Archive for todd gurley

Stock Market: Gurley, Gronk, Peterson

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Rob Gronkowski, Todd Gurley & Adrian Peterson

(5/5/17) Are these three players must-have players heading into 2017? All three are extremely undervalued heading into the upcoming 2017 fantasy football season… Read More

BUY. BUY. BUY.

Week 10 Buy-Low/Sell-High

smitty fantasy football advice

Below we have our Week 10 Buy-Low/Sell-High candidates heading into Week 10 of the 2016 fantasy football season. Take a listen to Smitty and Russ talk specifically about: Ben Roethlisberger, Devonta Freeman, Todd Gurley, Spencer Ware Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Dez Bryant, Brandin Cooks

Week 10 Buy Lows/Sell Highs

Gurley, Freeman, Peterson and who?

smitty fantasy football advice

Ok, folks, SleeperU content is about to get crazy. Ready for the 2016 fantasy football season already? Our 2016 content is about to drop already, and you can soon purchase your 2016 Subscription at a discount and get to crackin’ on next year! While we wait for all that to drop, here is yet more FREE content for 2015.

Who is the 4th-best fantasy running back moving forward for Weeks 10-16?

With Matt Forte and LeSean McCoy banged up (and of course runners like Jamaal Charles and LeVeon Bell out for the season), who is the 4th-best fantasy rusher in football right now and moving forward (for 2015)?

First, let’s make it clear who the top three rushers are…

Top 3 Fantasy Runners

1. Todd Gurley
2. Devonta Freeman
3. Adrian Peterson

The order of these three is debatable, and some might STILL doubt Devonta Freeman as an elite back (I am not one of those people), but this three is pretty much the consensus top three rushers in fantasy football right now (for Weeks 10-16). I think once/if Matt Forte returns, he commands consideration for the 4th spot, as does LeSean McCoy if he proves healthy this week and proves that Karlos Williams isn’t locked into more than 25-30% of the carries over in Buffalo. Past those two, I say DeAngelo Williams needs to be mentioned, as he has posted these three lines in his only three starts this season:

Week 1: 127 rushing yards, 1 reception for 5 yards
Week 2: 77 rushing yards, 3TDs, 4 receptions for 15 yards
Week 9: 170 rushing yards, 2TDs, 2 receptions for 55 yards

… those are some serious lines, and while D-Will is an older back prone to injury, keep in mind he is fresh and will essentially be playing only a touch over half a season. He could absolutely hold up and stay relatively healthy. These are the most valuable runners heading into Weeks 10-16, Gurely, Freeman, Peterson, Williams, and then Matt Forte and LeSean McCoy when proven healthy.

2016 Fantasy Football Dynasty Mock Draft

smitty fantasy football advice

It’s Week 7 and it’s time to do another dynasty mock draft for next year. Below is a 2016 Dynasty Fantasy Football Mock Draft.

This is based on a PPR format, and again, it’s dynasty, but also in a looking-forward fashion, meaning the future matters more than anything, but some drafters took Weeks 7-16 (2015) into account as well. Rounds 1 and 2, and part of 3, took place on our forums, so keep that in mind as I write this up, this was not my ranking.

Thanks to all who participated in this mock draft!

2016 Dynasty Mock Draft

Date: 10/24/15

Round One

1.01 – LeVeon Bell
1.02 – Julio Jones
1.03 – Antonio Brown
1.04 – Odell Beckham Jr.
1.05 – Todd Gurley
1.06 – Rob Gronkowski
1.07 – Dez Bryant
1.08 – Andrew Luck
1.09 – AJ Green
1.10 – Eddie Lacy
1.11 – Amari Cooper
1.12 – Aaron Rodgers

Smitty’s Take: I really love the top 10 heading into next year, and I think we have a super-strong 12ish moving forward for Weeks 7-16. While I would personally have DeAndre Hopkins in the top 5-10 overall, keep in mind that this mock draft began on Saturday the 17th, so it was before DeAndre Hopkins had yet another phenomenal outing. My guess is that he would be inside the top 5-10 overall if we had waited two days to begin the mock. This is actually a good thing, as it points out how influential one single week is, even when talking about a player like Hopkins who was already climbing high in value. So, placing Hopkins inside the top 5-10 overall, then pulling up Devonta Freeman into the top 8-12 overall, and maybe knocking Amari Cooper down about 4-5 picks, I love this top 12 overall as is. I think this group of mock drafters did a great job mocking this up. I think both DeMarco Murray and LeSean McCoy command some consideration in the 10-14 overall range. My personal top 20 dynasty players, as of today, are:

1. LeVeon Bell, 2. Julio Jones, 3. Todd Gurley, 4. Antonio Brown, 5. Odell Beckham Jr., 6. Rob Gronkowski, 7. Dez Bryant, 8. DeAndre Hopkins, 9. Aaron Rodgers, 10. Andrew Luck, 11. AJ Green, 12. Devonta Freeman, 13. Eddie Lacy, 14. Amari Cooper, 15. Demaryius Thomas, 16. LeSean McCoy, 17. DeMarco Murray, 18. Melvin Gordon, 19. Carlos Hyde, 20. Josh Gordon

My guess is No. 20, Josh Gordon, is a surprise, but note that that could become the norm in 4-5 short months, or he could fall out of fantasy relevance all together. He is a risky player, but someone to keep on your trade radar right now!

Round Two

2.01 – Devonta Freeman
2.02 – DeAndre Hopkins
2.03 – Demaryius Thomas
2.04 – Melvin Gordon
2.05 – Carlos Hyde
2.06 – Keenan Allen
2.07 – LeSean McCoy
2.08 – Randall Cobb
2.09 – DeMarco Murray
2.10 – Alshon Jeffery
2.11 – Allen Robinson
2.12 – Jordan Matthews

Smitty’s Take: As I said above, DeAndre Hopkins was ranked a bit low in this mock, but this mock draft began the day before Week 6 kicked off — He is pretty much a consensus, top 5-7 overall pick in all dynasty formats. Also, as said above, DeMarco Murray deserves some top 10-14 overall consideration. The rest of this round is loaded with players on the rise, players currently on the decline, and/or coming back from injury as we speak. I’m pretty sure we will see some huge value changes in players like LeSean McCoy, Carlos Hyde, Alshon Jeffery and Melvin Gordon as we close out the remainder of the 2015 fantasy football season.

3.01 – Mike Evans
3.02 – TY Hilton

…this is where the mock ended on the forums, however, I have added the remainder of the third round via a combination of rankings, personal preference and current stats.

Round Three

3.03 – Adrian Peterson
3.04 – Calvin Johnson
3.05 – Matt Forte
3.06 – Jarvis Landry
3.07 – Doug Martin
3.08 – Emmanuel Sanders
3.09 – Lamar Miller
3.10 – Chris Ivory
3.11 – Marshawn Lynch
3.12 – Latavius Murray

Others: Josh Gordon, Brandon Marshall, Jeremy Hill, Travis Kelce, Tyler Eifert, TJ Yeldon, Arian Foster, Tom Brady, Giovani Bernard, Drew Brees, Greg Olsen, Justin Forsett, and many more.

Smitty’s Take: I think Adrian Peterson has at least one more elite year left, so he remains a nice bargain in dynasty, especially if you make two excellent ‘future’ type picks in rounds 1-2. Players like Calvin Johnson, Marshawn Lynch and Matt Forte will either make or break seasons in 2016, as they are falling so low, but that’s why they are falling into the third-round, because of the risk. Will we see Josh Gordon climb into the high third-round, or higher, as we near 2016? I think so! I think many are not considering the possibilities right now, and that’s normal, but it’s a good time to point this out and recommend some trade attempts! Will Chris Ivory rise or climb from his 3.10 spot? Will Latavius Murray rebound down the stretch in 2015? Will Doug Martin maintain his value that he is building on as we speak? Time will tell! Great mock, everyone!

Devonta Freeman the No. 2 fantasy RB moving forward?

devonta-freeman-tevin-coleman

Most fantasy football seasons, a player, often a running back, emerges and reaches top 1-5RB heights… yet, it’s a common reaction to doubt that player’s rise well into the fantasy football season. Well, for those still doubting the rise of Devonta Freeman, it’s time to accept that he is a top 1-3 fantasy running back moving forward (redraft). Freeman is no stranger to being ranked high on my rankings, as he was on last year’s Top 10 Bold Predictions. Now, he failed to deliver last year, clearly, but the talent has been there the entire time, he just needed the chance.

Moving forward in Weeks 6-17, these are my top three fantasy football running backs (redraft):

  1. LeVeon Bell
  2. Devonta Freeman
  3. Todd Gurley

Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte, Eddie Lacy, all three make a good argument to be in the top 2-5 RBs moving forward (Bell is cemented in the 1.01 in all formats for me). And, if we’re talking dynasty, I slot Bell no. 1, as I just mentioned, and Gurley no. 2… Freeman is currently the best candidate for the third spot, though. Disagree? Argue against it below in the comments!

If you know a Devonta Freeman doubter, send him the image above!

Top 25 Fantasy Football Dynasty Players Countdown

smitty fantasy football advice

Welcome to SleeperU, everyone! I couldn’t think of a better way to kickoff the content here at SleeperU than to immediately drop an article ranking the Top 25 Dynasty Players moving forward. The below rankings are based on pure dynasty, meaning unlimited keeper value, and they are based on PPR (points-per-reception). Enjoy.

1. Le’Veon Bell (RB/PIT)

After dropping 1,361 rushing yards, 8TDs, 83 receptions, 854 receiving yards and 3TDs, it’s hard to argue against this ranking. Soon the runner will be back from his two-game suspension, so we will truly get to see if he is ready to regain his No. 1 overall fantasy football position. Redraft or dynasty, he is the No. 1 overall-ranked player moving forward heading into Week 2.

2. Julio Jones (WR/ATL)

As with LeVeon Bell above, it makes no difference, redraft or dynasty, this is the top-ranked player at his position. His foot worries me, I won’t lie, but predicting injury is a risky business. It’s riskier to predict injury than to undervalue this stud, who is fully capable of pulling in 100-110 receptions for 1,400+ yards and 12-15TDs during any given season. The only way I trade Julio away in any format, at this point, is if you can buy-low on a wide receiver also capable of being the No. 1 overall receiver in fantasy (like AJ Green) while also getting something silly-good, like a free Ameer Abdullah, or a huge upgrade at a WR3 into like a Jarvis Landry. I’ve seen these kinds of deals get done, and have recently executed one myself. Again, that’s the ONLY way I trade away Julio, but I’d trade anyone if the price is right, that’s just smart fantasy football managing.

3. Antonio Brown (WR/PIT)

As it stands right now, in late September, 2015, it’s quite strange how strongly I feel about the three names inside the top three. Not necessarily the order, but the names. Most seasons when I do this type of “early look” at next year’s rankings, the top three could change each time I attempt to crank out the ranking. This feels pretty locked-in… for now. Brown is worth the 1.01. All three of Brown, Le’Veon Bell and Julio Jones are equally worth the 1.01. I can see the order in which I list them being different from week to week, no doubt, but not the three names inside this top three are pretty secure if you ask me. The next player likely up could very well turn this into a locked-in top four, he is Antonio Brown capable.

4. Odell Beckham Jr. (WR/NYG)

This is the one player from the remaining players that I feel can jump into that top tier of players above. I think by mid-season, or at least by the end of the 2015 NFL season, we will have a relatively clear-cut top 4 overall players heading into 2016 and beyond. Now, the order of these top 4 so far can be debated, and will be all off-season (2016); but, I think the names listed above, so far, are going to be the norm heading into all 2016 fantasy football mock drafts (dynasty or redraft).

5/6-Tie. Dez Bryant (WR/DAL) / AJ Green (WR/CIN)

AJ Green was a doubted man heading into 2015 fantasy football drafts, and he was one of my biggest draft-low players. He was also my top early season buy-low all last week and the week prior… He had low second-round value, but easily held top 4-7 overall upside (dynasty and redraft). His Week 3 performance, where he dropped 2TDs and over 200 yards receiving, is a quick reminder he can be the top fantasy wide receiver in the league any given season. As for Dez Bryant, the foot injury has a lot of people already bumping him down, yes, even in dynasty. That’s natural. Injuries scare people, even in dynasty formats. This should be taken advantage of. Of course, you won’t exactly steal him away from current fantasy owners in dynasty, but you will likely get him a touch cheaper than normal in some leagues. Bryant easily has top 5 overall fantasy upside moving forward in dynasty, and he is capable of being the leagues’ top fantasy wide receiver during any given season. That’s safe. That’s secure. Wide receivers are a much safer/long-term bet in dynasty start-ups. Send out some trade offers now on Dez, as you might catch someone doubting merely due to the current injury (And, they might be wanting points now to win that 2015 first-place price. So, strike!).

7/8-Tie. Rob Gronkowski (TE/NE) / Todd Gurley (RB/STL)

Rob Gronkowski has clearly pulled ahead of all tight ends in fantasy football. It use to be that we had two monsters, almost three at one point, but now that Jimmy Graham has faded into the night, at least as an elite fantasy tight end, Gronk Smash is the best game in town, and that makes him top 5-10 overall worthy in all formats. So, being ranked at the 7 or 8 spot almost feels too low, but when building a fantasy football team, your team will be less balanced if you rank/draft/trade for Gronk as anything higher than No. 6 or 7 overall. As for Todd Gurley, some might feel this is too high, and this was more the case before his breakout Week 4 outing against the Cards. After that performance, though, my guess is that this ranking is looking more acceptable to those hesitant to crown him a top 1-4 overall RB of the future. Well, my friends, I think he can be as good as the 1.01 by this time next year. You heard me.

…. An update on this article can be found here.

Buy-Low On These 5 Running Backs

smitty fantasy football advice

As we head into Week 3, here are a list of Running Backs to Buy-Low. From dynasty to redraft, these players below are soon likely to be on the rise!

Todd Gurley (RB/STL)

Redraft & Dynasty

Again, like mentioned just above with Melvin Gordon, you won’t be able to buy-low in dynasty, but you can buy at what most would consider ‘fair’ value right now. Considering his future is brighter than most think, buying now is buying low if you ask me. Now, the problem you’re going to find in acquiring Gurley right now, in any format, is that his owner has been waiting for him to play all off-season. Given he is about to take the field, that owner is going to think, ‘no way I trade him now!” That’s why you can’t just go asking for Gurley in a deal one-for-one. Get creative. Go after another player and make Gurley a part of that deal. When you ‘dilute’ a fantasy owner’s urges to protect any single player on their roster (hence, you are doing a 2-for-2, or a 3-for-2, etc.), well, then you increase your odds (by a lot) that the fantasy owner in question will not hold onto stubborn trade instincts. Get creative!

TJ Yeldon (RB/JAC)

Redraft & Dynasty

This kid looks good. He hasn’t dropped that monster game just yet, but I see it on the horizon, and I see it happening this week. Denard Robinson is out with a sprained MCL, which means that it’s time to get the popcorn ready. If you ask me, he has high-end RB2-type upside moving forward, and it’s last call for buying low.

Carlos Hyde (RB/SF)

Redraft & Dynasty

He was one of my biggest breakouts this off-season, and he made all his owners proud after his Week 1 eruption. Then, he got banged up and struggled to produce in Week 2. Now, I’m not saying his fantasy owners are going to revert back to valuing him as a low-end RB2, but I can guarantee you many of his owners have questions rolling into Week 3. Some of those owners might be worried about injury, others might wonder if selling high is the safest play. Buy-low in all formats while he likely has a nice downtick in fantasy value.

Ameer Abdullah (RB/DET)

Redraft & Dynasty

His absence in fantasy relevance in Week 2 was a great thing for those looking to buy Ameer Abdullah shares on the decline. Try getting in on some AA shares this week (in all formats, especially dynasty). If he doesn’t do much in Week 3, this advice will still apply heading into Week 4. We never expected him to be sprinting out of the gate, so nothing has changed since the preseason. He is a secret weapon rusher, one that should thrive down the stretch.

Melvin Gordon (RB/SD)

Redraft & Dynasty

Like TJ Yeldon, I feel a big game coming, at which point buying even somewhat low will no longer be an option. We are talking redraft. In dynasty, it’s tough imagining any of his owners selling low, however, buying at RB2-type value is advised in redraft, as I envision more RB1-type numbers for the future. I am considering that buying low in dynasty. I love Gordon, Yeldon and Todd Gurley in dynasty… these three rushers will help make up the future of fantasy football at the running back position.