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Updated 2017 Rookie-Only Mock Draft (Fantasy Football)

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When to Ignore ADP?

smitty fantasy football advice

If you are anything close to being a serious fantasy football owner, you know all about ADP (Average Draft Position) Data, which is essentially compiled mock draft data that suggests where, on average, players are typically getting drafted.

I am a HUGE believer in using ADP Data to your advantage. In fact, I consider it one of the most important aspects of fantasy football… if you don’t use Average Draft Position rankings properly when you have your original draft, or when you factor in trade values, you will never ‘get ahead’ and acquire that impossible-type team. That’s the goal, right? To have a team that others say out loud, “how the heck did he get that team?”

So, now to the fun part..

Question: When should one ignore ADP Data?

Answer: Every situation is uniquely different. There is no for sure answer.

So, taking a current average of current ADPs out there on the Web (as of 4/12/2017), I will identify players I would Significantly Reach For, in a sense ignoring ADPs. I will also speak to the flip side, players I feel are NOT worth their going ADP rank. Note: All other players not identified below should be attained at, or very near, their going ADP rank, or I have no real opinion regarding their current ADP.

ADP Data as of 4/12/2017

4/12/17: This Mock Draft Data was compiled using several 2017 ADPs

#PlayerPosTmComment About ADP
1David JohnsonRBARI Use ADP When Drafting
2Ezekiel ElliottRBDAL Use ADP When Drafting
3LeVeon BellRBPIT Use ADP When Drafting
4Antonio BrownWRPIT Use ADP When Drafting
5Odell Beckham JrWRNYG Use ADP When Drafting
6Julio JonesWRATL Use ADP When Drafting
7LeSean McCoyRBBUFCAUTION: While LeSean McCoy is very capable of being a top 7 overall player in 2017, he is also at that age in his career where he could drop off the face of the earth due to injury. He is turning 29 before the 2017 season begins, he has a long injury history with knees/legs, and he has eight starting seasons in the rear view, which is a TON for an NFL rusher. To put that into perspective, Priest Holmes only had three full starting seasons before he got injured and never returned to form (and only played 5 seasons prior to getting hurt)... Larry Johnson broke down during his fifth NFL seasons, with only two monster starter campaigns... Shaun Alexander, one of the best fantasy running backs ever, was able to only last five seasons as a monster starter in the NFL, as he broke down during his sixth NFL season. McCoy's eight seasons is a grip, and while he could have one more elite year left, my advice is to let someone else take the chance at top 7 overall value! Avoid at ADP value of 5-9 overall!
8Melvin GordonRBSD Use ADP When Drafting
9Mike EvansWRTB Use ADP When Drafting
10Jordan HowardRBCHICAUTION: I like Jordan Howard a lot, however, to be a top 10 overall pick in fantasy football, a player, to me, needs to feel more for sure and have less questions surrounding their QB situation (Mike Glennon) and entire passing game (now without any WR but Cameron Meredith and Kevin White). I'm sorry, but that smells like disappointment from a team standpoint and moving the chains standpoint. I like Howard, and I'd love to own him as a late second-round type talent, but that's not going to happen in any league/draft... I'll pass at anywhere near 8-12 overall ADP!
11A.J. GreenWRCIN Use ADP When Drafting
12DeMarco MurrayRBTENCAUTION: First off, I still like owning both DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry, so if you can own both for sure, I don't mind this ADP value too much. I think there are safer ways to go (and you can still draft just Henry as a secret weapon), but I don't mind this value IF you have the duo. If you do not have the duo, in dynasty or redraft, I think this is dangerous value (top 12) for DeMarco drafters/owners. In redraft, it's madness if you don't absolutely reach for Henry, but at 5.11 ADP, Henry is looking like he will cost a boatload. That's your fifth-drafted player right there. My advice this year, in redraft, is to avoid DeMarco Murray at top 12 overall value... in order to handcuff him to Henry, it's too costly, as you have to reach past 5.11 to ensure you get both, and even 5.11 feels nuts, so reaching even higher to be certain, no thanks... In dynasty, sell-high on DeMarco if possible.
13Jordy NelsonWRGB Use ADP When Drafting
14Jay AjayiRBMIA Use ADP When Drafting
15Devonta FreemanRBATL Use ADP When Drafting
16Todd GurleyRBLASLEEPER ALERT: In redraft or dynasty, Todd Gurley looks to have all risk built into his ADP/trade value. This is his floor, but I consistently see him at the 14-16 overall range. Steal! I reach even up to pick 12 overall and I buy all day! He could struggle if he gets no offensive support, but he can also be the No. 1 overall player in fantasy football again! Buy! Draft!
17Dez BryantWRDAL Use ADP When Drafting
18Michael ThomasWRNOCAUTION: I like Michael Thomas, but wow, this is costly. I'm almost shocked that fantasy owners are willing to draft him ahead of players like DeAndre Hopkins, Amari Cooper, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. I get it, he is in a great spot, but he still has lots of risk, and to make him your second-drafted player in redraft? In dynasty, if I own him, I sell-high, because his dynasty value is easily as high as this. At least. That's a great sell-high opportunity if you ask me, because even if I'm wrong and he does workout and be this good, you're selling high, so you should get something back that will too be awesome, thus you lose nothing by trading him into a likely safer option.
19T.Y. HiltonWRIND Use ADP When Drafting
20Lamar MillerRBHOU Use ADP When Drafting
21Aaron RodgersQBGBSLEEPER ALERT: I always suggest ignoring ADP a little when it comes to the top 1-3QBs, and that doesn't change entering 2017. However, this ADP feels a touch off when compared to what is likely to happen in most drafts.
So, assuming Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Tom Brady all fall to about 25 overall, I am fine with drafting any of the three in the top 25-36... I reach for those big guns, as any one of them can be the number one overall scorer in fantasy.
22Amari CooperWROAKSLEEPER ALERT: Like DeAndre Hopkins below, this is "win a league" type stuff if Amari Cooper becomes what I think he will become. Sure, he busted in 2016, but he is entering his third NFL seasons, sometimes WRs need 2 full played seasons before they explode. Cooper has already shown me flashes of being a top 5WR in fantasy. I am all in. I'm buying low in dynasty at this value and slightly higher, and I have no worries drafting him in redraft at this value, and would reach a few slots if needed.
23Mark IngramRBNO Use ADP When Drafting
24Carlos HydeRBSF Use ADP When Drafting
25Rob GronkowskiTENE Use ADP When Drafting
26DeAndre HopkinsWRHOUSLEEPER ALERT: Whenever you have a player ranking outside of the second-round, meaning you can draft him, or trade for him, at value equal to your third-best player, yet he has top 1-5 potential at his position, that's what you call 'win a league' value. Hopkins may have risk, and he certainly busted last year, at least given his draft value... however, I have zero concerns about his talent or future, he just had a bad situation last year. The risk is his situation does not improve, but that's a risk that is now built into 24-26 overall value. Don't even worry about reaching 5-6 picks above this value for Hopkins, he's easily worth a top 18-22 overall selection on draft day, and I'd easily trade for him at that value in dynasty. Easily!
27CJ AndersonRBDENCAUTION: I don't even understand this ADP. I wouldn't touch CJ even in the next round let alone this 27th overall range. Avoid and do not use ADP.
28Brandin CooksWRNE Use ADP When Drafting
29Allen RobinsonWRJAC Use ADP When Drafting
30Spencer WareRBSEA Use ADP When Drafting
31Davante AdamsWRGB Use ADP When Drafting
32Tom BradyQBNESLEEPER ALERT: See Aaron Rodgers comment above!
33Doug BaldwinWRSEA Use ADP When Drafting
34Latavius MurrayRBMIN Use ADP When Drafting
35Tyreek HillWRKC Use ADP When Drafting
36Keenan AllenWRSD Use ADP When Drafting
37Adrian PetersonRBMIN Use ADP When Drafting
38Alshon JefferyWRPHISLEEPER ALERT: Is Alshon Jeffery an injury risk? Yes, absolutely. Is that built into 38 overall value? Yes, without question. I like this value, as he still has top 7-10WR appeal in my opinion.
39Drew BreesQBNOSLEEPER ALERT: See Aaron Rodgers comment above!
40Sammy WatkinsWRBUF Use ADP When Drafting
44Demaryius ThomasWRDEN Use ADP When Drafting
41LeGarrette BlountRBNE Use ADP When Drafting
42Travis KelceTEKC Use ADP When Drafting
43Tevin ColemanRBATL Use ADP When Drafting
45Eddie LacyRBSEA Use ADP When Drafting
46Thomas RawlsRBSEA Use ADP When Drafting
47Michael CrabtreeWROAK Use ADP When Drafting
48Andrew LuckQBIND Use ADP When Drafting
49Julian EdelmanWRNE Use ADP When Drafting
50Jordan ReedTEWAS Use ADP When Drafting
51Isaiah CrowellRBCLE Use ADP When Drafting
52Jeremy HillRBCIN Use ADP When Drafting
53Greg OlsenTECAR Use ADP When Drafting
54Jarvis LandryWRMIA Use ADP When Drafting
62Derek CarrQBOAK Use ADP When Drafting
55Matt RyanQBATL Use ADP When Drafting
56Doug MartinRBTB Use ADP When Drafting
61Derrick HenryRBTEN Use ADP When Drafting
57Brandon MarshallWRNYG Use ADP When Drafting
58Kelvin BenjaminWRCAR Use ADP When Drafting
59Tyler EifertTECIN Use ADP When Drafting
60Jamaal CharlesRBKC Use ADP When Drafting
63Larry FitzgeraldWRARI Use ADP When Drafting
64Bilal PowellRBNYJ Use ADP When Drafting
65Martavis BryantWRPITSLEEPER ALERT: Reaching about 5-6 picks for Bryant might be worth it in 2017. I get it, he has failed us all thus far, but he is just so talented. If he stays on the field, he could flirt with top 25 overall value. Draft in redraft and buy-low in dynasty if possible!
66Terrelle PryorWRWAS Use ADP When Drafting
67Jimmy GrahamTESEA Use ADP When Drafting
68Frank GoreRBIND Use ADP When Drafting
69Cam NewtonQBCAR Use ADP When Drafting
70Delanie WalkerTETEN Use ADP When Drafting
71Jonathan StewartRBCAR Use ADP When Drafting
72Donte MoncriefWRIND Use ADP When Drafting
73Ty MontgomeryWRGB Use ADP When Drafting
74Dak PrescottQBDAL Use ADP When Drafting
75Kenneth DixonRBBAL Use ADP When Drafting
76Emmanuel SandersWRDEN Use ADP When Drafting
77Russell WilsonQBSEA Use ADP When Drafting
78Matt ForteRBNYJ Use ADP When Drafting
79Hunter HenryTESD Use ADP When Drafting
80Rob KelleyRBWAS Use ADP When Drafting
81Golden TateWRDET Use ADP When Drafting
82Ameer AbdullahRBDET Use ADP When Drafting
83Ben RoethlisbergerQBPIT Use ADP When Drafting
84Rishard MatthewsWRTEN Use ADP When Drafting
85Paul PerkinsRBNYG Use ADP When Drafting
86Dion LewisRBNE Use ADP When Drafting
87Kyle RudolphTEMIN Use ADP When Drafting
88Kirk CousinsQBWAS Use ADP When Drafting
89Jamison CrowderWRWAS Use ADP When Drafting
90CJ ProsiseRBSEA Use ADP When Drafting
91Randall CobbWRGB Use ADP When Drafting
92Giovani BernardRBCIN Use ADP When Drafting
93DeSean JacksonWRTB Use ADP When Drafting
94Danny WoodheadRBBAL Use ADP When Drafting
95Stefon DiggsWRMIN Use ADP When Drafting
96Eric DeckerWRNYJ Use ADP When Drafting
97Kansas City DefenseDEFKC Use ADP When Drafting
98Theo RiddickRBDET Use ADP When Drafting
99Marcus MariotaQBTEN Use ADP When Drafting
100Mike GillisleeRBBUF Use ADP When Drafting
101Cameron BrateTETB Use ADP When Drafting
102Denver DefenseDEFDEN Use ADP When Drafting
103Seattle DefenseDEFSEA Use ADP When Drafting
104Jacquizz RodgersRBCHI Use ADP When Drafting
105Corey ColemanWRCLE Use ADP When Drafting
106Zach ErtzTEPHI Use ADP When Drafting
107Jameis WinstonQBTB Use ADP When Drafting
108Sterling ShepardWRNYG Use ADP When Drafting
109DeVante ParkerWRMIA Use ADP When Drafting
110Jordan MatthewsWRPHI Use ADP When Drafting
111Matthew StaffordQBDET Use ADP When Drafting
112Ryan MathewsRBPHI Use ADP When Drafting
113Houston DefenseDEFHOU Use ADP When Drafting
114Jeremy MaclinWRKC Use ADP When Drafting
115Minnesota DefenseDEFMIN Use ADP When Drafting
116Martellus BennettTEGB Use ADP When Drafting
117Willie SneadWRNO Use ADP When Drafting
118Philip RiversQBSD Use ADP When Drafting
119Chris IvoryRBJAC Use ADP When Drafting
120Eli ManningQBNYG Use ADP When Drafting
121Kevin WhiteWRCHI Use ADP When Drafting
122New England DefenseDEFNE Use ADP When Drafting
123DeAngelo WilliamsRBPIT Use ADP When Drafting
124Arizona DefenseDEFARI Use ADP When Drafting
125Devontae BookerRBDEN Use ADP When Drafting

Updated 2017 Rookie-Only Mock Draft (Fantasy Football)

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2017 Rookie Mock Draft with Analysis (March Edition)

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Early 2017 Fantasy Football Mock Draft

smitty fantasy football advice

Below is our Early 2017 Fantasy Football Mock Draft (Dynasty/PPR), which took place on our fantasy football forums. So, this draft is not my set of 2017 rankings, it is the results from said draft, which has well over a dozen participants taking turns tossing out names. I have, however, added my commentary to each pick. Also, keep in mind, the draft is still on going, so check back for updates on both the draft results and commentary that will be attached to each pick.

Mock Draft 2017 (Dynasty)

Round One

1.01 – Antonio Brown – In a PPR draft, this is still very, very arguable. Although, if I’m drafting, lock me in for one of Zeke Elliott, LeVeon Bell or David Johnson, as the every-down runner is back in the spotlight and having one of those studs gives any team a huge, huge advantage.
1.02 – Ezekiel Elliott – As stated above, having one of the big three rushers gives you a monster advantage, and I draft one of the big three rushers if I hold a top three pick this year (in any draft/format).
1.03 – LeVeon Bell – See above two comments.
1.04 – David Johnson – See above comments.
1.05 – Odell Beckham Jr. – I like this pick, however, I think expecting some missed games and distractions is now a given. Still, that could be 1-2 games, and he can still be the top-scoring player during any given week. He deserves this ranking, but don’t load up on ODB in all your leagues, because he has medium risk to go along with his huge upside.
1.06 – Julio Jones – Safe and steady. This is great value despite getting up there a touch in age.
1.07 – Mike Evans – This may seem high or low to some, it just depends on your league/style. This kid easily has this kind of upside. He comes with some injury risk, but he can earn this value with 1-2 missed games. Easy.
1.08 – Amari Cooper – This is a bit high to some, and I myself would not draft Coop this high. But, I say that only because he should fall well into the middle of the second round in many drafts. I would not reach this high because he does come with some risk, and the value in drafting/owning Coop moving forward into 2017 is in the fact that he is doubted in a major way. If you don’t own him in an existing dynasty league, trade for him at high-end WR2-type value. He can sometimes be had there! Attack! He has big appeal still in my view, and I think people are jumping the gun way, way too fast calling him a bust, or a for sure future disappointment. Some wide receivers just need 2 full years played before they breakout. It’s not always a lock that players explode during their first or second seasons… I think fantasy worlds are spoiled with the quick results given by players like Odell Beckham. I firmly believe in Amari Cooper, and I think an elite WR1 is in the cards this year… that does not mean I would draft him, or value him, higher than I need to, which seems to be well into the 2nd-round. Well into it!
1.09 – Deandre Hopkins – Everything said about Cooper above can kind of be said here. Hopkins still has top 2-5WR upside for the future. Invest/draft a lot lower than that value, because you can, and that is where the value is… however, don’t write this stud off as a top 1-5 WR even. He is that good. He needs a QB, and hopefully he gets one this off-season.
1.10 – AJ Green – Stud. Steady.
1.11 – Jordan Howard – He is capable of this value, sure, but this is a touch risky counting on top 11 overall value. Take a risk in one league, no problem, I support ya; however, do not load up on Howard at this value in every league, as that’s how you let one player destroy all your seasons.
1.12 – Melvin Gordon – For being arguably a top 1-3 overall player for most all of 2016, this is low. I like it. Risk is kinda baked into this value right here, so try to get him in the 8-12 overall range just like this, that feels like amazing value.

Round Two

2.01 – Jay Ajayi – Everything said about Jordan Howard above can be said here. I love both runners, but both have some risk in the 8-13 overall range. At that value, this has to be arguably your best player on your entire roster. That’s a lot to ask. Both runners can be that good, sure, but it’s a lot to ask vs drafting a bit lower and hitting a home run.
2.02 – Rob Gronkowski – Huge injury risk at this point, but this could be solid value.
2.03 – Sammy Watkins – Huge injury risk. I wonder if we ever see Waktins play 16-game seasons.
2.04 – Dez Bryant – Injury will be a concern moving forward for me. I like him a handful of picks, if not more, below this slot.
2.05 – Todd Gurley – Steal of 2017? I think it’s very, very possible. I love this value. I try to grab Gurley as my second-drafted player in as many leagues as I can, or trade for him at this value in existing leagues.
2.06 – Leonard Fournette – I love this value. Some might call this high, but I have Fournette as a future top 5 overall pick.
2.07 – Devonta Freeman – Equal parts risk and reward right here given this is a dynasty mock draft. However, given the options below, the players left at this point, I trust Freeman enough to say he has good upside for first-round like numbers.
2.08 – Michael Thomas – I love the kid, but this is a tad high for me in any format. I think he can easily earn it, but this is your second-best player if this is the kind of value/slot you toss him into. That’s a lot to ask.
2.09 – Allen Robinson – Value him here in just one league, but I support the risk/reward outlook here.
2.10 – Dalvin Cook – Some might feel this is high, but I like the value/risk. Things could change during the NFL Draft, though, no question.
2.11 – TY Hilton – This seems high. Not so much because he cannot earn this value, but because I feel he can be had much lower on average. I don’t love making him my second-drafted player, or second-best player. It feels like the recipe for a thin team.
2.12 – Aaron Rodgers – In dynasty, or any format really, the stud QB is overlooked. However, I say that only if QBs are going early, or somewhat early. If you can land Brady or Brees in the late third- or fourth-round, something you see sometimes, then taking an ARod this early is a missed opportunity when you can have near the same level of QB and still use your 2nd-rounder on a WR or RB. Value wise, ARod can crush this ranking and win a league as a team’s second-best player. Use the likelihood of where players get drafted in your exact league to determine where you draft a QB like Rodgers, don’t let the general fantasy football population force you into a “you always wait to draft a QB” type mentality.

Round Three

3.01 – Tom Brady – Everything said above with Aaron Rodgers can be applied here. And, if you are thinking that Brady won’t be elite much longer, I say 2 years is safe, and 2 years is a long time even in dynasty.
3.02 – Travis Kelce – I love Kelce, but this is quite high.
3.03 – DeMarco Murray – Solid value despite some risk of drop off (given previous workloads, not necessarily age).
3.04 – Corey Davis – Some may think this is way too high, but I believe this rookie WR will be amazing. Landing spot will determine a lot.
3.05 – LeSean McCoy – Strong value for a guy still playing elite football, and we’re talking top 5-10RB numbers. How many years will he continue to play like a top 10RB? I’d say 1-2 years is a safe bet, and that makes him worth a high first-rounder.
3.06 – Brandin Cooks – What happens if Drew Brees breaks down? Until then, though, Cooks feels very worthy of this selection, it just has a touch of risk given he is a third-drafted player on someone’s team at this slot.
3.07 – Lamar Miller – The talent is there, he could explode from this value. Then again, he needs a passing game. This is a solid slot for him, though. The risk is still kinda present here at 3.07, but he still has monster upside here.
3.08 – Jordy Nelson – He is older, sure, but still elite for 1-2 more years? That’s still a long time in dynasty.
3.09 – Andrew Luck – This is solid value, he can be top 5-10 overall points wise during any given season.
3.10 – Jarvis Landry – I stand by this kid being elite, and I think top 5-10WR elite… he just needs a passing game, and the risk that he doesn’t get one, at least a consistent one, is why he ranks about here. Don’t reach, there is risk, but near as much appeal.

3.08 – On The Clock (stay tuned for updates)…

2017 First-Round Mock

smitty fantasy football advice

Whether you’re in mostly dynasty leagues or redraft leagues, it’s time to start looking at 2017. Below you will find our Top 12 Overall Fantasy Players heading into 2017, so basically it’s a 2017 First-Round Fantasy Football Mock Draft. It’s ranked for 2017, but I’ll speak to both dynasty and redraft below. Enjoy. Good luck to all still in their 2016 fantasy football Super Bowl hunt!

2017 Mock Draft | First-Round Only

1.01 – Leveon Bell (RB/PIT)
1.02 – David Johnson (RB/AZ)
1.03 – Ezekiel Elliott (RB/DAL)

I’ve been predicting a return of the running back for years… the stud ‘every-down’ back has returned to fantasy football, and while the wide receivers right below are all arguable as top 1-4 overall draft selections in 2017 fantasy football drafts (especially in PPR), having one of the top 3RBs in 2017 will give fantasy owners a clear advantage.

1.04 – Antonio Brown (WR/PIT)
1.05 – Julio Jones (WR/ATL)
1.06 – Odell Beckham (WR/NYG)

The above wide receivers, Brown, Jones and Beckham, all clearly have top 5 overall player upside heading into the 2017 fantasy football season. In 2017 mock drafts, you might see them in the top 1-4 on occasion (any one of them!). This means that six players command at least consideration at 1.01 this upcoming 2017 year, which is crazy. Still, having one of those top RBs is a big, big advantage, especially given potential WR1s could fall (like Cooper, Hopkins, etc), so the 2017 season could be a year where the owners at 1.01-1.03 still land a top 5-10 WR1.

1.07 – Melvin Gordon (RB/SD)
1.08 – Mike Evans (WR/TB)
1.09 – Todd Gurley (RB/LA)
1.10 – AJ Green (WR/CIN)
1.11 – DeMarco Murray (RB/TEN)
1.12 – DeAnde Hopkins (WR/HOU)

This next group of players from 1.07 to 1.12 is loaded with equal parts upside and risk. Sure, any single one of them could be top 5 at their position in 2017. But, Murray and AJG have big injury risk, Melvin Gordon still has some unknowns, Gurley and Hopkins vanished in 2016, and Mike Evans needs to prove consistent. All are huge prospects entering 2017, though, and all have high-end first-round upside.

Deserving of top 7-12 consideration

Devonta Freeman
Jay Ajayi
LeSean McCoy
Jordan Howard
Amari Cooper
Jordy Nelson
Aaron Rodgers
Andrew Luck
Tom Brady
Drew Brees
Rob Gronkowski

Mid-Season Mock Draft (Week 10 on..)

smitty fantasy football advice

Below is a Mid-Season 2016 Fantasy Football Mock Draft, a ROS (Rest Of Season) mock draft that takes into account only a Weeks 10-16 outlook. That means previous stats do not matter, but they guide us into a specific direction as we rank players from Week 10 moving forward. Enjoy!

Round One

  1. Le’veon Bell (RB) – He is capable of averaging over 120 total yards and a TD per week moving forward.
  2. Antonio Brown (WR) – Big Ben is back in the lineup, and despite struggling in Week 9, Brown should be back in everyone’s top 1-4 overall moving forward.
  3. Julio Jones (WR) – Worthy of being ranked No. 1. He is only on pace for 90 receptions, around 1,700 yards and under 9TDs. He is still top two for all WRs in most formats, yet he has room to score a lot more and pull in 1-2 more receptions per contest.
  4. David Johnson (RB) – He’s in the top two for rushers in most formats and I see no reason why that changes in Weeks 10-16, especially given how involved he is in both the passing and rushing game, which makes him near match-up proof.
  5. Ezekiel Elliott (RB) – He is clearly a top 1-3RB right now in fantasy. However, rookies can often times hit a rookie wall near Week 11 or 12. Sometimes they slow, then pick things back up, so I am not predicting a late-season flop, but it just has me cautious is all. The guy is the next Adrian Peterson, especially behind that Dallas offensive line!
  6. Melvin Gordon (RB) – He was in my Top 10 Bold Predictions for a reason — his rise was no surprise to SleeperU Subscribers, so don’t expect me to doubt Gordon moving forward. He is a top 1-5RB for Weeks 10-16, and has that same kind of value in dynasty. Beast.
  7. Odell Beckham (WR) – Always capable of disappointing, getting benched for a quarter due to his distractive ways, but he is always capable of 100 yards and 2TDs on any given Sunday. His upside makes him a top 2-6 overall player moving forward. He has the same kind of dynasty appeal.
  8. Tom Brady (QB) – Call this high if you want, but he is playing on pace for 5,276 yards and 48TDs through his four games played. This kind of production can carry you through the playoffs and win you a title. He is arguably worth a top 5-7 overall rank.
  9. Aj Green (WR) – Even without TDs (3 on the year), he is on pace for 118 receptions for 1,792 yards. Imagine if he starts pulling in touchdowns?
  10. Demarco Murray (RB) – There is risk he breaks down a bit, as he was extremely overworked in Dallas and aggressively runs the football; however, he continues to put up top 5RB stats and with Henry banged up, he will be leaned on big-time in the coming weeks. If you don’t own Henry for some reason, now is the time to trade for him as he is hurt. Secure that duo and you have yourself a top 5RB moving forward even if injury strikes Murray.
  11. Rob Gronkowski (TE) – Over the last four games, which is really when he started playing full-time again this year, he is averaging 118 yards per game and has 3TDs in those four weeks. That’s a pace of near 1,800/12TDs if he keeps that pace going. With he and Brady missing the first part of the season, both are well rested in a sense, don’t be shocked if Brady and Gronk go nuts all the way through Week 16.
  12. Jay Ajayi (RB) – Ajayi is averaging 176 rushing yards and 1.33TD over the last three games.. now, one would be nuts to expect him to to continue that three-game pace all year, it’s NOT going to happen, but for fun, his 16-game stats if you stretched out those three games = 2,816 and 21TDs. Those stats should at least tell you that Miami is ready to feed him, and Dolphins coach Adam Gase said he is “never going to go away” from Jay Ajayi. This is amazing news and it means he is a threat to rush for 100 yards and 1TD per game moving forward. His dynasty value will be a fun topic of discussion heading into 2017. Start talking about it now on our forums.

The rest…

Round Two

    13. Drew Brees (QB) – Top five overall capable.
    14. Aaron Rodgers (QB) – Top five overall capable.
    15. Amari Cooper (WR) – A top 3-6WR that will occasionally go missing, which has him ranking here. But, at season’s end, don’t be shocked if he is in the top 3-5 overall, and that was on our Bold Predictions!
    16. Deandre Hopkins (WR) – He could keep disappointing, but I predict he has a big Weeks 10-16 and will be first-round worthy value wise (in hindsight) from Weeks 10-16.
    17. Mike Evans (WR) – He has great value overall right here, as he can be a top 5-10 overall talent.
    18. Matt Ryan (QB) – I’m sold for the remainder of this year, but I know some will still have him ranked higher and call this too low. I still take Brees, Rodgers and Brady over him, but it can be argued!
    19. Devonta Freeman (RB) – Top 5RB capable with a touch of usage risk. If you have Coleman, you’re protected in some ways, but they both still play. His upside makes him nice value here and his risk really isn’t too bad, as even sharing carries he produces this kind of value.
    20. Andrew Luck (QB) – He is having an underrated top 3-4QB season, and with Moncrief back, expect things to get even better.
    21. Spencer Ware (RB) – This could be the best value of these later 2nd-round picks. Future concussions is a concern, which is why I think he falls this far, but the risk is low at about this range, and his upside is top 4-7 for rushers, which is huge.
    22. Jordy Nelson (WR) – Great value. This guy has top 5WR upside, but I think some still fear some inconsistency. I do not. I think he is rock-solid moving forward.
    23. Dez Bryant (WR) – This is still high-risk given his injury concerns, but this value still has high-reward. He either saves or breaks many seasons moving forward.
    24. Todd Gurley (RB) – Will he rebound? Will he at least earn this kind of value on a disappointing Weeks 10-16? I say yes, and so to me, this is low-risk/high-reward. I just can’t say with great confidence that he will for sure outperform this draft slot, but my gut tells me there is a high likelihood that he returns to at least top 5-10RB status in the coming weeks.

Round Three

    25. Lamar Miller (RB) – This guy has top 5RB ability, but his situations have been awful, but in Miami, and now in Houston. He needs carries. All runners do. His usage is the only concern, but the concern is real, which is why he ranks this low (with upside).
    26. Derek Carr (QB) – Top 5QB capable.
    27. Kelvin Benjamin (WR) – Top 10WR upside the rest of the way!
    28. Jordan Howard (RB) – The risk is baked in here, as he has top 10RB appeal moving forward.
    29. Matt Forte (RB) – Injury risk makes this about right.
    30. Allen Robinson (WR) – I like the low-risk here that comes with upside to rebound to form.
    31. Doug Martin (RB) – Decent value, although, I do worry about him staying healthy. Is he rushing back?
    32. Brandin Cooks (WR) – Safe value for a guy capable of top 10-14WR numbers, and the ability to drop 100/2TDs once in a while.
    33. Lesean Mccoy (RB) – The risk is low here, just make sure you buy-low on Gillislee now that McCoy is back.
    34. Ty Hilton (WR) – Strong value here with not too much risk. He could truly outperform this slot.
    35. Alshon Jeffery (WR) – With Cutler healthy, he can easily produce WR2 numbers and occasionally dance with the WR1s.
    36. Demaryius Thomas (WR)

Round Four

    37. Ben Roethlisberger (QB) – Top 5QB capable.
    38. Christine Michael (RB) – Usage is the only issue. He isn’t busting based on performance. It’s all lack of carries, which could continue, but the risk is built in right here.
    39. Legarrette Blount (RB) – Solid value.
    40. Marvin Jones (WR) – After a huge start, he has slumped in his past three games. This is a great buy-low area.
    41. Greg Olsen (TE) – Solid.
    42. Jordan Reed (TE) – Solid.
    43. Jarvis Landry (WR) – He could be used more, says the coaching staff. We shall see. If used right, he’d be a top 10WR. It’s all about usage.
    44. Cam Newton (QB) – He still has good upside here.
    45. Randall Cobb (WR) – Decent value.
    46. Philip Rivers (QB) – Solid.
    47. Devontae Booker (RB) – Some risk here, sure, but also tremendous upside.
    48. Larry Fitzgerald (WR) – Consistent.

ADP Data (fresh) + 100 Player WriteUps

smitty fantasy football advice

Ok, it’s the end of August, so it’s time to look at fresh 2016 Fantasy Football ADP Data (Average Draft Positions). These ADP Rankings were compiled using some of the best redraft ADPs in the industry, and I have included over 100 player predictions/comments.

2016 August 28th ADP Data

Updated: 8/28/16

BOLD = Amazing Value!

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Live Expert Draft Results

smitty fantasy football advice

Ok, so mock draft time is over and it’s time for all of your real 2016 fantasy football drafts. Below is a live/on-going 2016 Expert Fantasy Football Draft (PPR/Redraft). The draft is currently into the 8th-round, and you can follow along here; however, I have the first seven rounds below with my commentary on each and every pick, including my selections (in bold). Enjoy.

SleeperU.com’s Team So Far

QB: Andrew Luck (4.10)
RB1: LeSean McCoy (3.03)
RB2: Jeremy Langford (5.03)
WR1: Julio Jones (1.03)
WR2: Amari Cooper (2.10)
WR3: Josh Gordon (7.03)
Flex: Melvin Gordon (6.10)
TE: TBA

Live Expert Draft Results

Date: 8/17/16

Round 1    
1.011FantasyFootballFetchBrown, Antonio PIT WRClear No. 1 in PPR.
1.022DynastyFootballWarehouseGurley, Todd RAM RBA top 5 overall pick in any format, even PPR. He might have a higher PPR ceiling than people think, he is still maturing!
1.033SleeperU.ComJones, Julio ATL WREasy top 2-4 pick in any PPR draft.
1.044JunkyardJakeBeckham, Odell NYG WRTop 1-5 lock in any format.
1.055TheFantasySportsBrainJohnson, David ARI RBI love DJ this year, he is one of my favorite 5-7 overall picks in 2016!!
1.066FFJungleHopkins, DeAndre HOU WRWhile I rank him right there myself, due to ADP data, I quietly think he can be a top 1-2 overall WR in 2016. I think he dominates this season!
1.077BigGuyFantasySportsBell, Le'Veon PIT RBI'm warming up to taking a first-round risk on Bell given his suspension 'could' get reduced. Even if he serves 4 games, if you cuff to DWill, the 16 starts you get is a top 1-4RB.
1.088FantasySportsCentralGreen, A.J. CIN WRAlways a touch underrated, this is the highest I've seen him go in a while. He deserves this slot, though, he always has 1-5WR appeal.
1.099HattyWaiverWireGuruRobinson, Allen JAC WRRobinson, if healthy, should easily earn high-end WR1 value in 2016!
1.1010FantasyFootballNerdBryant, Dez DAL WRAlways a risk, mentally and physically, Dez has less risk because his ADP is in the 10-14 overall range.
1.1111SCOUT FantasyPeterson, Adrian MIN RBHe still has one more top 5RB season left, and this is a redraft league.
1.1212WalterFootballGronkowski, Rob NEP TEHe is easily worth this value. I myself do not enjoy drafting a TE in the first-round, only because it's tough to balance out a team with that strategy, but again, he is easily worth top 8-12 overall value.
Round 2
2.0113WalterFootballAllen, Keenan SDC WRI like Allen, in fact, I think I had him ranked higher than most anyone heading into 2014. He is a touch risky as a top 12-17 overall pick, as it doesn't leave room for a lot of ups and downs, something I fear with Allen in '16.
2.0214SCOUT FantasyMarshall, Brandon NYJ WRHe could have one elite year left, although, it wouldn't be shocking to see him drop off as early as this season.
2.0315FantasyFootballNerdElliott, Ezekiel DAL RBZeke fell far in this one, and this is low risk given most everyone is, even in redraft, willing to pay top 5-10 overall value. Great value here!
2.0416HattyWaiverWireGuruCooks, Brandin NOS WRThis is quite high. I like Cooks, but he has to explode to break even.
2.0517FantasySportsCentralFreeman, Devonta ATL RBI was hoping to land Freeman with my 2.10 down below. This is fantastic value at #17 overall, as he was the number one rusher last year and there is no reason to doubt him being at least a top 5-10RB in 2016.
2.0618BigGuyFantasySportsHilton, T.Y. IND WRThis is a bit high even though I love Hilton this year. Like Cooks, taking Hilton this high means he HAS to explode.
2.0719FFJungleCharles, Jamaal KCC RBDecent value in terms of risk vs. reward.
2.0820TheFantasySportsBrainMiller, Lamar HOU RBGreat value, given he can likely earn this value even if he has some slower than expected weeks. If he is a top 5-10RB, this ends up being a steal.
2.0921JunkyardJakeEvans, Mike TBB WRI like this pick. It's fair value, and he still has room to explode.
2.1022SleeperU.ComCooper, Amari OAK WRThis is my favorite 2nd-round WR right now. Steal, as I see a potential top 5WR season in the cards for Coop.
2.1123DynastyFootballWarehouseNewton, Cam CAR QBThis is high given I like ARod and Luck better, or at least equal, and both seem to be easily had in the 4th-round (sometimes 5th for Luck).
2.1224FantasyFootballFetchNelson, Jordy GBP WRI like Jordy this year, and some doubt him. But, this is a handful of picks too high for me. I have him as a potential steal in the mid-to-late third-round.
Round 3
3.0125FantasyFootballFetch.comRodgers, Aaron GBP QBUsually he falls further, but I fault no one for grabbing a 40TD capable WR as a third drafted player. In fact, you won't likely ever see me pass on ARod or Luck this year if they fall to my 4th-round pick in any draft.
3.0226DynastyFootballWarehouse.ComJeffery, Alshon CHI WRThis is about right.
3.0327SleeperU.ComMcCoy, LeSean BUF RBOk, so this is where I admit I may be changing my thinking on LeSean McCoy this year. I have seen him fall into the third-round so much, he went from risky to solid in my eyes as a third-drafted player. Cuff him to Gillislee and Willams, though, if you draft him!
3.0428JunkyardJake.ComWatkins, Sammy BUF WRThis is about right.
3.0529TheFantasySportsBrain.comThomas, Demaryius DEN WRThis is about right.
3.0630FFJungle.ComIngram, Mark NOS RBThis is about right.
3.0731BigGuyFantasySports.comLandry, Jarvis MIA WRA reach according to some ADP data, but I still think Landry can be a top 10WR this year, which means this is actually decent value for sure.
3.0832FantasySportsCentral.ComLacy, Eddie GBP RBSolid value. I don't like Lacy in the 2nd-round, but the third-round is decent upside given the risk!
3.0933HattyWaiverWireGuru.ComMartin, Doug TBB RBSolid value.
3.1034FantasyFootballNerd.comTate, Golden DET WRA bit of a reach here even if you like the guy.
3.1135SCOUT FantasyFitzgerald, Larry ARI WRA huge reach here even if you like the guy.
3.1236WalterFootball.ComBenjamin, Kelvin CAR WRDecent value vs. risk.
Round 4
4.0137WalterFootball.ComMurray, DeMarco TEN RBI like this pick if you back him up with Henry. The duo seems secure.
4.0238SCOUT FantasyForte, Matt NYJ RBSolid given the reward potential.
4.0339FantasyFootballNerd.comCobb, Randall GBP WRDecent value.
4.0440HattyWaiverWireGuru.ComMaclin, Jeremy KCC WRA bit high for me.
4.0541FantasySportsCentral.ComDecker, Eric NYJ WRA bit high for me.
4.0642BigGuyFantasySports.comHurns, Allen JAC WRThis is about right.
4.0743FFJungle.ComReed, Jordan WAS TEI wait on TEs after Gronk, but you can't argue the value here.
4.0844TheFantasySportsBrain.comMoncrief, Donte IND WRHe is a sleeper for sure, but this seems high as a 4th-drafted player.
4.0945JunkyardJake.ComHyde, Carlos SFO RBSolid value given he has top 8-13RB appeal.
4.1046SleeperU.ComLuck, Andrew IND QBI love this pick. As I said above, I most likely will not pass in the 4th-round on ARod or Luck at any point in any draft in 2016. I know, waiting on a QB is popular... I'll keep drafting a top 1-5 overall player with 40TD potential in the 4th-round.
4.1147DynastyFootballWarehouse.ComBaldwin, Doug SEA WRI actually like Tyler Lockett more this year, so I am not a fan of this pick.
4.1248FantasyFootballFetch.comLewis, Dion NEP RBSolid value, but still some risk as this is the 4th player for this team. If he stays healthy, Dion could easily earn this and more, though.
Round 5
5.0149FantasyFootballFetch.comKelce, Travis KCC TEA reach, but he is capable of being this good.
5.0250DynastyFootballWarehouse.ComRawls, Thomas SEA RBIf you invest in Rawls this high in 2016, be certain to back him up. The problem is, there are more than one back-up that you will have to acquire, as the back-up job is still up in the air.
5.0351SleeperU.ComLangford, Jeremy CHI RBI love how many consider this a reach. Langford has top 10RB upside and can easily earn this value on a somewhat disappointing season. His competition is weak. All he has to do is stay on the field and hold onto the football. Steal.
5.0452JunkyardJake.ComJohnson, Duke CLE RBPotential steal.
5.0553TheFantasySportsBrain.comAnderson, C.J. DEN RBSolid value. I doubt CJ a bit, and he HAS TO be handcuffed to Booker. That said, this is low risk in many ways, especially if you get him handcuffed.
5.0654FFJungle.ComEdelman, Julian NEP WRHe can earn this. He can also get hurt.
5.0755BigGuyFantasySports.comWilson, Russell SEA QBDecent value for sure.
5.0856FantasySportsCentral.ComMurray, Latavius OAK RBA mix of decent value and risk.
5.0957HattyWaiverWireGuru.ComOlsen, Greg CAR TEDecent value.
5.1058FantasyFootballNerd.comBrees, Drew NOS QBSolid value.
5.1159SCOUT FantasyMatthews, Jordan PHI WRSleeper.
5.1260WalterFootball.ComHill, Jeremy CIN RBGreat value given his TD upside. Hill makes for a sneaky RB2 at this value in 2016.
Round 6
6.0161WalterFootball.ComSanders, Emmanuel DEN WRDecent value, but still some risk given the QB situation in DEN.
6.0262SCOUT FantasyWoodhead, Danny SDC RBA bit high.
6.0363FantasyFootballNerd.comJones, Matt WAS RBSolid value. I loved Jones last year, but he has to hold onto the ball and stay on the field.
6.0464HattyWaiverWireGuru.ComMathews, Ryan PHI RBOvervalued if you ask me. I like Smallwood this year as a sleeper to stash for later. Much later.
6.0565FantasySportsCentral.ComFloyd, Michael ARI WRDecent value, but he still worries me in terms of being consistent.
6.0666BigGuyFantasySports.comLockett, Tyler SEA WRSolid value. Sleeper alert!
6.0767FFJungle.ComBernard, Giovani CIN RBSleeper given his potential if he gets the starting nod. Even if he doesn't get the nod, this value is about right, so the upside is present!
6.0868TheFantasySportsBrain.comParker, DeVante MIA WRDecent value, but many expect him to be better than Landry. I do not.
6.0969JunkyardJake.ComWhite, Kevin CHI WRI'll let others draft him this high. I need to see more.
6.1070SleeperU.ComGordon, Melvin SDC RBI love this pick. I was hoping he would fall to me, as I think we might see the same player we thought we were going to see last year. Huge upside and low risk right here.
6.1171DynastyFootballWarehouse.ComGore, Frank IND RBThis is a bit high, but Gore has proven me wrong for a couple years now, as I keep predicting decline.
6.1272FantasyFootballFetch.comFoster, Arian MIA RBI like this value given Foster could be a strong RB2 for as long as he stays on the field.
Round 7
7.0173FantasyFootballFetch.comFleener, Coby NOS TEDecent value.
7.0274DynastyFootballWarehouse.ComWalker, Delanie TEN TEDecent value.
7.0375SleeperU.ComGordon, Josh CLE WRIf he returns to form, this is a huge, huge steal. If he doesn't rebound to his old form, I think he can still earn this value.
7.0476JunkyardJake.ComStewart, Jonathan CAR RBI will let others take him this year.
7.0577TheFantasySportsBrain.comThomas, Michael NOS WRThis is kinda high, but the kid looks good and is in a good situation to mature fast.
7.0678FFJungle.ComCrabtree, Michael OAK WRA bit of a reach.
7.0779BigGuyFantasySports.comForsett, Justin BAL RBI eventually think Kenneth Dixon wins this job in BAL.
7.0880FantasySportsCentral.ComShepard, Sterling NYG WRSold value here, but some are reaching much higher. I think this is about right.
7.0981HattyWaiverWireGuru.ComBrady, Tom NEP QBDecent value for sure, as he is a top 1-4QB when back.
7.1082FantasyFootballNerd.comBrown, John ARI WRDecent value.
7.1183SCOUT FantasyAbdullah, Ameer DET RBSleeper alert. Or, bounce-back candidate rather. Like Melvin Gordon, Abdullah has huge bounce-back upside and we might see the same player we thought we were going to see last year.
7.1284WalterFootball.ComJones, Marvin DET WRDecent value, but not an exciting pick. But, the player pool is starting to get thin.

Stock Market: Arian Foster

smitty fantasy football advice

fantasy-stock-market

Arian Foster has just cracked the Fantasy Football Stock Market board, so swing on over there and check out if his fantasy football stock is on the rise or on the decline. And, just because it’s on the rise, that doesn’t necessarily mean our advice is to buy… and same goes for the flip side of that coin.

Stock Market: Foster