Round One Analysis
As of today, November 16th, 2017, I think it’s safe to say that all four of LeVeon Bell, David Johnson, Ezekiel Elliott and Todd Gurley make a strong case for the 1.01 heading into super-early 2018 fantasy football mock drafts. Despite kind of an up-and-down year, one could certainly argue that Antonio Brown still has 1.01 value. And, I agree. Keep in mind, we are still talking redraft and PPR. Johnson (injury) and Elliott (suspension) are harder to trust coming off disappointing 2017 campaigns, so Bell and Gurley, assuming both play strong through Week 16 this season, could feel the safest heading into early mock drafts come January, 2018. In the end, though, when push comes to shove in August 2018, I expect, if healthy, both Johnson and Bell will firmly settle into the 1.01 and 1.02 value. No matter what, there are five amazing options in picks 1-5 in 2018. That’s the real takeaway here.
So, past those five, Odell Beckham, Kareem Hunt, Leonard Fournette, AJ Green and Julio Jones seem to have 1.06 – 1.10 on lock, and aside from the order of those five within that 6-10 overall, it’s a pretty clear-cut top 10 overall heading into 2018 (so far).
From 10 on, that’s where things get interesting and likely very all over the map from one perspective to another. I myself love Melvin Gordon, despite his ups and downs here in 2018. Now, this can change, as it’s only Week 11 as of this write-up. Things can change in either direction, though. As of today, many doubt him, so my guess is his ADP, if we were to calculate it as of this very moment, would be near the 1.10-2.04 range. If he finishes strong in Weeks 11-16, he could easily climb a handful of spots higher. I think Aaron Rodgers needs to be waited on and not take in the top 12 overall (in most formats), but I think his value is in that 10-12 overall range. So, let him fall, but know that value-wise, you’re likely getting a top 10-12 overall value in Rodgers in 2018.
Round Two Analysis
Analysis for rounds 2-5 coming in the next 24 hours…