Archive for fantasy football rookies

Rookie: Corey Davis Fantasy Outlook

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Now that Corey Davis, the 5th overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft, is now a Tennessee Titan, where do we rank him heading into 2017 and beyond? Is he going to eventually be a top 5-10 overall dynasty fantasy football player? Is his future still bright? How will he do in 2017 as a rookie? Find out Smitty’s thoughts below!

Rookie: Leonard Fournette Fantasy Outlook

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Now that Leonard Fournette, the 4th overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft, is now a Jaguar, where do we rank him heading into 2017 and beyond? Is he still a top 5-10 overall dynasty fantasy football prospect? Is his future still bright? How will he do in 2017 as a rookie? Find out Smitty’s thoughts below!

2016 Rookie Analysis (in May)

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Let’s be honest, you can’t rank and rerank the fantasy football rookies enough in the months of January through July. ADP Data changes by the week, sometimes by the day, and our own personal evaluations change extremely fast just by watching tape and reading current news. So, with that said, it’s time to start from scratch and rank/analyze this 2016 Fantasy Football Rookie NFL Draft Class. Enjoy.

Elite Potential

1. Ezekiel Elliott (RB) DAL

He is the consensus 1.01 in any format. If you aren’t drafting him at the 1.01, let’s say due to team need, you’re making a HUGE mistake. He is the 1.01, conversation over. If you really feel you want to roll with a wide receiver, or another rusher, trade down and get a ton, because you will get a ton. Dallas is the perfect landing spot for Zeke, as he will now run behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, and he has one of the best wide receivers on the outside (Dez Bryant) keeping defenses honest. Granted, a truly elite rookie season might require a relatively healthy Tony Romo, but even if injury strikes a touch at the QB position, even Dez Bryant owners now have a sense of production protection built into the situation, as Zeke will help that offense stay relatively balanced should it be without Romo for an extended period of time. All that said, Zeke owners need Romo in the lineup for truly elite numbers this upcoming season. If Romo stays relatively healthy all year, expect elite fantasy RB1-type numbers out of this on-the-rise rookie rusher.

2. Kenneth Dixon (RB) BAL

Here is the deal, folks. No player in this 2016 NFL Draft Class even sniffs Elliott’s talent level, except Kenneth Dixon. Who would I rather have on my team if I was a coach? Elliott, no question. That said, the only reason this draft class is completely flat after the 1.01 is because not one rusher, other than Elliott, was drafted as the uncontested starter for his team. If Dixon had landed in Dallas and Elliott still went somewhere solid, like Miami, you’d have two-man tier in Elliott and Dixon, and even though Zeke would still be the consensus 1.01 in all formats, Dixon would at least command some consideration. That’s how good he is. He is a beast and his talent jumps out on tape. I mean JUMPS out! Watch below and see for yourself. Now, he is in a decent scenario, with only Buck Allen and Justin Forsett ahead of him, so don’t sleep on him as the second-best player in this 2016 NFL Draft class. Should you take him at 1.02? No, not necessarily. Use current ADP data all the way up until your league’s rookie-only draft kicks off. Here is a fresh look at Rookie-only ADP Data, where he currently sits at 1.05-1.06. Not to confuse matters with what I just said about ADP Data, but I will say this… this class is so iffy from 1.02 on down, I wouldn’t blame anyone for drafting Dixon at 1.02 just to ensure that they got Dixon.. I’ve considered it and will continue to consider it heading into a draft where I hold the 1.02. Sometimes it’s worth getting your guy, especially when the risk is low, and given this class is kind of flat, the risk is low spending a 1.02 on anyone you feel has the tools to be not just great, but elite. If starting, Dixon could absolutely be elite.

Potential Fantasy WR1 Upside

3. Laquon Treadwell (WR) MIN

I’m changing my tune a bit on this kid. I have watched a lot of game footage this week and I am going to speculate that he puts my concerns to ease as he matures. My concern is lack of speed. That said, he is still young, and given his ability to go up and get a ball, and given the fight in many of his big plays after the catch, I think this kid will work hard and get quicker. Anquan Boldin, along with many other strong fantasy football wide receivers, have proven that speed isn’t a requirement for becoming elite. It’s definitely a red flag that needs to be considered at the rookie evaluation stage, sure, but the more film I watch on this receiver, the more I like him. I am not sure if he will ever be a top 5WR in fantasy, but he has enough talent in every non-speed category that he has a shot at eventually being a fantasy WR1.

4. Corey Coleman (WR) CLE

I like Corey Coleman a lot. One reason is because he is in a good situation to be his team’s No. 1 wide receiver right out of the gate. If he isn’t, well, that means that Josh Gordon is back and I will be plenty happy with that news. Even if that happens, though, Gordon’s long-term future with the Browns, and NFL, is cloudy at best, so honestly, Coleman could be the WR1 in Cleveland for a decade, and it might take him 1-2 years to get settled anyway. Could he fail in fantasy? Sure. Might he not get enough targets? Sure. That said, with RG3 potentially setup to rebound in 2016, and with Josh McCown capable if need be, I think Coleman has a really productive rookie season and a bright future. I had Coleman as my No. 1 wide receiver coming out of this draft class until recently, which I address above under Treadwell.

5. Josh Doctson (WR) WAS

I like his situation a ton in Washington, and that alone gives him an edge. Both Corey Coleman and Laquon Treadwell are in good situations in terms of being their team’s No. 1 wide receiver, but Doctson has the passer that has top 4-7 fantasy upside, which typically spells more targets. As weak as this rookie wide receiver class is, all three of Coleman, Treadwell and Doctson have the potential to be low-end fantasy WR1s. I don’t think all of them will be, much depends on how each matures. Good luck ranking these three receivers, it’s tough given all the variables.

Potential RB2 or WR2 Upside or low-end QB1s

6. Devontae Booker (RB) DEN

He enters as the team’s backup, so don’t go drafting him above the players you see ranked above. However, don’t be shy about making him your 1.07-1.09 rookie-only draft selection on draft day. Most will take Henry above him, and you might want to consider that as well if given the choice. But, I rank Booker here because I think he has more ceiling. More risk, but more ceiling potential. He has a big obstacle in his way, though, and his name is CJ Anderson.

7. Derrick Henry (RB) TEN

He landed in an awful situation. Awful. The Titans went after DeMarco Murray in the off-season, and they acquired him to be the workhorse. Will the team play smash mouth football using Henry 8-10 times up the middle? Absolutely, and he will be fun to watch in those situation. Like every rusher, Murray will need a break, and that’s all this is, unless Murray gets hurt. Then I think Henry plays very well, but for how long? A season? Murray, even if hurt badly, would return to start. And, if he didn’t, I honestly can’t see Henry holding up if being given a full-time workload for anything more than 1-2 seasons. Think Brandon Jacobs, but bigger. I have been wrong about players before, so trust your gut if he is your guy, but just curb expectations a bit, as he has a potential top 5-10 fantasy rusher ahead of him, and size that usually will not translate into an every-down rusher at that NFL level.

8. Paul Perkins (RB) NYG

Sleeper Alert, folks! The Giants don’t exactly have a future stud at the position, as Rashad Jennings is not the long-term answer, and either is the dynamic third-down runner in Shane Vereen. Perkins will eventually get his shot, and if he excels, this could be that late first-round grab that turns into an unexpected gem. Don’t overpay on draft day, know your ADP data! But, don’t be shy about getting your guy either… once you get near the 1.06, just grab the players you want, don’t let ADP influence you too much, but we’re talking after that 1.06 range.

9-11. Carson Wentz (QB), Jared Goff (QB), Paxton Lynch (QB)

All three have low-end fantasy QB1 appeal, but all have risk. For more on these passers, read here.

Deeper Sleepers

12. Keith Marshall (RB) WAS

I really like Keith Marshall as a boom or bust RB pick. If given a shot, he could thrive. I mean really thrive! Don’t overpay, as you don’t need to. His resume in college is super short, so the odds are kind of stacked against him, but clearly Washington sees something. I hope they let him loose at some point, he is dynamic and fast!!!

13-14. Cj Prosise (RB) SEA / Alex Collins (RB) SEA

Both backs won’t be given an easy path to the lineup, as Thomas Rawls will get his shot, and he looked impressive last year. He did get hurt, so he has to prove he can stay healthy in 2016. If he does, it’s his job to lose. UPDATE: With CJ Prosise taking wide receiver reps in practice as of 5/9/16, and with all the recent coach praise, he looks like the sleeper to own in this backfield.

15. Jordan Howard (RB) CHI

He has a big obstacle in front of him in Jeremy Langford, but Langford is no lock to excel. So, by default, Howard has very relevant fantasy sleeper appeal!

16. Michael Thomas (WR) NO

With Drew Brees tossing him the rock, what’s not to like from a sleeper perspective?

17. Pharoh Cooper (WR) LA

Someone has to emerge as the Rams’ top wide receiver of the future. I like this receiver as a late gem!

The Rest

Sterling Shepard (WR)
Tyler Boyd (WR)
Will Fuller (WR)
Leonte Carroo (WR)
Wendell Smallwood (RB)
Daniel Lasco (RB)
Jonathan Williams (RB)
Braxton Miller (WR)
Malcolm Mitchell (WR)
Kenyan Drake (RB)
Christian Hackenberg (QB)
Deandre Washington (RB)
Hunter Henry (TE)
Austin Hooper (TE)

More Rookie Rankings

2016 Live NFL Draft Fantasy Analysis

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Below you will find Fantasy Football Analysis on the 2016 NFL Draft (as the 2016 NFL Draft unfolds). The draft results/draft tracker is also mixed in below. Enjoy all of the fantasy football takes we’ve attached, and be sure to comment below!

(Write-ups in order of being selected)

Round One

1.01 – Rams: Jared Goff | QB CAL

Jared Goff is 6-4, he is good in the pocket, has good feet, and he has been highly-ranked amongst this 2016 draft class for a while, unlike Wentz. I am not quite sure that Goff has top 5QB upside in fantasy, but I won’t rule out 5-10 ability in time. If the Rams force him onto the field too early, it could turn out badly for the passer. No QB in this draft is absolutely ready to start at that next level, but he has solid upside.

1.02 – Eagles: Carson Wentz | QB North Dakota St.

Carson Wentz wasn’t ranked inside the top two overall all off-season, he has been kinda a quick riser on draft boards heading into April. He is tall at 6-5, he weighs 237 pounds, he has a good arm, he can run, and he is accurate. The size and talent is there, climbing draft boards late, unlike Jared Goff, doesn’t concern me… the offense he walks into is pretty solid and it has nice weapons in Jordan Matthews and Zach Ertz. Despite the quick rising on draft boards, I think Wentz has as good shot as Goff at becoming a top 5-10 fantasy QB. He also has cold weather experience, although he played in a dome, which isn’t quite Philly cold. But, at least he has cold weather experience. I like his future, but as I said above, no QB in this class feels totally 2016-ready.

3 – Chargers: Joey Bosa DE Ohio St.

1.04 – Cowboys: Ezekiel Elliott | RB Ohio State

What a great landing spot for Ezekiel Elliott. It’s also a fantastic spot for those fantasy owners planning to own the soon-to-be fantasy stud. The offensive line in Dallas is ideal, and this runner can play on all four downs. He could be the next Emmitt Smith (minus the longevity), so it’s kind of fitting he lands in Dallas. This landing spot could have him finishing inside the top 5-10 for fantasy football running backs in 2016 (and of course beyond). He should be locked into the 1.01 rookie-only draft selection in any draft, and in dynasty, he should be valued near a top 10-12 overall player (yes, already!). He’s a great character guy as well. Get ready for huge 2016 numbers!

5 – Jaguars: Jalen Ramsey CB Florida St.
6 – Ravens: Ronnie Stanley OT Notre Dame
7 – 49ers: DeForest Buckner DE Oregon
8 – Titans: Jack Conklin OT Michigan St.
9 – Bears: Leonard Floyd OLB Georgia
10 – Giants: Eli Apple CB Ohio St.
11 – Bucs: Vernon Hargreaves III CB Florida
12 – Saints: Sheldon Rankins DE Louisville
13 – Dolphins: Laremy Tunsil OT Ole Miss
14 – Raiders: Karl Joseph S West Virginia

1.15 – Browns: Corey Coleman | WR Baylor

Corey Coleman is fast, however, he is a bit raw to be in a situation where there isn’t a ton of stability at both wide receiver and quarterback. He has a 40.5-inch vertical, but is not a great route runner, but he is great at going and getting a football. He needs to work on his route running and he needs the Browns to surprise at a few positions in order for him to be able to develop quickly.

16 – Lions: Taylor Decker OT Ohio St.
17 – Falcons: Keanu Neal S Florida
18 – Colts: Ryan Kelly C Alabama
19 – Bills: Shaq Lawson DE Clemson
20 – Jets: Darron Lee OLB Ohio St.

1.21 – Texans: Will Fuller | WR Notre Dame

Will Fuller struggles with drops, but he is a big-play receiver that is a true deep threat with his 4.32 forty speed. He finds the end zone very, very well, and plugging him into an offense where defenses are going to be ultra-focused on doubling DeAndre Hopkins is a recipe for success for Fuller. To be honest, I would have loved to see Doctson or Treadwell here instead, but that’s just speaking from a football perspective. In the end, since both Doctson and Treadwell will likely be better fantasy football prospects, it’s better they go to a team where they have a shot at being their team’s No. 1 wide receiver. So, in summary, it’s tough to say if Fuller will ever be a huge fantasy player, but his presence helps Hopkins a lot in 2016 (and beyond).

1.22 – Redskins: Josh Doctson | WR TCU

This was great value, as Josh Doctson is arguably the best wide receiver in this 2016 NFL Draft Class. He has a 41-inch vertical, which is the best in this draft, and he averaged 16.8 yards-per-catch last season. At 6-2, 202 pounds, he can go up and get a football as good, if not better, than any wide receiver in this draft class, and he has a real opportunity in Washington, as he and Kirk Cousins can develop together.

1.23 – Vikings: Laquon Treadwell | WR Ole Miss

Can become the WR1 in Minnesota, no question. He is actually a great fit for Teddy Bridgewater and his style, but will Treadwell ever see enough balls to be a fantasy WR1? Tough to say. He isn’t super fast, as his combine time knocked him down to 1.23… he was once considered a top 5 overall pick in this draft, so this is quite a fall due to speed concerns. Keep in mind that Terrell Owens and Anquan Boldin ran slow forty times and became elite receivers in the NFL. However, a slow time is a concern, and if you run slow, you have to run premium routes like Anquan Boldin and catch footballs like Anquan Boldin to be elite. I think Treadwell can, and this is a good spot for him to develop in. His college leg injury is another concern, but he is a young guy, he should be fine.

24 – Bengals: William Jackson III CB Houston
25 – Steelers: Artie Burns CB Miami

1.26 – Broncos: Paxton Lynch | QB Memphis

This was a smart trade up by Denver, as Paxton Lynch has near as much upside, if not as much, as either of the two QBs that just went at 1.01 and 1.02 (Wentz and Goff). Denver now has their future passer. He has great size 6-7 and he is 244 pounds. He can run, he has good feet given his size. This is amazing news for Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders owners from a dynasty perspective, because Lynch feels solid. Just know that he could take a year or so to get into the offense. And, even if he is forced to start at some point this upcoming season, he could take a year or two to produce consistently. He is not extremely NFL ready and not quite ready to command that Denver offense.

27 – Packers: Kenny Clark DT UCLA
28 – 49ers: Joshua Garnett G Stanford
30 – Cardinals: Robert Nkemdiche DT Ole Miss
31 – Panthers: Vernon Butler DT Louisiana Tech
32 – Seahawks: Germain Ifedi OT Texas A&M

Round Two

1(32) Browns – Ogbah, Emmanuel DE
2(33) Titans – Dodd, Kevin DE
3(34) Cowboys – Smith, Jaylon OLB

4(35) Chargers – Henry, Hunter TE

Solid situation for a relatively decent talent.

5(36) Jaguars (From Ravens) – Jack, Myles OLB
6(37) Chiefs (From 49ers) – Jones, Chris DT
7(38) Dolphins (From Ravens through Jaguars) – Howard, Xavien CB
8(39) Buccaneers – Spence, Noah DE

9(40) Giants – Shepard, Sterling WR

I don’t see elite here, but time will tell.

10(41) Bills (From Bears) – Ragland, Reggie ILB
11(42) Ravens (From Dolphins) – Correa, Kamalei DE
12(43) Titans (From Eagles through Rams) – Johnson, Austin NT
13(44) Raiders – Ward, Jihad DE

14(45) Titans (From Rams) – Henry, Derrick RB

This is an awful spot for the big guy, at least for 2016 and maybe a year (or two) after that. DeMarco Murray is the starter, and my guess is that Henry would have a very, very short career if ever given 10+ carries per game on a consistent basis. The guy has time to change my mind before Week 1, but I see this draft selection as a buy-low opportunity for those wanting to take a chance on DeMarco Murray.

15(46) Lions – Robinson, A’Shawn DT

16(47) Saints – Thomas, Michael WR

Solid situation, at least for the next couple of years.

17(48) Packers (From Colts) – Spriggs, Jason T
18(49) Seahawks (From Bears through Bills) – Reed, Jarran DT
19(50) Texans (From Falcons) – Martin, Nick OG

20(51) Jets – Hackenberg, Christian QB

Decent situation, but he is by no means a lock to ever be a top 12 fantasy QB.

21(52) Falcons (From Texans) – Jones, Deion OLB
22(53) Redskins – Cravens, Su’a OLB
23(54) Vikings – Alexander, Mackensie CB

24(55) Bengals – Boyd, Tyler WR

I don’t see elite in this kid, not yet. Things can change and players can grow a lot in the pros. Time will tell.

25(56) Bears (From Seahawks) – Whitehair, Cody OG
26(57) Colts (From Packers) – Green, T.J. FS
27(58) Steelers – Davis, Sean CB
28(59) Buccaneers (From Chiefs) – Aguayo, Roberto K
29(60) Patriots – Jones, Cyrus CB
30(61) Saints (From Patriots through Cardinals) – Bell, Vonn FS
31(62) Panthers – Bradberry, James CB
32(63) Broncos – Gotsis, Adam DT

View Rounds 3-7 Here

Live NFL Draft Results Tracker

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Below you will find the 2016 NFL Draft Results (Draft Tracker). We will post each selection as the 2016 NFL Draft unfolds. Fantasy football commentary will be posted to the right side of the draft tracker big board.

2016 NFL Draft Tracker (Results)

Updated: 4/28/2016

1 – Los Angeles Rams: Jared Goff QB CAL
2 – Philadelphia Eagles: Carson Wentz QB North Dakota St.
3 – San Diego Chargers: Joey Bosa DE Ohio St.
4 – Dallas Cowboys: Ezekiel Elliott RB Ohio St.
5 – Jacksonville Jaguars: Jalen Ramsey CB Florida St.
6 – Baltimore Ravens: Ronnie Stanley OT Notre Dame
7 – San Francisco 49ers: DeForest Buckner DE Oregon
8 – Tennessee Titans: Jack Conklin OT Michigan St.
9 – Chicago Bears: Leonard Floyd OLB Georgia
10 – New York Giants: Eli Apple CB Ohio St.
11 – Tampa Bay Bucs: Vernon Hargreaves III CB Florida
12 – New Orleans Saints: Sheldon Rankins DE Louisville
13 – Miami Dolphins: Laremy Tunsil OT Ole Miss
14 – Oakland Raiders: Karl Joseph S West Virginia
15 – Cleveland Browns: Corey Coleman WR Baylor
16 – Detroit Lions: Taylor Decker OT Ohio St.
17 – Atlanta Falcons: Keanu Neal S Florida
18 – Indianapolis Colts: Ryan Kelly C Alabama
19 – Buffalo Bills: Shaq Lawson DE Clemson
20 – New York Jets: Darron Lee OLB Ohio St.
21 – Houston Texans: Will Fuller WR Notre Dame
22 – Washington Redskins: Josh Doctson WR TCU
23 – Minnesota Vikings: Laquon Treadwell WR Ole Miss
24 – Cincinnati Bengals: William Jackson III CB Houston
25 – Pittsburgh Steelers: Artie Burns CB Miami
26 – Denver Broncos: Paxton Lynch QB Memphis
27 – Green Bay Packers: Kenny Clark DT UCLA
28 – San Francisco 49ers: Joshua Garnett G Stanford
30 – Arizona Cardinals: Robert Nkemdiche DT Ole Miss
31 – Carolina Panthers: Vernon Butler DT Louisiana Tech
32 – Seattle Seahawks: Germain Ifedi OT Texas A&M

Fantasy Football Impact Commentary

[Smitty]:
Date/Time: Apr 28 @1:52am
Almost time, getting pumped to see where Zeke Elliot, Henry and my boy Kenneth Dixon land!


[Smitty]:
Date/Time: Apr 28 @2:01am
If anyone has any first-round trade predictions, leave those in the comments below!!!


[Smitty]:
Date/Time: Apr 28 @1:07pm
I am hearing a lot of Zeke Elliott to Dallas. I know many started moving away from that in the prediction business, but ultimately I think Dallas picks Elliott.


[Smitty]:
Date/Time: Apr 28 @8:20pm
I like the Wentz pick more than the Goff. I think Wentz steps into a better situation as far as WRs/catchers. Either way, I don’t see a for sure top 5 fantasy QB in this draft, but anything is possible.


[Smitty]:
Date/Time: Apr 28 @8:35pm
Does Dallas take Zeke Elliott here?


[Smitty]:
Date/Time: Apr 28 @8:45pm
We were hearing DAL all morning, and I love this spot. Say hello to top 5-10 fantasy RB numbers as a rookie!


[Smitty]:
Date/Time: Apr 28 @11:14pm
For entire first-round Fantasy Analysis on Ezekiel Elliott, Paxton Lynch, Will Fuller, Josh Doctson, Laquon Treadwell, and more, read our fantasy analysis here.