Archive for mock draft 2017

When to Ignore ADP?

smitty fantasy football advice

If you are anything close to being a serious fantasy football owner, you know all about ADP (Average Draft Position) Data, which is essentially compiled mock draft data that suggests where, on average, players are typically getting drafted.

I am a HUGE believer in using ADP Data to your advantage. In fact, I consider it one of the most important aspects of fantasy football… if you don’t use Average Draft Position rankings properly when you have your original draft, or when you factor in trade values, you will never ‘get ahead’ and acquire that impossible-type team. That’s the goal, right? To have a team that others say out loud, “how the heck did he get that team?”

So, now to the fun part..

Question: When should one ignore ADP Data?

Answer: Every situation is uniquely different. There is no for sure answer.

So, taking a current average of current ADPs out there on the Web (as of 4/12/2017), I will identify players I would Significantly Reach For, in a sense ignoring ADPs. I will also speak to the flip side, players I feel are NOT worth their going ADP rank. Note: All other players not identified below should be attained at, or very near, their going ADP rank, or I have no real opinion regarding their current ADP.

ADP Data as of 4/12/2017

4/12/17: This Mock Draft Data was compiled using several 2017 ADPs

#PlayerPosTmComment About ADP
1David JohnsonRBARI Use ADP When Drafting
2Ezekiel ElliottRBDAL Use ADP When Drafting
3LeVeon BellRBPIT Use ADP When Drafting
4Antonio BrownWRPIT Use ADP When Drafting
5Odell Beckham JrWRNYG Use ADP When Drafting
6Julio JonesWRATL Use ADP When Drafting
7LeSean McCoyRBBUFCAUTION: While LeSean McCoy is very capable of being a top 7 overall player in 2017, he is also at that age in his career where he could drop off the face of the earth due to injury. He is turning 29 before the 2017 season begins, he has a long injury history with knees/legs, and he has eight starting seasons in the rear view, which is a TON for an NFL rusher. To put that into perspective, Priest Holmes only had three full starting seasons before he got injured and never returned to form (and only played 5 seasons prior to getting hurt)... Larry Johnson broke down during his fifth NFL seasons, with only two monster starter campaigns... Shaun Alexander, one of the best fantasy running backs ever, was able to only last five seasons as a monster starter in the NFL, as he broke down during his sixth NFL season. McCoy's eight seasons is a grip, and while he could have one more elite year left, my advice is to let someone else take the chance at top 7 overall value! Avoid at ADP value of 5-9 overall!
8Melvin GordonRBSD Use ADP When Drafting
9Mike EvansWRTB Use ADP When Drafting
10Jordan HowardRBCHICAUTION: I like Jordan Howard a lot, however, to be a top 10 overall pick in fantasy football, a player, to me, needs to feel more for sure and have less questions surrounding their QB situation (Mike Glennon) and entire passing game (now without any WR but Cameron Meredith and Kevin White). I'm sorry, but that smells like disappointment from a team standpoint and moving the chains standpoint. I like Howard, and I'd love to own him as a late second-round type talent, but that's not going to happen in any league/draft... I'll pass at anywhere near 8-12 overall ADP!
11A.J. GreenWRCIN Use ADP When Drafting
12DeMarco MurrayRBTENCAUTION: First off, I still like owning both DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry, so if you can own both for sure, I don't mind this ADP value too much. I think there are safer ways to go (and you can still draft just Henry as a secret weapon), but I don't mind this value IF you have the duo. If you do not have the duo, in dynasty or redraft, I think this is dangerous value (top 12) for DeMarco drafters/owners. In redraft, it's madness if you don't absolutely reach for Henry, but at 5.11 ADP, Henry is looking like he will cost a boatload. That's your fifth-drafted player right there. My advice this year, in redraft, is to avoid DeMarco Murray at top 12 overall value... in order to handcuff him to Henry, it's too costly, as you have to reach past 5.11 to ensure you get both, and even 5.11 feels nuts, so reaching even higher to be certain, no thanks... In dynasty, sell-high on DeMarco if possible.
13Jordy NelsonWRGB Use ADP When Drafting
14Jay AjayiRBMIA Use ADP When Drafting
15Devonta FreemanRBATL Use ADP When Drafting
16Todd GurleyRBLASLEEPER ALERT: In redraft or dynasty, Todd Gurley looks to have all risk built into his ADP/trade value. This is his floor, but I consistently see him at the 14-16 overall range. Steal! I reach even up to pick 12 overall and I buy all day! He could struggle if he gets no offensive support, but he can also be the No. 1 overall player in fantasy football again! Buy! Draft!
17Dez BryantWRDAL Use ADP When Drafting
18Michael ThomasWRNOCAUTION: I like Michael Thomas, but wow, this is costly. I'm almost shocked that fantasy owners are willing to draft him ahead of players like DeAndre Hopkins, Amari Cooper, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. I get it, he is in a great spot, but he still has lots of risk, and to make him your second-drafted player in redraft? In dynasty, if I own him, I sell-high, because his dynasty value is easily as high as this. At least. That's a great sell-high opportunity if you ask me, because even if I'm wrong and he does workout and be this good, you're selling high, so you should get something back that will too be awesome, thus you lose nothing by trading him into a likely safer option.
19T.Y. HiltonWRIND Use ADP When Drafting
20Lamar MillerRBHOU Use ADP When Drafting
21Aaron RodgersQBGBSLEEPER ALERT: I always suggest ignoring ADP a little when it comes to the top 1-3QBs, and that doesn't change entering 2017. However, this ADP feels a touch off when compared to what is likely to happen in most drafts.
So, assuming Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Tom Brady all fall to about 25 overall, I am fine with drafting any of the three in the top 25-36... I reach for those big guns, as any one of them can be the number one overall scorer in fantasy.
22Amari CooperWROAKSLEEPER ALERT: Like DeAndre Hopkins below, this is "win a league" type stuff if Amari Cooper becomes what I think he will become. Sure, he busted in 2016, but he is entering his third NFL seasons, sometimes WRs need 2 full played seasons before they explode. Cooper has already shown me flashes of being a top 5WR in fantasy. I am all in. I'm buying low in dynasty at this value and slightly higher, and I have no worries drafting him in redraft at this value, and would reach a few slots if needed.
23Mark IngramRBNO Use ADP When Drafting
24Carlos HydeRBSF Use ADP When Drafting
25Rob GronkowskiTENE Use ADP When Drafting
26DeAndre HopkinsWRHOUSLEEPER ALERT: Whenever you have a player ranking outside of the second-round, meaning you can draft him, or trade for him, at value equal to your third-best player, yet he has top 1-5 potential at his position, that's what you call 'win a league' value. Hopkins may have risk, and he certainly busted last year, at least given his draft value... however, I have zero concerns about his talent or future, he just had a bad situation last year. The risk is his situation does not improve, but that's a risk that is now built into 24-26 overall value. Don't even worry about reaching 5-6 picks above this value for Hopkins, he's easily worth a top 18-22 overall selection on draft day, and I'd easily trade for him at that value in dynasty. Easily!
27CJ AndersonRBDENCAUTION: I don't even understand this ADP. I wouldn't touch CJ even in the next round let alone this 27th overall range. Avoid and do not use ADP.
28Brandin CooksWRNE Use ADP When Drafting
29Allen RobinsonWRJAC Use ADP When Drafting
30Spencer WareRBSEA Use ADP When Drafting
31Davante AdamsWRGB Use ADP When Drafting
32Tom BradyQBNESLEEPER ALERT: See Aaron Rodgers comment above!
33Doug BaldwinWRSEA Use ADP When Drafting
34Latavius MurrayRBMIN Use ADP When Drafting
35Tyreek HillWRKC Use ADP When Drafting
36Keenan AllenWRSD Use ADP When Drafting
37Adrian PetersonRBMIN Use ADP When Drafting
38Alshon JefferyWRPHISLEEPER ALERT: Is Alshon Jeffery an injury risk? Yes, absolutely. Is that built into 38 overall value? Yes, without question. I like this value, as he still has top 7-10WR appeal in my opinion.
39Drew BreesQBNOSLEEPER ALERT: See Aaron Rodgers comment above!
40Sammy WatkinsWRBUF Use ADP When Drafting
44Demaryius ThomasWRDEN Use ADP When Drafting
41LeGarrette BlountRBNE Use ADP When Drafting
42Travis KelceTEKC Use ADP When Drafting
43Tevin ColemanRBATL Use ADP When Drafting
45Eddie LacyRBSEA Use ADP When Drafting
46Thomas RawlsRBSEA Use ADP When Drafting
47Michael CrabtreeWROAK Use ADP When Drafting
48Andrew LuckQBIND Use ADP When Drafting
49Julian EdelmanWRNE Use ADP When Drafting
50Jordan ReedTEWAS Use ADP When Drafting
51Isaiah CrowellRBCLE Use ADP When Drafting
52Jeremy HillRBCIN Use ADP When Drafting
53Greg OlsenTECAR Use ADP When Drafting
54Jarvis LandryWRMIA Use ADP When Drafting
62Derek CarrQBOAK Use ADP When Drafting
55Matt RyanQBATL Use ADP When Drafting
56Doug MartinRBTB Use ADP When Drafting
61Derrick HenryRBTEN Use ADP When Drafting
57Brandon MarshallWRNYG Use ADP When Drafting
58Kelvin BenjaminWRCAR Use ADP When Drafting
59Tyler EifertTECIN Use ADP When Drafting
60Jamaal CharlesRBKC Use ADP When Drafting
63Larry FitzgeraldWRARI Use ADP When Drafting
64Bilal PowellRBNYJ Use ADP When Drafting
65Martavis BryantWRPITSLEEPER ALERT: Reaching about 5-6 picks for Bryant might be worth it in 2017. I get it, he has failed us all thus far, but he is just so talented. If he stays on the field, he could flirt with top 25 overall value. Draft in redraft and buy-low in dynasty if possible!
66Terrelle PryorWRWAS Use ADP When Drafting
67Jimmy GrahamTESEA Use ADP When Drafting
68Frank GoreRBIND Use ADP When Drafting
69Cam NewtonQBCAR Use ADP When Drafting
70Delanie WalkerTETEN Use ADP When Drafting
71Jonathan StewartRBCAR Use ADP When Drafting
72Donte MoncriefWRIND Use ADP When Drafting
73Ty MontgomeryWRGB Use ADP When Drafting
74Dak PrescottQBDAL Use ADP When Drafting
75Kenneth DixonRBBAL Use ADP When Drafting
76Emmanuel SandersWRDEN Use ADP When Drafting
77Russell WilsonQBSEA Use ADP When Drafting
78Matt ForteRBNYJ Use ADP When Drafting
79Hunter HenryTESD Use ADP When Drafting
80Rob KelleyRBWAS Use ADP When Drafting
81Golden TateWRDET Use ADP When Drafting
82Ameer AbdullahRBDET Use ADP When Drafting
83Ben RoethlisbergerQBPIT Use ADP When Drafting
84Rishard MatthewsWRTEN Use ADP When Drafting
85Paul PerkinsRBNYG Use ADP When Drafting
86Dion LewisRBNE Use ADP When Drafting
87Kyle RudolphTEMIN Use ADP When Drafting
88Kirk CousinsQBWAS Use ADP When Drafting
89Jamison CrowderWRWAS Use ADP When Drafting
90CJ ProsiseRBSEA Use ADP When Drafting
91Randall CobbWRGB Use ADP When Drafting
92Giovani BernardRBCIN Use ADP When Drafting
93DeSean JacksonWRTB Use ADP When Drafting
94Danny WoodheadRBBAL Use ADP When Drafting
95Stefon DiggsWRMIN Use ADP When Drafting
96Eric DeckerWRNYJ Use ADP When Drafting
97Kansas City DefenseDEFKC Use ADP When Drafting
98Theo RiddickRBDET Use ADP When Drafting
99Marcus MariotaQBTEN Use ADP When Drafting
100Mike GillisleeRBBUF Use ADP When Drafting
101Cameron BrateTETB Use ADP When Drafting
102Denver DefenseDEFDEN Use ADP When Drafting
103Seattle DefenseDEFSEA Use ADP When Drafting
104Jacquizz RodgersRBCHI Use ADP When Drafting
105Corey ColemanWRCLE Use ADP When Drafting
106Zach ErtzTEPHI Use ADP When Drafting
107Jameis WinstonQBTB Use ADP When Drafting
108Sterling ShepardWRNYG Use ADP When Drafting
109DeVante ParkerWRMIA Use ADP When Drafting
110Jordan MatthewsWRPHI Use ADP When Drafting
111Matthew StaffordQBDET Use ADP When Drafting
112Ryan MathewsRBPHI Use ADP When Drafting
113Houston DefenseDEFHOU Use ADP When Drafting
114Jeremy MaclinWRKC Use ADP When Drafting
115Minnesota DefenseDEFMIN Use ADP When Drafting
116Martellus BennettTEGB Use ADP When Drafting
117Willie SneadWRNO Use ADP When Drafting
118Philip RiversQBSD Use ADP When Drafting
119Chris IvoryRBJAC Use ADP When Drafting
120Eli ManningQBNYG Use ADP When Drafting
121Kevin WhiteWRCHI Use ADP When Drafting
122New England DefenseDEFNE Use ADP When Drafting
123DeAngelo WilliamsRBPIT Use ADP When Drafting
124Arizona DefenseDEFARI Use ADP When Drafting
125Devontae BookerRBDEN Use ADP When Drafting

Early 2017 Fantasy Football Mock Draft

smitty fantasy football advice

Below is our Early 2017 Fantasy Football Mock Draft (Dynasty/PPR), which took place on our fantasy football forums. So, this draft is not my set of 2017 rankings, it is the results from said draft, which has well over a dozen participants taking turns tossing out names. I have, however, added my commentary to each pick. Also, keep in mind, the draft is still on going, so check back for updates on both the draft results and commentary that will be attached to each pick.

Mock Draft 2017 (Dynasty)

Round One

1.01 – Antonio Brown – In a PPR draft, this is still very, very arguable. Although, if I’m drafting, lock me in for one of Zeke Elliott, LeVeon Bell or David Johnson, as the every-down runner is back in the spotlight and having one of those studs gives any team a huge, huge advantage.
1.02 – Ezekiel Elliott – As stated above, having one of the big three rushers gives you a monster advantage, and I draft one of the big three rushers if I hold a top three pick this year (in any draft/format).
1.03 – LeVeon Bell – See above two comments.
1.04 – David Johnson – See above comments.
1.05 – Odell Beckham Jr. – I like this pick, however, I think expecting some missed games and distractions is now a given. Still, that could be 1-2 games, and he can still be the top-scoring player during any given week. He deserves this ranking, but don’t load up on ODB in all your leagues, because he has medium risk to go along with his huge upside.
1.06 – Julio Jones – Safe and steady. This is great value despite getting up there a touch in age.
1.07 – Mike Evans – This may seem high or low to some, it just depends on your league/style. This kid easily has this kind of upside. He comes with some injury risk, but he can earn this value with 1-2 missed games. Easy.
1.08 – Amari Cooper – This is a bit high to some, and I myself would not draft Coop this high. But, I say that only because he should fall well into the middle of the second round in many drafts. I would not reach this high because he does come with some risk, and the value in drafting/owning Coop moving forward into 2017 is in the fact that he is doubted in a major way. If you don’t own him in an existing dynasty league, trade for him at high-end WR2-type value. He can sometimes be had there! Attack! He has big appeal still in my view, and I think people are jumping the gun way, way too fast calling him a bust, or a for sure future disappointment. Some wide receivers just need 2 full years played before they breakout. It’s not always a lock that players explode during their first or second seasons… I think fantasy worlds are spoiled with the quick results given by players like Odell Beckham. I firmly believe in Amari Cooper, and I think an elite WR1 is in the cards this year… that does not mean I would draft him, or value him, higher than I need to, which seems to be well into the 2nd-round. Well into it!
1.09 – Deandre Hopkins – Everything said about Cooper above can kind of be said here. Hopkins still has top 2-5WR upside for the future. Invest/draft a lot lower than that value, because you can, and that is where the value is… however, don’t write this stud off as a top 1-5 WR even. He is that good. He needs a QB, and hopefully he gets one this off-season.
1.10 – AJ Green – Stud. Steady.
1.11 – Jordan Howard – He is capable of this value, sure, but this is a touch risky counting on top 11 overall value. Take a risk in one league, no problem, I support ya; however, do not load up on Howard at this value in every league, as that’s how you let one player destroy all your seasons.
1.12 – Melvin Gordon – For being arguably a top 1-3 overall player for most all of 2016, this is low. I like it. Risk is kinda baked into this value right here, so try to get him in the 8-12 overall range just like this, that feels like amazing value.

Round Two

2.01 – Jay Ajayi – Everything said about Jordan Howard above can be said here. I love both runners, but both have some risk in the 8-13 overall range. At that value, this has to be arguably your best player on your entire roster. That’s a lot to ask. Both runners can be that good, sure, but it’s a lot to ask vs drafting a bit lower and hitting a home run.
2.02 – Rob Gronkowski – Huge injury risk at this point, but this could be solid value.
2.03 – Sammy Watkins – Huge injury risk. I wonder if we ever see Waktins play 16-game seasons.
2.04 – Dez Bryant – Injury will be a concern moving forward for me. I like him a handful of picks, if not more, below this slot.
2.05 – Todd Gurley – Steal of 2017? I think it’s very, very possible. I love this value. I try to grab Gurley as my second-drafted player in as many leagues as I can, or trade for him at this value in existing leagues.
2.06 – Leonard Fournette – I love this value. Some might call this high, but I have Fournette as a future top 5 overall pick.
2.07 – Devonta Freeman – Equal parts risk and reward right here given this is a dynasty mock draft. However, given the options below, the players left at this point, I trust Freeman enough to say he has good upside for first-round like numbers.
2.08 – Michael Thomas – I love the kid, but this is a tad high for me in any format. I think he can easily earn it, but this is your second-best player if this is the kind of value/slot you toss him into. That’s a lot to ask.
2.09 – Allen Robinson – Value him here in just one league, but I support the risk/reward outlook here.
2.10 – Dalvin Cook – Some might feel this is high, but I like the value/risk. Things could change during the NFL Draft, though, no question.
2.11 – TY Hilton – This seems high. Not so much because he cannot earn this value, but because I feel he can be had much lower on average. I don’t love making him my second-drafted player, or second-best player. It feels like the recipe for a thin team.
2.12 – Aaron Rodgers – In dynasty, or any format really, the stud QB is overlooked. However, I say that only if QBs are going early, or somewhat early. If you can land Brady or Brees in the late third- or fourth-round, something you see sometimes, then taking an ARod this early is a missed opportunity when you can have near the same level of QB and still use your 2nd-rounder on a WR or RB. Value wise, ARod can crush this ranking and win a league as a team’s second-best player. Use the likelihood of where players get drafted in your exact league to determine where you draft a QB like Rodgers, don’t let the general fantasy football population force you into a “you always wait to draft a QB” type mentality.

Round Three

3.01 – Tom Brady – Everything said above with Aaron Rodgers can be applied here. And, if you are thinking that Brady won’t be elite much longer, I say 2 years is safe, and 2 years is a long time even in dynasty.
3.02 – Travis Kelce – I love Kelce, but this is quite high.
3.03 – DeMarco Murray – Solid value despite some risk of drop off (given previous workloads, not necessarily age).
3.04 – Corey Davis – Some may think this is way too high, but I believe this rookie WR will be amazing. Landing spot will determine a lot.
3.05 – LeSean McCoy – Strong value for a guy still playing elite football, and we’re talking top 5-10RB numbers. How many years will he continue to play like a top 10RB? I’d say 1-2 years is a safe bet, and that makes him worth a high first-rounder.
3.06 – Brandin Cooks – What happens if Drew Brees breaks down? Until then, though, Cooks feels very worthy of this selection, it just has a touch of risk given he is a third-drafted player on someone’s team at this slot.
3.07 – Lamar Miller – The talent is there, he could explode from this value. Then again, he needs a passing game. This is a solid slot for him, though. The risk is still kinda present here at 3.07, but he still has monster upside here.
3.08 – Jordy Nelson – He is older, sure, but still elite for 1-2 more years? That’s still a long time in dynasty.
3.09 – Andrew Luck – This is solid value, he can be top 5-10 overall points wise during any given season.
3.10 – Jarvis Landry – I stand by this kid being elite, and I think top 5-10WR elite… he just needs a passing game, and the risk that he doesn’t get one, at least a consistent one, is why he ranks about here. Don’t reach, there is risk, but near as much appeal.

3.08 – On The Clock (stay tuned for updates)…