Archive for sleepers

2018 Bold Prediction #2

2018 fantasy football bold predictions smitty
smitty fantasy football advice

Ok, everyone, here is the second-added Bold Prediction for the 2018 fantasy football season. Each season, I crank out 10-12 deep/bold predictions, and while Alvin Kamara and DeAndre Hopkins cracked the list last year, I plan to nail more in 2018, don’t you guys worry! Here is the second one for 2018… enjoy!

View Bold Prediction No. 2

Week 15 Projections | 2017

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2018 QBs Rise/Decline

2018 QBs On The Rise

  1. Carson Wentz | QB PHI
  2. Jared Goff | QB LAR
  3. Kirk Cousins | QB WAS
  4. Derek Carr | QB OAK
  5. Jimmy Garoppolo | QB SF

2018 QBs On the Decline

  1. Drew Brees | QB NO
  2. Philip Rivers | QB LAC
  3. Alex Smith | QB KC
  4. Ben Roethlisberger | QB PIT
  5. Matt Ryan | QB ATL
smitty sleeper u fantasy football

On The Rise

While the 2017 fantasy football season is winding down, it’s never too early to start preparing for both 2018 redraft and 2018 dynasty thinking. So, what 2018 quarterbacks could fail to meet expectations? Which group could take a huge step forward? Let’s dig into a few names for each side of this.

Carson Wentz emerged in 2017 as a rising star, and as of Week 14, he’s a top 1-2 fantasy QB through 13 weeks and shows no signs of slowing down. So, he’s already a star and a top 1-4QB lock heading into 2018. However, that doesn’t mean that he cannot improve beyond the fantasy production that he’s currently cranking out, which currently is 3,005 passing yards, 29TDs and 6INTs. His 38TD-pace is something I’d kind of set as the expectation for next year, but his pace of what looks like it will be 4,000 passing yards could be a good 400-700 yards more in 2018. The guy has instincts many passers don’t have, and the Eagles have surrounded him with everything he needs to continue to improve. I really think Wentz is looking like the most attractive long-term fantasy football QB heading into the next 10 years. I love Aaron Rodgers, and he certainly has enough years left to not let his age affect his dynasty ranking much, if any, but Wentz has youth on his side with the talent. He might be my No. 1 overall heading into 2018 dynasty start-ups. Rodgers might get the redraft nod heading into 2018, though, but it’s close enough to call these two QBs the top two QBs in fantasy.

Jared Goff has a chance to develop into a consistent top 7-10 fantasy football QB. That’s where he currently sits in most formats, around 7-8 overall for 2017 fantasy football QBs. With the Rams looking like a whole new team in 2017, the sky is the limit for that offense and Goff.

Kirk Cousins, at the start of Week 14 of the 2017 season, is ranking in right around the top 5-6 in most league’s scoring format. The thing is, he got off to a slow start in 2017, and his top wide receivers (Pryor and Crowder) didn’t show up to help him early on… Pryor never showed up to perform, and Crowder took until Week 8 to do anything of note. Jordan Reed has been banged up all year as well, and the running back situation has been a mess. To me, this suggests that Cousins has even more of a ceiling than this top 5-6 overall QB play. Draft him as a top 5-6 fantasy QB heading into 2018 fantasy football drafts, and consider him at that value via trade in existing and start-up dynasty leagues… however, know that he might be hiding another level of fantasy football play, thus making him a high-upside player for the future.

Derek Carr has been up and down this year, and may still have a lot left to prove from a fantasy football QB1 perspective. Draft him with caution, as he hasn’t been a top 10 fantasy QB in 2017… but know he has the ability to be a top 7-10 fantasy football QB if he develops like I think he can.

Jimmy Garoppolo will paint a picture of his future soon, as he is just getting going late in the 2017 fantasy football season. He has a real chance at being a top 10 fantasy football QB of the future, but the 49ers will have to surround him with more talent this coming off-season. Time will tell if they deliver.

Potentially On The Decline

Drew Brees has truly disappointed fantasy football worlds in 2017, as he is, as of Week 14, ranking well outside the top 10 fantasy football QBs. The thing is, he has played well and commanded that Saints offense well, as the Saints have been one of the best teams in football this season… but, the team has transformed into a rushing-driven monster, so Brees has shifted into a game manager, which crushes his fantasy football upside. Still, he can’t yet be considered a QB that has fallen off talent wise, so he will likely turn into a value grab QB in 2018 drafts (in all formats, too). He comes with risk that he again isn’t passing as much as he use to, but I think for another year or so, he will still have the talent to be elite, so he will kind of be a dormant-in-waiting top 5 fantasy QB.

Philip Rivers will be 37 heading into the 2018 fantasy football season, and he has been up and down this year. Lately, he has scored big, but he is ranking somewhere in the 9-11 overall QB range through Week 13. It’s safe to consider him a top 10-15QB in 2018 and I think it’s also safe to look at Rivers no more than one season out at a time.

Alex Smith has been up and down in 2017, but his recent ‘down’ play had many thinking he would be on a short leash heading into Weeks 13-17. However, in Week 13, Smith had a huge game, so his place as the team’s starter for the remainder of 2017 seems secure. However, Patrick Mahomes has monster upside heading into the future. Will he get a chance to start in 2018? Maybe, maybe not… time will tell. Mahomes could be a rising star, though. Know that!

Ben Roethlisberger has talked about retirement in the past, and he started off in awful fashion in early 2017. His future is very much in question.

Matt Ryan dropped off big-time in 2017. His place in the elite fantasy QBs no longer exists.

Week 14 Projections | 2017

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Week 13 Projections | 2017

Season Weekly Start Bench Calc

Below you will find our Week 12 Projections for the 2017 fantasy football season. The table below is sortable by both PPR and Non-PPR, so sort based on your preference. These projections/stats were created based on standard scoring; a mix of the rankings and previous/current season stats help create these projections.

Week 13 Projections by Match-Up

Updated: 12/2/2017
These projections are compiled using half of Smitty’s rankings and half previous year’s stats against SOS

Sort using CAR, AZ, or by RB, WR, TEE, or Thomas, etc.
PlayerPos MatchupPa YdPa TDPa INTRu YdRu TDRecRe YdRe TDNon-PPRPPR
Tom BradyQBNENE@BUF355300000035.7535.75
Russell WilsonQBSEASEA v PHI3002020100035.0035.00
LeVeon BellRBPITPIT@CIN0001552435031.0035.00
Drew BreesQBNONO v CAR333300000034.6534.65
Carson WentzQBPHIPHI@SEA2903010000033.5033.50
Cam NewtonQBCARCAR@NO2852025000028.7528.75
Kirk CousinsQBWASWAS@DAL300205000027.5027.50
Philip RiversQBLACLAC v CLE2802010000027.0027.00
Ben RoethlisbergerQBPITPIT@CIN2752010000026.7526.75
Tyrod TaylorQBBUFBUF v NE2551128100026.5526.55
Alex SmithQBKCKC@NYJ2902110000026.5026.50
Alvin KamaraRBNONO v CAR000881565021.3026.30
Antonio BrownWRPITPIT@CIN000006140120.0026.00
Jimmy GaroppoloQBSFSF@CHI2802110000026.0026.00
Dak PrescottQBDALDAL v WAS2351130100025.7525.75
Josh McCownQBNYJNYJ v KC2752110000025.7525.75
Matt RyanQBATLATL v MIN280215000025.5025.50
Jared GoffQBLARLAR@AZ270215000025.0025.00
Todd GurleyRBLARLAR@AZ0001101435020.5024.50
Derek CarrQBOAKOAK v NYG275220000023.7523.75
Mark IngramRBNONO v CAR000951440019.5023.50
Blaine GabbertQBAZAZ v LAR240210000023.0023.00
AJ GreenWRCINCIN v PIT000006110117.0023.00
Julio JonesWRATLATL v MIN000006110117.0023.00
Andy DaltonQBCINCIN v PIT240210000023.0023.00
Leonard FournetteRBJACJAC v IND0001201315019.5022.50
Melvin GordonRBLACLAC v CLE000801435017.5021.50
Mike EvansWRTBTB@GB00000690115.0021.00
DeAndre HopkinsWRHOUHOU@TEN00000690115.0021.00
Keenan AllenWRLACLAC v CLE00000688114.8020.80
Michael ThomasWRNONO v CAR00000688114.8020.80
Tyreek HillWRKCKC@NYJ000150580115.5020.50
LeSean McCoyRBBUFBUF v NE000651440016.5020.50
Kareem HuntRBKCKC@NYJ000801422016.2020.20
Brandin CooksWRNENE@BUF00000680114.0020.00
Christian McCaffreyRBCARCAR@NO000551445016.0020.00
Adam ThielenWRMINMIN@ATL00000678113.8019.80
Robby AndersonWRNYJNYJ v KC00000588114.8019.80
Marvin JonesWRDETDET@BAL00000588114.8019.80
Rob GronkowskiTEENENE@BUF00000588114.8019.80
Jordan HowardRBCHICHI v SF000851322016.7019.70
TY HiltonWRINDIND@JAC00000585114.5019.50
Alshon JefferyWRPHIPHI@SEA00000585114.5019.50
Carlos HydeRBSFSF@CHI000701425015.5019.50
Joe MixonRBCINCIN v PIT000801322016.2019.20
Larry FitzgeraldWRAZAZ v LAR00000580114.0019.00
Mohamed SanuWRATLATL v MIN00000580114.0019.00
Jamison CrowderWRWASWAS@DAL00000580114.0019.00
Davante AdamsWRGBGB v TB00000580114.0019.00
Amari CooperWROAKOAK v NYG0000000000.0000.00
Kenny StillsWRMIAMIA v DEN00000580114.0019.00
Corey DavisWRTENTEN v HOU00000580114.0019.00
Devin FunchessWRCARCAR@NO00000580114.0019.00
Nelson AgholorWRPHIPHI@SEA00000580114.0019.00
Dez BryantWRDALDAL v WAS00000580114.0019.00
Devonta FreemanRBATLATL v MIN000551435015.0019.00
Matt MooreQBMIAMIA v DEN265115000018.7518.75
Kenyan DrakeRBMIAMIA v DEN000651422014.7018.70
Marcus MariotaQBTENTEN v HOU2401115000018.5018.50
Jameis WinstonQBTBTB@GB2401112000018.2018.20
Jacoby BrissettQBINDIND@JAC2331115000018.1518.15
Doug BaldwinWRSEASEA v PHI00000570113.0018.00
Demaryius ThomasWRDENDEN@MIA00000570113.0018.00
Trevor SiemianQBDENDEN@MIA2401110000018.0018.00
Tevin ColemanRBATLATL v MIN000401440014.0018.00
Samaje PerineRBWASWAS@DAL000701318014.8017.80
Matthew StaffordQBDETDET@BAL255110000017.7517.75
Jerick McKinnonRBMINMIN@ATL000651322014.7017.70
Travis KelceTEEKCKC@NYJ00000565112.5017.50
Zach ErtzTEEPHIPHI@SEA00000565112.5017.50
Bilal PowellRBNYJNYJ v KC000501425013.5017.50
Kyle RudolphTEEMINMIN@ATL00000565112.5017.50
Brett HundleyQBGBGB v TB2201110000017.0017.00
Orelans DarkwaRBNYGNYG@OAK000651315014.0017.00
Latavius MurrayRBMINMIN@ATL000801210015.0017.00
Jeremy MaclinWRBALBAL v DET00000465112.5016.50
Danny AmendolaWRNENE@BUF00000465112.5016.50
Rishard MatthewsWRTENTEN v HOU00000465112.5016.50
DeShone KizerQBCLECLE@LAC2001115000016.5016.50
Jimmy GrahamTEESEASEA v PHI00000465112.5016.50
Jared CookTEEOAKOAK v NYG00000555111.5016.50
Zay JonesWRBUFBUF v NE00000465112.5016.50
A. Seferian-JenkinsTEENYJNYJ v KC00000555111.5016.50
Blake BortlesQBJACJAC v IND225110000016.2516.25
Alex CollinsRBBALBAL v DET000701212014.2016.20
Mitchell TrubiskyQBCHICHI v SF240120000016.0016.00
Joe FlaccoQBBALBAL v DET220110000016.0016.00
Vernon DavisTEEWASWAS@DAL00000460112.0016.00
Martavis BryantWRPITPIT@CIN00000460112.0016.00
Dion LewisRBNENE@BUF000800440012.0016.00
Evan EngramTEENYGNYG@OAK00000550111.0016.00
Rod SmithRBDALDAL v WAS000451325013.0016.00
Tom SavageQBHOUHOU@TEN233120000015.6515.65
Sammy WatkinsWRLARLAR@AZ00000455111.5015.50
Tyrell WilliamsWRLACLAC v CLE00000455111.5015.50
Marquise GoodwinWRSFSF@CHI00000455111.5015.50
Jamaal WilliamsRBGBGB v TB000651210013.5015.50
Delanie WalkerTEETENTEN v HOU00000455111.5015.50
Case KeenumQBMINMIN@ATL220120000015.0015.00
Josh GordonWRCLECLE@LAC00000690009.0015.00
George KittleTEESFSF@CHI00000450111.0015.00
Corey ClementRBPHIPHI@SEA000331325011.8014.80
Derrick HenryRBTENTEN v HOU000551212012.7014.70
Marshawn LynchRBOAKOAK v NYG000551211012.6014.60
Adrian PetersonRBAZAZ v LAR00070115013.5014.50
DeMarco MurrayRBTENTEN v HOU000400555009.5014.50
Rex BurkheadRBNENE@BUF000451220012.5014.50
CJ AndersonRBDENDEN@MIA000551210012.5014.50
Isaiah CrowellRBCLECLE@LAC000651110013.5014.50
Geno SmithQBNYGNYG@OAK220130000014.0014.00
Golden TateWRDETDET@BAL00000590009.0014.00
Coby FleenerTEENONO v CAR00000440110.0014.00
Stefon DiggsWRMINMIN@ATL00000588008.8013.80
Jordy NelsonWRGBGB v TB00000675007.5013.50
Marqise LeeWRJACJAC v IND00000580008.0013.00
Lamar MillerRBHOUHOU@TEN000650425009.0013.00
Ted GinnWRNONO v CAR00000570007.0012.00
James WhiteRBNENE@BUF000100560007.0012.00
Cooper KuppWRLARLAR@AZ00000480008.0012.00
Tyler KroftTEECINCIN v PIT00000328108.8011.80
Duke JohnsonRBCLECLE@LAC000360440007.6011.60
Tarik CohenRBCHICHI v SF000200545006.5011.50
Corey ColemanWRCLECLE@LAC00000470007.0011.00
Jarvis LandryWRMIAMIA v DEN00000555005.5010.50
Jordan MatthewsWRBUFBUF v NE00000465006.5010.50
Austin HooperTEEATLATL v MIN00000465006.5010.50
Dede WestbrookWRJACJAC v IND00000465006.5010.50
Jay AjayiRBPHIPHI@SEA00040100010.0010.00
Greg OlsenTEECARCAR@NO00000455005.5009.50
Emmanuel SandersWRDENDEN@MIA00000455005.5009.50
Ameer AbdullahRBDETDET@BAL0000000000.0000.00
Paul RichardsonWRSEASEA v PHI00000455005.5009.50
Josh DoctsonWRWASWAS@DAL00000455005.5009.50
DeVante ParkerWRMIAMIA v DEN00000455005.5009.50
Kenny GolladayWRDETDET@BAL00000455005.5009.50
Marcedes LewisTEEJACJAC v IND00000450005.0009.00
Buck AllenRBBALBAL v DET000450315006.0009.00
Shane VereenRBNYGNYG@OAK000100438004.8008.80
Jack DoyleTEEINDIND@JAC00000445004.5008.50
Brandon ColemanWRNONO v CAR00000445004.5008.50
Roger Lewis JrWRNYGNYG@OAK00000445004.5008.50
Mike WallaceWRBALBAL v DET00000445004.5008.50
Jermaine KearseWRNYJNYJ v KC00000445004.5008.50
Danny WoodheadRBBALBAL v DET000100435004.5008.50
Torrey SmithWRPHIPHI@SEA00000444004.4008.40
Austin EkelerRBLACLAC v CLE000350317005.2008.20
Jason WittenTEEDALDAL v WAS00000440004.0008.00
Hunter HenryTEELACLAC v CLE00000440004.0008.00
Donte MoncriefWRINDIND@JAC00000440004.0008.00
Chris MooreWRBALBAL v DET00000440004.0008.00
Randall CobbWRGBGB v TB00000440004.0008.00
Tyler LockettWRSEASEA v PHI00000440004.0008.00
Bennie FowlerWRDENDEN@MIA00000440004.0008.00
Eric DeckerWRTENTEN v HOU00000440004.0008.00
Tavarres KingWRNYGNYG@OAK00000350005.0008.00
OJ HowardTEETBTB@GB00000440004.0008.00
CJ FiedorowiczTEEHOUHOU@TEN00000440004.0008.00
Ben WatsonTEEBALBAL v DET00000440004.0008.00
Eric EbronTEEDETDET@BAL00000440004.0008.00
Charles ClayTEEBUFBUF v NE00000440004.0008.00
Matt ForteRBNYJNYJ v KC000350315005.0008.00
Kendall WrightWRCHICHI v SF00000440004.0008.00
Jacquizz RodgersRBTBTB@GB000350315005.0008.00
DeAndre WashingtonRBOAKOAK v NYG000200325004.5007.50
Alfred MorrisRBDALDAL v WAS00055015006.0007.00
Elijah McGuireRBNYJNYJ v KC000400210005.0007.00
Travis BenjaminWRLACLAC v CLE00000340004.0007.00
J.D. McKissicRBSEASEA v PHI000200318003.8006.80
DeSean JacksonWRTBTB@GB00000333003.3006.30
Theo RiddickRBDETDET@BAL000150318003.3006.30
Taylor GabrielWRATLATL v MIN00000333003.3006.30
JJ NelsonWRAZAZ v LAR00000333003.3006.30
Devontae BookerRBDENDEN@MIA000330210004.3006.30
Jaron BrownWRAZAZ v LAR00000333003.3006.30
Gerald EverettTEELARLAR@AZ00000333003.3006.30
Rashard HigginsWRCLECLE@LAC00000333003.3006.30
Deonte ThompsonWRBUFBUF v NE00000333003.3006.30
Dontrelle InmanWRCHICHI v SF00000333003.3006.30
Brandon LaFellWRCINCIN v PIT00000333003.3006.30
TJ JonesWRDETDET@BAL00000333003.3006.30
Cordarrelle PattersonWROAKOAK v NYG00000333003.3006.30
Seth RobertsWROAKOAK v NYG00000333003.3006.30
Terrance WilliamsWRDALDAL v WAS00000333003.3006.30
Willie SneadWRNONO v CAR00000333003.3006.30
Demarcus RobinsonWRKCKC@NYJ00000330003.0006.00
Adam HumphriesWRTBTB@GB00000330003.0006.00
Kenny BrittWRCLECLE@LAC00000330003.0006.00
Tyler HigbeeTEELARLAR@AZ00000330003.0006.00
Ricky Seals-JonesTEEAZAZ v LAR00000330003.0006.00
Julius ThomasTEEMIAMIA v DEN00000330003.0006.00
Albert WilsonWRKCKC@NYJ00000330003.0006.00
Eddie LacyRBSEASEA v PHI00044015004.9005.90
David NjokuTEECLECLE@LAC00000328002.8005.80
Chad WilliamsWRAZAZ v LAR00000328002.8005.80
Tavon AustinWRLARLAR@AZ000150222003.7005.70
Jalen RichardRBOAKOAK v NYG000250210003.5005.50
TJ YeldonRBJACJAC v IND000250210003.5005.50
Chris IvoyRBJACJAC v IND000250210003.5005.50
Bruce EllingtonWRHOUHOU@TEN00000325002.5005.50
LeGarrette BlountRBPHIPHI@SEA00055000005.5005.50
Alfred BlueRBHOUHOU@TEN000250210003.5005.50
Byron MarshallRBWASWAS@DAL000200210003.0005.00
Giovani BernardRBCINCIN v PIT000150215003.0005.00
Terron WardRBATLATL v MIN000200210003.0005.00
Marlon MackRBINDIND@JAC000150212002.7004.70
Jonathan StewartRBCARCAR@NO00030014003.4004.40
Cole BeasleyWRDALDAL v WAS00000222002.2004.20
Dwayne WashingtonRBDETDET@BAL000100212002.2004.20
Wayne GallmanRBNYGNYG@OAK000100212002.2004.20
Aldrick RobinsonWRSFSF@CHI00000222002.2004.20
Eli RogersWRPITPIT@CIN00000222002.2004.20
Tyler BoydWRCINCIN v PIT00000222002.2004.20
Phillip DorsettWRNENE@BUF00000222002.2004.20
Matt BreidaRBSFSF@CHI000100210002.0004.00
Ed DicksonTEECARCAR@NO00000220002.0004.00
Frank GoreRBINDIND@JAC00025015003.0004.00
Jeremy KerleyWRNYJNYJ v KC00000220002.0004.00
Virgil GreenTEEDENDEN@MIA00000220002.0004.00
Dion SimsTEECHICHI v SF00000220002.0004.00
Jesse JamesTEEPITPIT@CIN00000220002.0004.00
Adam ShaheenTEECHICHI v SF00000220002.0004.00
Braxton MillerWRHOUHOU@TEN00000220002.0004.00
Mike DavisRBSEASEA v PHI00040000004.0004.00
Laquon TreadwellWRMINMIN@ATL00000218001.8003.80
Keelan ColeWRJACJAC v IND00000218001.8003.80
Cameron BrateTEETBTB@GB00000215001.5003.50
Andre EllingtonRBHOUHOU@TEN00020015002.5003.50
James ConnerRBPITPIT@CIN00020015002.5003.50
Lance KendricksTEEGBGB v TB00000215001.5003.50
Chester RodgersWRINDIND@JAC00000215001.5003.50
Garrett CelekTEESFSF@CHI00000211001.1003.10
Ryan GrantWRWASWAS@DAL00000210001.0003.00
Charles SimsRBTBTB@GB00015015002.0003.00
Jamaal CharlesRBDENDEN@MIA00010015001.5002.50
Mike TolbertRBBUFBUF v NE00020000002.0002.00
JuJu Smith-SchusterWRPITPIT@CIN0000000000.0000.00
Michael CrabtreeWROAKOAK v NYG0000000000.0000.00
Damien WilliamsRBMIAMIA v DEN0000000000.0000.00
Sterling ShepardWRNYGNYG@OAK0000000000.0000.00
Kelvin BenjaminWRBUFBUF v NE0000000000.0000.00
Thomas RawlsRBSEASEA v PHI0000000000.0000.00
Martellus BennettTEENENE@BUF0000000000.0000.00
Jonnu SmithTEETENTEN v HOU0000000000.0000.00
Andre HolmesWRBUFBUF v NE0000000000.0000.00
John BrownWRAZAZ v LAR0000000000.0000.00
Markus WheatonWRCHICHI v SF0000000000.0000.00
John RossWRCINCIN v PIT0000000000.0000.00
Wendell SmallwoodRBPHIPHI@SEA0000000000.0000.00
Josh BellamyWRCHICHI v SF0000000000.0000.00
Mike WilliamsWRLACLAC v CLE0000000000.0000.00
Russell ShepardWRCARCAR@NO0000000000.0000.00
Ricard LouisWRCLECLE@LAC0000000000.0000.00
Darren McFaddenRBDALDAL v WAS0000000000.0000.00
Antonio GatesTEELACLAC v CLE0000000000.0000.00
Tyler HigbeeTEELACLAC v CLE0000000000.0000.00
Ryan GriffinTEEHOUHOU@TEN0000000000.0000.00
Brent CelekTEEPHIPHI@SEA0000000000.0000.00
Vance McDonaldTEEPITPIT@CIN0000000000.0000.00
Ty MontgomeryRBGBGB v TB0000000000.0000.00
Breshad PerrimanWRBALBAL v DET0000000000.0000.00
Mike GillisleeRBNENE@BUF0000000000.0000.00
Branden OliverRBLACLAC v CLE0000000000.0000.00
Corey GrantRBJACJAC v IND0000000000.0000.00
Allen HurnsWRJACJAC v IND0000000000.0000.00
Kelvin BenjaminWRCARCAR@NO0000000000.0000.00
Kamar AikenWRINDIND@JAC0000000000.0000.00
Will FullerWRHOUHOU@TEN0000000000.0000.00
Chris HoganWRNENE@BUF0000000000.0000.00
CJ ProsiseRBSEASEA v PHI0000000000.0000.00
Jermaine GreshamTEEAZAZ v LAR0000000000.0000.00
Fozzy WhittakerRBCARCAR@NO0000000000.0000.00
Charcandrick WestRBKCKC@NYJ0000000000.0000.00
Robert TurbinRBINDIND@JAC0000000000.0000.00
Doug MartinRBTBTB@GB0000000000.0000.00
Jordan ReedTEEWASWAS@DAL0000000000.0000.00
Malcolm BrownRBLARLAR@AZ0000000000.0000.00

Week 12 Projections | 2017

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2018 Mock Draft

2018 Mock Draft

Redraft, PPR | Early 2018 fantasy football mock draft | 11-16-2017

    Round One

  1. Le’veon Bell (RB)
  2. David Johnson (RB)
  3. Ezekiel Elliott (RB)
  4. Todd Gurley (RB)
  5. Antonio Brown (WR)
  6. Kareem Hunt (RB)
  7. Odell Beckham (WR)
  8. Leonard Fournette (RB)
  9. Aj Green (WR)
  10. Julio Jones (WR)
  11. Aaron Rodgers (QB)
  12. Melvin Gordon (RB)
  13. Round Two

  14. Carson Wentz (QB)
  15. Deshaun Watson (QB)
  16. Mike Evans (WR)
  17. Deandre Hopkins (WR)
  18. Michael Thomas (WR)
  19. Jordan Howard (RB)
  20. Devonta Freeman (RB)
  21. Christian Mccaffrey (RB)
  22. Alvin Kamara (RB)
  23. Lesean Mccoy (RB)
  24. Brandin Cooks (WR)
  25. Travis Kelce (TE)
  26. Round Three

  27. Tom Brady (QB)
  28. Drew Brees (QB)
  29. Rob Gronkowski (TE)
  30. Jay Ajayi (RB)
  31. Ty Hilton (WR)
  32. Amari Cooper (WR)
  33. Carlos Hyde (RB)
  34. Corey Davis (WR)
  35. Tyreek Hill (WR)
  36. Tevin Coleman (RB)
  37. Joe Mixon (RB)
  38. Derrick Henry (RB)
  39. Round Four

  40. Dez Bryant (WR)
  41. Dalvin Cook (RB)
  42. Doug Baldwin (WR)
  43. Demarco Murray (RB)
  44. Dak Prescott (QB)
  45. Russell Wilson (QB)
  46. Juju Smith-schuster (WR)
  47. Keenan Allen (WR)
  48. Stefon Diggs (WR)
  49. Mark Ingram (RB)
  50. Jordy Nelson (WR)
  51. Davante Adams (WR)
  52. Round Five

  53. Michael Crabtree (WR)
  54. Josh Gordon (WR)
  55. Alshon Jeffery (WR)
  56. Derek Carr (QB)
  57. Kirk Cousins (QB)
  58. Andrew Luck (QB)
  59. Kelvin Benjamin (WR)
  60. Sammy Watkins (WR)
  61. Adam Thielen (WR)
  62. Demaryius Thomas (WR)
  63. Jamison Crowder (WR)
  64. Cam Newton (QB)

Just missed: Greg Olsen, Tarik Cohen, Jarvis Landry, Allen Robinson, Jordan Reed, Aaron Jones, Jameis Winston, Ty Montgomery, Emmanuel Sanders, Lamar Miller, Alex Collins, Delanie Walker and more.

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Round One Analysis

As of today, November 16th, 2017, I think it’s safe to say that all four of LeVeon Bell, David Johnson, Ezekiel Elliott and Todd Gurley make a strong case for the 1.01 heading into super-early 2018 fantasy football mock drafts. Despite kind of an up-and-down year, one could certainly argue that Antonio Brown still has 1.01 value. And, I agree. Keep in mind, we are still talking redraft and PPR. Johnson (injury) and Elliott (suspension) are harder to trust coming off disappointing 2017 campaigns, so Bell and Gurley, assuming both play strong through Week 16 this season, could feel the safest heading into early mock drafts come January, 2018. In the end, though, when push comes to shove in August 2018, I expect, if healthy, both Johnson and Bell will firmly settle into the 1.01 and 1.02 value. No matter what, there are five amazing options in picks 1-5 in 2018. That’s the real takeaway here.

So, past those five, Odell Beckham, Kareem Hunt, Leonard Fournette, AJ Green and Julio Jones seem to have 1.06 – 1.10 on lock, and aside from the order of those five within that 6-10 overall, it’s a pretty clear-cut top 10 overall heading into 2018 (so far).

From 10 on, that’s where things get interesting and likely very all over the map from one perspective to another. I myself love Melvin Gordon, despite his ups and downs here in 2018. Now, this can change, as it’s only Week 11 as of this write-up. Things can change in either direction, though. As of today, many doubt him, so my guess is his ADP, if we were to calculate it as of this very moment, would be near the 1.10-2.04 range. If he finishes strong in Weeks 11-16, he could easily climb a handful of spots higher. I think Aaron Rodgers needs to be waited on and not take in the top 12 overall (in most formats), but I think his value is in that 10-12 overall range. So, let him fall, but know that value-wise, you’re likely getting a top 10-12 overall value in Rodgers in 2018.

Round Two Analysis

Carson Wentz is one of those players that will climb value boards a ton this coming off-season. Same thing goes for Deshaun Watson… these are the QBs of the future, and frankly, they are already here, so they are kind of the ‘now’ as well – already. I wouldn’t be shocked if this ranking seems high to some for both of these passers, but I bet they settle into this kind of value by April or May of 2018.

Mike Evans has taken a big hit and value this year, as Winston and the Bucs have struggled. He had top 4-8 overall value in PPR dynasty startups back in August, so if he falls even halfway into the 2nd-round next year in drafts, that’s a low-risk/high-reward situation brewing.

Deandre Hopkins is easily a top 1-5WR talent wise, and he is finally back in the elite top 5 performance wise, this coming off a horrible 2016 campaign. Some doubted his return to the elite top 5, but the development of Deshaun Watson has Hopkins’ locked into secure status. A QB makes all the difference in the world, look at Hopkins’ fall from elite last year… look at Mike Evans’ fall this year with QB instability. It’s important, and not many elite WRs have a better passer than Watson!

Michael Thomas could really develop in his next season. He has been steady and awesome through Week 11, but of course more TDs would have been nice through 11 games of the NFL season. He may pull those missing TD grabs in in Weeks 12-17, who knows, but my guess is that all our huge expectations were a touch early in 2017, but that doesn’t mean he won’t reach the heights many of us predicted.

Alvin Kamara, as predicted on our 2017 Bold Predictions, is a rising star. The question is, does he have top 12-14 overall value? Is he slotted in too low in this mock?

Jordan Howard, Devonta Freeman and Lesean Mccoy are all the riskiest players in this round. By far. Injury, age, situation, the risk is real.

Christian Mccaffrey looks like a strong 2nd-round PPR rusher heading into 2018, but his finish will determine a lot.

Round Three Analysis

Round Three Analysis Is Coming…

Patrick Mahomes a stud?

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Week 11 Projections | 2017

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Week 10: Breakouts, Sleepers, Stashes

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