Archive for Dynasty

2018 Bold Prediction #2

2018 fantasy football bold predictions smitty
smitty fantasy football advice

Ok, everyone, here is the second-added Bold Prediction for the 2018 fantasy football season. Each season, I crank out 10-12 deep/bold predictions, and while Alvin Kamara and DeAndre Hopkins cracked the list last year, I plan to nail more in 2018, don’t you guys worry! Here is the second one for 2018… enjoy!

View Bold Prediction No. 2

2018 QBs Rise/Decline

2018 QBs On The Rise

  1. Carson Wentz | QB PHI
  2. Jared Goff | QB LAR
  3. Kirk Cousins | QB WAS
  4. Derek Carr | QB OAK
  5. Jimmy Garoppolo | QB SF

2018 QBs On the Decline

  1. Drew Brees | QB NO
  2. Philip Rivers | QB LAC
  3. Alex Smith | QB KC
  4. Ben Roethlisberger | QB PIT
  5. Matt Ryan | QB ATL
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On The Rise

While the 2017 fantasy football season is winding down, it’s never too early to start preparing for both 2018 redraft and 2018 dynasty thinking. So, what 2018 quarterbacks could fail to meet expectations? Which group could take a huge step forward? Let’s dig into a few names for each side of this.

Carson Wentz emerged in 2017 as a rising star, and as of Week 14, he’s a top 1-2 fantasy QB through 13 weeks and shows no signs of slowing down. So, he’s already a star and a top 1-4QB lock heading into 2018. However, that doesn’t mean that he cannot improve beyond the fantasy production that he’s currently cranking out, which currently is 3,005 passing yards, 29TDs and 6INTs. His 38TD-pace is something I’d kind of set as the expectation for next year, but his pace of what looks like it will be 4,000 passing yards could be a good 400-700 yards more in 2018. The guy has instincts many passers don’t have, and the Eagles have surrounded him with everything he needs to continue to improve. I really think Wentz is looking like the most attractive long-term fantasy football QB heading into the next 10 years. I love Aaron Rodgers, and he certainly has enough years left to not let his age affect his dynasty ranking much, if any, but Wentz has youth on his side with the talent. He might be my No. 1 overall heading into 2018 dynasty start-ups. Rodgers might get the redraft nod heading into 2018, though, but it’s close enough to call these two QBs the top two QBs in fantasy.

Jared Goff has a chance to develop into a consistent top 7-10 fantasy football QB. That’s where he currently sits in most formats, around 7-8 overall for 2017 fantasy football QBs. With the Rams looking like a whole new team in 2017, the sky is the limit for that offense and Goff.

Kirk Cousins, at the start of Week 14 of the 2017 season, is ranking in right around the top 5-6 in most league’s scoring format. The thing is, he got off to a slow start in 2017, and his top wide receivers (Pryor and Crowder) didn’t show up to help him early on… Pryor never showed up to perform, and Crowder took until Week 8 to do anything of note. Jordan Reed has been banged up all year as well, and the running back situation has been a mess. To me, this suggests that Cousins has even more of a ceiling than this top 5-6 overall QB play. Draft him as a top 5-6 fantasy QB heading into 2018 fantasy football drafts, and consider him at that value via trade in existing and start-up dynasty leagues… however, know that he might be hiding another level of fantasy football play, thus making him a high-upside player for the future.

Derek Carr has been up and down this year, and may still have a lot left to prove from a fantasy football QB1 perspective. Draft him with caution, as he hasn’t been a top 10 fantasy QB in 2017… but know he has the ability to be a top 7-10 fantasy football QB if he develops like I think he can.

Jimmy Garoppolo will paint a picture of his future soon, as he is just getting going late in the 2017 fantasy football season. He has a real chance at being a top 10 fantasy football QB of the future, but the 49ers will have to surround him with more talent this coming off-season. Time will tell if they deliver.

Potentially On The Decline

Drew Brees has truly disappointed fantasy football worlds in 2017, as he is, as of Week 14, ranking well outside the top 10 fantasy football QBs. The thing is, he has played well and commanded that Saints offense well, as the Saints have been one of the best teams in football this season… but, the team has transformed into a rushing-driven monster, so Brees has shifted into a game manager, which crushes his fantasy football upside. Still, he can’t yet be considered a QB that has fallen off talent wise, so he will likely turn into a value grab QB in 2018 drafts (in all formats, too). He comes with risk that he again isn’t passing as much as he use to, but I think for another year or so, he will still have the talent to be elite, so he will kind of be a dormant-in-waiting top 5 fantasy QB.

Philip Rivers will be 37 heading into the 2018 fantasy football season, and he has been up and down this year. Lately, he has scored big, but he is ranking somewhere in the 9-11 overall QB range through Week 13. It’s safe to consider him a top 10-15QB in 2018 and I think it’s also safe to look at Rivers no more than one season out at a time.

Alex Smith has been up and down in 2017, but his recent ‘down’ play had many thinking he would be on a short leash heading into Weeks 13-17. However, in Week 13, Smith had a huge game, so his place as the team’s starter for the remainder of 2017 seems secure. However, Patrick Mahomes has monster upside heading into the future. Will he get a chance to start in 2018? Maybe, maybe not… time will tell. Mahomes could be a rising star, though. Know that!

Ben Roethlisberger has talked about retirement in the past, and he started off in awful fashion in early 2017. His future is very much in question.

Matt Ryan dropped off big-time in 2017. His place in the elite fantasy QBs no longer exists.

2017 Rookies: Re-Visiting

Re-Ranking 2017 Rookie Class

  1. alvin kamara | RB NO
  2. leonard fournette | RB JAC
  3. kareem hunt | RB KC
  4. deshaun watson | QB HOU
  5. christian mccaffrey | RB CAR
  6. dalvin cook | RB MIN

  7. joe mixon | RB CIN
  8. corey davis | WR TEN
  9. juju smith-schuster | WR PIT

  10. patrick mahomes | QB KC
  11. kenny golladay | WR DET
  12. cooper kupp | WR LAR
  13. samaje perine | RB WAS
  14. jamaal williams | RB GB
  15. evan engram | TE NYG
  16. mike williams | WR LAC
  17. tarik cohen | RB CHI
  18. marlon mack | RB IND
  19. oj howard | TE TB

  20. dede westbrook | WR JAC
  21. d onta foreman | RB HOU
  22. james conner | RB PIT
  23. david njoku | TE CLE
  24. elijah mcguire | RB NYJ
  25. zay jones | WR BUF
  26. aaron jones | RB GB
  27. gerald everett | TE LAR
  28. john ross | WR CIN
  29. chad williams | WR AZ
  30. chris godwin | WR TB
  31. curtis samuel | WR CAR
  32. deangelo henderson | RB DEN
  33. mitch trubisky | QB CHI
  34. taywan taylor | WR TEN
  35. carlos henderson | WR DEN
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Ok, so we are entering Week 13 of the 2017 fantasy football season… it’s time to Re-Rank/Revisit The 2017 Rookies for the 2018 Fantasy Football Season. So, this will be from a dynasty perspective for 2018, but have some redraft spin.

For 2018 and beyond, I think it’s pretty clear that Leonard Fournette , Alvin Kamara , Kareem Hunt and Deshaun Watson sit in an elite tier.

Alvin Kamara is playing out of his mind right now. He has 546 rushing yards and 5 rushing TDs, and he has pulled in 54 receptions for 548 yards and 4 more TDs. He enters 2018 as a potential top 8 overall pick, if not higher. This will be a good debate to have once we get there in August 2018, as there is some risk ranking him in the top 1-4 overall rushers, however, as of this moment, the risk looks worth it, as he is dropping elite RB1 numbers on a weekly basis… and New Orleans loves the guy, which is more than half the battle in these situations when players explode in their first NFL season, then enter their sophomore year with extreme expecations. For now, he is a top 8 overall pick heading into 2018, and he is easily a top 1-2 overall rookie from this 2017 fantasy football rookie class (for the ‘now’ and for 2018).

Sure, Kareem Hunt is struggling right now, but fantasy football owners have short memories, and all the current doubt surrounding Hunt entering Week 13 could fade with one single game, and maybe he drops that big game in Week 13. Even if he struggles in Weeks 13-17, he will still be a big-dog candidate at the running back position heading into 2018 fantasy football drafts.

Dalvin Cook, who tore his ACL in Week 4 here in 2017, will surely be in most everyone’s top 12RBs heading into 2018 fantasy football drafts. He was a total yard beast in his first four weeks as a pro, and he is a PPR monster. He should be on track to start Week 1, but stay on the news all year on that. Where does one rank him amongst the other 2017 rookies, though? I think it’s tough to toss him anywhere but the bottom of the top tier. With the injury, and the upside of all of the other rookies in that tier, I think it’s a safe and default place to slot him.

Christian McCaffrey feels about the same in terms of risk/reward (as Cook) heading into 2018. While McCaffrey hasn’t suffered injury like Cook, he has seen inconsistent usage during his rookie campaign, enough to warrant caution when ranking him amongst the players slotted above him. Could McCaffrey get 20+ touches per game moving forward in Weeks 13-17 and enter 2018 like a top 2-3 rookie from this 2017 fantasy football rookie class? Sure. No question! But, until we see it, he sits at the bottom of the top tier, but that is still showing him respect, as he does have RR1 appeal for the future.

Leonard Fournette has both the talent and situation to be the best overall rookie from the entire 2017 draft class, but he could also disappoint and fail to stay healthy, as he is a big guy at 6-0, 228 pounds. I’m not predicting bust here, and he is still in my top 10 overall heading into 2018 (as of this moment). I’m merely suggesting that fantasy owners curb expectations for anything beyond 2-3 years (elite-wise), this way fantasy owners don’t jump ship too early on players like Antonio Brown and Julio Jones, thinking that in a swap they’d get a ton younger in a move for Fournette. The truth is, with a running back Fournette’s size and build, he might drop off at the same time an Antonio Brown drops off in talent. That doesn’t make Fournette a bust, and it certainly doesn’t take him outside of my top 10-12 overall dynasty players… 2-3 years is a long time in dynasty, that’s how fantasy football goes. Those playing and building teams more than 2-3 years down the road will often times never see the longevity in their players like they had hoped when acquiring them, as injury can take out anyone during any given year. Play for the now and 1-3 years max, and Fournette should have top 12 overall value for a few years.

Deshaun Watson is a future top 10 overall player, but as with most passers, they don’t get drafted in that range come draft day. Quarterbacks of his caliber, which is in the 1-3 overall QB range, usually fall to the late second-round or even early third-round, so definitely use ADPs and league history to your advantage when drafting and acquiring the rising star. I am confident that Watson makes a full recovery in 2018, but it’s probably a lot to ask him to play at the exact level he was playing at in Weeks 1-8 of 2017, as he was on an insane 48TD-pace for total TDs … Don’t get me wrong, he can be a 40 total TD guy, but I would expect a touch less in 2018, but I still think he is a top 1-4QB on the year in 2018.

Joe Mixon, Corey Davis and JuJu Smith-Schuster all have upside to be better than their expected 2018 draft value. Meaning, some might see them as solid RB2/WR2 options heading into 2018, but they could very well play better than that.

While this ranking now seems believable, patrick mahomes was almost an afterthought during the first half of the 2017 season, as Alex Smith was on fire. I’ve said for months now that his rise is coming, and each week it’s looking more and more likely that Mahomes takes over the starting gig in KC. Will Smith turn it around in Weeks 13-17? Time will tell, but I see elite in Mahomes — buy-low like I’ve said for a month now, and you can read more on the Bold Predictions, where Mahomes was showcased (as the first 2018 Bold Prediction).

Patrick Mahomes a stud?

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Stock Market: McCoy, Bell..


Sell LeSean McCoy before Week 4? MCCOY

(9/30/17) LeSean McCoy is 29, and he has played eight starting seasons on his resume. While there is a chance he has one more elite year left (specifically this remaining Weeks 4-16), I can’t help but feel the odds are more likely leaning in the direction of… Continue Reading


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Ezekiel Elliott could still face a suspension this year?  ZEKE

(9/22/17) Ezekiel Elliott now has a hearing with the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals, which will take place on October 2nd. So, this means that Elliott is able to play the next two weeks. However, depending on the decision made by the Fifth Circuit Court, his 6-game suspension could kick in.  If you can… Continue Reading  


Stock Market: Mike Thomas & LeVeon Bell

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Mike Thomas a buy-low? MT

(9/21/17) For current owners, Mike Thomas is ‘hold’ right now entering Week 3 of the 2017 fantasy football season. This also means he is a great buy-low for those of you that do not own him. He hasn’t had a big game yet,
I get that many are frustrated, but… Continue Reading



LeVeon Bell a buy-low? BELL

(9/21/17) While you will not be able to buy-low on LeVeon Bell in every league where you don’t own him, I’ve seem too many situations where current Bell owners are panicking… Continue Reading


Predicting the next Tarik Cohen

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Week 2 Waiver Wire Adds

NOTE: This feature is lives on the Fantasy Football Stock Market feature, but this is a taste, click the “Continue Reading” buttons to venture on over to the Stock Market page, or click here.


Tarik Cohen (RB/CHI)

I posted a Stock Market write-up on Friday on this guy, and sent out a Sunday morning email on the kid. He was my gut feeling of the start of the season, much like Dak Prescott was last year. Well, it didn’t take him even half a game to shine, and as crazy as this sounds, he may have unseated Jordan Howard already… if not full-time, at least half-time. That’s a huge blow to Howard owners, but hopefully many of you capitalized off of my Stash and Grab Article on Friday, which highlighted grabbing both Cohen and Carson. If either is still available in your league, especially Cohen, grab them! Cohen is such an exciting player, a weapon Chicago cannot keep off the field. He is only 5-6, 179 pounds, but he’s lightning quick, has wiggle like Darren Sproles, and power like no 5-6 rusher I’ve seen. In Week 1, his NFL debut, Cohen rushed five times for 66 yards and caught 8-of-12 targets for 47 yards and a touchdown. Howard is still the starter, but what does that even mean after Cohen’s electric performance on Sunday? Howard didn’t do himself any favors dropping the would-be touchdown pass at the goal line with seconds left in the contest.

Buck Allen (RB/BAL)

(Update) 9/12/17: With Danny Woodhead out a significant amount of time, sources suggest, Allen has some decent appeal.

Kerwynn Williams/Andre Ellington/DJ Foster (RB/AZ)

(Update) – 9/12/17: It looks like most sources are pointing to a 2-4 Week timeframe for DJ to miss, or a 3-4 month timeframe. DJ is getting a second opinion, most likely speaking to the 3-4 month timeframe some fear. Nothing is clear just yet, but none of these runners are worth what Cohen is up above.
Previous: We should know more on how long David Johnson will be out of action with his wrist injury. As of now.. Continue Reading

Cooper Kupp (WR/LAR)

Kupp pulled in four catches for 76 yards and a touchdown on six targets Sunday in the Rams’ Week 1 win over the Colts. He is arguably.. Continue Reading

Chris Carson (RB/SEA)

He could be.. Continue Reading

Kenny Golladay (WR/DET)

He had a 2TD game in the preseason, then…Continue Reading

DeShaun Watson (QB/HOU)

He has top.. Continue Reading

Austin Hooper (TE/ATL)

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Nelson Agholor (WR/PHI)

He is so.. Continue Reading

Chris Thompson (RB/WAS)

A solid/sneaky.. Continue Reading

Jesse James (TE/PIT)

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Mike Tolbert (RB/BUF)

Shady got.. Continue Reading

Allen Hurns (WR/JAC)

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DeShone Kizer (QB/CLE)

Decent.. Continue Reading

Charles Clay (TE/BUF)

A TD.. Continue Reading

Stock Market: Tarik Cohen a grab and stash?


Tarik Cohen could be a gem in 2017? :: COHEN

(9/8/17) Tarik Cohen is a beast pound for pound. He is only 5-6, 179 pounds, but he has quicks and cutting ability like faster version of a Darren Sproles. Jordan Howard is the starter, and I am not suggesting a takeover, but I will say that all Howard owners better… Continue Reading


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