Archive for smitty bold predictions

Smitty’s No. 1 Bold Prediction/Strategy for all of 2017!

2017 fantasy football bold predictions smitty
smitty fantasy football advice

Ok, everyone… this is it, my Number One Bold Prediction and Strategy for the Entire 2017 Fantasy Football Season. I have a few gut instinct predictions already on the Bold Predictions list for 2017, aka the Upside Board. However, out of all the advice and strategies I have so far for the 2017 fantasy football season, this is the big one, the one that I feel can win leagues in 2017.

View Bold Prediction No. 1

Bold Predictions: This RB duo is elite!

2017 fantasy football bold predictions smitty
smitty fantasy football advice

Ok, folks, I have just added another 2017 Bold Prediction… this is the most recent addition at the top, and it’s a running back duo that is a must-own given the value of acquiring both. Get some! Enjoy!

View Bold Prediction

Bold Predictions: No. 7 and 8 just added!

2017 fantasy football bold predictions smitty
smitty fantasy football advice

Ok, folks, I have just added TWO more 2017 Bold Prediction… both are wide receivers and both are fully capable of cranking out top 5WR numbers in 2017. Get some! Enjoy!

View No. 7 and 8 Bold Predictions

Bold Prediction No. 1 Released for 2017!

2017 fantasy football bold predictions smitty
smitty fantasy football advice

Ok, folks, while we only had three 2017 Bold Predictions released before tonight, the fourth one, which I JUST added, will currently sit at No. 1 overall. It’s a two player prediction and it’s a running back prediction. Enjoy!

View Bold Prediction #1

Early 2017 Fantasy Football Mock Draft

smitty fantasy football advice

Below is our Early 2017 Fantasy Football Mock Draft (Dynasty/PPR), which took place on our fantasy football forums. So, this draft is not my set of 2017 rankings, it is the results from said draft, which has well over a dozen participants taking turns tossing out names. I have, however, added my commentary to each pick. Also, keep in mind, the draft is still on going, so check back for updates on both the draft results and commentary that will be attached to each pick.

Mock Draft 2017 (Dynasty)

Round One

1.01 – Antonio Brown – In a PPR draft, this is still very, very arguable. Although, if I’m drafting, lock me in for one of Zeke Elliott, LeVeon Bell or David Johnson, as the every-down runner is back in the spotlight and having one of those studs gives any team a huge, huge advantage.
1.02 – Ezekiel Elliott – As stated above, having one of the big three rushers gives you a monster advantage, and I draft one of the big three rushers if I hold a top three pick this year (in any draft/format).
1.03 – LeVeon Bell – See above two comments.
1.04 – David Johnson – See above comments.
1.05 – Odell Beckham Jr. – I like this pick, however, I think expecting some missed games and distractions is now a given. Still, that could be 1-2 games, and he can still be the top-scoring player during any given week. He deserves this ranking, but don’t load up on ODB in all your leagues, because he has medium risk to go along with his huge upside.
1.06 – Julio Jones – Safe and steady. This is great value despite getting up there a touch in age.
1.07 – Mike Evans – This may seem high or low to some, it just depends on your league/style. This kid easily has this kind of upside. He comes with some injury risk, but he can earn this value with 1-2 missed games. Easy.
1.08 – Amari Cooper – This is a bit high to some, and I myself would not draft Coop this high. But, I say that only because he should fall well into the middle of the second round in many drafts. I would not reach this high because he does come with some risk, and the value in drafting/owning Coop moving forward into 2017 is in the fact that he is doubted in a major way. If you don’t own him in an existing dynasty league, trade for him at high-end WR2-type value. He can sometimes be had there! Attack! He has big appeal still in my view, and I think people are jumping the gun way, way too fast calling him a bust, or a for sure future disappointment. Some wide receivers just need 2 full years played before they breakout. It’s not always a lock that players explode during their first or second seasons… I think fantasy worlds are spoiled with the quick results given by players like Odell Beckham. I firmly believe in Amari Cooper, and I think an elite WR1 is in the cards this year… that does not mean I would draft him, or value him, higher than I need to, which seems to be well into the 2nd-round. Well into it!
1.09 – Deandre Hopkins – Everything said about Cooper above can kind of be said here. Hopkins still has top 2-5WR upside for the future. Invest/draft a lot lower than that value, because you can, and that is where the value is… however, don’t write this stud off as a top 1-5 WR even. He is that good. He needs a QB, and hopefully he gets one this off-season.
1.10 – AJ Green – Stud. Steady.
1.11 – Jordan Howard – He is capable of this value, sure, but this is a touch risky counting on top 11 overall value. Take a risk in one league, no problem, I support ya; however, do not load up on Howard at this value in every league, as that’s how you let one player destroy all your seasons.
1.12 – Melvin Gordon – For being arguably a top 1-3 overall player for most all of 2016, this is low. I like it. Risk is kinda baked into this value right here, so try to get him in the 8-12 overall range just like this, that feels like amazing value.

Round Two

2.01 – Jay Ajayi – Everything said about Jordan Howard above can be said here. I love both runners, but both have some risk in the 8-13 overall range. At that value, this has to be arguably your best player on your entire roster. That’s a lot to ask. Both runners can be that good, sure, but it’s a lot to ask vs drafting a bit lower and hitting a home run.
2.02 – Rob Gronkowski – Huge injury risk at this point, but this could be solid value.
2.03 – Sammy Watkins – Huge injury risk. I wonder if we ever see Waktins play 16-game seasons.
2.04 – Dez Bryant – Injury will be a concern moving forward for me. I like him a handful of picks, if not more, below this slot.
2.05 – Todd Gurley – Steal of 2017? I think it’s very, very possible. I love this value. I try to grab Gurley as my second-drafted player in as many leagues as I can, or trade for him at this value in existing leagues.
2.06 – Leonard Fournette – I love this value. Some might call this high, but I have Fournette as a future top 5 overall pick.
2.07 – Devonta Freeman – Equal parts risk and reward right here given this is a dynasty mock draft. However, given the options below, the players left at this point, I trust Freeman enough to say he has good upside for first-round like numbers.
2.08 – Michael Thomas – I love the kid, but this is a tad high for me in any format. I think he can easily earn it, but this is your second-best player if this is the kind of value/slot you toss him into. That’s a lot to ask.
2.09 – Allen Robinson – Value him here in just one league, but I support the risk/reward outlook here.
2.10 – Dalvin Cook – Some might feel this is high, but I like the value/risk. Things could change during the NFL Draft, though, no question.
2.11 – TY Hilton – This seems high. Not so much because he cannot earn this value, but because I feel he can be had much lower on average. I don’t love making him my second-drafted player, or second-best player. It feels like the recipe for a thin team.
2.12 – Aaron Rodgers – In dynasty, or any format really, the stud QB is overlooked. However, I say that only if QBs are going early, or somewhat early. If you can land Brady or Brees in the late third- or fourth-round, something you see sometimes, then taking an ARod this early is a missed opportunity when you can have near the same level of QB and still use your 2nd-rounder on a WR or RB. Value wise, ARod can crush this ranking and win a league as a team’s second-best player. Use the likelihood of where players get drafted in your exact league to determine where you draft a QB like Rodgers, don’t let the general fantasy football population force you into a “you always wait to draft a QB” type mentality.

Round Three

3.01 – Tom Brady – Everything said above with Aaron Rodgers can be applied here. And, if you are thinking that Brady won’t be elite much longer, I say 2 years is safe, and 2 years is a long time even in dynasty.
3.02 – Travis Kelce – I love Kelce, but this is quite high.
3.03 – DeMarco Murray – Solid value despite some risk of drop off (given previous workloads, not necessarily age).
3.04 – Corey Davis – Some may think this is way too high, but I believe this rookie WR will be amazing. Landing spot will determine a lot.
3.05 – LeSean McCoy – Strong value for a guy still playing elite football, and we’re talking top 5-10RB numbers. How many years will he continue to play like a top 10RB? I’d say 1-2 years is a safe bet, and that makes him worth a high first-rounder.
3.06 – Brandin Cooks – What happens if Drew Brees breaks down? Until then, though, Cooks feels very worthy of this selection, it just has a touch of risk given he is a third-drafted player on someone’s team at this slot.
3.07 – Lamar Miller – The talent is there, he could explode from this value. Then again, he needs a passing game. This is a solid slot for him, though. The risk is still kinda present here at 3.07, but he still has monster upside here.
3.08 – Jordy Nelson – He is older, sure, but still elite for 1-2 more years? That’s still a long time in dynasty.
3.09 – Andrew Luck – This is solid value, he can be top 5-10 overall points wise during any given season.
3.10 – Jarvis Landry – I stand by this kid being elite, and I think top 5-10WR elite… he just needs a passing game, and the risk that he doesn’t get one, at least a consistent one, is why he ranks about here. Don’t reach, there is risk, but near as much appeal.

3.08 – On The Clock (stay tuned for updates)…

Radio: Week 1 Preview Show

smitty fantasy football advice

Listen to Smitty on Russ Bliss’ Red Zone as the two discuss Week 1 of the 2016 fantasy football season. Russ (FantasyFootballStarters) and Smitty (SleeperU) discuss sleepers, breakouts, predictions and more heading into Week 1. Get some!

Play Week 1 Preview Show

ADP Data + 93 Player Predictions

smitty fantasy football advice

Ok, folks, as we head into August 1, it’s time to look at fresh 2016 Fantasy Football ADP Data (Average Draft Positions). This data was compiled using some of the best redraft ADPs in the industry, and I have included over 90 player predictions/comments.

2016 August ADP Data

Updated: 8/28/16

BOLD = Amazing Value!

PickNamePosTeamByeSmitty's Take
1.01Antonio BrownWRPIT8Rock solid #1 in ppr.
1.02Todd GurleyRBLA8Double-digit TD season in the cards.
1.03Julio JonesWRATL11Could easily be the top WR this year.
1.04Odell Beckham JrWRNYG8As with Julio, he could easily be the top WR this year, so great value in a sense.
1.05David JohnsonRBARI9Quietly my No. 1 RB this year, so I love the 5-6 draft slot this season!
1.06Adrian PetersonRBMIN6Is this his last elite year? Will he drop off this year?
1.07A.J. GreenWRCIN9He can earn this value. Solid.
1.08Ezekiel ElliottRBDAL7He could hit a wall in Week 10/11, but should earn this value through that time. Sell-high later?
1.09LeVeon BellRBPIT8Solid value given the suspension reduction to 3 games. Grab DWill, though!
1.10DeAndre HopkinsWRHOU9Quietly my No. 1 WR this year. Everyone in the top 5-6WRs this year could be the No. 1, so this is awesome value.
1.11Dez BryantWRDAL7Dak Prescott will be just fine. Dez should have a big year!
1.12Lamar MillerRBHOU9He should explode this year and earn this value!!
2.01Allen RobinsonWRJAC5Amazing second-drafted player.
2.02Rob GronkowskiTENE9Good value for the Gronk!
2.03Jamaal CharlesRBKC5Risky pick - Cuff!
2.04Brandon MarshallWRNYJ11Is this his decline season? I recommend letting someone else draft him this high!
2.05Eddie LacyRBGB4Bust alert at this value!!!!!
2.06Devonta FreemanRBATL11One of the steals of the draft at this value! Cuff him, but wow, this could win a league if he plays like a top 5RB!
2.07Jordy NelsonWRGB4High, but probably worth it!
2.08LeSean McCoyRBBUF10I'm starting to buy at late second-round value, especially if cuffed (might need to double cuff him).
2.09Mike EvansWRTB6Solid second-drafted player, and arguably top 5-10 for WRs this year!
2.10Keenan AllenWRSD11I love Allen, he was a previous year's Bold Prediction. I like him at the very top of the third-round, but he can earn this value if healthy!
2.11Mark IngramRBNO5A tad high given the workload risks in NO.
2.12Doug MartinRBTB6Kind of undervalued, I admit. I still worry about him, though, so at the top of the third-round feels low risk.
3.01Amari CooperWROAK10After Devonta Freeman, this feels like the steal of the draft at this point. He is quietly in my top 3-6WRs this year!!!
3.02Alshon JefferyWRCHI9He still feels risky here.
3.03Brandin CooksWRNO5A tad high, even though I love the kid's skill set.
3.04CJ AndersonRBDEN11A tad high given the risks. Cuff! Or, just draft Booker and have the no risk side of things!
3.05Sammy WatkinsWRBUF10Injury risk for sure, but will easily earn this value if healthy.
3.06Cam NewtonQBCAR7You can't argue this, but I do like Luck and ARod more this year. All three, though, are worth a middle third-round pick, regardless of the general consensus that QBs should be waited on.
3.07Demaryius ThomasWRDEN11The risk is built into this value. Solid.
3.08Aaron RodgersQBGB4I love this value, and I see him go in the 4th. Either way, he can be the highest scorer in fantasy.
3.09Kelvin BenjaminWRCAR7I fear injury.
3.10Carlos HydeRBSF8Solid value. The risk is built in!
3.11T.Y. HiltonWRIND10I hate that his value has climbed so high. He can still earn this, but I loved ranking Hilton higher than most. He has since climbed to value he can earn, but the monster upside is not as big.
3.12Randall CobbWRGB4Risky third-drafted player if you ask me.
4.01DeMarco MurrayRBTEN13Solid value given his top 5-10RB appeal. Cuff him!
4.02Jarvis LandryWRMIA8My secret top 5-10WR this year!
4.03Jeremy HillRBCIN9Undervalued given his ability to maybe hit 10TDs.
4.04Matt ForteRBNYJ11I'm torn on Forte this year.
4.05Jeremy LangfordRBCHI9I like this value. I loved it more in the 5th- and 6th-round range, where it was much of the off-season.. I try to get him later in most drafts, but love him at 48-52 ish overall. Steal right there!
4.06Jordan ReedTEWAS9A bit high given some similar TEs are much lower.
4.07Andrew LuckQBIND10Awesome value. Top 1-2 QB appeal in the late 4th-round?
4.08Thomas RawlsRBSEA5Risky despite his ADP falling. Owning just Christine Michael feels like the way to go this year. Let someone else take the risk here.
4.09Jeremy MaclinWRKC5He produces, but this still feels high given a few names still left.
4.10Julian EdelmanWRNE9Decent value.
4.11Jonathan StewartRBCAR7I'll let someone else draft him here.
4.12Donte MoncriefWRIND10A bit high, but the dude can ball and could earn this value!
5.01Latavius MurrayRBOAK10Too high. Lots of workload risk!
5.02Eric DeckerWRNYJ11About right. Not exciting but solid.
5.03Greg OlsenTECAR7About right.
5.04Russell WilsonQBSEA5About right.
5.05Ryan MathewsRBPHI4I let someone else invest here.
5.06Melvin GordonRBSD11Super, super bounce-back candidate... I love the guy at this value!
5.07Josh GordonWRCLE13I still love Gordon at this value. He can finish as a top 5-10WR even with missed games. He is insane.
5.08Arian FosterRBMIA8About right. He can earn this.
5.09Golden TateWRDET10Higher than I expected.
5.10Doug BaldwinWRSEA5Higher than I expected.
5.11Michael FloydWRARI9I still like a few other players more at this spot.
5.12Drew BreesQBNO5Solid. Very solid.
6.01Allen HurnsWRJAC5Solid!
6.02Marvin JonesWRDET10About right.
6.03DeAngelo WilliamsRBPIT8Hey, this isn't a bad spot, especially if you own Bell. It's a tad high, but you have to ask yourself if any of the players below will make or break your season. If you don't have a QB, I'd say Bortles here, though.
6.04Ameer AbdullahRBDET10Solid. He could bounce-back big, but if he doesn't, this isn't horrible value at all!
6.05Rashad JenningsRBNYG8Decent.
6.06Ben RoethlisbergerQBPIT8Solid.
6.07Larry FitzgeraldWRARI9About right.
6.08Tyler LockettWRSEA5Breakout candidate.
6.09Emmanuel SandersWRDEN11Solid value for sure.
6.10Tom BradyQBNE9Solid.
6.11John BrownWRARI9About right.
6.12Frank GoreRBIND10I like more players here.
7.01Matt JonesRBWAS9Hurt.
7.02Travis KelceTEKC5Solid value, but injury risk.
7.03Coby FleenerTENO5About right.
7.04Delanie WalkerTETEN13Solid value!!!
7.05Giovani BernardRBCIN9Sneaky RB to own this year. All Hill owners should cuff the two!
7.06Duke JohnsonRBCLE13Sleeper/Breakout alert!
7.07Carson PalmerQBARI9Solid.
7.08Blake BortlesQBJAC5Past Devonta Freeman and Amari Cooper, this is the next biggest steal of drafts!
7.09Derrick HenryRBTEN13Solid. I like him more and more for this season, but a must-cuff for Murray owners!!!!
7.10Jordan MatthewsWRPHI4Solid, solid value!
7.11Tyler EifertTECIN9Hurt.
7.12LeGarrette BlountRBNE9Not much risk here and good upside!
8.01DeVante ParkerWRMIA8Sleeper but Landry is the 1.
8.02Chris IvoryRBJAC5Not buying.
8.03Danny WoodheadRBSD11Solid and undervalued.
8.04Justin ForsettRBBAL8Solid.
8.05Sterling ShepardWRNYG8Good value, but expect highs and lows.
8.06Gary BarnidgeTECLE13
8.07Eli ManningQBNYG8
8.08Corey ColemanWRCLE13
8.09DeSean JacksonWRWAS9
8.10TJ YeldonRBJAC5
8.11Kevin WhiteWRCHI9
8.12Michael CrabtreeWROAK10
9.01Isaiah CrowellRBCLE13
9.02Jay AjayiRBMIA8
9.03Philip RiversQBSD11
9.04Julius ThomasTEJAC5
9.05Stefon DiggsWRMIN6
9.06Denver DefenseDEFDEN11
9.07Dion LewisRBNE9Hurt.
9.08Charles SimsRBTB6Cuff to DMart!!!
9.09Christine MichaelRBSEA5Sleeper!!!!!!!
9.10Kamar AikenWRBAL8Solid.
9.11Derek CarrQBOAK10Breakout!
9.12Tevin ColemanRBATL11Must-own for Freeman owners.
10.01Arizona DefenseDEFARI9My favorite D this year!
10.02Antonio GatesTESD11
10.03Devontae BookerRBDEN11Sleeper!!!!
10.04Torrey SmithWRSF8
10.05Seattle DefenseDEFSEA5
10.06Bilal PowellRBNYJ11
10.07Travis BenjaminWRSD11
10.08Devin FunchessWRCAR7
10.09Tyrod TaylorQBBUF10
10.10Markus WheatonWRPIT8
10.11Michael ThomasWRNO5
10.12Carolina DefenseDEFCAR7
11.01Jimmy GrahamTESEA5
11.02James WhiteRBNE9
11.03Kirk CousinsQBWAS9Sleeper.
11.04Matthew StaffordQBDET10
11.05Willie SneadWRNO5
11.06Zach ErtzTEPHI4
11.07Kansas City DefenseDEFKC5
11.08DeAndre WashingtonRBOAK10
11.09Tavon AustinWRLA8
11.10Alfred MorrisRBDAL7
11.11Martellus BennettTENE9
11.12Mohamed SanuWRATL11
12.01Steve SmithWRBAL8
12.02Vincent JacksonWRTB6
12.03Houston DefenseDEFHOU9
12.04Jameis WinstonQBTB6Solid value!!!!
12.05Tyler BoydWRCIN9
12.06Andy DaltonQBCIN9
12.07Minnesota DefenseDEFMIN6
12.08Dwayne AllenTEIND10
12.09Chris JohnsonRBARI9
12.10Rishard MatthewsWRTEN13
12.11Tajae SharpeWRTEN13
12.12Theo RiddickRBDET10
13.01James StarksRBGB4Awsome value given the bust potential for Lacy.
13.02Matt RyanQBATL11
13.03Marcus MariotaQBTEN13
13.04Robert Griffin IIIQBCLE13Sleeper!
13.05Tony RomoQBDAL7
13.06Stephen GostkowskiPKNE9
13.07Charcandrick WestRBKC5I love grabbing both West/Ware as a stash duo (without owning Charles).
13.08Spencer WareRBSEA5I love grabbing both West/Ware as a stash duo (without owning Charles).
13.09Sammie CoatesWRPIT8
13.10NY Jets DefenseDEFNYJ11
13.11Jerick McKinnonRBMIN6
13.12Phillip DorsettWRIND10
14.01Terrelle PryorWRCLE13
14.02Darren SprolesRBPHI4
14.03Los Angeles DefenseDEFLA8
14.04Justin TuckerPKBAL8
14.05Ladarius GreenTEPIT8
14.06Jason WittenTEDAL7
14.07Laquon TreadwellWRMIN6
14.08Jared CookTEGB4
14.09Terrance WestRBBAL8
14.10Zach MillerTECHI9
14.11Mike WallaceWRBAL8
14.12Steven HauschkaPKSEA5

Bold Prediction: Insane Upside QB

smitty fantasy football advice

You know, I love it when someone says that a big-name player cannot be a sleeper. It’s all how you define the term, and I consider a sleeper any player that the general fantasy football population is overlooking. It really is that simple. The quarterback that I just added is being overlooked on an insane level… he could be one of the bigger steals in all of 2016.

Note: The player just added is the first name in the “Middle-Round Sleepers” section.

View This QB Prediction

A Bold Prediction… the RB is the stash of 2016?

smitty fantasy football advice

Our 2016 Bold Predictions are where the sleepers and breakouts are at! Each year, I toss out 10-12 big and bold predictions, but this year we have more predictions than ever! And, we created three different Bold Prediction Tiers… Big Name Players, Middle Round Players and Deep, Deep Sleepers. The running back just added might end up being the best RB stash of 2016 when all is said and done! Who is he? Find out below!

The player just added is the very FIRST player (RB) in the bottom section called Deep, Deep Sleepers.

fantasy football bold predictions 2016
View Bold Predictions

A new Bold Prediction (rookie) released…

smitty fantasy football advice

Looking for 2016 Bold Predictions? For those that don’t know, each and every fantasy football season, I crank out 10-15 Bold Predictions, which are breakouts and sleepers for the upcoming (2016) fantasy football season. Sometimes these are big name players that still have big upside, and other times the players are deep, deep sleepers… this year, the predictions are organized in terms of how well know the players are. So, you’re deeper sleepers will be grouped together, as will the big name players.

The player just added is the very FIRST player (RB) at the top of the Deep, Deep Sleepers section.

fantasy football bold predictions 2016
View Bold Predictions