB SEA

ADP: 3.04

Again, you might be asking why this guy is considered a potential bust candidate when he sits on the Bold Predictions list (and he does still sit on there!)… Again, as stated above, everything boils down to value, and at current ADP value (3.04), the risk is too high. It once was not, and I’m talking back last year when he cracked our Bold Predictions. Back then, he was barely a flex-type player in terms of value. Back then, the risk was so low, the acquisition, if you were lucky enough to strike during that timeframe, was pure home run/low-risk. Given the injury concerns and the three very talented back-ups (C.J. Prosise, Christine Michael, Alex Collins) that sit behind him, I say pass on drafting Rawls anywhere near his 3.03 ADP (redraft). Again, I loved him in the low-risk zone, but this is not low-risk. Sell-high if you own him in dynasty (or redraft, if for whatever reason you drafted early). If healthy and starting, make no mistake about it, I see HUGE numbers for Rawls; but, always buy/draft on the low before the upside gets absorbed up, and for new buyers, it’s absorbed up!

More Bust Candidates

Latavius Murray | RB OAK

(4.01 ADP) – Rookie DeAndre Washington (12th-round ADP in redraft) could be starting and be a hidden gem in hindsight. Grab the rookie only in 2016 and wait!

Ryan Mathews | RB PHI

(5.04 ADP) – Rookie Wendell Smallwood (13th-round ADP in redraft) is the player to grab and stash!

Jonathan Stewart | RB CAR

(5.05 ADP) – I don’t trust the guy to stay healthy, not at 5th-round ADP (redraft).

11 Comments

  1. Smitty on July 28, 2016 at 4:37 am

    Agree? Disagree? Have other names to toss out?

    • Steve Patel on July 28, 2016 at 9:13 am

      Gotta politely disagree with the Lacy call. He’s playing for a new contract and the Pack need him. I’m thinking near career numbers. Dead on about the others. Oakland have revamped there O-line by a fair amount so that could only help the Raiders backfield. Whomever steps up to the plate.

      • Smitty on July 28, 2016 at 3:36 pm

        You could be right on Lacy. We shall see. He definitely has a chance to be what he was for a couple years, but I think the risk is still high even if the reward is high.

  2. rabidbucfan on July 28, 2016 at 8:58 am

    Not a disagree. More like a wish lol – Ryan Mathews – the potential for him to succeed is still there. Just hoping it happens. Only draft if value permits though that’s for sure. Sproles may be a sneaky grab for them if something does happen to the glass man.

    • Smitty on July 28, 2016 at 3:37 pm

      Well, the good news rabidbucfan is that the duo (so handcuff) is pretty good value if you can just get Mathews maybe a touch lower than his ADP?

  3. joe sim on July 28, 2016 at 9:42 am

    You mentioned Dez twice in one sentence . I hate rb this year. David Johnson is scary in the first with Chris Johnson being involved, Ellington still involved? Peterson age and how much can you trust Elliott. Gurley doesn’t catch enough for me.

    • Smitty on July 28, 2016 at 3:40 pm

      Fixed the Dez thing. Thanks, Joe! RBs are risky these days, but I think we cycle back into elite RBs being able to carry some to championships. Not a total shift back to the Tomlinson and Faulk days, those times are gone, but I think DJ, Gurley, Freeman, AP, Elliott and Bell/DWill are gonna be strong and carry teams this year.

  4. Jeremy Riddell on July 28, 2016 at 10:35 am

    That’s a Dez Bryant, Devonta Freeman, Allen Robinson and maybe even a Dez Bryant.

    Who’s high on Dez? lol

    • Smitty on July 28, 2016 at 3:41 pm

      Ha, fixed. I’m actually a little worried about Dez to be honest. He is kinda the highest risk of that WR group right in his range. So, he too has risk, but I like Dez more than Charles at that ADP spot.

  5. Scott Thompson on August 3, 2016 at 4:44 pm

    First timer here that just signed up. Wanted to get in on this topic. I think Demaryius Thomas is a big time bust this year. I haven’t see a WR have a good year with Sanchez throwing the ball.

    • Smitty on August 5, 2016 at 1:32 am

      Yeah, he is a good player to approach with caution in startup dynasty leagues, even redraft, too. Great call, Scott. Glad to have ya here by the way. How are you enjoying the site? Also, Scott, I just posted an update to this topic. I added a few names. Read it here.

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