(1/12/17) Jordan Howard had an awesome rookie season in 2016… on essentially 13 starter-type outings, Howard produced 252 carries for 1,313 rushing yards (5.2) and 6TDs, to go along with 29 receptions for 298 yards and 1TD. That’s a darn good season for a guy that essentially didn’t…
As we head into Week 9, it’s time to take a hard look at Buy-Lows, but from a dynasty angle. Of course, many of these buy-low opportuniteis will be equally beneficial in redraft, and I’ll mention that within each write-up when relevant, so this article will attack all formats. Let’s get to it!
Ok, no one is going to sell you Todd Gurley at RB2-type value in dynasty, although, in redraft, you can absolutely catch someone selling way too low, especially if that owner is worried that they may not even make their 2016 league playoffs. So, try to get Gurley at high-end RB2-type value! I was able to get him at this value in one league last week, it’s possible. Back to dynasty… so, the kind of value Gurley can be had at in dynasty seems to float around the DeMarco Murray, Lamar Miller and even Jay Ajayi range. Assuming he stays healthy all year, I have no questions about drafting Gurley in the top 1-6 overall range in any 2017 start-up dynasty draft. In my opinion, Gurley will never again see value outside of the top 10 overall, and that’s about where he is being valued in dynasty right now. Buy-low! This is low-risk and super, super-high reward.
DeAndre Hopkins is in the same situation as Todd Gurley up above… the guy is being valued near the bottom of all WR1s in both redraft and dynasty, and slightly lower in redraft in some cases. This is a monster steal. Even with a struggling passing game in Houston, elite WRs like Hopkins find a way to pull in passes, and often times, struggling teams are throwing more-than-expected passes in the third- and fourth-quarters each and every week. In dynasty, Hopkins is a monster low-risk steal and he remains in my top 1-4WRs in dynasty and he is still a top 4-7WR for me this year for Weeks 9-16.
Allen Robinson has been a buy-low candidate for eight-straight weeks now… when is it time to give up on the idea of him being an elite fantasy WR1? I say don’t give up at all, not in terms of dynasty. He is proven, the skill is there, and while there is a chance Jacksonville still has QB problems in 2017, I’ll bank on things improving from here on out and especially during 2017. It’s time to buy-low in dynasty. The dude is a fantasy WR1, folks. He is a beast. Don’t let a bad situation, that could easily turn round even this year, have you running away from this amazing buy-low opportunity.
I think many don’t realize how good of a season Jarvis Landry is having in both the yards and receptions departments. He had a bye in Week 8, but if you pace-out his 7-played games this year, he is on pace for 105 receptions and 1,307 yards. That’s an impressive season in those stat categories. Of course, he only has 1TD this year, and that’s where the doubt and disappointment kick in. But, this has everything to do with Tannehill and that Miami coaching staff/game planning. I firmly believe things will only improve, if not this year, then next year, so I think we will see a huge 2017 campaign by Landry, and we might even see him have more TDs moving forward. Mix that with his already-awesome yards/receptions production, and you have yourself a low-end fantasy WR1.
The guy was a monster breakout on almost everyone’s preseason rankings… injuries have many ‘moving on’, and that’s a great thing for people looking to build for next year and potentially down the stretch this year should he bounce-back big-time from injury.
I realize the guy is very much in the spotlight now, and at a glance, you’d think now wouldn’t be a time to buy-low. The thing is, though, the passer is still on waivers in some larger leagues, and for some crazy reason, there is still some “Will he be starting after Week 9” talk floating around. People either love or hate this guy, and the almost-even divide has him still very much undervalued. And, while he is getting better and better each week from a fantasy perspective, he is still kind of a borderline QB1 in larger leagues, meaning he won’t cost an arm and a leg to acquire via trade. The attractive part about buying him low, though, is that many are almost recklessly-assuming that he won’t get better. It’s not that people are forgetting that he is a rookie, they are almost ignoring the fact that he is a rookie. He will only improve each and every season, and in one year from today, he could be cranking out consistent top 5-8 fantasy quarterback numbers. Imagine if he improved. He was a Bold Prediction for a reason — he has a bright future!
(10/19/16) The Packers traded for Chiefs RB Knile Davis on Tuesday and then news later in the afternoon suggested that Eddie Lacy will likely miss multiple weeks with his ankle. Ty Montgomery, who has experience at RB from college, could get more carries in Week 7 than anyone expects, and so could Cobb, but I’ve always
(10/18/16) The buy-low candidates have been pretty on the money so far this year, as we begged SleeperU owners to buy-low on Amari Cooper below during his string of mediocre outings (and people have short memories, there were forum topics where people were feeling he was bust-bound). We begged fantasy owners to buy-low on Devonta Freeman weeks ago, and last week we screamed
Looking for Buy-Low Players heading into Week 6 of the 2016 fantasy football season? Our Fantasy Stock Market has you covered!
(10/10/16) Odell Beckham is one of the best buy-low candidates heading into Week 6. Just like we beat into the ground last week (and the week before, and the week before) that Amari Cooper was bound to bust loose, I have little doubt, if any, that Odell Beckham will be a top 1-4 fantasy WR moving forward. Now, you can’t buy him dirt cheap, but it appears some are considering him outside the top 12 overall moving forward, which screams opportunity. With only 1TD so far this year, coming this past week, it’s time to attack (in both redraft and dynasty). I will even suggest that ODB pulls in 10-12 touchdowns this year, and that’s with him only having 1TD through 5 weeks, which means I have him scoring over 1.0 TDs per game moving forward.
Two more players/stocks have cracked the 2016 Stock Market Board: Duke Johnson (DUKE) and Dion Lewis (DION). Find out what we have to say about the fantasy football stock value of both players heading into 2016 August fantasy football drafts!
We’re excited to announce the launching of a new feature here at SleeperU. It’s called Fantasy Football Stock Market.
This feature will essentially identify players that are On-The-Rise or On-The-Decline. The awesome part about this feature is that we will speak to both dynasty and redraft formats. Another awesome twist to the feature is that we won’t always be on the side of the riser, and we might not agree with a player’s trending decline. Instead, we will attack risers and fallers in a way that helps you take advantage of their ‘perceived’ value on the open fantasy football market. Get ready!
This feature launches July 1st, 2016.
Ok, so the 2016 NFL Draft is approaching, and maybe you’re wanting to trade into a high rookie draft pick in your league. Or, maybe you just want to get some trades going prior to the draft when some players could see decreased values based on draft day selections. Whatever the reason, let’s toss out some players that are Sell-High Candidates heading into the upcoming 2016 fantasy football season.
First off, let me start by saying that I am not necessarily predicting Kirk Cousins to bust in 2016. In fact, he is kind of an exciting player to own in some ways, as he looked solid at times in 2016. That said, fantasy football is all about value, and while you might not be able to swing for the fences trade-wise, it’s not a bad idea to test trade waters with QB-needy teams in your league(s). Or, maybe make a trade for an undervalued Drew Brees or Tom Brady, as both of those veteran passers are getting very disrespected value-wise in dynasty. Make sure you try trading Cousins in some sort of multi-player deal, though, as that often times makes owners more willing to take risks, as more players are involved to help make up for disappointment by certain players in the deal. One reason I bring Cousins up as a sell-high is because in most all cases, anyone that owns him in dynasty had him on the bench prior to his rise, so there is a strong chance he is a back-up passer.
As much as I don’t want to be that guy going against the super human Adrian Peterson, I think it’s time to sell-high in dynasty. He could go nuts in 2016, so keep that in mind if you are wanting to win now and aren’t too concerned about the future. Do NOT trade him for even mediocre value, though, it’s either get an awesome amount of value in return, or ride AP into the sunset. What is enough value in dynasty, though? That’s tough to say, as his redraft ADP is in the 1.05-1.07 overall range; however, his dynasty ADP is kind of impossible to calculate (at least accurately), as every league is so different. Can you get 2nd-round value out of him? I venture to say yes, at least in some cases. Maybe not in leagues with very experienced owners. It all depends on your league. And, like above with Cousins, your best bet to max out the trade-in value is to make some multi-player offer, as it gives fantasy owners more room for error on any one player in the deal. Sometimes I hear a SleeperU reader write in the comments “No one will buy him in my league at that price”, yet that reader just offered one for one type deals, or they at least didn’t keep trying to make multi-player blockbuster-type offers. It takes work! If you can package a WR2/3 and Adrian Peterson for a player like Amari Cooper, or David Johnson, jump all over it. I say Cooper and Johnson because they haven’t quite maxed out on value yet, and while many see those two rising and ready to explode, some owners might still undervalue these two. Get draft picks involved if need be. Another idea, even though it’s a risky one, is to trade AP for a doubted player like DeMarco Murray. AP could explode for 1-1.5 more years, while Murray could never rebound at all, so know that there is risk in this idea. Bring your trade offers and ideas to the forums (or comment below!), as this particular player/trade is tricky.
I like Thomas Rawls a lot, and if you are a regular here at SleeperU, then you know he was one of the first players on the 2016 Bold Predictions (Upside Board). In fact, I added him in November of last year, so he has been sitting on there well, well before he gained the kind of value he currently has now. Folks, love him or really love him, he has climbed into 2.02-2.06 draft/trade value, and that is pretty solid. Solid enough to laterally trade into a safer player, like an Amari Cooper, Lamar Miller or even an undervalued AJ Green (even if you have to give up a bit more, let’s say some draft picks). All three are getting drafted after Rawls according to redraft ADPs, and since Rawls is just getting his career started, there is no reason to think you can’t get an AJ Green or Amari Cooper owner to consider a swap if they in fact need a rusher (especially if you can give up a touch more). Do NOT sell-low, though, as I like Rawls, I can’t stress that enough… but, good value is good value!
Like Thomas Rawls, I like Jeremy Langford a lot, but again this is about value, and Langford has climbed into 2.09-2.12 value, which is right near an AJ Green or even a Mike Evans (and maybe Amari Cooper in leagues that aren’t packed with veteran fantasy players). Do NOT sell-low, but test trade waters to see if you can get yourself into a safer RB option, or solid WR solution. The NFL Draft could destroy Langford’s value all together, or it could make it climb (if Chicago does not address the running back position with a bigger name player). So, keep that in mind as you make your offers.
Keith Marshall ran for just 350 yards and 3TDs in 2015, and his reception totals were not impressive in four seasons (4, 1, 8 and 11). In addition, he has never rushed over 800 yards in college, and his best TD season was 9 total scores during his freshman year back in 2012. He was first behind Todd Gurley, and then Nick Chubb, two elite college rushers. Marshall is the quickest running back in this draft class (4.31 forty time) and he has good size at 5-foot-11, 219 pounds. He repped 225 pounds a huge 25 times. Even when Chubb when down last year, the team just didn’t feature Marshall, and I’m not sure why. I’m also unsure if an NFL team will ever give him starter-type carries, especially soon. He may never get a chance, which won’t surprise me, as so many coaches/teams don’t put faith in certain players (think Lamar Miller in Miami for so many years). However, he is worth the investment in dynasty, as he can be had after many rookie runners have already been drafted. And, in redraft, or fresh limited-type keeper drafts, he may go undrafted in many cases, or go very late, but that of course would change if he showed signs of life early in the preseason. I love this speedster. I see tons of upside, I’m just not too sure if NFL coaches will have the guts to feed him tons of carries given his college resume is so small. Here is to hoping, as he is a special talent. I’m talking monster talent-wise.
He’s guaranteed nothing heading into 2016, at least for now, and that’s what makes him low-risk. Most everyone had high hopes for him at some point last season, but because he never was unleashed, it’s time to buy as many people feel he let them down. He still may, and ultimately it will be coaching that lets everyone down. But, if given proper carries/touches, Johnson could do well in fantasy.
Everything I just said about Duke Johnson can be applied here.
This is definitely a deep, deep wide receiver call right here, as Jamison Crowder is currently entering 2016, his second NFL season, as the team’s third wide receiver. He is thought by some to be the fourth receiving option after you consider TE Jordan Reed. While Crowder hit the rookie wall near week 11, he flashed some nice play in spots last year, especially Week 17 against Dallas where he pulled in 5 balls for 109 yards and 1TD. He actually had a nice little run from Week 3 through Week 10, where he averaged 5 receptions per game. Eight games is a big sample size, and while it’s tough to draw 16-game conclusions extrapolating out data from even eight games, 40 receptions in 8 games is on pace for 80 receptions… that’s quite impressive for a rookie, even if an eight-game pace. For those thinking the targets just won’t be there in 2016, keep in mind that he and Kirk Cousins have a strong-looking rapport, and both Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson are both turning 30 and have injury concerns, or at least injury potential given injury history mixed with age. And, for those in dynasty leagues, Garcon is a free agent in 2017. I love the value here, folks, I feel this could be this year’s Victor Cruz, a breakout we called during Cruz’s sleeper/breakout season. Many of you have asked me since that year to call-out and find the next Victor Cruz…. well, I’m not 100 percent sure yet this is the guy, but he very well could be.
For those already glued to this site, you will have noticed that RG3 cracked the Bold Predictions List well before his recent signing in Cleveland. He just got a huge bump in value landing with the Browns, but still, he is doubted quite a bit in many fantasy circles. His current owner in your league might believe in him, so you won’t be able to steal him away cheaply in every league, or even a handful of them; however, as of now, more doubt him than believe in him, so the odds are good he can still be bought low. Can he be bought as low as when he first hit our Bold Predictions List? No, not likely, but still try. He should only be acquired as a secret stash type player, though, as he could still falter. But, the talent is there and the upside is potentially huge. He will either never return to form, or he will be the best QB comeback story we’ve seen in quite some time!
Dwayne Allen could be a TD machine if he could every stay healthy. “IF” being the keyword. Coby Fleener always kind of held Allen back, at least in terms of how Indy would mingle each into the offense. With Fleener now in New Orleans — and he is breakout in NO, by the way — look for Allen to have more of a role in that Indy offense. Health is my only concern. He could be a sneaky-good TE5-10 in fantasy in 2016.