Ok, so the 2016 NFL Draft is approaching, and maybe you’re wanting to trade into a high rookie draft pick in your league. Or, maybe you just want to get some trades going prior to the draft when some players could see decreased values based on draft day selections. Whatever the reason, let’s toss out some players that are Sell-High Candidates heading into the upcoming 2016 fantasy football season.
First off, let me start by saying that I am not necessarily predicting Kirk Cousins to bust in 2016. In fact, he is kind of an exciting player to own in some ways, as he looked solid at times in 2016. That said, fantasy football is all about value, and while you might not be able to swing for the fences trade-wise, it’s not a bad idea to test trade waters with QB-needy teams in your league(s). Or, maybe make a trade for an undervalued Drew Brees or Tom Brady, as both of those veteran passers are getting very disrespected value-wise in dynasty. Make sure you try trading Cousins in some sort of multi-player deal, though, as that often times makes owners more willing to take risks, as more players are involved to help make up for disappointment by certain players in the deal. One reason I bring Cousins up as a sell-high is because in most all cases, anyone that owns him in dynasty had him on the bench prior to his rise, so there is a strong chance he is a back-up passer.
As much as I don’t want to be that guy going against the super human Adrian Peterson, I think it’s time to sell-high in dynasty. He could go nuts in 2016, so keep that in mind if you are wanting to win now and aren’t too concerned about the future. Do NOT trade him for even mediocre value, though, it’s either get an awesome amount of value in return, or ride AP into the sunset. What is enough value in dynasty, though? That’s tough to say, as his redraft ADP is in the 1.05-1.07 overall range; however, his dynasty ADP is kind of impossible to calculate (at least accurately), as every league is so different. Can you get 2nd-round value out of him? I venture to say yes, at least in some cases. Maybe not in leagues with very experienced owners. It all depends on your league. And, like above with Cousins, your best bet to max out the trade-in value is to make some multi-player offer, as it gives fantasy owners more room for error on any one player in the deal. Sometimes I hear a SleeperU reader write in the comments “No one will buy him in my league at that price”, yet that reader just offered one for one type deals, or they at least didn’t keep trying to make multi-player blockbuster-type offers. It takes work! If you can package a WR2/3 and Adrian Peterson for a player like Amari Cooper, or David Johnson, jump all over it. I say Cooper and Johnson because they haven’t quite maxed out on value yet, and while many see those two rising and ready to explode, some owners might still undervalue these two. Get draft picks involved if need be. Another idea, even though it’s a risky one, is to trade AP for a doubted player like DeMarco Murray. AP could explode for 1-1.5 more years, while Murray could never rebound at all, so know that there is risk in this idea. Bring your trade offers and ideas to the forums (or comment below!), as this particular player/trade is tricky.
I like Thomas Rawls a lot, and if you are a regular here at SleeperU, then you know he was one of the first players on the 2016 Bold Predictions (Upside Board). In fact, I added him in November of last year, so he has been sitting on there well, well before he gained the kind of value he currently has now. Folks, love him or really love him, he has climbed into 2.02-2.06 draft/trade value, and that is pretty solid. Solid enough to laterally trade into a safer player, like an Amari Cooper, Lamar Miller or even an undervalued AJ Green (even if you have to give up a bit more, let’s say some draft picks). All three are getting drafted after Rawls according to redraft ADPs, and since Rawls is just getting his career started, there is no reason to think you can’t get an AJ Green or Amari Cooper owner to consider a swap if they in fact need a rusher (especially if you can give up a touch more). Do NOT sell-low, though, as I like Rawls, I can’t stress that enough… but, good value is good value!
Like Thomas Rawls, I like Jeremy Langford a lot, but again this is about value, and Langford has climbed into 2.09-2.12 value, which is right near an AJ Green or even a Mike Evans (and maybe Amari Cooper in leagues that aren’t packed with veteran fantasy players). Do NOT sell-low, but test trade waters to see if you can get yourself into a safer RB option, or solid WR solution. The NFL Draft could destroy Langford’s value all together, or it could make it climb (if Chicago does not address the running back position with a bigger name player). So, keep that in mind as you make your offers.
Ok, folks, SleeperU content is about to get crazy. Ready for the 2016 fantasy football season already? Our 2016 content is about to drop already, and you can soon purchase your 2016 Subscription at a discount and get to crackin’ on next year! While we wait for all that to drop, here is yet more FREE content for 2015.
With Matt Forte and LeSean McCoy banged up (and of course runners like Jamaal Charles and LeVeon Bell out for the season), who is the 4th-best fantasy rusher in football right now and moving forward (for 2015)?
First, let’s make it clear who the top three rushers are…
Top 3 Fantasy Runners
1. Todd Gurley
2. Devonta Freeman
3. Adrian Peterson
The order of these three is debatable, and some might STILL doubt Devonta Freeman as an elite back (I am not one of those people), but this three is pretty much the consensus top three rushers in fantasy football right now (for Weeks 10-16). I think once/if Matt Forte returns, he commands consideration for the 4th spot, as does LeSean McCoy if he proves healthy this week and proves that Karlos Williams isn’t locked into more than 25-30% of the carries over in Buffalo. Past those two, I say DeAngelo Williams needs to be mentioned, as he has posted these three lines in his only three starts this season:
Week 1: 127 rushing yards, 1 reception for 5 yards
Week 2: 77 rushing yards, 3TDs, 4 receptions for 15 yards
Week 9: 170 rushing yards, 2TDs, 2 receptions for 55 yards
… those are some serious lines, and while D-Will is an older back prone to injury, keep in mind he is fresh and will essentially be playing only a touch over half a season. He could absolutely hold up and stay relatively healthy. These are the most valuable runners heading into Weeks 10-16, Gurely, Freeman, Peterson, Williams, and then Matt Forte and LeSean McCoy when proven healthy.
Ok, so here is a few Week 8 Fantasy Football Predictions. Some are bolder than others, but here we go!
Adrian Peterson is hit and miss due to game flow, and that could continue all year, but Minny looks relatively on track heading into Week 7, and they have Diggs stretching the field… the Bears, giving up 124.8 yards-per-game to regular human running backs, is a tasty match-up that AP can/will likely exploit.
The Browns are the worst in the league against the run, surrendering 151 rushing yards-per-game on the ground. They also have given up 8TDs in seven games. This is a great matchup for CJ2K owners.
The Saints give up the 4th-most rushing yards in the NFL (129.1 yards-per-game), and they surrender 1.0 rushing TDs per contest. This kid is exciting, and while there is always a chance the coaching staff messes this one up, and that news reports have misread the workload expectations in NY in Week 8, it’s time to go bold or go home. Ok, well, don’t go sitting a stud for this unknown, but if you feel like taking a risk at your flex spot this week, Darkwa could be your guy!
David Cobb (calf) is expected to see a big workload in Week 9 (when he returns). While it’s important to keep in mind that news wires get this wrong, and there is a lot of speculation involved in calling out a player like this who ‘could be’ on the rise, he should be grabbed in all leagues. He screams “big surprise” or “total disappointment”, make no mistake that he carries both possibilities, but the risk is near zero given he is on waivers in many leagues. Grab him.
Stefon Diggs is the real deal (again, shout out to @WTCM and others). The dude can ball, and as I said before last week, he had that Marques Colston type feel heading into Week 7, that ‘out of nowhere’ player that people slowly buy into. Don’t keep waiting, buy in!
Why toss out something so unpredictable? Why not?
It’s Week 7 and it’s time to do another dynasty mock draft for next year. Below is a 2016 Dynasty Fantasy Football Mock Draft.
This is based on a PPR format, and again, it’s dynasty, but also in a looking-forward fashion, meaning the future matters more than anything, but some drafters took Weeks 7-16 (2015) into account as well. Rounds 1 and 2, and part of 3, took place on our forums, so keep that in mind as I write this up, this was not my ranking.
Thanks to all who participated in this mock draft!
1.01 – LeVeon Bell
1.02 – Julio Jones
1.03 – Antonio Brown
1.04 – Odell Beckham Jr.
1.05 – Todd Gurley
1.06 – Rob Gronkowski
1.07 – Dez Bryant
1.08 – Andrew Luck
1.09 – AJ Green
1.10 – Eddie Lacy
1.11 – Amari Cooper
1.12 – Aaron Rodgers
Smitty’s Take: I really love the top 10 heading into next year, and I think we have a super-strong 12ish moving forward for Weeks 7-16. While I would personally have DeAndre Hopkins in the top 5-10 overall, keep in mind that this mock draft began on Saturday the 17th, so it was before DeAndre Hopkins had yet another phenomenal outing. My guess is that he would be inside the top 5-10 overall if we had waited two days to begin the mock. This is actually a good thing, as it points out how influential one single week is, even when talking about a player like Hopkins who was already climbing high in value. So, placing Hopkins inside the top 5-10 overall, then pulling up Devonta Freeman into the top 8-12 overall, and maybe knocking Amari Cooper down about 4-5 picks, I love this top 12 overall as is. I think this group of mock drafters did a great job mocking this up. I think both DeMarco Murray and LeSean McCoy command some consideration in the 10-14 overall range. My personal top 20 dynasty players, as of today, are:
1. LeVeon Bell, 2. Julio Jones, 3. Todd Gurley, 4. Antonio Brown, 5. Odell Beckham Jr., 6. Rob Gronkowski, 7. Dez Bryant, 8. DeAndre Hopkins, 9. Aaron Rodgers, 10. Andrew Luck, 11. AJ Green, 12. Devonta Freeman, 13. Eddie Lacy, 14. Amari Cooper, 15. Demaryius Thomas, 16. LeSean McCoy, 17. DeMarco Murray, 18. Melvin Gordon, 19. Carlos Hyde, 20. Josh Gordon
My guess is No. 20, Josh Gordon, is a surprise, but note that that could become the norm in 4-5 short months, or he could fall out of fantasy relevance all together. He is a risky player, but someone to keep on your trade radar right now!
2.01 – Devonta Freeman
2.02 – DeAndre Hopkins
2.03 – Demaryius Thomas
2.04 – Melvin Gordon
2.05 – Carlos Hyde
2.06 – Keenan Allen
2.07 – LeSean McCoy
2.08 – Randall Cobb
2.09 – DeMarco Murray
2.10 – Alshon Jeffery
2.11 – Allen Robinson
2.12 – Jordan Matthews
Smitty’s Take: As I said above, DeAndre Hopkins was ranked a bit low in this mock, but this mock draft began the day before Week 6 kicked off — He is pretty much a consensus, top 5-7 overall pick in all dynasty formats. Also, as said above, DeMarco Murray deserves some top 10-14 overall consideration. The rest of this round is loaded with players on the rise, players currently on the decline, and/or coming back from injury as we speak. I’m pretty sure we will see some huge value changes in players like LeSean McCoy, Carlos Hyde, Alshon Jeffery and Melvin Gordon as we close out the remainder of the 2015 fantasy football season.
3.01 – Mike Evans
3.02 – TY Hilton
…this is where the mock ended on the forums, however, I have added the remainder of the third round via a combination of rankings, personal preference and current stats.
3.03 – Adrian Peterson
3.04 – Calvin Johnson
3.05 – Matt Forte
3.06 – Jarvis Landry
3.07 – Doug Martin
3.08 – Emmanuel Sanders
3.09 – Lamar Miller
3.10 – Chris Ivory
3.11 – Marshawn Lynch
3.12 – Latavius Murray
Others: Josh Gordon, Brandon Marshall, Jeremy Hill, Travis Kelce, Tyler Eifert, TJ Yeldon, Arian Foster, Tom Brady, Giovani Bernard, Drew Brees, Greg Olsen, Justin Forsett, and many more.
Smitty’s Take: I think Adrian Peterson has at least one more elite year left, so he remains a nice bargain in dynasty, especially if you make two excellent ‘future’ type picks in rounds 1-2. Players like Calvin Johnson, Marshawn Lynch and Matt Forte will either make or break seasons in 2016, as they are falling so low, but that’s why they are falling into the third-round, because of the risk. Will we see Josh Gordon climb into the high third-round, or higher, as we near 2016? I think so! I think many are not considering the possibilities right now, and that’s normal, but it’s a good time to point this out and recommend some trade attempts! Will Chris Ivory rise or climb from his 3.10 spot? Will Latavius Murray rebound down the stretch in 2015? Will Doug Martin maintain his value that he is building on as we speak? Time will tell! Great mock, everyone!
Most fantasy football seasons, a player, often a running back, emerges and reaches top 1-5RB heights… yet, it’s a common reaction to doubt that player’s rise well into the fantasy football season. Well, for those still doubting the rise of Devonta Freeman, it’s time to accept that he is a top 1-3 fantasy running back moving forward (redraft). Freeman is no stranger to being ranked high on my rankings, as he was on last year’s Top 10 Bold Predictions. Now, he failed to deliver last year, clearly, but the talent has been there the entire time, he just needed the chance.
Moving forward in Weeks 6-17, these are my top three fantasy football running backs (redraft):
…Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte, Eddie Lacy, all three make a good argument to be in the top 2-5 RBs moving forward (Bell is cemented in the 1.01 in all formats for me). And, if we’re talking dynasty, I slot Bell no. 1, as I just mentioned, and Gurley no. 2… Freeman is currently the best candidate for the third spot, though. Disagree? Argue against it below in the comments!
If you know a Devonta Freeman doubter, send him the image above!