Below is our Early 2017 Fantasy Football Mock Draft (Dynasty/PPR), which took place on our fantasy football forums. So, this draft is not my set of 2017 rankings, it is the results from said draft, which has well over a dozen participants taking turns tossing out names. I have, however, added my commentary to each pick. Also, keep in mind, the draft is still on going, so check back for updates on both the draft results and commentary that will be attached to each pick.
1.01 – Antonio Brown – In a PPR draft, this is still very, very arguable. Although, if I’m drafting, lock me in for one of Zeke Elliott, LeVeon Bell or David Johnson, as the every-down runner is back in the spotlight and having one of those studs gives any team a huge, huge advantage.
1.02 – Ezekiel Elliott – As stated above, having one of the big three rushers gives you a monster advantage, and I draft one of the big three rushers if I hold a top three pick this year (in any draft/format).
1.03 – LeVeon Bell – See above two comments.
1.04 – David Johnson – See above comments.
1.05 – Odell Beckham Jr. – I like this pick, however, I think expecting some missed games and distractions is now a given. Still, that could be 1-2 games, and he can still be the top-scoring player during any given week. He deserves this ranking, but don’t load up on ODB in all your leagues, because he has medium risk to go along with his huge upside.
1.06 – Julio Jones – Safe and steady. This is great value despite getting up there a touch in age.
1.07 – Mike Evans – This may seem high or low to some, it just depends on your league/style. This kid easily has this kind of upside. He comes with some injury risk, but he can earn this value with 1-2 missed games. Easy.
1.08 – Amari Cooper – This is a bit high to some, and I myself would not draft Coop this high. But, I say that only because he should fall well into the middle of the second round in many drafts. I would not reach this high because he does come with some risk, and the value in drafting/owning Coop moving forward into 2017 is in the fact that he is doubted in a major way. If you don’t own him in an existing dynasty league, trade for him at high-end WR2-type value. He can sometimes be had there! Attack! He has big appeal still in my view, and I think people are jumping the gun way, way too fast calling him a bust, or a for sure future disappointment. Some wide receivers just need 2 full years played before they breakout. It’s not always a lock that players explode during their first or second seasons… I think fantasy worlds are spoiled with the quick results given by players like Odell Beckham. I firmly believe in Amari Cooper, and I think an elite WR1 is in the cards this year… that does not mean I would draft him, or value him, higher than I need to, which seems to be well into the 2nd-round. Well into it!
1.09 – Deandre Hopkins – Everything said about Cooper above can kind of be said here. Hopkins still has top 2-5WR upside for the future. Invest/draft a lot lower than that value, because you can, and that is where the value is… however, don’t write this stud off as a top 1-5 WR even. He is that good. He needs a QB, and hopefully he gets one this off-season.
1.10 – AJ Green – Stud. Steady.
1.11 – Jordan Howard – He is capable of this value, sure, but this is a touch risky counting on top 11 overall value. Take a risk in one league, no problem, I support ya; however, do not load up on Howard at this value in every league, as that’s how you let one player destroy all your seasons.
1.12 – Melvin Gordon – For being arguably a top 1-3 overall player for most all of 2016, this is low. I like it. Risk is kinda baked into this value right here, so try to get him in the 8-12 overall range just like this, that feels like amazing value.
2.01 – Jay Ajayi – Everything said about Jordan Howard above can be said here. I love both runners, but both have some risk in the 8-13 overall range. At that value, this has to be arguably your best player on your entire roster. That’s a lot to ask. Both runners can be that good, sure, but it’s a lot to ask vs drafting a bit lower and hitting a home run.
2.02 – Rob Gronkowski – Huge injury risk at this point, but this could be solid value.
2.03 – Sammy Watkins – Huge injury risk. I wonder if we ever see Waktins play 16-game seasons.
2.04 – Dez Bryant – Injury will be a concern moving forward for me. I like him a handful of picks, if not more, below this slot.
2.05 – Todd Gurley – Steal of 2017? I think it’s very, very possible. I love this value. I try to grab Gurley as my second-drafted player in as many leagues as I can, or trade for him at this value in existing leagues.
2.06 – Leonard Fournette – I love this value. Some might call this high, but I have Fournette as a future top 5 overall pick.
2.07 – Devonta Freeman – Equal parts risk and reward right here given this is a dynasty mock draft. However, given the options below, the players left at this point, I trust Freeman enough to say he has good upside for first-round like numbers.
2.08 – Michael Thomas – I love the kid, but this is a tad high for me in any format. I think he can easily earn it, but this is your second-best player if this is the kind of value/slot you toss him into. That’s a lot to ask.
2.09 – Allen Robinson – Value him here in just one league, but I support the risk/reward outlook here.
2.10 – Dalvin Cook – Some might feel this is high, but I like the value/risk. Things could change during the NFL Draft, though, no question.
2.11 – TY Hilton – This seems high. Not so much because he cannot earn this value, but because I feel he can be had much lower on average. I don’t love making him my second-drafted player, or second-best player. It feels like the recipe for a thin team.
2.12 – Aaron Rodgers – In dynasty, or any format really, the stud QB is overlooked. However, I say that only if QBs are going early, or somewhat early. If you can land Brady or Brees in the late third- or fourth-round, something you see sometimes, then taking an ARod this early is a missed opportunity when you can have near the same level of QB and still use your 2nd-rounder on a WR or RB. Value wise, ARod can crush this ranking and win a league as a team’s second-best player. Use the likelihood of where players get drafted in your exact league to determine where you draft a QB like Rodgers, don’t let the general fantasy football population force you into a “you always wait to draft a QB” type mentality.
3.01 – Tom Brady – Everything said above with Aaron Rodgers can be applied here. And, if you are thinking that Brady won’t be elite much longer, I say 2 years is safe, and 2 years is a long time even in dynasty.
3.02 – Travis Kelce – I love Kelce, but this is quite high.
3.03 – DeMarco Murray – Solid value despite some risk of drop off (given previous workloads, not necessarily age).
3.04 – Corey Davis – Some may think this is way too high, but I believe this rookie WR will be amazing. Landing spot will determine a lot.
3.05 – LeSean McCoy – Strong value for a guy still playing elite football, and we’re talking top 5-10RB numbers. How many years will he continue to play like a top 10RB? I’d say 1-2 years is a safe bet, and that makes him worth a high first-rounder.
3.06 – Brandin Cooks – What happens if Drew Brees breaks down? Until then, though, Cooks feels very worthy of this selection, it just has a touch of risk given he is a third-drafted player on someone’s team at this slot.
3.07 – Lamar Miller – The talent is there, he could explode from this value. Then again, he needs a passing game. This is a solid slot for him, though. The risk is still kinda present here at 3.07, but he still has monster upside here.
3.08 – Jordy Nelson – He is older, sure, but still elite for 1-2 more years? That’s still a long time in dynasty.
3.09 – Andrew Luck – This is solid value, he can be top 5-10 overall points wise during any given season.
3.10 – Jarvis Landry – I stand by this kid being elite, and I think top 5-10WR elite… he just needs a passing game, and the risk that he doesn’t get one, at least a consistent one, is why he ranks about here. Don’t reach, there is risk, but near as much appeal.
3.08 – On The Clock (stay tuned for updates)…
(1/12/17) Jordan Howard had an awesome rookie season in 2016… on essentially 13 starter-type outings, Howard produced 252 carries for 1,313 rushing yards (5.2) and 6TDs, to go along with 29 receptions for 298 yards and 1TD. That’s a darn good season for a guy that essentially didn’t…
I posted a Jordy Nelson write-up on the Fantasy Stock Market earlier in the week, but I think it’s important to remind everyone how critical it is to buy-low on some of these final remaining undervalued studs, because their values will rebound soon and those that don’t act will miss out! I have a feeling Nelson is going to go nuts in Week 8, and you can read more about it on the Stock Market (if you haven’t already.
Is Dak Prescott about to breakout? Is he a must-own? Listen to Smitty as he predicts huge numbers for Dak Prescott heading into the 2016 fantasy football season!
Ok, so mock draft time is over and it’s time for all of your real 2016 fantasy football drafts. Below is a live/on-going 2016 Expert Fantasy Football Draft (PPR/Redraft). The draft is currently into the 8th-round, and you can follow along here; however, I have the first seven rounds below with my commentary on each and every pick, including my selections (in bold). Enjoy.
QB: Andrew Luck (4.10)
RB1: LeSean McCoy (3.03)
RB2: Jeremy Langford (5.03)
WR1: Julio Jones (1.03)
WR2: Amari Cooper (2.10)
WR3: Josh Gordon (7.03)
Flex: Melvin Gordon (6.10)
|1.01||1||FantasyFootballFetch||Brown, Antonio PIT WR||Clear No. 1 in PPR.|
|1.02||2||DynastyFootballWarehouse||Gurley, Todd RAM RB||A top 5 overall pick in any format, even PPR. He might have a higher PPR ceiling than people think, he is still maturing!|
|1.03||3||SleeperU.Com||Jones, Julio ATL WR||Easy top 2-4 pick in any PPR draft.|
|1.04||4||JunkyardJake||Beckham, Odell NYG WR||Top 1-5 lock in any format.|
|1.05||5||TheFantasySportsBrain||Johnson, David ARI RB||I love DJ this year, he is one of my favorite 5-7 overall picks in 2016!!|
|1.06||6||FFJungle||Hopkins, DeAndre HOU WR||While I rank him right there myself, due to ADP data, I quietly think he can be a top 1-2 overall WR in 2016. I think he dominates this season!|
|1.07||7||BigGuyFantasySports||Bell, Le'Veon PIT RB||I'm warming up to taking a first-round risk on Bell given his suspension 'could' get reduced. Even if he serves 4 games, if you cuff to DWill, the 16 starts you get is a top 1-4RB.|
|1.08||8||FantasySportsCentral||Green, A.J. CIN WR||Always a touch underrated, this is the highest I've seen him go in a while. He deserves this slot, though, he always has 1-5WR appeal.|
|1.09||9||HattyWaiverWireGuru||Robinson, Allen JAC WR||Robinson, if healthy, should easily earn high-end WR1 value in 2016!|
|1.10||10||FantasyFootballNerd||Bryant, Dez DAL WR||Always a risk, mentally and physically, Dez has less risk because his ADP is in the 10-14 overall range.|
|1.11||11||SCOUT Fantasy||Peterson, Adrian MIN RB||He still has one more top 5RB season left, and this is a redraft league.|
|1.12||12||WalterFootball||Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE||He is easily worth this value. I myself do not enjoy drafting a TE in the first-round, only because it's tough to balance out a team with that strategy, but again, he is easily worth top 8-12 overall value.|
|2.01||13||WalterFootball||Allen, Keenan SDC WR||I like Allen, in fact, I think I had him ranked higher than most anyone heading into 2014. He is a touch risky as a top 12-17 overall pick, as it doesn't leave room for a lot of ups and downs, something I fear with Allen in '16.|
|2.02||14||SCOUT Fantasy||Marshall, Brandon NYJ WR||He could have one elite year left, although, it wouldn't be shocking to see him drop off as early as this season.|
|2.03||15||FantasyFootballNerd||Elliott, Ezekiel DAL RB||Zeke fell far in this one, and this is low risk given most everyone is, even in redraft, willing to pay top 5-10 overall value. Great value here!|
|2.04||16||HattyWaiverWireGuru||Cooks, Brandin NOS WR||This is quite high. I like Cooks, but he has to explode to break even.|
|2.05||17||FantasySportsCentral||Freeman, Devonta ATL RB||I was hoping to land Freeman with my 2.10 down below. This is fantastic value at #17 overall, as he was the number one rusher last year and there is no reason to doubt him being at least a top 5-10RB in 2016.|
|2.06||18||BigGuyFantasySports||Hilton, T.Y. IND WR||This is a bit high even though I love Hilton this year. Like Cooks, taking Hilton this high means he HAS to explode.|
|2.07||19||FFJungle||Charles, Jamaal KCC RB||Decent value in terms of risk vs. reward.|
|2.08||20||TheFantasySportsBrain||Miller, Lamar HOU RB||Great value, given he can likely earn this value even if he has some slower than expected weeks. If he is a top 5-10RB, this ends up being a steal.|
|2.09||21||JunkyardJake||Evans, Mike TBB WR||I like this pick. It's fair value, and he still has room to explode.|
|2.10||22||SleeperU.Com||Cooper, Amari OAK WR||This is my favorite 2nd-round WR right now. Steal, as I see a potential top 5WR season in the cards for Coop.|
|2.11||23||DynastyFootballWarehouse||Newton, Cam CAR QB||This is high given I like ARod and Luck better, or at least equal, and both seem to be easily had in the 4th-round (sometimes 5th for Luck).|
|2.12||24||FantasyFootballFetch||Nelson, Jordy GBP WR||I like Jordy this year, and some doubt him. But, this is a handful of picks too high for me. I have him as a potential steal in the mid-to-late third-round.|
|3.01||25||FantasyFootballFetch.com||Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB||Usually he falls further, but I fault no one for grabbing a 40TD capable WR as a third drafted player. In fact, you won't likely ever see me pass on ARod or Luck this year if they fall to my 4th-round pick in any draft.|
|3.02||26||DynastyFootballWarehouse.Com||Jeffery, Alshon CHI WR||This is about right.|
|3.03||27||SleeperU.Com||McCoy, LeSean BUF RB||Ok, so this is where I admit I may be changing my thinking on LeSean McCoy this year. I have seen him fall into the third-round so much, he went from risky to solid in my eyes as a third-drafted player. Cuff him to Gillislee and Willams, though, if you draft him!|
|3.04||28||JunkyardJake.Com||Watkins, Sammy BUF WR||This is about right.|
|3.05||29||TheFantasySportsBrain.com||Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR||This is about right.|
|3.06||30||FFJungle.Com||Ingram, Mark NOS RB||This is about right.|
|3.07||31||BigGuyFantasySports.com||Landry, Jarvis MIA WR||A reach according to some ADP data, but I still think Landry can be a top 10WR this year, which means this is actually decent value for sure.|
|3.08||32||FantasySportsCentral.Com||Lacy, Eddie GBP RB||Solid value. I don't like Lacy in the 2nd-round, but the third-round is decent upside given the risk!|
|3.09||33||HattyWaiverWireGuru.Com||Martin, Doug TBB RB||Solid value.|
|3.10||34||FantasyFootballNerd.com||Tate, Golden DET WR||A bit of a reach here even if you like the guy.|
|3.11||35||SCOUT Fantasy||Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR||A huge reach here even if you like the guy.|
|3.12||36||WalterFootball.Com||Benjamin, Kelvin CAR WR||Decent value vs. risk.|
|4.01||37||WalterFootball.Com||Murray, DeMarco TEN RB||I like this pick if you back him up with Henry. The duo seems secure.|
|4.02||38||SCOUT Fantasy||Forte, Matt NYJ RB||Solid given the reward potential.|
|4.03||39||FantasyFootballNerd.com||Cobb, Randall GBP WR||Decent value.|
|4.04||40||HattyWaiverWireGuru.Com||Maclin, Jeremy KCC WR||A bit high for me.|
|4.05||41||FantasySportsCentral.Com||Decker, Eric NYJ WR||A bit high for me.|
|4.06||42||BigGuyFantasySports.com||Hurns, Allen JAC WR||This is about right.|
|4.07||43||FFJungle.Com||Reed, Jordan WAS TE||I wait on TEs after Gronk, but you can't argue the value here.|
|4.08||44||TheFantasySportsBrain.com||Moncrief, Donte IND WR||He is a sleeper for sure, but this seems high as a 4th-drafted player.|
|4.09||45||JunkyardJake.Com||Hyde, Carlos SFO RB||Solid value given he has top 8-13RB appeal.|
|4.10||46||SleeperU.Com||Luck, Andrew IND QB||I love this pick. As I said above, I most likely will not pass in the 4th-round on ARod or Luck at any point in any draft in 2016. I know, waiting on a QB is popular... I'll keep drafting a top 1-5 overall player with 40TD potential in the 4th-round.|
|4.11||47||DynastyFootballWarehouse.Com||Baldwin, Doug SEA WR||I actually like Tyler Lockett more this year, so I am not a fan of this pick.|
|4.12||48||FantasyFootballFetch.com||Lewis, Dion NEP RB||Solid value, but still some risk as this is the 4th player for this team. If he stays healthy, Dion could easily earn this and more, though.|
|5.01||49||FantasyFootballFetch.com||Kelce, Travis KCC TE||A reach, but he is capable of being this good.|
|5.02||50||DynastyFootballWarehouse.Com||Rawls, Thomas SEA RB||If you invest in Rawls this high in 2016, be certain to back him up. The problem is, there are more than one back-up that you will have to acquire, as the back-up job is still up in the air.|
|5.03||51||SleeperU.Com||Langford, Jeremy CHI RB||I love how many consider this a reach. Langford has top 10RB upside and can easily earn this value on a somewhat disappointing season. His competition is weak. All he has to do is stay on the field and hold onto the football. Steal.|
|5.04||52||JunkyardJake.Com||Johnson, Duke CLE RB||Potential steal.|
|5.05||53||TheFantasySportsBrain.com||Anderson, C.J. DEN RB||Solid value. I doubt CJ a bit, and he HAS TO be handcuffed to Booker. That said, this is low risk in many ways, especially if you get him handcuffed.|
|5.06||54||FFJungle.Com||Edelman, Julian NEP WR||He can earn this. He can also get hurt.|
|5.07||55||BigGuyFantasySports.com||Wilson, Russell SEA QB||Decent value for sure.|
|5.08||56||FantasySportsCentral.Com||Murray, Latavius OAK RB||A mix of decent value and risk.|
|5.09||57||HattyWaiverWireGuru.Com||Olsen, Greg CAR TE||Decent value.|
|5.10||58||FantasyFootballNerd.com||Brees, Drew NOS QB||Solid value.|
|5.11||59||SCOUT Fantasy||Matthews, Jordan PHI WR||Sleeper.|
|5.12||60||WalterFootball.Com||Hill, Jeremy CIN RB||Great value given his TD upside. Hill makes for a sneaky RB2 at this value in 2016.|
|6.01||61||WalterFootball.Com||Sanders, Emmanuel DEN WR||Decent value, but still some risk given the QB situation in DEN.|
|6.02||62||SCOUT Fantasy||Woodhead, Danny SDC RB||A bit high.|
|6.03||63||FantasyFootballNerd.com||Jones, Matt WAS RB||Solid value. I loved Jones last year, but he has to hold onto the ball and stay on the field.|
|6.04||64||HattyWaiverWireGuru.Com||Mathews, Ryan PHI RB||Overvalued if you ask me. I like Smallwood this year as a sleeper to stash for later. Much later.|
|6.05||65||FantasySportsCentral.Com||Floyd, Michael ARI WR||Decent value, but he still worries me in terms of being consistent.|
|6.06||66||BigGuyFantasySports.com||Lockett, Tyler SEA WR||Solid value. Sleeper alert!|
|6.07||67||FFJungle.Com||Bernard, Giovani CIN RB||Sleeper given his potential if he gets the starting nod. Even if he doesn't get the nod, this value is about right, so the upside is present!|
|6.08||68||TheFantasySportsBrain.com||Parker, DeVante MIA WR||Decent value, but many expect him to be better than Landry. I do not.|
|6.09||69||JunkyardJake.Com||White, Kevin CHI WR||I'll let others draft him this high. I need to see more.|
|6.10||70||SleeperU.Com||Gordon, Melvin SDC RB||I love this pick. I was hoping he would fall to me, as I think we might see the same player we thought we were going to see last year. Huge upside and low risk right here.|
|6.11||71||DynastyFootballWarehouse.Com||Gore, Frank IND RB||This is a bit high, but Gore has proven me wrong for a couple years now, as I keep predicting decline.|
|6.12||72||FantasyFootballFetch.com||Foster, Arian MIA RB||I like this value given Foster could be a strong RB2 for as long as he stays on the field.|
|7.01||73||FantasyFootballFetch.com||Fleener, Coby NOS TE||Decent value.|
|7.02||74||DynastyFootballWarehouse.Com||Walker, Delanie TEN TE||Decent value.|
|7.03||75||SleeperU.Com||Gordon, Josh CLE WR||If he returns to form, this is a huge, huge steal. If he doesn't rebound to his old form, I think he can still earn this value.|
|7.04||76||JunkyardJake.Com||Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB||I will let others take him this year.|
|7.05||77||TheFantasySportsBrain.com||Thomas, Michael NOS WR||This is kinda high, but the kid looks good and is in a good situation to mature fast.|
|7.06||78||FFJungle.Com||Crabtree, Michael OAK WR||A bit of a reach.|
|7.07||79||BigGuyFantasySports.com||Forsett, Justin BAL RB||I eventually think Kenneth Dixon wins this job in BAL.|
|7.08||80||FantasySportsCentral.Com||Shepard, Sterling NYG WR||Sold value here, but some are reaching much higher. I think this is about right.|
|7.09||81||HattyWaiverWireGuru.Com||Brady, Tom NEP QB||Decent value for sure, as he is a top 1-4QB when back.|
|7.10||82||FantasyFootballNerd.com||Brown, John ARI WR||Decent value.|
|7.11||83||SCOUT Fantasy||Abdullah, Ameer DET RB||Sleeper alert. Or, bounce-back candidate rather. Like Melvin Gordon, Abdullah has huge bounce-back upside and we might see the same player we thought we were going to see last year.|
|7.12||84||WalterFootball.Com||Jones, Marvin DET WR||Decent value, but not an exciting pick. But, the player pool is starting to get thin.|
If you haven’t yet signed up for SleeperU 2016, you’re missing out! Here is is one reason why below…
Our fantasy football Mock Drafts here at SleeperU are insane. You can:
These mock drafts are instant and you can draft over and over testing out all of your 2016 fantasy football draft strategies. Check out our Demo Video right on this page, it will give you one heck of a tour!
We are again excited to announce the launching of our new Fantasy Football Stock Market. This is where you will find the players both on the rise and on the decline; however, just because a player is on the rise, that doesn’t always mean we agree, or we might suggest fantasy owners to sell-high. On the flip side, sometimes we love that a player’s value is on the decline, it can often make for a great time to buy-low. Waiver wire grabs, trade advice, or early draft help, this feature has you covered!
Each and every fantasy football season, a grip of big name players hold a ton of risk heading into the months of July, August and September. When does that risk outweigh the reward? Let’s dig into a handful of Risky Running Backs heading into 2016. Keep in mind, though, a player may be listed below and still be worth the risk, so read the write-up for each player!
Note: I’ve already written a ton on Devonta Freeman, a player that would normally top such a list. To read more on his 2016 value, click here.
With an ADP in the 2.01-2.04 range, there is a lot to like about Jamaal Charles (ACL). However, there is still a great amount of risk, as he is coming of ACL surgery and there are still a ton of solid and safer players to snag in that 2.01-2.04 range, players like Allen Robinson, Devonta Freeman, Lamar Miller, etc… So, in redraft, is the risk worth the reward at an ADP near 2.01-2.04? I say no, not before players like Ezekiel Elliott, AJ Green, Doug Martin, Dez Bryant, Lamar Miller, Allen Robinson and maybe even Mike Evans. So, once you include all the obvious choices, like Gronk and everyone above him, you’re looking at about 2.06-2.08 before I start considering Charles and his red flags (two major knee surgeries in 2 years). He is still a second-round pick, though, and we are talking redraft still… in dynasty, I think he has a solid 1-2 years left (likely 2)… and that makes him very undervalued in dynasty. Trade for him if you want to win now and can get him dirt cheap… second- or third-round dynasty value is not considered cheap, so buy lower than that or not at all.
This is a tough player to call out, as he is on the Bold Predictions list. However, he was added last year when his value was silly-low, and back then, it wasn’t even sniffing 3rd- or 4th-round value. His value has since climbed to crazy-high heights, heights I recommended to sell-high on months ago… now his value continues to fall as injury concerns continue to swirl. So, as it stands now, his ADP is still near the very bottom of the second-round, which is still kind of high given the risks of both injury and his short resume. I maybe like him as a late 3rd-rounder, and I loved him when he cracked the Bold Predictions at value way, way below 3rd- and 4th-round value… that time is gone, and those who traded for him on the cheap in dynasty back when he cracked the Bold Predictions, nice work… but I say there is way too much risk buying him at even high third-round value, and that’s where he is currently valued even with the recent doubt/injury concerns. I like the kid, as he is on the Bold Predictions list for a reason (given the value he once sat at)… but, everything boils down to value, or risk vs. reward… in redraft, with a late second-round ADP, you’re talking about safer options like Amari Cooper and Matt Forte potentially being available. In dynasty, there is little chance Cooper will be available in the late second-round, but there are still safer options over Rawls in dynasty if you ask me. Draft safer.
I have come to the conclusion that DeMarco Murray will be overlooked no matter what happens heading into August/September, as he has a super-solid 4.06 in redraft right now. It just doesn’t seem to climb, there is so much doubt! And, his dynasty value is at least that, if not lower. That’s low-risk, because you’re talking about players like Golden Tate, Matt Jones and Doug Baldwin being slotted around him. Not that those types aren’t strong fantasy options, but Murray arguably still has top 5RB upside. I know the risk is huge if you’re expecting that kind of output, but at 4.06, there is more than enough risk built into the value, and even if he shares carries more than we’d like, earning 4.06-type value is still attainable. I am 50/50 on Murray being able to return to his elite self, but I’m closer to 100% on loving the odds when looking at it from a 4.06 draft selection. Trade accordingly (value-wise) in dynasty!
Eddie Lacy did look very undervalued heading into the very beginning of the 2016 fantasy football off-season. Since then, though, his ADP has climbed way too high, and we’re talking 2.05-2.08 range (for dynasty and redraft). That’s way too high if you ask me, as safer players like Doug Martin, Amari Cooper (in redraft), Mike Evans (in redraft) and Matt Forte (in redraft) are all likely to be available at Lacy’s draft slot. Sell on the high in dynasty, as his value is super good and you can get a much safer player in dynasty if you trade him in now. Even if he does rebound, remember, you’re getting a similar player that should work out as well, you’re just trading him in for a less risky player.
The dude comes with a lot of risk merely because his coach is Chip Kelly. However, at a current redraft ADP of 4.01-4.03 (near the same in dynasty), risk appears to be built-in! Given the players around this 4.01 slot, I like the upside vs. the risk. Just handcuff him to his back-up to play it safe (for now it’s Shaun Draughn but that could change quickly).
No one was likely more disappointed with Melvin Gordon as a rookie than I was. I had huge, huge expectations. I still love his skill set, and if he can pull in passes, hold onto the football, and make better decisions, I think he will have a big second season in the NFL. At a 6th- to 7th-round ADP in redraft (maybe a round higher in dynasty), I love the value. The risk is low, as you’re talking about players like Larry Fitzgerald, Frank Gore, and some TEs in that range.
At a 4.01-4.03 ADP, I love this value. There is definitely risk here, as Landford has a short resume and doesn’t have a super-lock on the starting running back job in Chicago. However, he is dynamic, I love what I’ve seen out of him thus far, and he currently does have the keys to the starting gig… I think top 10RB upside is possible if he stays healthy, so at 4th-round value, there is more to like than be concerned with! The key to this is ensuring you have the back-up, and that could be Jordan Howard or Carey.