Below we have our Week 10 Buy-Low/Sell-High candidates heading into Week 10 of the 2016 fantasy football season. Take a listen to Smitty and Russ talk specifically about: Ben Roethlisberger, Devonta Freeman, Todd Gurley, Spencer Ware Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Dez Bryant, Brandin Cooks
I was a big supporter of Jamaal Charles’ value entering the off-season, and I’m talking back in January. His ADP wasn’t near the 2nd-round in early redraft thinking, and just after his injury last season, he was being tossed around like dynasty trash in existing leagues. So, because value was good back last season (as he was hurt), he was a player I tried to acquire on the cheap. Naturally, as time passes and injured players get healthy, value increase… this is exactly the case with Jamaal, as his ADP has finally climbed almost too high to that 2.01-2.03 range (redraft). At 29, turning 30 this December, and with a history of serious knee injuries, my advice is to pass on Charles in redraft if you are looking at having to pay anything close top middle- to second-round value. That’s a Dez Bryant, Devonta Freeman, Allen Robinson… Don’t sell-low if you already own him in any format, but because it’s still July, anyone that already owns him is most likely in a dynasty or keeper format… so, don’t sell cheap, you probably won’t get enough to make selling him worth it. And, if you bought low back when his value was dirt cheap (dynasty), well, then the risk/reward is still solid in your case… but, drafting him high moving forward (redraft or dynasty), or trading for him high in any format, is not advised.
I know what some of you might be thinking… “Smitty, you have this guy on the Bold Predictions list, how can you now have him as a potential bust?” Well, the answer is simple. Values change. Lacy is still looking like a solid reward vs. risk investment for those that invested low (months ago); however, in the last month or so, the guy has seen a crazy climb in value. His ADP currently sits at 2.05-2.06 (redraft), which is around players like Allen Robinson, Devonta Freeman (steal!), Amari Cooper and Mike Evans. While Lacy is certainly capable of playing at that level, things have to go perfect… those players I just mentioned, from A-Rob down to Evans, are just much safer options if you ask me. I honestly loved Lacy back in February, as his ADP was still lingering in the 4th-round (and that’s when he cracked the Bold Predictions). It’s just a different situation now and I don’t touch him in the 2nd-round — I let someone else take that risk!
Again, you might be asking why this guy is considered a potential bust candidate when he sits on the Bold Predictions list (and he does still sit on there!)… Again, as stated above, everything boils down to value, and at current ADP value (3.04), the risk is too high. It once was not, and I’m talking back last year when he cracked our Bold Predictions. Back then, he was barely a flex-type player in terms of value. Back then, the risk was so low, the acquisition, if you were lucky enough to strike during that timeframe, was pure home run/low-risk. Given the injury concerns and the three very talented back-ups (C.J. Prosise, Christine Michael, Alex Collins) that sit behind him, I say pass on drafting Rawls anywhere near his 3.03 ADP (redraft). Again, I loved him in the low-risk zone, but this is not low-risk. Sell-high if you own him in dynasty (or redraft, if for whatever reason you drafted early). If healthy and starting, make no mistake about it, I see HUGE numbers for Rawls; but, always buy/draft on the low before the upside gets absorbed up, and for new buyers, it’s absorbed up!
(4.01 ADP) – Rookie DeAndre Washington (12th-round ADP in redraft) could be starting and be a hidden gem in hindsight. Grab the rookie only in 2016 and wait!
(5.04 ADP) – Rookie Wendell Smallwood (13th-round ADP in redraft) is the player to grab and stash!
(5.05 ADP) – I don’t trust the guy to stay healthy, not at 5th-round ADP (redraft).
Ok, folks, SleeperU content is about to get crazy. Ready for the 2016 fantasy football season already? Our 2016 content is about to drop already, and you can soon purchase your 2016 Subscription at a discount and get to crackin’ on next year! While we wait for all that to drop, here is yet more FREE content for 2015.
With Matt Forte and LeSean McCoy banged up (and of course runners like Jamaal Charles and LeVeon Bell out for the season), who is the 4th-best fantasy rusher in football right now and moving forward (for 2015)?
First, let’s make it clear who the top three rushers are…
Top 3 Fantasy Runners
1. Todd Gurley
2. Devonta Freeman
3. Adrian Peterson
The order of these three is debatable, and some might STILL doubt Devonta Freeman as an elite back (I am not one of those people), but this three is pretty much the consensus top three rushers in fantasy football right now (for Weeks 10-16). I think once/if Matt Forte returns, he commands consideration for the 4th spot, as does LeSean McCoy if he proves healthy this week and proves that Karlos Williams isn’t locked into more than 25-30% of the carries over in Buffalo. Past those two, I say DeAngelo Williams needs to be mentioned, as he has posted these three lines in his only three starts this season:
Week 1: 127 rushing yards, 1 reception for 5 yards
Week 2: 77 rushing yards, 3TDs, 4 receptions for 15 yards
Week 9: 170 rushing yards, 2TDs, 2 receptions for 55 yards
… those are some serious lines, and while D-Will is an older back prone to injury, keep in mind he is fresh and will essentially be playing only a touch over half a season. He could absolutely hold up and stay relatively healthy. These are the most valuable runners heading into Weeks 10-16, Gurely, Freeman, Peterson, Williams, and then Matt Forte and LeSean McCoy when proven healthy.
It’s Week 7 and it’s time to do another dynasty mock draft for next year. Below is a 2016 Dynasty Fantasy Football Mock Draft.
This is based on a PPR format, and again, it’s dynasty, but also in a looking-forward fashion, meaning the future matters more than anything, but some drafters took Weeks 7-16 (2015) into account as well. Rounds 1 and 2, and part of 3, took place on our forums, so keep that in mind as I write this up, this was not my ranking.
Thanks to all who participated in this mock draft!
1.01 – LeVeon Bell
1.02 – Julio Jones
1.03 – Antonio Brown
1.04 – Odell Beckham Jr.
1.05 – Todd Gurley
1.06 – Rob Gronkowski
1.07 – Dez Bryant
1.08 – Andrew Luck
1.09 – AJ Green
1.10 – Eddie Lacy
1.11 – Amari Cooper
1.12 – Aaron Rodgers
Smitty’s Take: I really love the top 10 heading into next year, and I think we have a super-strong 12ish moving forward for Weeks 7-16. While I would personally have DeAndre Hopkins in the top 5-10 overall, keep in mind that this mock draft began on Saturday the 17th, so it was before DeAndre Hopkins had yet another phenomenal outing. My guess is that he would be inside the top 5-10 overall if we had waited two days to begin the mock. This is actually a good thing, as it points out how influential one single week is, even when talking about a player like Hopkins who was already climbing high in value. So, placing Hopkins inside the top 5-10 overall, then pulling up Devonta Freeman into the top 8-12 overall, and maybe knocking Amari Cooper down about 4-5 picks, I love this top 12 overall as is. I think this group of mock drafters did a great job mocking this up. I think both DeMarco Murray and LeSean McCoy command some consideration in the 10-14 overall range. My personal top 20 dynasty players, as of today, are:
1. LeVeon Bell, 2. Julio Jones, 3. Todd Gurley, 4. Antonio Brown, 5. Odell Beckham Jr., 6. Rob Gronkowski, 7. Dez Bryant, 8. DeAndre Hopkins, 9. Aaron Rodgers, 10. Andrew Luck, 11. AJ Green, 12. Devonta Freeman, 13. Eddie Lacy, 14. Amari Cooper, 15. Demaryius Thomas, 16. LeSean McCoy, 17. DeMarco Murray, 18. Melvin Gordon, 19. Carlos Hyde, 20. Josh Gordon
My guess is No. 20, Josh Gordon, is a surprise, but note that that could become the norm in 4-5 short months, or he could fall out of fantasy relevance all together. He is a risky player, but someone to keep on your trade radar right now!
2.01 – Devonta Freeman
2.02 – DeAndre Hopkins
2.03 – Demaryius Thomas
2.04 – Melvin Gordon
2.05 – Carlos Hyde
2.06 – Keenan Allen
2.07 – LeSean McCoy
2.08 – Randall Cobb
2.09 – DeMarco Murray
2.10 – Alshon Jeffery
2.11 – Allen Robinson
2.12 – Jordan Matthews
Smitty’s Take: As I said above, DeAndre Hopkins was ranked a bit low in this mock, but this mock draft began the day before Week 6 kicked off — He is pretty much a consensus, top 5-7 overall pick in all dynasty formats. Also, as said above, DeMarco Murray deserves some top 10-14 overall consideration. The rest of this round is loaded with players on the rise, players currently on the decline, and/or coming back from injury as we speak. I’m pretty sure we will see some huge value changes in players like LeSean McCoy, Carlos Hyde, Alshon Jeffery and Melvin Gordon as we close out the remainder of the 2015 fantasy football season.
3.01 – Mike Evans
3.02 – TY Hilton
…this is where the mock ended on the forums, however, I have added the remainder of the third round via a combination of rankings, personal preference and current stats.
3.03 – Adrian Peterson
3.04 – Calvin Johnson
3.05 – Matt Forte
3.06 – Jarvis Landry
3.07 – Doug Martin
3.08 – Emmanuel Sanders
3.09 – Lamar Miller
3.10 – Chris Ivory
3.11 – Marshawn Lynch
3.12 – Latavius Murray
Others: Josh Gordon, Brandon Marshall, Jeremy Hill, Travis Kelce, Tyler Eifert, TJ Yeldon, Arian Foster, Tom Brady, Giovani Bernard, Drew Brees, Greg Olsen, Justin Forsett, and many more.
Smitty’s Take: I think Adrian Peterson has at least one more elite year left, so he remains a nice bargain in dynasty, especially if you make two excellent ‘future’ type picks in rounds 1-2. Players like Calvin Johnson, Marshawn Lynch and Matt Forte will either make or break seasons in 2016, as they are falling so low, but that’s why they are falling into the third-round, because of the risk. Will we see Josh Gordon climb into the high third-round, or higher, as we near 2016? I think so! I think many are not considering the possibilities right now, and that’s normal, but it’s a good time to point this out and recommend some trade attempts! Will Chris Ivory rise or climb from his 3.10 spot? Will Latavius Murray rebound down the stretch in 2015? Will Doug Martin maintain his value that he is building on as we speak? Time will tell! Great mock, everyone!
Most fantasy football seasons, a player, often a running back, emerges and reaches top 1-5RB heights… yet, it’s a common reaction to doubt that player’s rise well into the fantasy football season. Well, for those still doubting the rise of Devonta Freeman, it’s time to accept that he is a top 1-3 fantasy running back moving forward (redraft). Freeman is no stranger to being ranked high on my rankings, as he was on last year’s Top 10 Bold Predictions. Now, he failed to deliver last year, clearly, but the talent has been there the entire time, he just needed the chance.
Moving forward in Weeks 6-17, these are my top three fantasy football running backs (redraft):
…Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte, Eddie Lacy, all three make a good argument to be in the top 2-5 RBs moving forward (Bell is cemented in the 1.01 in all formats for me). And, if we’re talking dynasty, I slot Bell no. 1, as I just mentioned, and Gurley no. 2… Freeman is currently the best candidate for the third spot, though. Disagree? Argue against it below in the comments!
If you know a Devonta Freeman doubter, send him the image above!