If you are anything close to being a serious fantasy football owner, you know all about ADP (Average Draft Position) Data, which is essentially compiled mock draft data that suggests where, on average, players are typically getting drafted.
I am a HUGE believer in using ADP Data to your advantage. In fact, I consider it one of the most important aspects of fantasy football… if you don’t use Average Draft Position rankings properly when you have your original draft, or when you factor in trade values, you will never ‘get ahead’ and acquire that impossible-type team. That’s the goal, right? To have a team that others say out loud, “how the heck did he get that team?”
So, now to the fun part..
So, taking a current average of current ADPs out there on the Web (as of 4/12/2017), I will identify players I would Significantly Reach For, in a sense ignoring ADPs. I will also speak to the flip side, players I feel are NOT worth their going ADP rank. Note: All other players not identified below should be attained at, or very near, their going ADP rank, or I have no real opinion regarding their current ADP.
4/12/17: This Mock Draft Data was compiled using several 2017 ADPs
|#||Player||Pos||Tm||Comment About ADP|
|1||David Johnson||RB||ARI||Use ADP When Drafting|
|2||Ezekiel Elliott||RB||DAL||Use ADP When Drafting|
|3||LeVeon Bell||RB||PIT||Use ADP When Drafting|
|4||Antonio Brown||WR||PIT||Use ADP When Drafting|
|5||Odell Beckham Jr||WR||NYG||Use ADP When Drafting|
|6||Julio Jones||WR||ATL||Use ADP When Drafting|
|7||LeSean McCoy||RB||BUF||CAUTION: While LeSean McCoy is very capable of being a top 7 overall player in 2017, he is also at that age in his career where he could drop off the face of the earth due to injury. He is turning 29 before the 2017 season begins, he has a long injury history with knees/legs, and he has eight starting seasons in the rear view, which is a TON for an NFL rusher. To put that into perspective, Priest Holmes only had three full starting seasons before he got injured and never returned to form (and only played 5 seasons prior to getting hurt)... Larry Johnson broke down during his fifth NFL seasons, with only two monster starter campaigns... Shaun Alexander, one of the best fantasy running backs ever, was able to only last five seasons as a monster starter in the NFL, as he broke down during his sixth NFL season. McCoy's eight seasons is a grip, and while he could have one more elite year left, my advice is to let someone else take the chance at top 7 overall value! Avoid at ADP value of 5-9 overall!|
|8||Melvin Gordon||RB||SD||Use ADP When Drafting|
|9||Mike Evans||WR||TB||Use ADP When Drafting|
|10||Jordan Howard||RB||CHI||CAUTION: I like Jordan Howard a lot, however, to be a top 10 overall pick in fantasy football, a player, to me, needs to feel more for sure and have less questions surrounding their QB situation (Mike Glennon) and entire passing game (now without any WR but Cameron Meredith and Kevin White). I'm sorry, but that smells like disappointment from a team standpoint and moving the chains standpoint. I like Howard, and I'd love to own him as a late second-round type talent, but that's not going to happen in any league/draft... I'll pass at anywhere near 8-12 overall ADP!|
|11||A.J. Green||WR||CIN||Use ADP When Drafting|
|12||DeMarco Murray||RB||TEN||CAUTION: First off, I still like owning both DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry, so if you can own both for sure, I don't mind this ADP value too much. I think there are safer ways to go (and you can still draft just Henry as a secret weapon), but I don't mind this value IF you have the duo. If you do not have the duo, in dynasty or redraft, I think this is dangerous value (top 12) for DeMarco drafters/owners. In redraft, it's madness if you don't absolutely reach for Henry, but at 5.11 ADP, Henry is looking like he will cost a boatload. That's your fifth-drafted player right there. My advice this year, in redraft, is to avoid DeMarco Murray at top 12 overall value... in order to handcuff him to Henry, it's too costly, as you have to reach past 5.11 to ensure you get both, and even 5.11 feels nuts, so reaching even higher to be certain, no thanks... In dynasty, sell-high on DeMarco if possible.|
|13||Jordy Nelson||WR||GB||Use ADP When Drafting|
|14||Jay Ajayi||RB||MIA||Use ADP When Drafting|
|15||Devonta Freeman||RB||ATL||Use ADP When Drafting|
|16||Todd Gurley||RB||LA||SLEEPER ALERT: In redraft or dynasty, Todd Gurley looks to have all risk built into his ADP/trade value. This is his floor, but I consistently see him at the 14-16 overall range. Steal! I reach even up to pick 12 overall and I buy all day! He could struggle if he gets no offensive support, but he can also be the No. 1 overall player in fantasy football again! Buy! Draft!|
|17||Dez Bryant||WR||DAL||Use ADP When Drafting|
|18||Michael Thomas||WR||NO||CAUTION: I like Michael Thomas, but wow, this is costly. I'm almost shocked that fantasy owners are willing to draft him ahead of players like DeAndre Hopkins, Amari Cooper, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. I get it, he is in a great spot, but he still has lots of risk, and to make him your second-drafted player in redraft? In dynasty, if I own him, I sell-high, because his dynasty value is easily as high as this. At least. That's a great sell-high opportunity if you ask me, because even if I'm wrong and he does workout and be this good, you're selling high, so you should get something back that will too be awesome, thus you lose nothing by trading him into a likely safer option.|
|19||T.Y. Hilton||WR||IND||Use ADP When Drafting|
|20||Lamar Miller||RB||HOU||Use ADP When Drafting|
|21||Aaron Rodgers||QB||GB||SLEEPER ALERT: I always suggest ignoring ADP a little when it comes to the top 1-3QBs, and that doesn't change entering 2017. However, this ADP feels a touch off when compared to what is likely to happen in most drafts.
So, assuming Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Tom Brady all fall to about 25 overall, I am fine with drafting any of the three in the top 25-36... I reach for those big guns, as any one of them can be the number one overall scorer in fantasy.
|22||Amari Cooper||WR||OAK||SLEEPER ALERT: Like DeAndre Hopkins below, this is "win a league" type stuff if Amari Cooper becomes what I think he will become. Sure, he busted in 2016, but he is entering his third NFL seasons, sometimes WRs need 2 full played seasons before they explode. Cooper has already shown me flashes of being a top 5WR in fantasy. I am all in. I'm buying low in dynasty at this value and slightly higher, and I have no worries drafting him in redraft at this value, and would reach a few slots if needed.|
|23||Mark Ingram||RB||NO||Use ADP When Drafting|
|24||Carlos Hyde||RB||SF||Use ADP When Drafting|
|25||Rob Gronkowski||TE||NE||Use ADP When Drafting|
|26||DeAndre Hopkins||WR||HOU||SLEEPER ALERT: Whenever you have a player ranking outside of the second-round, meaning you can draft him, or trade for him, at value equal to your third-best player, yet he has top 1-5 potential at his position, that's what you call 'win a league' value. Hopkins may have risk, and he certainly busted last year, at least given his draft value... however, I have zero concerns about his talent or future, he just had a bad situation last year. The risk is his situation does not improve, but that's a risk that is now built into 24-26 overall value. Don't even worry about reaching 5-6 picks above this value for Hopkins, he's easily worth a top 18-22 overall selection on draft day, and I'd easily trade for him at that value in dynasty. Easily!|
|27||CJ Anderson||RB||DEN||CAUTION: I don't even understand this ADP. I wouldn't touch CJ even in the next round let alone this 27th overall range. Avoid and do not use ADP.|
|28||Brandin Cooks||WR||NE||Use ADP When Drafting|
|29||Allen Robinson||WR||JAC||Use ADP When Drafting|
|30||Spencer Ware||RB||SEA||Use ADP When Drafting|
|31||Davante Adams||WR||GB||Use ADP When Drafting|
|32||Tom Brady||QB||NE||SLEEPER ALERT: See Aaron Rodgers comment above!|
|33||Doug Baldwin||WR||SEA||Use ADP When Drafting|
|34||Latavius Murray||RB||MIN||Use ADP When Drafting|
|35||Tyreek Hill||WR||KC||Use ADP When Drafting|
|36||Keenan Allen||WR||SD||Use ADP When Drafting|
|37||Adrian Peterson||RB||MIN||Use ADP When Drafting|
|38||Alshon Jeffery||WR||PHI||SLEEPER ALERT: Is Alshon Jeffery an injury risk? Yes, absolutely. Is that built into 38 overall value? Yes, without question. I like this value, as he still has top 7-10WR appeal in my opinion.|
|39||Drew Brees||QB||NO||SLEEPER ALERT: See Aaron Rodgers comment above!|
|40||Sammy Watkins||WR||BUF||Use ADP When Drafting|
|44||Demaryius Thomas||WR||DEN||Use ADP When Drafting|
|41||LeGarrette Blount||RB||NE||Use ADP When Drafting|
|42||Travis Kelce||TE||KC||Use ADP When Drafting|
|43||Tevin Coleman||RB||ATL||Use ADP When Drafting|
|45||Eddie Lacy||RB||SEA||Use ADP When Drafting|
|46||Thomas Rawls||RB||SEA||Use ADP When Drafting|
|47||Michael Crabtree||WR||OAK||Use ADP When Drafting|
|48||Andrew Luck||QB||IND||Use ADP When Drafting|
|49||Julian Edelman||WR||NE||Use ADP When Drafting|
|50||Jordan Reed||TE||WAS||Use ADP When Drafting|
|51||Isaiah Crowell||RB||CLE||Use ADP When Drafting|
|52||Jeremy Hill||RB||CIN||Use ADP When Drafting|
|53||Greg Olsen||TE||CAR||Use ADP When Drafting|
|54||Jarvis Landry||WR||MIA||Use ADP When Drafting|
|62||Derek Carr||QB||OAK||Use ADP When Drafting|
|55||Matt Ryan||QB||ATL||Use ADP When Drafting|
|56||Doug Martin||RB||TB||Use ADP When Drafting|
|61||Derrick Henry||RB||TEN||Use ADP When Drafting|
|57||Brandon Marshall||WR||NYG||Use ADP When Drafting|
|58||Kelvin Benjamin||WR||CAR||Use ADP When Drafting|
|59||Tyler Eifert||TE||CIN||Use ADP When Drafting|
|60||Jamaal Charles||RB||KC||Use ADP When Drafting|
|63||Larry Fitzgerald||WR||ARI||Use ADP When Drafting|
|64||Bilal Powell||RB||NYJ||Use ADP When Drafting|
|65||Martavis Bryant||WR||PIT||SLEEPER ALERT: Reaching about 5-6 picks for Bryant might be worth it in 2017. I get it, he has failed us all thus far, but he is just so talented. If he stays on the field, he could flirt with top 25 overall value. Draft in redraft and buy-low in dynasty if possible!|
|66||Terrelle Pryor||WR||WAS||Use ADP When Drafting|
|67||Jimmy Graham||TE||SEA||Use ADP When Drafting|
|68||Frank Gore||RB||IND||Use ADP When Drafting|
|69||Cam Newton||QB||CAR||Use ADP When Drafting|
|70||Delanie Walker||TE||TEN||Use ADP When Drafting|
|71||Jonathan Stewart||RB||CAR||Use ADP When Drafting|
|72||Donte Moncrief||WR||IND||Use ADP When Drafting|
|73||Ty Montgomery||WR||GB||Use ADP When Drafting|
|74||Dak Prescott||QB||DAL||Use ADP When Drafting|
|75||Kenneth Dixon||RB||BAL||Use ADP When Drafting|
|76||Emmanuel Sanders||WR||DEN||Use ADP When Drafting|
|77||Russell Wilson||QB||SEA||Use ADP When Drafting|
|78||Matt Forte||RB||NYJ||Use ADP When Drafting|
|79||Hunter Henry||TE||SD||Use ADP When Drafting|
|80||Rob Kelley||RB||WAS||Use ADP When Drafting|
|81||Golden Tate||WR||DET||Use ADP When Drafting|
|82||Ameer Abdullah||RB||DET||Use ADP When Drafting|
|83||Ben Roethlisberger||QB||PIT||Use ADP When Drafting|
|84||Rishard Matthews||WR||TEN||Use ADP When Drafting|
|85||Paul Perkins||RB||NYG||Use ADP When Drafting|
|86||Dion Lewis||RB||NE||Use ADP When Drafting|
|87||Kyle Rudolph||TE||MIN||Use ADP When Drafting|
|88||Kirk Cousins||QB||WAS||Use ADP When Drafting|
|89||Jamison Crowder||WR||WAS||Use ADP When Drafting|
|90||CJ Prosise||RB||SEA||Use ADP When Drafting|
|91||Randall Cobb||WR||GB||Use ADP When Drafting|
|92||Giovani Bernard||RB||CIN||Use ADP When Drafting|
|93||DeSean Jackson||WR||TB||Use ADP When Drafting|
|94||Danny Woodhead||RB||BAL||Use ADP When Drafting|
|95||Stefon Diggs||WR||MIN||Use ADP When Drafting|
|96||Eric Decker||WR||NYJ||Use ADP When Drafting|
|97||Kansas City Defense||DEF||KC||Use ADP When Drafting|
|98||Theo Riddick||RB||DET||Use ADP When Drafting|
|99||Marcus Mariota||QB||TEN||Use ADP When Drafting|
|100||Mike Gillislee||RB||BUF||Use ADP When Drafting|
|101||Cameron Brate||TE||TB||Use ADP When Drafting|
|102||Denver Defense||DEF||DEN||Use ADP When Drafting|
|103||Seattle Defense||DEF||SEA||Use ADP When Drafting|
|104||Jacquizz Rodgers||RB||CHI||Use ADP When Drafting|
|105||Corey Coleman||WR||CLE||Use ADP When Drafting|
|106||Zach Ertz||TE||PHI||Use ADP When Drafting|
|107||Jameis Winston||QB||TB||Use ADP When Drafting|
|108||Sterling Shepard||WR||NYG||Use ADP When Drafting|
|109||DeVante Parker||WR||MIA||Use ADP When Drafting|
|110||Jordan Matthews||WR||PHI||Use ADP When Drafting|
|111||Matthew Stafford||QB||DET||Use ADP When Drafting|
|112||Ryan Mathews||RB||PHI||Use ADP When Drafting|
|113||Houston Defense||DEF||HOU||Use ADP When Drafting|
|114||Jeremy Maclin||WR||KC||Use ADP When Drafting|
|115||Minnesota Defense||DEF||MIN||Use ADP When Drafting|
|116||Martellus Bennett||TE||GB||Use ADP When Drafting|
|117||Willie Snead||WR||NO||Use ADP When Drafting|
|118||Philip Rivers||QB||SD||Use ADP When Drafting|
|119||Chris Ivory||RB||JAC||Use ADP When Drafting|
|120||Eli Manning||QB||NYG||Use ADP When Drafting|
|121||Kevin White||WR||CHI||Use ADP When Drafting|
|122||New England Defense||DEF||NE||Use ADP When Drafting|
|123||DeAngelo Williams||RB||PIT||Use ADP When Drafting|
|124||Arizona Defense||DEF||ARI||Use ADP When Drafting|
|125||Devontae Booker||RB||DEN||Use ADP When Drafting|
Ok, it’s the end of August, so it’s time to look at fresh 2016 Fantasy Football ADP Data (Average Draft Positions). These ADP Rankings were compiled using some of the best redraft ADPs in the industry, and I have included over 100 player predictions/comments.
BOLD = Amazing Value![table “11” not found /]
Fantasy football rankings / cheat sheets are the most important thing to bring with you on draft day, no question… however, it’s almost equally important to have a fresh copy of ADP Rankings with you. Average Draft Position Rankings (ADP Data) will tell you where players are getting drafted on average, which is information that you need when on the clock, as you will avoid reaching too far for certain sleepers, and it will help you grab your ‘must own’ fantasy football players before anyone else attempts to snag them. Be prepared for your 2016 fantasy football draft!
Note: This ADP Rankings List was compiled by averaging some of the best redraft ADP Rankings on the Web.
Below is an updated set of redraft and dynasty 2016 Fantasy Football ADP Data. Both are based on a PPR format and both have been compiled using some of the best Average draft Position Data in the fantasy football industry. Be sure to checkout our fantasy football rankings as well, but it’s critical to have a grasp on ADP Rankings so you know where players are getting drafted on draft day. Enjoy!
Note: This data contains trending that began in January (2016) to the present.
It’s the middle of January, 2016, however, that won’t stop us from publishing our first 2016 Average Draft Position (ADP) data. The below ADP List was compiled using some of the top fantasy football ADP sources in the industry.
Note: this ADP is redraft.
I noticed, at a glance, a few big-time steals.
Devonta Freeman at 1.09 is low-risk if you ask me, as he still has top 1-4RB upside heading into 2016.
David Johnson at the 2.03 range seems like a bargain given that he has top 4-6RB appeal in 2016. Now, he’d have some risk if you had to draft him, or trade for him at top 4-6RB value, so this is great news. I imagine his value will only climb as the 2016 off-season (and the current NFL post-season) moves along.
Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Blake Bortles and Russell Wilson all appear to be set for draft slots outside of the top 30 overall, which is fantastic news, as any one of those QBs can be the No. 1 overall scorer in fantasy football in 2016. That said, Kirk Cousins in the 8th-round is shockingly-low. And, Drew Brees falling into the 6th-round? Where to take a fantasy QB will be a hot topic in the coming months, something we will absolutely address.
Josh Gordon in the late 4th-round is awesome value, even though he was much, much cheaper weeks ago.
Two monster steals: DeMarco Murray in the 5th-round and Jordan Matthews in the 8th-round! Folks, Matthews is a HUGE, HUGE sleeper anywhere near 7th- to 8th-round value. Mark it down!
Look for more 2016 fantasy football Breakouts and Sleepers in coming articles, we’re going crank out tons of stuff on breakouts and sleepers in the coming months!