Archive for 2017 mock draft

When to Ignore ADP?

smitty fantasy football advice

If you are anything close to being a serious fantasy football owner, you know all about ADP (Average Draft Position) Data, which is essentially compiled mock draft data that suggests where, on average, players are typically getting drafted.

I am a HUGE believer in using ADP Data to your advantage. In fact, I consider it one of the most important aspects of fantasy football… if you don’t use Average Draft Position rankings properly when you have your original draft, or when you factor in trade values, you will never ‘get ahead’ and acquire that impossible-type team. That’s the goal, right? To have a team that others say out loud, “how the heck did he get that team?”

So, now to the fun part..

Question: When should one ignore ADP Data?

Answer: Every situation is uniquely different. There is no for sure answer.

So, taking a current average of current ADPs out there on the Web (as of 4/12/2017), I will identify players I would Significantly Reach For, in a sense ignoring ADPs. I will also speak to the flip side, players I feel are NOT worth their going ADP rank. Note: All other players not identified below should be attained at, or very near, their going ADP rank, or I have no real opinion regarding their current ADP.

ADP Data as of 4/12/2017

4/12/17: This Mock Draft Data was compiled using several 2017 ADPs

#PlayerPosTmComment About ADP
1David JohnsonRBARI Use ADP When Drafting
2Ezekiel ElliottRBDAL Use ADP When Drafting
3LeVeon BellRBPIT Use ADP When Drafting
4Antonio BrownWRPIT Use ADP When Drafting
5Odell Beckham JrWRNYG Use ADP When Drafting
6Julio JonesWRATL Use ADP When Drafting
7LeSean McCoyRBBUFCAUTION: While LeSean McCoy is very capable of being a top 7 overall player in 2017, he is also at that age in his career where he could drop off the face of the earth due to injury. He is turning 29 before the 2017 season begins, he has a long injury history with knees/legs, and he has eight starting seasons in the rear view, which is a TON for an NFL rusher. To put that into perspective, Priest Holmes only had three full starting seasons before he got injured and never returned to form (and only played 5 seasons prior to getting hurt)... Larry Johnson broke down during his fifth NFL seasons, with only two monster starter campaigns... Shaun Alexander, one of the best fantasy running backs ever, was able to only last five seasons as a monster starter in the NFL, as he broke down during his sixth NFL season. McCoy's eight seasons is a grip, and while he could have one more elite year left, my advice is to let someone else take the chance at top 7 overall value! Avoid at ADP value of 5-9 overall!
8Melvin GordonRBSD Use ADP When Drafting
9Mike EvansWRTB Use ADP When Drafting
10Jordan HowardRBCHICAUTION: I like Jordan Howard a lot, however, to be a top 10 overall pick in fantasy football, a player, to me, needs to feel more for sure and have less questions surrounding their QB situation (Mike Glennon) and entire passing game (now without any WR but Cameron Meredith and Kevin White). I'm sorry, but that smells like disappointment from a team standpoint and moving the chains standpoint. I like Howard, and I'd love to own him as a late second-round type talent, but that's not going to happen in any league/draft... I'll pass at anywhere near 8-12 overall ADP!
11A.J. GreenWRCIN Use ADP When Drafting
12DeMarco MurrayRBTENCAUTION: First off, I still like owning both DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry, so if you can own both for sure, I don't mind this ADP value too much. I think there are safer ways to go (and you can still draft just Henry as a secret weapon), but I don't mind this value IF you have the duo. If you do not have the duo, in dynasty or redraft, I think this is dangerous value (top 12) for DeMarco drafters/owners. In redraft, it's madness if you don't absolutely reach for Henry, but at 5.11 ADP, Henry is looking like he will cost a boatload. That's your fifth-drafted player right there. My advice this year, in redraft, is to avoid DeMarco Murray at top 12 overall value... in order to handcuff him to Henry, it's too costly, as you have to reach past 5.11 to ensure you get both, and even 5.11 feels nuts, so reaching even higher to be certain, no thanks... In dynasty, sell-high on DeMarco if possible.
13Jordy NelsonWRGB Use ADP When Drafting
14Jay AjayiRBMIA Use ADP When Drafting
15Devonta FreemanRBATL Use ADP When Drafting
16Todd GurleyRBLASLEEPER ALERT: In redraft or dynasty, Todd Gurley looks to have all risk built into his ADP/trade value. This is his floor, but I consistently see him at the 14-16 overall range. Steal! I reach even up to pick 12 overall and I buy all day! He could struggle if he gets no offensive support, but he can also be the No. 1 overall player in fantasy football again! Buy! Draft!
17Dez BryantWRDAL Use ADP When Drafting
18Michael ThomasWRNOCAUTION: I like Michael Thomas, but wow, this is costly. I'm almost shocked that fantasy owners are willing to draft him ahead of players like DeAndre Hopkins, Amari Cooper, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. I get it, he is in a great spot, but he still has lots of risk, and to make him your second-drafted player in redraft? In dynasty, if I own him, I sell-high, because his dynasty value is easily as high as this. At least. That's a great sell-high opportunity if you ask me, because even if I'm wrong and he does workout and be this good, you're selling high, so you should get something back that will too be awesome, thus you lose nothing by trading him into a likely safer option.
19T.Y. HiltonWRIND Use ADP When Drafting
20Lamar MillerRBHOU Use ADP When Drafting
21Aaron RodgersQBGBSLEEPER ALERT: I always suggest ignoring ADP a little when it comes to the top 1-3QBs, and that doesn't change entering 2017. However, this ADP feels a touch off when compared to what is likely to happen in most drafts.
So, assuming Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Tom Brady all fall to about 25 overall, I am fine with drafting any of the three in the top 25-36... I reach for those big guns, as any one of them can be the number one overall scorer in fantasy.
22Amari CooperWROAKSLEEPER ALERT: Like DeAndre Hopkins below, this is "win a league" type stuff if Amari Cooper becomes what I think he will become. Sure, he busted in 2016, but he is entering his third NFL seasons, sometimes WRs need 2 full played seasons before they explode. Cooper has already shown me flashes of being a top 5WR in fantasy. I am all in. I'm buying low in dynasty at this value and slightly higher, and I have no worries drafting him in redraft at this value, and would reach a few slots if needed.
23Mark IngramRBNO Use ADP When Drafting
24Carlos HydeRBSF Use ADP When Drafting
25Rob GronkowskiTENE Use ADP When Drafting
26DeAndre HopkinsWRHOUSLEEPER ALERT: Whenever you have a player ranking outside of the second-round, meaning you can draft him, or trade for him, at value equal to your third-best player, yet he has top 1-5 potential at his position, that's what you call 'win a league' value. Hopkins may have risk, and he certainly busted last year, at least given his draft value... however, I have zero concerns about his talent or future, he just had a bad situation last year. The risk is his situation does not improve, but that's a risk that is now built into 24-26 overall value. Don't even worry about reaching 5-6 picks above this value for Hopkins, he's easily worth a top 18-22 overall selection on draft day, and I'd easily trade for him at that value in dynasty. Easily!
27CJ AndersonRBDENCAUTION: I don't even understand this ADP. I wouldn't touch CJ even in the next round let alone this 27th overall range. Avoid and do not use ADP.
28Brandin CooksWRNE Use ADP When Drafting
29Allen RobinsonWRJAC Use ADP When Drafting
30Spencer WareRBSEA Use ADP When Drafting
31Davante AdamsWRGB Use ADP When Drafting
32Tom BradyQBNESLEEPER ALERT: See Aaron Rodgers comment above!
33Doug BaldwinWRSEA Use ADP When Drafting
34Latavius MurrayRBMIN Use ADP When Drafting
35Tyreek HillWRKC Use ADP When Drafting
36Keenan AllenWRSD Use ADP When Drafting
37Adrian PetersonRBMIN Use ADP When Drafting
38Alshon JefferyWRPHISLEEPER ALERT: Is Alshon Jeffery an injury risk? Yes, absolutely. Is that built into 38 overall value? Yes, without question. I like this value, as he still has top 7-10WR appeal in my opinion.
39Drew BreesQBNOSLEEPER ALERT: See Aaron Rodgers comment above!
40Sammy WatkinsWRBUF Use ADP When Drafting
44Demaryius ThomasWRDEN Use ADP When Drafting
41LeGarrette BlountRBNE Use ADP When Drafting
42Travis KelceTEKC Use ADP When Drafting
43Tevin ColemanRBATL Use ADP When Drafting
45Eddie LacyRBSEA Use ADP When Drafting
46Thomas RawlsRBSEA Use ADP When Drafting
47Michael CrabtreeWROAK Use ADP When Drafting
48Andrew LuckQBIND Use ADP When Drafting
49Julian EdelmanWRNE Use ADP When Drafting
50Jordan ReedTEWAS Use ADP When Drafting
51Isaiah CrowellRBCLE Use ADP When Drafting
52Jeremy HillRBCIN Use ADP When Drafting
53Greg OlsenTECAR Use ADP When Drafting
54Jarvis LandryWRMIA Use ADP When Drafting
62Derek CarrQBOAK Use ADP When Drafting
55Matt RyanQBATL Use ADP When Drafting
56Doug MartinRBTB Use ADP When Drafting
61Derrick HenryRBTEN Use ADP When Drafting
57Brandon MarshallWRNYG Use ADP When Drafting
58Kelvin BenjaminWRCAR Use ADP When Drafting
59Tyler EifertTECIN Use ADP When Drafting
60Jamaal CharlesRBKC Use ADP When Drafting
63Larry FitzgeraldWRARI Use ADP When Drafting
64Bilal PowellRBNYJ Use ADP When Drafting
65Martavis BryantWRPITSLEEPER ALERT: Reaching about 5-6 picks for Bryant might be worth it in 2017. I get it, he has failed us all thus far, but he is just so talented. If he stays on the field, he could flirt with top 25 overall value. Draft in redraft and buy-low in dynasty if possible!
66Terrelle PryorWRWAS Use ADP When Drafting
67Jimmy GrahamTESEA Use ADP When Drafting
68Frank GoreRBIND Use ADP When Drafting
69Cam NewtonQBCAR Use ADP When Drafting
70Delanie WalkerTETEN Use ADP When Drafting
71Jonathan StewartRBCAR Use ADP When Drafting
72Donte MoncriefWRIND Use ADP When Drafting
73Ty MontgomeryWRGB Use ADP When Drafting
74Dak PrescottQBDAL Use ADP When Drafting
75Kenneth DixonRBBAL Use ADP When Drafting
76Emmanuel SandersWRDEN Use ADP When Drafting
77Russell WilsonQBSEA Use ADP When Drafting
78Matt ForteRBNYJ Use ADP When Drafting
79Hunter HenryTESD Use ADP When Drafting
80Rob KelleyRBWAS Use ADP When Drafting
81Golden TateWRDET Use ADP When Drafting
82Ameer AbdullahRBDET Use ADP When Drafting
83Ben RoethlisbergerQBPIT Use ADP When Drafting
84Rishard MatthewsWRTEN Use ADP When Drafting
85Paul PerkinsRBNYG Use ADP When Drafting
86Dion LewisRBNE Use ADP When Drafting
87Kyle RudolphTEMIN Use ADP When Drafting
88Kirk CousinsQBWAS Use ADP When Drafting
89Jamison CrowderWRWAS Use ADP When Drafting
90CJ ProsiseRBSEA Use ADP When Drafting
91Randall CobbWRGB Use ADP When Drafting
92Giovani BernardRBCIN Use ADP When Drafting
93DeSean JacksonWRTB Use ADP When Drafting
94Danny WoodheadRBBAL Use ADP When Drafting
95Stefon DiggsWRMIN Use ADP When Drafting
96Eric DeckerWRNYJ Use ADP When Drafting
97Kansas City DefenseDEFKC Use ADP When Drafting
98Theo RiddickRBDET Use ADP When Drafting
99Marcus MariotaQBTEN Use ADP When Drafting
100Mike GillisleeRBBUF Use ADP When Drafting
101Cameron BrateTETB Use ADP When Drafting
102Denver DefenseDEFDEN Use ADP When Drafting
103Seattle DefenseDEFSEA Use ADP When Drafting
104Jacquizz RodgersRBCHI Use ADP When Drafting
105Corey ColemanWRCLE Use ADP When Drafting
106Zach ErtzTEPHI Use ADP When Drafting
107Jameis WinstonQBTB Use ADP When Drafting
108Sterling ShepardWRNYG Use ADP When Drafting
109DeVante ParkerWRMIA Use ADP When Drafting
110Jordan MatthewsWRPHI Use ADP When Drafting
111Matthew StaffordQBDET Use ADP When Drafting
112Ryan MathewsRBPHI Use ADP When Drafting
113Houston DefenseDEFHOU Use ADP When Drafting
114Jeremy MaclinWRKC Use ADP When Drafting
115Minnesota DefenseDEFMIN Use ADP When Drafting
116Martellus BennettTEGB Use ADP When Drafting
117Willie SneadWRNO Use ADP When Drafting
118Philip RiversQBSD Use ADP When Drafting
119Chris IvoryRBJAC Use ADP When Drafting
120Eli ManningQBNYG Use ADP When Drafting
121Kevin WhiteWRCHI Use ADP When Drafting
122New England DefenseDEFNE Use ADP When Drafting
123DeAngelo WilliamsRBPIT Use ADP When Drafting
124Arizona DefenseDEFARI Use ADP When Drafting
125Devontae BookerRBDEN Use ADP When Drafting

Updated 2017 Rookie-Only Mock Draft (Fantasy Football)

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2017 First-Round Mock

smitty fantasy football advice

Whether you’re in mostly dynasty leagues or redraft leagues, it’s time to start looking at 2017. Below you will find our Top 12 Overall Fantasy Players heading into 2017, so basically it’s a 2017 First-Round Fantasy Football Mock Draft. It’s ranked for 2017, but I’ll speak to both dynasty and redraft below. Enjoy. Good luck to all still in their 2016 fantasy football Super Bowl hunt!

2017 Mock Draft | First-Round Only

1.01 – Leveon Bell (RB/PIT)
1.02 – David Johnson (RB/AZ)
1.03 – Ezekiel Elliott (RB/DAL)

I’ve been predicting a return of the running back for years… the stud ‘every-down’ back has returned to fantasy football, and while the wide receivers right below are all arguable as top 1-4 overall draft selections in 2017 fantasy football drafts (especially in PPR), having one of the top 3RBs in 2017 will give fantasy owners a clear advantage.

1.04 – Antonio Brown (WR/PIT)
1.05 – Julio Jones (WR/ATL)
1.06 – Odell Beckham (WR/NYG)

The above wide receivers, Brown, Jones and Beckham, all clearly have top 5 overall player upside heading into the 2017 fantasy football season. In 2017 mock drafts, you might see them in the top 1-4 on occasion (any one of them!). This means that six players command at least consideration at 1.01 this upcoming 2017 year, which is crazy. Still, having one of those top RBs is a big, big advantage, especially given potential WR1s could fall (like Cooper, Hopkins, etc), so the 2017 season could be a year where the owners at 1.01-1.03 still land a top 5-10 WR1.

1.07 – Melvin Gordon (RB/SD)
1.08 – Mike Evans (WR/TB)
1.09 – Todd Gurley (RB/LA)
1.10 – AJ Green (WR/CIN)
1.11 – DeMarco Murray (RB/TEN)
1.12 – DeAnde Hopkins (WR/HOU)

This next group of players from 1.07 to 1.12 is loaded with equal parts upside and risk. Sure, any single one of them could be top 5 at their position in 2017. But, Murray and AJG have big injury risk, Melvin Gordon still has some unknowns, Gurley and Hopkins vanished in 2016, and Mike Evans needs to prove consistent. All are huge prospects entering 2017, though, and all have high-end first-round upside.

Deserving of top 7-12 consideration

Devonta Freeman
Jay Ajayi
LeSean McCoy
Jordan Howard
Amari Cooper
Jordy Nelson
Aaron Rodgers
Andrew Luck
Tom Brady
Drew Brees
Rob Gronkowski

Mid-Season Mock Draft (Week 10 on..)

smitty fantasy football advice

Below is a Mid-Season 2016 Fantasy Football Mock Draft, a ROS (Rest Of Season) mock draft that takes into account only a Weeks 10-16 outlook. That means previous stats do not matter, but they guide us into a specific direction as we rank players from Week 10 moving forward. Enjoy!

Round One

  1. Le’veon Bell (RB) – He is capable of averaging over 120 total yards and a TD per week moving forward.
  2. Antonio Brown (WR) – Big Ben is back in the lineup, and despite struggling in Week 9, Brown should be back in everyone’s top 1-4 overall moving forward.
  3. Julio Jones (WR) – Worthy of being ranked No. 1. He is only on pace for 90 receptions, around 1,700 yards and under 9TDs. He is still top two for all WRs in most formats, yet he has room to score a lot more and pull in 1-2 more receptions per contest.
  4. David Johnson (RB) – He’s in the top two for rushers in most formats and I see no reason why that changes in Weeks 10-16, especially given how involved he is in both the passing and rushing game, which makes him near match-up proof.
  5. Ezekiel Elliott (RB) – He is clearly a top 1-3RB right now in fantasy. However, rookies can often times hit a rookie wall near Week 11 or 12. Sometimes they slow, then pick things back up, so I am not predicting a late-season flop, but it just has me cautious is all. The guy is the next Adrian Peterson, especially behind that Dallas offensive line!
  6. Melvin Gordon (RB) – He was in my Top 10 Bold Predictions for a reason — his rise was no surprise to SleeperU Subscribers, so don’t expect me to doubt Gordon moving forward. He is a top 1-5RB for Weeks 10-16, and has that same kind of value in dynasty. Beast.
  7. Odell Beckham (WR) – Always capable of disappointing, getting benched for a quarter due to his distractive ways, but he is always capable of 100 yards and 2TDs on any given Sunday. His upside makes him a top 2-6 overall player moving forward. He has the same kind of dynasty appeal.
  8. Tom Brady (QB) – Call this high if you want, but he is playing on pace for 5,276 yards and 48TDs through his four games played. This kind of production can carry you through the playoffs and win you a title. He is arguably worth a top 5-7 overall rank.
  9. Aj Green (WR) – Even without TDs (3 on the year), he is on pace for 118 receptions for 1,792 yards. Imagine if he starts pulling in touchdowns?
  10. Demarco Murray (RB) – There is risk he breaks down a bit, as he was extremely overworked in Dallas and aggressively runs the football; however, he continues to put up top 5RB stats and with Henry banged up, he will be leaned on big-time in the coming weeks. If you don’t own Henry for some reason, now is the time to trade for him as he is hurt. Secure that duo and you have yourself a top 5RB moving forward even if injury strikes Murray.
  11. Rob Gronkowski (TE) – Over the last four games, which is really when he started playing full-time again this year, he is averaging 118 yards per game and has 3TDs in those four weeks. That’s a pace of near 1,800/12TDs if he keeps that pace going. With he and Brady missing the first part of the season, both are well rested in a sense, don’t be shocked if Brady and Gronk go nuts all the way through Week 16.
  12. Jay Ajayi (RB) – Ajayi is averaging 176 rushing yards and 1.33TD over the last three games.. now, one would be nuts to expect him to to continue that three-game pace all year, it’s NOT going to happen, but for fun, his 16-game stats if you stretched out those three games = 2,816 and 21TDs. Those stats should at least tell you that Miami is ready to feed him, and Dolphins coach Adam Gase said he is “never going to go away” from Jay Ajayi. This is amazing news and it means he is a threat to rush for 100 yards and 1TD per game moving forward. His dynasty value will be a fun topic of discussion heading into 2017. Start talking about it now on our forums.

The rest…

Round Two

    13. Drew Brees (QB) – Top five overall capable.
    14. Aaron Rodgers (QB) – Top five overall capable.
    15. Amari Cooper (WR) – A top 3-6WR that will occasionally go missing, which has him ranking here. But, at season’s end, don’t be shocked if he is in the top 3-5 overall, and that was on our Bold Predictions!
    16. Deandre Hopkins (WR) – He could keep disappointing, but I predict he has a big Weeks 10-16 and will be first-round worthy value wise (in hindsight) from Weeks 10-16.
    17. Mike Evans (WR) – He has great value overall right here, as he can be a top 5-10 overall talent.
    18. Matt Ryan (QB) – I’m sold for the remainder of this year, but I know some will still have him ranked higher and call this too low. I still take Brees, Rodgers and Brady over him, but it can be argued!
    19. Devonta Freeman (RB) – Top 5RB capable with a touch of usage risk. If you have Coleman, you’re protected in some ways, but they both still play. His upside makes him nice value here and his risk really isn’t too bad, as even sharing carries he produces this kind of value.
    20. Andrew Luck (QB) – He is having an underrated top 3-4QB season, and with Moncrief back, expect things to get even better.
    21. Spencer Ware (RB) – This could be the best value of these later 2nd-round picks. Future concussions is a concern, which is why I think he falls this far, but the risk is low at about this range, and his upside is top 4-7 for rushers, which is huge.
    22. Jordy Nelson (WR) – Great value. This guy has top 5WR upside, but I think some still fear some inconsistency. I do not. I think he is rock-solid moving forward.
    23. Dez Bryant (WR) – This is still high-risk given his injury concerns, but this value still has high-reward. He either saves or breaks many seasons moving forward.
    24. Todd Gurley (RB) – Will he rebound? Will he at least earn this kind of value on a disappointing Weeks 10-16? I say yes, and so to me, this is low-risk/high-reward. I just can’t say with great confidence that he will for sure outperform this draft slot, but my gut tells me there is a high likelihood that he returns to at least top 5-10RB status in the coming weeks.

Round Three

    25. Lamar Miller (RB) – This guy has top 5RB ability, but his situations have been awful, but in Miami, and now in Houston. He needs carries. All runners do. His usage is the only concern, but the concern is real, which is why he ranks this low (with upside).
    26. Derek Carr (QB) – Top 5QB capable.
    27. Kelvin Benjamin (WR) – Top 10WR upside the rest of the way!
    28. Jordan Howard (RB) – The risk is baked in here, as he has top 10RB appeal moving forward.
    29. Matt Forte (RB) – Injury risk makes this about right.
    30. Allen Robinson (WR) – I like the low-risk here that comes with upside to rebound to form.
    31. Doug Martin (RB) – Decent value, although, I do worry about him staying healthy. Is he rushing back?
    32. Brandin Cooks (WR) – Safe value for a guy capable of top 10-14WR numbers, and the ability to drop 100/2TDs once in a while.
    33. Lesean Mccoy (RB) – The risk is low here, just make sure you buy-low on Gillislee now that McCoy is back.
    34. Ty Hilton (WR) – Strong value here with not too much risk. He could truly outperform this slot.
    35. Alshon Jeffery (WR) – With Cutler healthy, he can easily produce WR2 numbers and occasionally dance with the WR1s.
    36. Demaryius Thomas (WR)

Round Four

    37. Ben Roethlisberger (QB) – Top 5QB capable.
    38. Christine Michael (RB) – Usage is the only issue. He isn’t busting based on performance. It’s all lack of carries, which could continue, but the risk is built in right here.
    39. Legarrette Blount (RB) – Solid value.
    40. Marvin Jones (WR) – After a huge start, he has slumped in his past three games. This is a great buy-low area.
    41. Greg Olsen (TE) – Solid.
    42. Jordan Reed (TE) – Solid.
    43. Jarvis Landry (WR) – He could be used more, says the coaching staff. We shall see. If used right, he’d be a top 10WR. It’s all about usage.
    44. Cam Newton (QB) – He still has good upside here.
    45. Randall Cobb (WR) – Decent value.
    46. Philip Rivers (QB) – Solid.
    47. Devontae Booker (RB) – Some risk here, sure, but also tremendous upside.
    48. Larry Fitzgerald (WR) – Consistent.