Outlook: Josh Allen, my #4 Bold Prediction from 2018, is my clear-cut 2nd-ranked QB heading into 2021 and beyond.
It's safe to say that not only has Allen climbed into the second-ranked spot by almost anyone's standards, he has officially climbed into the same level as Patrick Mahomes.
While I love Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, even Lamar Jackson, for now only two names consume the top fantasy football quarterback tier... Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. Herbert could climb into the top tier, even Murray could, but for now it's just Mahomes and Allen. My early guess is that fantasy worlds will agree, for the most part that is; but, how all these QBs finish in Weeks 16-17 (and in the actual NFL playoffs) could remold people's thinking and early rankings. So, of course I will readdress this topic consistently each and every month heading into Week 1 of the 2021 fantasy football season. The rankings in this image are from my 2021 Redraft Rankings.
The big question here is where do we draft Mahomes and where do we draft Allen in 2021? To me, Mahomes commands top 18-25 overall value. I know many will scream and yell about how no one should ever draft a quarterback early. I have a lot of content on this argument, content that screams back suggesting that everyone has different team-building strengths... what works for one person may not work for others, and building a team around Mahomes or Allen has major advantages. Of course, waiting on a QB and being able to land the next Mahomes or Allen has even more advantages. There are pros and cons to both approaches, so don't let anyone tell you one way is wrong, as no one single approach works for everyone's draft strengths. So, again, where do we take Mahomes and Allen? Mahomes is 18-24 valuable to me, and Allen is 25-35 worthy. Many will argue against this, as mentioned above, but Allen is a beast and 4500-5000/38-40TD capable. I'm sorry to say, but that actually warrants a much higher investment than 25-35 overall value. The only reason to slot him in the 25-35 range, and not higher, is because people are allowing it.