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2017 Bold Predictions Review (with Hawk’s Take on each prediction)

Hawk12 Posts: 2,334
edited December 7 in Bold Predictions
1.     
Tom Brady and Gronk will have career years,
Brady 40-50 TDs, Gronk 12-15 TDs – Brady will throw for monster yardage and
destroy expectations, Gronk will have 1,200+ yards

Hawk’s Take – Miss….
Over drafting these two hurt this year as both performed about or under average
for themselves, and neither came anywhere near the production to warrant
reaching for both this year.   I loved
both calls myself, but neither panned out as Smitty and I saw this season going
for the NEP.

Regular Season end positional rank – Brady #4 QB
(though over weeks 8-13 he is ranked #10 during that span), Gronk #2 TE and
suspended for Wild Card FF weekend… 

Comments

  • Hawk12 Posts: 2,334

    1.     2. Stashing Derrick Henry and Tevin Coleman will
    help win leagues on 2017!

    Hawk’s Take – Solid
    Swing and a half hit
    - One out of Two, both have been low producers, but
    Tevin Coleman filled in nicely for a few weeks while Freeman way out.  I support the call, but it just didn’t work
    out the way Smitty and I saw it might if either got the change to take the
    reigns and run away with the bell cow back opportunity – and I do not
    understand why at least Derrick Henry didn’t get the reigns, he more than
    outperformed Demarco Murray all year. 
    Sometimes a coach can hurt a FF player as much as an injury?!?

    Regular Season end positional rank – Henry #39 RB, Coleman
    #15 RB

  • Hawk12 Posts: 2,334

    1.      3. Jay Ajayi will produce top 5 numbers in 2017!

    Hawk’s Take – Huge
    miss…
    Ajayi has skill set to be great, but Miami had a horrible o-line and
    their QB situation was deplorable.  So
    much so that Ajayi was moved to Philly just before the trade deadline, and he
    took a few weeks to adjust to the new offense, and became part of a RBBC.  Meanwhile Kenyon Drake performed nicely after
    Ajayi was traded.  This call may be a year
    early if Bount leaves and Ajayi has a great opportunity in front of him in
    Philly

    Regular Season end positional rank – RB#36

  • Hawk12 Posts: 2,334

    1.      4. Devonte Freeman / Tevin Coleman together are
    equal to the 1.1

    Hawk’s Take – Mostly
    a Miss…
    Freeman was OK this year, and was out for most of week 10, and week
    11 and 12 entirely.  Adding in Coleman’s
    production on those weeks; that puts this duo at 173.6 PPR points through week
    13, regular season FF.  Devante Freeman
    and the Falcons were not the same offense as in years before, in big part to
    the OC (Kyle Shanahan) leaving for St. Louis and despite running the same
    system, the new OC (Sarkisian) just could not set up plays and big chunks of
    yardage as in prior years… I did not agree with this call, but could certainly
    see why it was made. As in recent years, Atlanta seemed unstoppable.

    Regular Season end positional rank – Combined RB# 11

  • Hawk12 Posts: 2,334

    1.      5. Adrian Peterson will be a top 5 RB in 2017

    Hawk’s Take – Wasted
    Pick…
    AP is old, and was not even close the other RBs on the roster in
    NO.  He actually slowed down NO offense
    and they took off like the Space Shuttle the game after AP was traded.  I love AP as much as any of the FF players
    for the last decade, and also liked this pick and stuck my neck out in a few
    mid-late picks in drafts…. But he has finally fallen off the cliff in FF.  This call should not have cost you much in
    redraft or dynasty if you traded for AP, so not much lost on a sleeper swing
    for the fences here.  Hope you find
    happiness in retirement AP!  You had a
    great career.

    Regular Season end positional rank – RB# 47

  • Hawk12 Posts: 2,334

    1.      6. Martavus Bryant will flirt with top 12WR numbers
    in 2017

    Hawk’s Take – Wasted
    Pick…
    Martavus showed why he was suspended and that he had not matured as
    some had hoped he would.  He has
    exceptional talent, but does not seem to have the ability or desire to focus said
    talent.  He even Twittered his way to the
    bench this year… Worth the pick for his upside potential, but it was a wasted
    one in hindsight.

    Regular Season end positional rank – WR# 59

  • Hawk12 Posts: 2,334

    1.      7. Alvin Kamara Has is a gem and has top 8-12 RB
    upside for the future!

    Hawk’s Take –Home
    Run!
       This is why we all love
    Smitty. He has historically made some of the best deeper sleeper calls in the
    business – for years.  Written up as “’if
    injuries happen - kinda redraft call”. 
    Well it wasn’t injury but a trade of AP & Boom, RB1 ridiculous
    production ever since!  Another quote
    direct from the write up on August 20th 2017: “my job is to call out
    players when I see elite talent.  This
    kid has it.”  No doubt about this one, he
    will win some leagues outright with a deep middle round- late flyer pick in
    Kamara!!   

    This pick rivals the Michael Turner and Arian Foster Bold
    Predictions of years past, and has the potential to have all of us winning
    dynasty leagues for years!!!

    Regular Season end positional rank – RB# 3 

  • Hawk12 Posts: 2,334

    1.      8. Marlon Mack is a gem and had top 8-12RB upside
    for the future.

    Hawk’s Take – TBD
    – as this was written up as more of a dynasty call, it is still undecided as of
    yet.  For some loyalty reason the Colts
    are still handing it off to 34 year old Frank Gore.  For the record, Gore is one of my personal
    all time favorite FF RBs, after having had two ACLs repaired while at Miami,
    and being team captain his Jr and Sr. years there despite not even playing his
    Jr. year.  He was so beloved for his work
    ethic and rehab ability at Miami, I can see why the Colts have kept feeding old
    man Frank well past his prime.   But it’s
    time to move on in 2018, and this call may be a year too early, as many of
    Smitty’s picks have been in years past – see Lamar Miller in 2013 I believe…
    Took till the next year, but the prediction paid off.  Same could happen here.

    Regular Season end positional rank – RB# 52, with only 69
    carries through week 13… 

  • Hawk12 Posts: 2,334

    1.     9.  Mike Gillislee / James White will have a top
    5-10RB season in 2017 and score 10+ TDs

    Hawk’s Take – Solid
    Swing and a half hit
    – The write up said to take Gillislee, and cuff James
    White to him - it was a NEP RB that had a solid season, just Gillislee. It was
    White that closed out the season as a solid PPR RB.

    Regular Season end positional rank – RB# 23 for White, RB# Gillislee
    RB#66

  • Hawk12 Posts: 2,334
    edited December 7

    1.     10.  Kenny Golladay is going to be a star and
    potential WR1

    Hawk’s Take – TBD The write up says “Golladay has a real shot to develop into the Loin’s future
    WR1”.  This is also more of a dynasty
    call, and a bit too early to find out as Kenny G was injured a bit of the
    season and that slowed his development. 
    But he is pulling in almost 20ypc. 
    See above about Marlon Mack, a year early IMO.

    Regular Season end positional rank – WR# 83

  • Hawk12 Posts: 2,334

    1.      11. Amari Cooper will be a top 3-6 WR for 2017

    Hawk’s Take – Wasted
    Pick…
      I loved this call, myself, and
    have Cooper in quite a few dynasty leagues and he has not lived up to
    expectations since his rookie year.  He’s
    been outplayed by Crabtree when Crabs was healthy, and then Coop got his bell
    rung and sidelined when it counted most – but by then he should be on your
    benches anyway…   Was a far less than
    anticipated season for Amari with Carr looking so good last year.  I do not understand why he has not lived up
    to his potential one bit.  Here’s to
    thinking (probably more hoping) that Coop finally lives up to expectations in
    2018

    Regular Season end positional rank – WR# 36

  • Hawk12 Posts: 2,334

    1.      12. Leonard Fournette and Dalvin Cook will be top
    12RBs now, one will be a top 1-5 in 2017

    Hawk’s Take – Solid
    Hit - Double down the right field line!
      
    Great call, and if Davlin had not blown his ACL this would have been a
    fantastic double win your league move right here.   I loved this call also, Fournette has been a
    beast, missed a few games due to wear and tear on that ankle again (which might
    be a long term nagging issue for his entire career), and Dalvin was off to a
    fantastic start.  Both look to be
    excellent RBs in dynasty, great double call Smitty!

    Regular Season end positional rank – Fournette RB# 10
    despite missing 2 games, Dalvin RB# 9 if you look at PPG in PPR….   

  • Hawk12 Posts: 2,334

    (Alternate Calls - listed each below as well)

  • Hawk12 Posts: 2,334

    1.      13. DeAndre Hopkins will be a top 1-5WR in 2017

    Hawk’s Take – Home
    Run!
       Huge hit here, as DHop has
    been fantastic with and still very good without Watson.  He’s a raw talent that just needs some looks
    and can take it home even with a crappy QB. 
    Look out for this guy with Watson back in 2018, might finally give
    Antonio a run for the #1WR spot

    Regular Season end positional rank – WR#2, only to Antonio,
    and well ahead of WR#3

  • Hawk12 Posts: 2,334

    -       
    Jarvis Landry will finally become  a top 5-7 fantasy WR

    Hawk’s Take – Close to
    a Home Run, let’s call it an off the fence triple!
     Landry was a real solid PPR WR for the regular
    FF season, and despite terrible QB play with Cutler and a worse O-line; Landry
    consistently put up solid PPR numbers.  I
    have to admit, I was surprised he did so well and sold him in a number of
    leagues.  3rd in receptions
    behind Fitz and AB – that’s amazing. 
    Good call Smitty!

    Regular Season end positional rank – WR#9 in PPR   

  • Hawk12 Posts: 2,334
      -       
    Corey Coleman will become a top 12-14WR in 2017

    Hawk’s Take – Swing
    and a miss
    .  As written up, “he had
    Odell Beckham-like talent and hands, and the ONLY thing truly holding him back
    is his current QB situation”.  Well that
    QB situation was deplorable and the Browns once again showed they have made
    some major mistakes drafting (or not drafting more appropriately) a QB in
    recent years.  Maybe they turn that
    around in 2018 with a bumper crop of QB rookie talent to choose from coming in
    2018.  Add that to Coleman missing 6
    games himself, though it really wouldn’t have mattered much IMO if he was
    playing.  His best game of the 13 week
    regular FF season was week 1, with 69 yards & he never caught more than 50
    again on the season….  He was worth a
    flyer, and probably did not cost more than that, so no big loss taking a late
    swing for the fences here.

    Regular Season end positional rank – WR#98 

  • Hawk12 Posts: 2,334

    Hawk’s Overall
    Summary

    THRE BIG HITS!

    Two half way solid predictions

    That’ll add up to 4
    out of 12 = 25% hit rate this year.

    Plus Two great calls made of the three on the Alternate
    list, coulda changed this to a fantastic season had DHop and Landry been
    swapped with any two of the missed predictions above… 6 of 12 woulda been an
    epic year, and 6 of 15 is still pretty darn good.

    Overall, Smitty had what I would call somewhat down year
    sticking to the primary Bold Prediction list, compared to the very high bar he
    has historically set.  Missed on quite a
    few bold predictions.  Buuuut, he made
    one of the very best calls he’s made over the years IMO! 

    Calls like the Alvin Kamara prediction being made before
    anyone was very high on him are why we all follow him.  Smitty has historically made some big Bold
    Predictions that have hit so big they flat out won leagues for his
    flowers.  While 2017 was a lower than
    normal hit percentage overall, Alvin was one of those calls that makes this
    list so ridiculously popular.

    I can’t wait to see his 2018 picks, debate them, and draft
    many of them again next year.  Best part
    is current members can already get a sneak peek at his first 2018 Bold Prediction
    now!

  • calcomcalcom Posts: 116
    Nice take Hawk. Good work
  • SmittySmitty Posts: 5,355
    Nice work. I'm all for the accountability. While Kamara and Hopkins did do well, it was a year full of craziness.

    I'll get more next year like last year!


    - Smitty
    SleeperU.com
  • Looking forward to more bold calls with great insight in 2018!
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