On The Rise
While the 2017 fantasy football season is winding down, it’s never too early to start preparing for both 2018 redraft and 2018 dynasty thinking. So, what 2018 quarterbacks could fail to meet expectations? Which group could take a huge step forward? Let’s dig into a few names for each side of this.
Carson Wentz emerged in 2017 as a rising star, and as of Week 14, he’s a top 1-2 fantasy QB through 13 weeks and shows no signs of slowing down. So, he’s already a star and a top 1-4QB lock heading into 2018. However, that doesn’t mean that he cannot improve beyond the fantasy production that he’s currently cranking out, which currently is 3,005 passing yards, 29TDs and 6INTs. His 38TD-pace is something I’d kind of set as the expectation for next year, but his pace of what looks like it will be 4,000 passing yards could be a good 400-700 yards more in 2018. The guy has instincts many passers don’t have, and the Eagles have surrounded him with everything he needs to continue to improve. I really think Wentz is looking like the most attractive long-term fantasy football QB heading into the next 10 years. I love Aaron Rodgers, and he certainly has enough years left to not let his age affect his dynasty ranking much, if any, but Wentz has youth on his side with the talent. He might be my No. 1 overall heading into 2018 dynasty start-ups. Rodgers might get the redraft nod heading into 2018, though, but it’s close enough to call these two QBs the top two QBs in fantasy.
Jared Goff has a chance to develop into a consistent top 7-10 fantasy football QB. That’s where he currently sits in most formats, around 7-8 overall for 2017 fantasy football QBs. With the Rams looking like a whole new team in 2017, the sky is the limit for that offense and Goff.
Kirk Cousins, at the start of Week 14 of the 2017 season, is ranking in right around the top 5-6 in most league’s scoring format. The thing is, he got off to a slow start in 2017, and his top wide receivers (Pryor and Crowder) didn’t show up to help him early on… Pryor never showed up to perform, and Crowder took until Week 8 to do anything of note. Jordan Reed has been banged up all year as well, and the running back situation has been a mess. To me, this suggests that Cousins has even more of a ceiling than this top 5-6 overall QB play. Draft him as a top 5-6 fantasy QB heading into 2018 fantasy football drafts, and consider him at that value via trade in existing and start-up dynasty leagues… however, know that he might be hiding another level of fantasy football play, thus making him a high-upside player for the future.
Derek Carr has been up and down this year, and may still have a lot left to prove from a fantasy football QB1 perspective. Draft him with caution, as he hasn’t been a top 10 fantasy QB in 2017… but know he has the ability to be a top 7-10 fantasy football QB if he develops like I think he can.
Jimmy Garoppolo will paint a picture of his future soon, as he is just getting going late in the 2017 fantasy football season. He has a real chance at being a top 10 fantasy football QB of the future, but the 49ers will have to surround him with more talent this coming off-season. Time will tell if they deliver.
Potentially On The Decline
Drew Brees has truly disappointed fantasy football worlds in 2017, as he is, as of Week 14, ranking well outside the top 10 fantasy football QBs. The thing is, he has played well and commanded that Saints offense well, as the Saints have been one of the best teams in football this season… but, the team has transformed into a rushing-driven monster, so Brees has shifted into a game manager, which crushes his fantasy football upside. Still, he can’t yet be considered a QB that has fallen off talent wise, so he will likely turn into a value grab QB in 2018 drafts (in all formats, too). He comes with risk that he again isn’t passing as much as he use to, but I think for another year or so, he will still have the talent to be elite, so he will kind of be a dormant-in-waiting top 5 fantasy QB.
Philip Rivers will be 37 heading into the 2018 fantasy football season, and he has been up and down this year. Lately, he has scored big, but he is ranking somewhere in the 9-11 overall QB range through Week 13. It’s safe to consider him a top 10-15QB in 2018 and I think it’s also safe to look at Rivers no more than one season out at a time.
Alex Smith has been up and down in 2017, but his recent ‘down’ play had many thinking he would be on a short leash heading into Weeks 13-17. However, in Week 13, Smith had a huge game, so his place as the team’s starter for the remainder of 2017 seems secure. However, Patrick Mahomes has monster upside heading into the future. Will he get a chance to start in 2018? Maybe, maybe not… time will tell. Mahomes could be a rising star, though. Know that!
Ben Roethlisberger has talked about retirement in the past, and he started off in awful fashion in early 2017. His future is very much in question.
Matt Ryan dropped off big-time in 2017. His place in the elite fantasy QBs no longer exists.