Round One Analysis
As of today, November 16th, 2017, I think it’s safe to say that all four of LeVeon Bell, David Johnson, Ezekiel Elliott and Todd Gurley make a strong case for the 1.01 heading into super-early 2018 fantasy football mock drafts. Despite kind of an up-and-down year, one could certainly argue that Antonio Brown still has 1.01 value. And, I agree. Keep in mind, we are still talking redraft and PPR. Johnson (injury) and Elliott (suspension) are harder to trust coming off disappointing 2017 campaigns, so Bell and Gurley, assuming both play strong through Week 16 this season, could feel the safest heading into early mock drafts come January, 2018. In the end, though, when push comes to shove in August 2018, I expect, if healthy, both Johnson and Bell will firmly settle into the 1.01 and 1.02 value. No matter what, there are five amazing options in picks 1-5 in 2018. That’s the real takeaway here.
So, past those five, Odell Beckham, Kareem Hunt, Leonard Fournette, AJ Green and Julio Jones seem to have 1.06 – 1.10 on lock, and aside from the order of those five within that 6-10 overall, it’s a pretty clear-cut top 10 overall heading into 2018 (so far).
From 10 on, that’s where things get interesting and likely very all over the map from one perspective to another. I myself love Melvin Gordon, despite his ups and downs here in 2018. Now, this can change, as it’s only Week 11 as of this write-up. Things can change in either direction, though. As of today, many doubt him, so my guess is his ADP, if we were to calculate it as of this very moment, would be near the 1.10-2.04 range. If he finishes strong in Weeks 11-16, he could easily climb a handful of spots higher. I think Aaron Rodgers needs to be waited on and not take in the top 12 overall (in most formats), but I think his value is in that 10-12 overall range. So, let him fall, but know that value-wise, you’re likely getting a top 10-12 overall value in Rodgers in 2018.
Round Two Analysis
Carson Wentz is one of those players that will climb value boards a ton this coming off-season. Same thing goes for Deshaun Watson… these are the QBs of the future, and frankly, they are already here, so they are kind of the ‘now’ as well – already. I wouldn’t be shocked if this ranking seems high to some for both of these passers, but I bet they settle into this kind of value by April or May of 2018.
Mike Evans has taken a big hit and value this year, as Winston and the Bucs have struggled. He had top 4-8 overall value in PPR dynasty startups back in August, so if he falls even halfway into the 2nd-round next year in drafts, that’s a low-risk/high-reward situation brewing.
Deandre Hopkins is easily a top 1-5WR talent wise, and he is finally back in the elite top 5 performance wise, this coming off a horrible 2016 campaign. Some doubted his return to the elite top 5, but the development of Deshaun Watson has Hopkins’ locked into secure status. A QB makes all the difference in the world, look at Hopkins’ fall from elite last year… look at Mike Evans’ fall this year with QB instability. It’s important, and not many elite WRs have a better passer than Watson!
Michael Thomas could really develop in his next season. He has been steady and awesome through Week 11, but of course more TDs would have been nice through 11 games of the NFL season. He may pull those missing TD grabs in in Weeks 12-17, who knows, but my guess is that all our huge expectations were a touch early in 2017, but that doesn’t mean he won’t reach the heights many of us predicted.
Alvin Kamara, as predicted on our 2017 Bold Predictions, is a rising star. The question is, does he have top 12-14 overall value? Is he slotted in too low in this mock?
Jordan Howard, Devonta Freeman and Lesean Mccoy are all the riskiest players in this round. By far. Injury, age, situation, the risk is real.
Christian Mccaffrey looks like a strong 2nd-round PPR rusher heading into 2018, but his finish will determine a lot.
Round Three Analysis
Round Three Analysis Is Coming…