Author Archive for SleeperU

Week 15 Radio Show

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Take a listen to Smitty’s Week 13 Fantasy Football Advice on “The Red Zone” Fantasy Football Radio Show, which is arguably the world’s longest-running fantasy football radio show. This week, Smitty and Russ Bliss (host) discuss these Week 13 topics:

  • Buy-Low, Sell-High Week 14
  • Waiver Wire Adds
  • Breakouts, Sleepers, Busts and more

Listen Now To Week 15 Show (12/13/17 WED Show)

2018 Bold Prediction #2

2018 fantasy football bold predictions smitty
smitty fantasy football advice

Ok, everyone, here is the second-added Bold Prediction for the 2018 fantasy football season. Each season, I crank out 10-12 deep/bold predictions, and while Alvin Kamara and DeAndre Hopkins cracked the list last year, I plan to nail more in 2018, don’t you guys worry! Here is the second one for 2018… enjoy!

View Bold Prediction No. 2

Week 15 Adds

Week 15 Adds

  1. Kenyan Drake | RB MIA
  2. Rod Smith | RB DAL
  3. Kerwynn Williams | RB AZ
  4. Marquise Goodwin | WR SF
  5. Theo Riddick/Tion Green | RB DET
  6. Mike Davis | RB SEA
  7. Peyton Barber | RB TB
  8. Dede Westbrook | WR JAC
  9. Tyrell Williams | WR LAC
  10. Wayne Gallman | RB NYG
  11. JD McKissic | RB SEA
  12. Corey Coleman | WR CLE
  13. Trey Burton | TE PHI
smitty sleeper u fantasy football

Note: Make sure Josh Gordon is not available in your league.

Kenyan Drake isn’t available in most leagues, but check to be sure. He rushed 25 times for 114 yards and caught 5-of-6 targets for 79 yards in the Dolphins’ Week 14 win over the Patriots. He looks the part of a real 2018 breakout, if Miami uses him right, and he could have a strong finish to the 2017 season. He warrants strong flex/RB3 consideration this week (with upside for much more).

Ezekiel Elliott will return in Week 16, but Rod Smith still has Week 15 to make some noise. Last week, Smith ran six times for 47 yards and a touchdown, but he added 5 receptions for 115 yards and another touchdown through the air. His TDs came in the fourth quarter, which leaves you with a sense that the team will count on him more in Week 15, maybe to the tune of starter-type touches. He is far from a lock to get even a 100 total yards and a touchdown next week, but he is a great add and flex play in Week 15 if you are hurting due to injury.

Kerwynn Williams rushed 20 times for 73 yards, and he also pulled in 1 pass for 15 yards in the Cardinals’ Week 14 win over the Titans. He is getting volume, which makes him a strong flex heading into Week 15.

Marquise Goodwin has been on fire over the last five games, and last week’s 6/106/0TD line is proof he is rather consistent heading into Week 15. He is a solid WR3 and flex play in Week 15.

We had Tion Green set to have a big Week 15, but the team leaned on Theo Riddick instead. He rushed the ball just 10 times for 29 yards, but had 2TDs with that rushing. He then added 6 catches for 64 yards. He must be added in most all leagues and has some RB3/flex appeal heading into Week 15, but know there are risks counting on him, just as there were risks counting on Tion Green, who was surprisingly not used in Week 14 despite having a strong Week 13 showing.

2018 QBs Rise/Decline

2018 QBs On The Rise

  1. Carson Wentz | QB PHI
  2. Jared Goff | QB LAR
  3. Kirk Cousins | QB WAS
  4. Derek Carr | QB OAK
  5. Jimmy Garoppolo | QB SF

2018 QBs On the Decline

  1. Drew Brees | QB NO
  2. Philip Rivers | QB LAC
  3. Alex Smith | QB KC
  4. Ben Roethlisberger | QB PIT
  5. Matt Ryan | QB ATL
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On The Rise

While the 2017 fantasy football season is winding down, it’s never too early to start preparing for both 2018 redraft and 2018 dynasty thinking. So, what 2018 quarterbacks could fail to meet expectations? Which group could take a huge step forward? Let’s dig into a few names for each side of this.

Carson Wentz emerged in 2017 as a rising star, and as of Week 14, he’s a top 1-2 fantasy QB through 13 weeks and shows no signs of slowing down. So, he’s already a star and a top 1-4QB lock heading into 2018. However, that doesn’t mean that he cannot improve beyond the fantasy production that he’s currently cranking out, which currently is 3,005 passing yards, 29TDs and 6INTs. His 38TD-pace is something I’d kind of set as the expectation for next year, but his pace of what looks like it will be 4,000 passing yards could be a good 400-700 yards more in 2018. The guy has instincts many passers don’t have, and the Eagles have surrounded him with everything he needs to continue to improve. I really think Wentz is looking like the most attractive long-term fantasy football QB heading into the next 10 years. I love Aaron Rodgers, and he certainly has enough years left to not let his age affect his dynasty ranking much, if any, but Wentz has youth on his side with the talent. He might be my No. 1 overall heading into 2018 dynasty start-ups. Rodgers might get the redraft nod heading into 2018, though, but it’s close enough to call these two QBs the top two QBs in fantasy.

Jared Goff has a chance to develop into a consistent top 7-10 fantasy football QB. That’s where he currently sits in most formats, around 7-8 overall for 2017 fantasy football QBs. With the Rams looking like a whole new team in 2017, the sky is the limit for that offense and Goff.

Kirk Cousins, at the start of Week 14 of the 2017 season, is ranking in right around the top 5-6 in most league’s scoring format. The thing is, he got off to a slow start in 2017, and his top wide receivers (Pryor and Crowder) didn’t show up to help him early on… Pryor never showed up to perform, and Crowder took until Week 8 to do anything of note. Jordan Reed has been banged up all year as well, and the running back situation has been a mess. To me, this suggests that Cousins has even more of a ceiling than this top 5-6 overall QB play. Draft him as a top 5-6 fantasy QB heading into 2018 fantasy football drafts, and consider him at that value via trade in existing and start-up dynasty leagues… however, know that he might be hiding another level of fantasy football play, thus making him a high-upside player for the future.

Derek Carr has been up and down this year, and may still have a lot left to prove from a fantasy football QB1 perspective. Draft him with caution, as he hasn’t been a top 10 fantasy QB in 2017… but know he has the ability to be a top 7-10 fantasy football QB if he develops like I think he can.

Jimmy Garoppolo will paint a picture of his future soon, as he is just getting going late in the 2017 fantasy football season. He has a real chance at being a top 10 fantasy football QB of the future, but the 49ers will have to surround him with more talent this coming off-season. Time will tell if they deliver.

Potentially On The Decline

Drew Brees has truly disappointed fantasy football worlds in 2017, as he is, as of Week 14, ranking well outside the top 10 fantasy football QBs. The thing is, he has played well and commanded that Saints offense well, as the Saints have been one of the best teams in football this season… but, the team has transformed into a rushing-driven monster, so Brees has shifted into a game manager, which crushes his fantasy football upside. Still, he can’t yet be considered a QB that has fallen off talent wise, so he will likely turn into a value grab QB in 2018 drafts (in all formats, too). He comes with risk that he again isn’t passing as much as he use to, but I think for another year or so, he will still have the talent to be elite, so he will kind of be a dormant-in-waiting top 5 fantasy QB.

Philip Rivers will be 37 heading into the 2018 fantasy football season, and he has been up and down this year. Lately, he has scored big, but he is ranking somewhere in the 9-11 overall QB range through Week 13. It’s safe to consider him a top 10-15QB in 2018 and I think it’s also safe to look at Rivers no more than one season out at a time.

Alex Smith has been up and down in 2017, but his recent ‘down’ play had many thinking he would be on a short leash heading into Weeks 13-17. However, in Week 13, Smith had a huge game, so his place as the team’s starter for the remainder of 2017 seems secure. However, Patrick Mahomes has monster upside heading into the future. Will he get a chance to start in 2018? Maybe, maybe not… time will tell. Mahomes could be a rising star, though. Know that!

Ben Roethlisberger has talked about retirement in the past, and he started off in awful fashion in early 2017. His future is very much in question.

Matt Ryan dropped off big-time in 2017. His place in the elite fantasy QBs no longer exists.

Week 14 Adds

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Week 13 Adds

WAIT! You have TWO simple options.

Why SleeperU? View our features in action below!

Rankings

“These Rankings are Flippin’ AWESOME!” -Coolhand


Start Bench Calculator

“I’m seriously impressed with everything about this site.” – Sean, July 2016

Use Start Bench Calculator!

Trade Calculator

“The INSTANT Start & Sit Advice helps me win leagues!” -Jeremy W.

Mock Drafts

“INCREDIBLE Fantasy Football Rankings and Tools!” -BWags


2018 Mock Draft

2018 Mock Draft

Redraft, PPR | Early 2018 fantasy football mock draft | 11-16-2017

    Round One

  1. Le’veon Bell (RB)
  2. David Johnson (RB)
  3. Ezekiel Elliott (RB)
  4. Todd Gurley (RB)
  5. Antonio Brown (WR)
  6. Kareem Hunt (RB)
  7. Odell Beckham (WR)
  8. Leonard Fournette (RB)
  9. Aj Green (WR)
  10. Julio Jones (WR)
  11. Aaron Rodgers (QB)
  12. Melvin Gordon (RB)
  13. Round Two

  14. Carson Wentz (QB)
  15. Deshaun Watson (QB)
  16. Mike Evans (WR)
  17. Deandre Hopkins (WR)
  18. Michael Thomas (WR)
  19. Jordan Howard (RB)
  20. Devonta Freeman (RB)
  21. Christian Mccaffrey (RB)
  22. Alvin Kamara (RB)
  23. Lesean Mccoy (RB)
  24. Brandin Cooks (WR)
  25. Travis Kelce (TE)
  26. Round Three

  27. Tom Brady (QB)
  28. Drew Brees (QB)
  29. Rob Gronkowski (TE)
  30. Jay Ajayi (RB)
  31. Ty Hilton (WR)
  32. Amari Cooper (WR)
  33. Carlos Hyde (RB)
  34. Corey Davis (WR)
  35. Tyreek Hill (WR)
  36. Tevin Coleman (RB)
  37. Joe Mixon (RB)
  38. Derrick Henry (RB)
  39. Round Four

  40. Dez Bryant (WR)
  41. Dalvin Cook (RB)
  42. Doug Baldwin (WR)
  43. Demarco Murray (RB)
  44. Dak Prescott (QB)
  45. Russell Wilson (QB)
  46. Juju Smith-schuster (WR)
  47. Keenan Allen (WR)
  48. Stefon Diggs (WR)
  49. Mark Ingram (RB)
  50. Jordy Nelson (WR)
  51. Davante Adams (WR)
  52. Round Five

  53. Michael Crabtree (WR)
  54. Josh Gordon (WR)
  55. Alshon Jeffery (WR)
  56. Derek Carr (QB)
  57. Kirk Cousins (QB)
  58. Andrew Luck (QB)
  59. Kelvin Benjamin (WR)
  60. Sammy Watkins (WR)
  61. Adam Thielen (WR)
  62. Demaryius Thomas (WR)
  63. Jamison Crowder (WR)
  64. Cam Newton (QB)

Just missed: Greg Olsen, Tarik Cohen, Jarvis Landry, Allen Robinson, Jordan Reed, Aaron Jones, Jameis Winston, Ty Montgomery, Emmanuel Sanders, Lamar Miller, Alex Collins, Delanie Walker and more.

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Round One Analysis

As of today, November 16th, 2017, I think it’s safe to say that all four of LeVeon Bell, David Johnson, Ezekiel Elliott and Todd Gurley make a strong case for the 1.01 heading into super-early 2018 fantasy football mock drafts. Despite kind of an up-and-down year, one could certainly argue that Antonio Brown still has 1.01 value. And, I agree. Keep in mind, we are still talking redraft and PPR. Johnson (injury) and Elliott (suspension) are harder to trust coming off disappointing 2017 campaigns, so Bell and Gurley, assuming both play strong through Week 16 this season, could feel the safest heading into early mock drafts come January, 2018. In the end, though, when push comes to shove in August 2018, I expect, if healthy, both Johnson and Bell will firmly settle into the 1.01 and 1.02 value. No matter what, there are five amazing options in picks 1-5 in 2018. That’s the real takeaway here.

So, past those five, Odell Beckham, Kareem Hunt, Leonard Fournette, AJ Green and Julio Jones seem to have 1.06 – 1.10 on lock, and aside from the order of those five within that 6-10 overall, it’s a pretty clear-cut top 10 overall heading into 2018 (so far).

From 10 on, that’s where things get interesting and likely very all over the map from one perspective to another. I myself love Melvin Gordon, despite his ups and downs here in 2018. Now, this can change, as it’s only Week 11 as of this write-up. Things can change in either direction, though. As of today, many doubt him, so my guess is his ADP, if we were to calculate it as of this very moment, would be near the 1.10-2.04 range. If he finishes strong in Weeks 11-16, he could easily climb a handful of spots higher. I think Aaron Rodgers needs to be waited on and not take in the top 12 overall (in most formats), but I think his value is in that 10-12 overall range. So, let him fall, but know that value-wise, you’re likely getting a top 10-12 overall value in Rodgers in 2018.

Round Two Analysis

Carson Wentz is one of those players that will climb value boards a ton this coming off-season. Same thing goes for Deshaun Watson… these are the QBs of the future, and frankly, they are already here, so they are kind of the ‘now’ as well – already. I wouldn’t be shocked if this ranking seems high to some for both of these passers, but I bet they settle into this kind of value by April or May of 2018.

Mike Evans has taken a big hit and value this year, as Winston and the Bucs have struggled. He had top 4-8 overall value in PPR dynasty startups back in August, so if he falls even halfway into the 2nd-round next year in drafts, that’s a low-risk/high-reward situation brewing.

Deandre Hopkins is easily a top 1-5WR talent wise, and he is finally back in the elite top 5 performance wise, this coming off a horrible 2016 campaign. Some doubted his return to the elite top 5, but the development of Deshaun Watson has Hopkins’ locked into secure status. A QB makes all the difference in the world, look at Hopkins’ fall from elite last year… look at Mike Evans’ fall this year with QB instability. It’s important, and not many elite WRs have a better passer than Watson!

Michael Thomas could really develop in his next season. He has been steady and awesome through Week 11, but of course more TDs would have been nice through 11 games of the NFL season. He may pull those missing TD grabs in in Weeks 12-17, who knows, but my guess is that all our huge expectations were a touch early in 2017, but that doesn’t mean he won’t reach the heights many of us predicted.

Alvin Kamara, as predicted on our 2017 Bold Predictions, is a rising star. The question is, does he have top 12-14 overall value? Is he slotted in too low in this mock?

Jordan Howard, Devonta Freeman and Lesean Mccoy are all the riskiest players in this round. By far. Injury, age, situation, the risk is real.

Christian Mccaffrey looks like a strong 2nd-round PPR rusher heading into 2018, but his finish will determine a lot.

Round Three Analysis

Round Three Analysis Is Coming…

Week 11 Radio Show

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fantasy football smitty

Take a listen to Smitty’s Week 11 Fantasy Football Advice on “The Red Zone” Fantasy Football Radio Show, which is arguably the world’s longest-running fantasy football radio show. This week, Smitty and Russ Bliss (host) discuss these Week 11 topics:

  • Carson Wentz, Tevin Coleman, Nate Peterman, Patrick Mahomes and more
  • Buy-Low, Sell-High Week 11
  • Waiver Wire Adds
  • Breakouts, Sleepers, Busts and more

Listen Now To Week 11 Show (11/16/17 WED Show)

Patrick Mahomes a stud?

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Rankings

“These Rankings are Flippin’ AWESOME!” -Coolhand


Start Bench Calculator

“I’m seriously impressed with everything about this site.” – Sean, July 2016

Use Start Bench Calculator!

Trade Calculator

“The INSTANT Start & Sit Advice helps me win leagues!” -Jeremy W.

Mock Drafts

“INCREDIBLE Fantasy Football Rankings and Tools!” -BWags


Week 11 Adds

WAIT! You have TWO simple options.

Why SleeperU? View our features in action below!

Rankings

“These Rankings are Flippin’ AWESOME!” -Coolhand


Start Bench Calculator

“I’m seriously impressed with everything about this site.” – Sean, July 2016

Use Start Bench Calculator!

Trade Calculator

“The INSTANT Start & Sit Advice helps me win leagues!” -Jeremy W.

Mock Drafts

“INCREDIBLE Fantasy Football Rankings and Tools!” -BWags