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Kittle value when Garopolo returns?

I wonder if Kittle will retain his "top 3 value" among tight ends when Garopolo returns. Does anyone have any insight on Kittle's usage when JG was the QB? I would love to add him in our "Rookie/Free Agent" draft in August. He was not rostered during the season except as an "IR Replacment" in our league. Thus he will be available.

QB:Ben Rothlisberger, Marcus Mariota and  Pat Mahomes

RB: Zeke Elliott, Frank Gore,  Kareem Hunt, Dalvin Cook and Marlon Mack 

WR Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham Jr., Donte Moncrief, Josh Doctson, Chris Hogan, John Ross and Christian Kirk and Antonio Callaway;   

TE: Jordan Reed and Evan Engram

K:  Chris Boswell and Nick Novak

D:  Bengals and Rams


Start: QB, (2) RB, (2) WR, TE, K and D.

PPR

Comments

  • I believe he definitely stays as a top-3 TE. Go get him without hesitation.

  • I believe he definitely stays as a top-3 TE. Go get him without hesitation.

    I agree. With Jimmy G Kittle was already becoming a favorite target.
    Winning Fantasy Football Championships is easier without pants on. Underwear is optional.
  • Hawk12Hawk12 Posts: 3,227
    I don;t think its dependent on the QB, he was good under both.... This is a case of NO healthy WRs and the only decent option to throw to. SF was down to the 4th string RB also - massive Kittle decline is coming....

    See Evan Emgram if you need any further evidence. He was an absolute monster and after that great year I said it then what I'm saying now - when the team gets healthy or better WRs, the TE will drop off. This is force fed volume production. If you own Kittle, while I agree he is very good - there is no better time to sell him than before SF signs a great WR and steals a large amount of his target share.

    in 2017 Engram played 80% of the snaps and ran routes on 76% of the plays he was in for... he had 115 targets and was 20% of the teams target share. 2018, those numbers dropped due to WRs getting healthy and him missing games, but be honest, he was not where near the guy he was in 2017 when he played - 2018 played 68% of snaps, ran a route on 68% of those plays, had 68 targets and was 16% of the teams target share when healthy.

    Kittle in 2018 - played 94% of snaps (a crazy amount that will not hold up), ran routes on 72% of those plays (also not sustainable), 135 targets (also declining per the two previous numbers declining), and a target share of 26.4%


    Drop Kittles plays to 80%, that alone drops his targets to 115 - drop his route percentage to 65% that'll drop his targets to 100ish - drop his target share to 20% (still very high as it should be) will drop his targets again all the way down to 85-90.

    Sustaining his 10.2 yards per target - sustaining his catch rate of 65% - his statistical production would be roughly...... 600 yards, TD are tough to predict like this, so keep it high at 8-10.

    Kittle PPR league 2019 production I'm estimating at roughly 600, 9TDs, 62 rec = 176 points in PPR....


    That is a statistical analysis, I'm not saying he isn't talented - he is. I'm saying anything other than expecting regression after this year with no other decent weapons on offense is not realistic.
  • Great breakdown as usual @Hawk12

  • Hawk12Hawk12 Posts: 3,227

    Great breakdown as usual @Hawk12

    thx man, this is what the off season is for..... I owned ZERO shares of Evan Engram in 2018 as regression was an obvious to me. At his cost, in no league was I willing to spend what it took, and I sold him in the two D leagues I had owned him in.


    I would recommend the same for Kittle owners NOW. Even to the point of selling him now and buyinh him back this time next year because he is a talented player. TEs take time to develop and he was force fed this year manufacturing some inflated stats, IMO.


    I won't own Kittle in 2019 anywhere because his price will be moee than his production.
  • Doobie_SnacksDoobie_Snacks Posts: 570
    edited January 23
    Hawk12 said:

    I don;t think its dependent on the QB, he was good under both.... This is a case of NO healthy WRs and the only decent option to throw to. SF was down to the 4th string RB also - massive Kittle decline is coming....

    See Evan Emgram if you need any further evidence. He was an absolute monster and after that great year I said it then what I'm saying now - when the team gets healthy or better WRs, the TE will drop off. This is force fed volume production. If you own Kittle, while I agree he is very good - there is no better time to sell him than before SF signs a great WR and steals a large amount of his target share.

    in 2017 Engram played 80% of the snaps and ran routes on 76% of the plays he was in for... he had 115 targets and was 20% of the teams target share. 2018, those numbers dropped due to WRs getting healthy and him missing games, but be honest, he was not where near the guy he was in 2017 when he played - 2018 played 68% of snaps, ran a route on 68% of those plays, had 68 targets and was 16% of the teams target share when healthy.

    Kittle in 2018 - played 94% of snaps (a crazy amount that will not hold up), ran routes on 72% of those plays (also not sustainable), 135 targets (also declining per the two previous numbers declining), and a target share of 26.4%


    Drop Kittles plays to 80%, that alone drops his targets to 115 - drop his route percentage to 65% that'll drop his targets to 100ish - drop his target share to 20% (still very high as it should be) will drop his targets again all the way down to 85-90.

    Sustaining his 10.2 yards per target - sustaining his catch rate of 65% - his statistical production would be roughly...... 600 yards, TD are tough to predict like this, so keep it high at 8-10.

    Kittle PPR league 2019 production I'm estimating at roughly 600, 9TDs, 62 rec = 176 points in PPR....


    That is a statistical analysis, I'm not saying he isn't talented - he is. I'm saying anything other than expecting regression after this year with no other decent weapons on offense is not realistic.

    Even if he totals 176 PPR points. He would have been the #5 TE down from #3 this season. I'll gladly take that from the position that was a wasteland this year.

    2 years ago 176 points make him #4 TE in 2017 season.

    Winning Fantasy Football Championships is easier without pants on. Underwear is optional.
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